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I'm Brendan Loy, a 26-year-old graduate of USC and Notre Dame now living and working in Knoxville, Tennessee. My wife Becky and I are brand-new parents of a beautiful baby girl, born on New Year's Eve.

I'm a big-time sports fan, a politics, media & law junkie, an astronomy buff, a weather nerd, an Apple aficionado, a Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter fanatic, and an all-around dork. My blog is best-known for its coverage of Hurricane Katrina, but I blog about anything and everything that interests me.

You can contact me at irishtrojan [at] gmail.com, or donate to my "tip jar" by clicking the link below:

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February 15, 2008

Who will Michigan's Uncommitted delegates be?

By Brendan Loy

If the Democratic presidential race goes all the way to the convention, and if Michigan's disputed delegation is ultimately seated, an absolutely crucial question will be the identities and loyalties of the state's 55 "Uncommitted" delegates.

Hillary, you may recall, won 73 delegates to Uncommitted's 55 in the January 15 Yooper Tuesday primary. "Uncommitted" was basically a proxy for Obama and Edwards, who weren't on the ballot. The substantial majority of "Uncommitted" voters, it's safe to say, were Obama supporters -- but that doesn't necessarily mean Uncommitted's delegates will be Obama loyalists.

Their loyalties are very important to determine, though. If all 55 of 'em are de facto Obama delegates, Hillary only gets an 18-vote boost from seating Michigan's delegation, which might not be enough to salvage her nomination chances. But suppose they're evenly split; suppose half of them are actually Clinton loyalists. Then Hillary's Michigan advantage becomes a huge, huge deal mathematically. (In that scenario, 73-55 would turn into something like 100-28.) So I decided to do a little research into the process by which these delegates will be selected.

Continue reading "Who will Michigan's Uncommitted delegates be?" »

Pelosi to supers: respect the voters

By Brendan Loy

House Speaker (and superdelegate extraordinaire) Nancy Pelosi says the superdelegates should follow the will of the voters, not override their verdict -- and also, that Michigan and Florida's delegations should not be seated.

P.S. Pelosi will chair the convention in Denver. I'm not sure how much actual power that gives her, but it certainly lends at least a bit -- and maybe a lot -- of additional significance to her statement.

Hackett out for UCLA, maybe for season

By Brendan Loy

The possibly season-ending injury to Daniel Hackett isn't just potentially devastating for the USC Trojans' hopes of making some serious noise this month and next. It's also potentially devastating to my hopes of forcing Mike Tran to wear a USC sweatshirt and do the victory sign in front of Tommy Trojan, and capture it all on camera for posterity -- as he'll be required to do, per the terms of our bet, if USC beats UCLA at the Galen Center on Sunday night.

Alas, Hackett will definitely be out for at least that game, and probably much more. (Hopefully O.J. Mayo will still be able to play, at least. Good grief.) Meanwhile, injured Bruins guard Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will probably be back.

If the Trojans win on Sunday (FSN, 10:00 PM EST), it would guarantee that I win the season-series bet, and Mike would have to get me the glorious above-described photo by March 1. If the Bruins win, there's no immediate winner of the season-series bet, though either Mike or I could still win it if the teams meet again in the Pac-10 tournament.

Sunday-night sky show

By Brendan Loy

If the current mission schedule for the Space Shuttle Atlantis remains unchanged, much of the continental U.S. will have an opportunity to watch the Shuttle and the International Space Station fly overhead Sunday night as two distinct, bright dots, moving briskly across the evening sky in tandem -- two unmistakable beacons of the human presence in space. Just over 12 hours removed from their Sunday-morning undocking, they should be a very cool sight to behold.

Trust me: even if you're not into dorky stuff like Iridium flares, this is well worth a trip outside at the proper time, if the sky is clear. (And you don't need to be in a low-light-pollution location to see them. They're very bright. So long as you're not standing, like, directly under a streetlight or something, you should be able to see them, even from downtown in a major city. Basically, if you can see Venus, you can see the ISS and Shuttle.)

There are two viewing opportunities for the U.S. on Sunday evening: the first between 6:57 and 7:04 PM EST -- visible from much of the eastern half of the country -- and the second from 8:27 to 8:35 PM EST (that's 6:27-6:35 MST) -- visible from most of the Mountain Time Zone, and parts of the Central and Western time zones as well.

To find out if and when the flyovers will be visible from your particular location, go to Heavens-Above and select your location. When you get to the "Main Menu," click on "10 day predictions for: ISS" and look for the "17 Feb" entry (or entries) on the list. Click on it (or them), and you'll get all your local details, including precisely when and where in the sky to look. (The Shuttle will either be just behind the ISS or just ahead of it; I'm not sure which.)

Basically, though, the closer you are to the black lines in these graphics, the better your potential view is, provided it's after local sunset when the flyover occurs:

Don't pay much attention to the red circles; they just show the extent of potential satellite visibility, down to 10 degrees above the horizon, from the central location on each map. The circles would look different from other spots and at other times along the satellite's path. So what you really want to focus on is the black line, and how close you are to it. The closer you are, the brighter and more directly overhead the satellites will be. (Again, the other issue is the timing of sunset; the Pacific coast won't get a good view because the sun will still be up.)

But really, don't bother trying to speculate based on those maps -- seriously, just go to Heavens-Above and get the details for your specific location. :)

Here in Knoxville, we're pretty darn close to the black line for the earlier flyover, and as a result, we get a really great view: the ISS will have a magnitude of -2.1 (lower magnitudes are brighter; -2.1 is brighter than anything in the night sky except Venus and the Moon) and will reach an altitude of 67 degrees at 6:59:54 PM EST. Oh, and it'll pass directly through Orion about 35 seconds later.

(Unfortunately, the weather forecast for Knoxville looks less than promising at the moment. I hope it changes!)

The view is even better from Nashville, which is almost literally right on the center line, so there the ISS will reach an max altitude of 85° -- and a stunning magnitude of -2.5 -- at 5:59:23 PM CST.

A few other potential locations of interest to Irish Trojan readers: Phoenix (magnitude -1.9, altitude 39° in the NE sky at 6:30:38 MST), Denver (magnitude -0.3, altitude 28° in the SW sky at 6:30:37 MST), South Bend (magnitude -0.6, altitude 33° in the SW sky at 6:58:28 EST), Memphis (magnitude -2.1, altitude 46° in the NE sky at 5:59:00 CST), Atlanta (magnitude -2.5, altitude 74°, almost directly overhead -- right near Mars -- at 7:00:14 EST), Indianapolis (magnitude -1.3, altitude 45° in the SW sky at 6:58:49 EST), St. Louis (magnitude -2.5, altitude 88°, directly overhead at 5:58:22 CST, which is 17 minutes after local sunset), Washington, D.C. (a comparatively dim magnitude 0.4, altitude 19 in the SW sky at 7:00:17 EST; Virginia suburbs will be marginally better).

Oh, and in Southern California, although both of the flyovers mentioned here will occur before local sunset, you may be able to catch a glimpse in the southwestern sky (max altitude 19°) of the next flyover, over the Pacific Ocean, at 7:05 PM PST. The magnitude will only be 0.3, though, a little dimmer than Mars, so light pollution could be a problem.

Anyway... all of this is subject to change, particularly the precise schedule details, if the ISS's orbit gets tweaked a bit between now and then. Also, the undocking schedule could change; if it's delayed, and thus the Shuttle is still docked on Sunday night, then it and the ISS will appear as a single bright dot moving across the sky, which, while still pretty cool, is a much more commonplace occurrence.

However, assuming the undocking schedule remains relatively unchanged, I highly encourage everybody in range of this flyover to check it out Sunday night.

Wisconsin as a mini-Ohio?

By Brendan Loy

Makes sense to me. Although, don't tell it to Badger fans.

UPDATE: Is Obama really winning Texas? [But cf., Derek's comment. He says ARG, the company whose poll shows Obama leading, sucks.]

P.S. Peggy Noonan sums up Hillary Clinton's week. It's been a doozy.

Meanwhile, Michael Gerson explains why Hillary is losing: "Clinton's largest problem is not a lack of money or public enthusiasm. It is the lack of a compelling narrative for her campaign."

Most successful presidential runs eventually have an overarching theory: the generational ambitions of John Kennedy's "New Frontier," the rising cultural resentments of Richard Nixon's "Silent Majority," the reviving national confidence of Ronald Reagan's "Morning in America."

Obama's appeal is straightforward: getting beyond "the ideological battles that have consumed us for the last 20 years" -- in which Clinton and her husband have been two of the main combatants.

Hillary Clinton's attempt to define a narrative of her own has been hobbled because her campaign is defined by the rejection of rhetoric. Obama's eloquence and idealism are dismissed as "abstract" and a "fairy tale" in contrast to Clinton's experience and policy substance. It is difficult for a campaign to inspire while using "inspiration" as an epithet.

Gerson also notes that the "experience and policy substance" argument is further hobbled because "Clinton has had little actual experience running anything, and that the "argument for experience comes at an odd time, when Americans are generally disillusioned with both Democrats and Republicans in Washington." But, he argues, the other possible Hillary narratives are also fatally flawed: Hillary the Fighter ("it is hard to imagine American voters thinking: 'If only the Clintons were a little more ruthless, I'd finally support them'"), Hillary the Comeback Kid ("when you lose a lot, you eventually look like a loser") and Hillary the Tested ("it is not enough to be vetted. The goal is to be vetted and found clean"). He concludes:

Though it is increasingly unlikely, Clinton may still have a path to the nomination -- and what a path it is. She merely has to puncture the balloon of Democratic idealism; sully the character of a good man; feed racial tensions within her party; then eke out a win with the support of unelected superdelegates, thwarting the hopes of millions of new voters who would see an inspiring young man defeated by backroom arm-twisting and arcane party rules.

Unlikely -- but it would be a fitting contribution to the Clinton legacy of monumental selfishness.

Indeed.

Supers and spin

By Brendan Loy

Josh Marshall:

The Clinton camp's super delegate gambit is not only audacious. Far more than that it is simply unrealistic. The super delegates who are gettable for Clinton by loyalty, conviction or coercion are already got. And enough's been seen of both candidates for everyone to be more than acquainted with them. The ones who remain -- who make up roughly half the total -- are waiting to see who the winner is.

The truth is that there are over 1000 elected delegates remain to be won. We really don't know what's going to happen yet. But if the trend continues and Obama ends the primary season with a clear majority of elected delegates, the idea that those remaining super delegates will break for the candidate who won fewer delegates, raised less money and is polling worse against the Republican nominee simply makes no sense.

He goes on to cite this as another example of Hillary's people, particularly chief strategist Mark Penn, putting out "spin" that's downright laughable. Good spin, Marshall says, involves "clever and forward-leaning pitches of actual realities, facts." What's been coming out of Team Hillary, by contrast, are "not sharp 'spins' on favorable realities, but aggressive pitches of complete nonsense."

More delegate math

By Brendan Loy

The New York Times has a fantastic delegate graphic today. Of particular interest to me are the stats for where the delegate count would be without proportional allocation: Obama 1,096-1,075 in a winner-take-all system by state, or Obama 1,138-1,033 in a WTA-by-district system. Fascinating.

UPDATE: It's a couple of days old, and it's long, but here's an interesting post about the delegate situation and the state of the race.

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