Birthday boy Loy clinches Super Tuesday contest

Nine days after Super Tuesday, Democratic Party officials in New Mexico announced today that Hillary Clinton won their state's primary -- which means that Joe Loy, who turned 60 today, is the overall winner of the Irish Trojan Super Tuesday Contest.

With only the Democrats Abroad result still outstanding, Loy is 38-of-44 in predicting the Democratic and Republican elections that were held on February 5. No one else is better than 36-of-44, so even if Loy gets Democrats Abroad wrong (he picked Obama), he'll still win the overall contest.

The Democrat-only contest, meanwhile, remains up in the air; Clinton's New Mexico win means that Loy is still alive to catch Ben Brown, but he needs Obama to win Dems Abroad.

If Clinton wins the Democrats Abroad caucuses, Brown will finish in a three-way tie for first place with Loy and Sam Cialek at 21-of-24 -- and Brown would win the tiebreaker, as explained here.

If, on the other hand, Obama wins, it'll be a two-way first-place tie at 22-of-24 between just Loy and Cialek, in which case Loy wins the tiebreaker, and would be the winner of both the overall contest and the Democratic contest.

Loy has gotten just two Democratic contests wrong (wrongly picking Obama in American Samoa and Clinton in Delaware), and he erred in just four GOP contests (wrongly picking Romney rather than Huckabee in Georgia and West Virginia, McCain rather than Huckabee in Tennessee, and Huckabee rather than McCain in Missouri).

Below, you can see the updated standings of all three contests. Note that each contestant's "tiebreaker" is listed regardless of whether it was actually needed to break any ties.

Combined prediction results
(Tiebreaker is how close they were to predicting Hillary Clinton's and John McCain's combined California delegate totals.)
1. Joe Loy - 38 (tiebreaker: 77)
2. Ben Brown - 36 (tiebreaker: 76)
3. Brendan Loy - 36 (tiebreaker: 64)
4. Hal Strickland - 35 (tiebreaker: 124)
5. Sam Cialek - 35 (tiebreaker: 95)
6. Andrew Bottom - 35 (tiebreaker: 85)
7. Derek - 33 (tiebreaker: 98)
8. Clete Andrews - 33 (tiebreaker: 95)
9. Alec - 32 (tiebreaker: 116)
10. Ernst - 31 (tiebreaker: 89)
11. Kay Torg - 31 (tiebreaker: 85)
12. John Norris Brown - 31 (tiebreaker: 60)
13. Brian Foster - 31 (tiebreaker: 110)
14. Tim McDonald - 29 (tiebreaker: 77)
15. tom - 29 (tiebreaker: 47)
16. Chris Carroll - 29 (tiebreaker: 36)
17. Marty West - 28 (tiebreaker: 111)
18. Dave Roberts - 28 (tiebreaker: 70)
19. Mike Wiser - 28 (tiebreaker: 152)
20. Jeff Morrison - 28 (tiebreaker: 56)
21. moepop - 27 (tiebreaker: 160)
22. Uncle Larry - 27 (tiebreaker: 88)
23. Mike Dagen - 26 (tiebreaker: 110)
24. Colin Pedicini - 25 (tiebreaker: 158)
25. BigSoph - 25 (tiebreaker: 70)
26. tom - 25 (tiebreaker: 20)
27. reptile347 - 24 (tiebreaker: 140)
28. thebeef - 24 (tiebreaker: 65)
29. Diane Lanning - 23 (tiebreaker: 115)
30. Paul Wyostk - 23 (tiebreaker: 96)
31. Mark Gardner - 23 (tiebreaker: 106)
32. Evan Johnson - 23 (tiebreaker: 81)
33. James Blunt - 23 (tiebreaker: 75)
34. JLR - 22 (tiebreaker: 138)
35. chazunga - 22 (tiebreaker: 120)
36. Jim_of_ToniAndJom - 22 (tiebreaker: 90)
37. Doug Mataconis - 22 (tiebreaker: 81)
38. Kat Palmore - 22 (tiebreaker: 112)
39. mculator - 22 (tiebreaker: 51)
40. Andy Shiner - 21 (tiebreaker: 88)
41. Randy Styles - 21 (tiebreaker: 66)
42. Becky Loy - 20 (tiebreaker: 42)
43. ALex - 20 (tiebreaker: 92)
44. Greg Beard - 18 (tiebreaker: 184)
45. MT Swanson - 18 (tiebreaker: 89)
46. Sam W - 17 (tiebreaker: 101)

Democratic prediction results
(Tiebreaker is how close they were to predicting Hillary Clinton's California delegate total.)
1. Joe Loy - 21 (tiebreaker: 17)
2. Sam Cialek - 21 (tiebreaker: 37)
3. Brendan Loy - 20 (tiebreaker: 8)
4. Ben Brown - 20 (tiebreaker: 16)
5. Alec - 19 (tiebreaker: 29)
6. Hal Strickland - 19 (tiebreaker: 47)
7. Andrew Bottom - 18 (tiebreaker: 14)
8. Clete Andrews - 18 (tiebreaker: 27)
9. Derek - 18 (tiebreaker: 35)
10. John Norris Brown - 17 (tiebreaker: 7)
11. Chris Carroll - 17 (tiebreaker: 28)
12. Ernst - 16 (tiebreaker: 9)
13. tom - 16 (tiebreaker: 17)
14. Kay Torg - 16 (tiebreaker: 47)
15. Brian Foster - 16 (tiebreaker: 53)
15. Mike Wiser - 16 (tiebreaker: 53)
17. Dave Roberts - 15 (tiebreaker: 32)
18. Colin Pedicini - 15 (tiebreaker: 56)
19. reptile347 - 15 (tiebreaker: 82)
20. Mike Dagen - 14 (tiebreaker: 7)
21. Mark Gardner - 14 (tiebreaker: 13)
21. Jeff Morrison - 14 (tiebreaker: 13)
23. BigSoph - 14 (tiebreaker: 32)
24. Jim_of_ToniAndJom - 13 (tiebreaker: 22)
25. Uncle Larry - 13 (tiebreaker: 54)
26. thebeef - 13 (tiebreaker: 57)
27. ALex - 13 (tiebreaker: 63)
28. moepop - 13 (tiebreaker: 82)
29. tom - 12 (tiebreaker: 8)
30. Tim McDonald - 12 (tiebreaker: 29)
31. Kat Palmore - 12 (tiebreaker: 34)
32. mculator - 12 (tiebreaker: 43)
32. Evan Johnson - 12 (tiebreaker: 43)
34. Randy Styles - 12 (tiebreaker: 48)
35. Doug Mataconis - 11 (tiebreaker: 15)
36. Marty West - 11 (tiebreaker: 41)
36. James Blunt - 11 (tiebreaker: 41)
38. chazunga - 11 (tiebreaker: 56)
39. Paul Wyostk - 10 (tiebreaker: 3)
40. Andy Shiner - 10 (tiebreaker: 27)
41. Becky Loy - 10 (tiebreaker: 29)
42. MT Swanson - 10 (tiebreaker: 37)
43. Sam W - 10 (tiebreaker: 73)
44. JLR - 10 (tiebreaker: 80)
45. Diane Lanning - 9 (tiebreaker: 37)
46. Greg Beard - 9 (tiebreaker: 91)

Republican prediction results
(Tiebreaker is how close they were to predicting John McCain's California delegate total.)
1. Tim McDonald - 17 (tiebreaker: 48)
2. Joe Loy - 17 (tiebreaker: 60)
3. Marty West - 17 (tiebreaker: 70)
4. Andrew Bottom - 17 (tiebreaker: 71)
5. Brendan Loy - 16 (tiebreaker: 56)
6. Ben Brown - 16 (tiebreaker: 60)
7. Hal Strickland - 16 (tiebreaker: 77)
8. Kay Torg - 15 (tiebreaker: 38)
9. Brian Foster - 15 (tiebreaker: 57)
10. Derek - 15 (tiebreaker: 63)
11. Clete Andrews - 15 (tiebreaker: 68)
12. Ernst - 15 (tiebreaker: 80)
13. Uncle Larry - 14 (tiebreaker: 34)
14. Jeff Morrison - 14 (tiebreaker: 43)
15. John Norris Brown - 14 (tiebreaker: 53)
16. Sam Cialek - 14 (tiebreaker: 58)
17. moepop - 14 (tiebreaker: 78)
17. Diane Lanning - 14 (tiebreaker: 78)
19. tom - 13 (tiebreaker: 12)
20. tom - 13 (tiebreaker: 30)
21. Dave Roberts - 13 (tiebreaker: 38)
22. Alec - 13 (tiebreaker: 87)
23. Paul Wyostk - 13 (tiebreaker: 93)
24. Chris Carroll - 12 (tiebreaker: 8)
25. James Blunt - 12 (tiebreaker: 34)
26. JLR - 12 (tiebreaker: 58)
27. Mike Wiser - 12 (tiebreaker: 99)
28. Mike Dagen - 12 (tiebreaker: 103)
29. thebeef - 11 (tiebreaker: 8)
30. BigSoph - 11 (tiebreaker: 38)
30. Evan Johnson - 11 (tiebreaker: 38)
32. Andy Shiner - 11 (tiebreaker: 61)
33. chazunga - 11 (tiebreaker: 64)
34. Doug Mataconis - 11 (tiebreaker: 66)
35. mculator - 10 (tiebreaker: 8)
36. Becky Loy - 10 (tiebreaker: 13)
37. Kat Palmore - 10 (tiebreaker: 78)
38. Colin Pedicini - 10 (tiebreaker: 102)
39. Randy Styles - 9 (tiebreaker: 18)
40. reptile347 - 9 (tiebreaker: 58)
41. Jim_of_ToniAndJom - 9 (tiebreaker: 68)
42. Greg Beard - 9 (tiebreaker: 93)
42. Mark Gardner - 9 (tiebreaker: 93)
44. MT Swanson - 8 (tiebreaker: 52)
45. Sam W - 7 (tiebreaker: 28)
46. ALex - 7 (tiebreaker: 29)

Comments

[Marty West]

Woo hoo! Go politics!!

[Joe Loy]

I'm very Honored & Humbled to have won the prestigious & pivotal Irishtrojan Superpooper Caucus for the Best Overalls ~ a precioussss Birthdaypresent which has prompted the mightiest Celebration since the day Mrs. Murphy inadvertently discovered the Interstate Commerce Clause in her Chowder at the Boardinghouse, thus Exceeding Expectations :}. I want to Thank all my loyal Friends & Supporters & most especially my dedicated Votecounters in New Mexico, to whom the Checks will be in the mail just as soon as the next wave of Campaign contributions comes in ;]. Now it's on to Democrats Abroad, right after my lucrative Lecture gigs in the Cayman Islands & the Outer Hebrides ;}.