Bradley Effect?
With 10 percent of the precincts reporting, Obama is "only" winning Georgia by a margin of 55% to 41%. That's a whole hell of a lot less than the 75% to 25% suggested by exit polls. I don't know whether these are Clinton-friendly precincts that are reporting so far, but the wide gulf between the exits and the actual numbers worries me a bit. Are we seeing the phenomenon of white voters voting for the white candidate and then telling exit pollsters that they voted for the black candidate? If so, it could bode ill for Obama elsewhere in the country with regard to those phenomenal leaked exits.
P.S. Similarly, with 12% reporting, it's 50% to 48% Obama in Connecticut, whereas the leaked exits had Obama winning by 7.
Ouch!!
Could be bad for pollsters. Of course I never tell the whole truth when we get calls either. Polls annoy me.
Posted by: Gardner | Feb 5, 2008 8:38:33 PM
Or it could be bad for those who rely on leaked unweighted exit poll results despite being burned repeatedly for doing so in the past.
Will they/you never learn? :)
Posted by: Brian Foster | Feb 5, 2008 8:46:35 PM
Are we seeing the phenomenon of white voters voting for the white candidate and then telling exit pollsters that they voted for the black candidate?
Yeah, that's it. The racists whitey is still trying to keep the brother down.
It couldn't possibly be that people are less enamoured with Obama than you think and picked Clinton instead.
Posted by: | Feb 5, 2008 9:24:35 PM
Um, hi, don't be a jackass. I am NOT saying that Hillary's supporters are a bunch of racists. Further, I am NOT offering a substantive explanation for Hillary's support. I am simply trying to explain the apparent discrepancy between exit polls and actual numbers. That's ALL.
People who fall prey to the Bradley Effect are not necessarily racists. They may be voting for the white candidate because they feel she's genuinely the better candidate, but lying about it because they feel social pressure to vote for the black candidate just because he's black.
In this case, that social pressure may be made more severe by non-racial factors: Obama is the exciting candidate, the "change" candidate, the inspiring candidate, etc., whereas voting for Hillary is more of an unexciting choice that doesn't go over as well with your liberal buddies.
In any event, I am ABSOLUTELY NOT saying what you think I'm saying.
Posted by: Brendan Loy | Feb 5, 2008 9:31:22 PM