Irish Trojan in Tennessee

The speeches

By Brendan Loy

I thought Obama's victory speech tonight was one of his better recent efforts. It was less repetitive of earlier speeches, pithier and faster-paced, and less self-referential than his discomfiting, almost messianic "we are the change we seek" speech on Super Tuesday.

As for the other candidates' remarks: I only caught a brief snippet of McCain's speech before duty called (Loyette needed a diaper change), but it seemed like a pretty hard-hitting frontal assault on Democratic/liberal policies. And Clinton's speech was... um, I think the word would be grating. I kept thinking, "this speech would sound good if Obama were giving it." :)

Video clips here.

P.S. TNR's Jonathan Cohn calls it Obama's "best speech yet":

Compared to his early speeches, he's far more deft at weaving policy into his promises of movement-building. ... [W]here he used to talk about change for change's sake, now he talks about specific changes -- and how he intends to build a popular mandate for those changes. ...

Towards the end of the speech, he returned to his theme of "yes we can" -- but in a way different than I had heard before. (Again, maybe he's been doing this lately and I just missed it.) He tied that theme to all the great movements in American history -- the revolutionaries who fought the British for independence, the abolitionists who crusaded against slavery, the Greatest Generation who served in World War II, the Civil Rights movement, and so on. Not only did this cloak his ideas in the mantle of patriotism, which is always a good thing, but linked them -- once again -- to tangible, pivotal changes in American life, which is precisely what his campaign needs to be promising.

It was a good speech.

On Wisconsin?

By Brendan Loy

CNN's John King gets the Wisconsin-as-Hillary's-mini-firewall meme going:

Key quote: "The Clinton campaign has to build a firewall. They say Ohio and Texas. Well, what about Wisconsin? That's a week from today. ... If [Obama] can win Wisconsin next week, there are a lot of Democrats who think the trap door may open under Senator Clinton eventually."

Look for this to become conventional wisdom within the next 24-48 hours.

UPDATE: Or not. It seems Hillary isn't even travelling to Wisconsin until Saturday.

I guess the test of my theory will be whether she's forced to change her schedule by an escalating sense that she must win, or at least do well in, Wisconsin. But the very fact of her schedule may prevent that CW from coalescing in the first place.

UPDATE 2: The Washington Post's Anne Kornblut looks at the same schedule and draws a different conclusion, citing the fact that Hillary is going to Wisconsin at all -- albeit not until Saturday --  as proof that she's "making a play for Wisconsin in hopes of scoring at least one more victory this month."

UPDATE 3: Halperin's headline: "The Fight for the Badger State." He writes, "Despite campaign intentions to focus on Texas, Ohio, Clinton now plans to stay in Wisconsin Saturday through Tuesday’s primary."

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects that Barack Obama will win the Maryland Democratic primary; John McCain the GOP winner.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects that John McCain will win the Virginia GOP primary.

No Huck-a-shock

By Brendan Loy

"CNN can now project that John McCain will -- will -- win the state of Virginia." --Wolf Blitzer

It'll be closer than expected, but that doesn't matter. Virginia is winner-take-all. McCain gets all 63 delegates. As far as I'm concerned, this effectively ends any realistic chance of Huck stopping him from reaching the magic number to clinch the nomination.

Any such "chance" was a major stretch anyway, of course. But now McCain will be around 810 delegates by the end of the night by the Green Papers' count -- assuming he wins D.C. and Maryland -- which will put him within ~380 of the magic number (1,191), with more than 1,100 delegates still to be allocated. He now only needs to win barely a third of the remaining delegates. He can do that in his sleep.

Delegate math

By Brendan Loy

Virginia has eleven congressional districts; Maryland has eight. There are six 4-delegate districts (VA-1, VA-2, VA-5, VA-6, VA-9, MD-6), five 5-delegate districts (VA-4, VA-7, VA-10, MD-1, MD-2), five 6-delegate districts (VA-3, VA-11, MD-3, MD-5, MD-7), and three 7-delegate districts (VA-8, MD-4, MD-8).

Virginia results by district are here. After the jump, I look at the delegate math for each type of district.

Maryland polls extended till 9:30 PM

By Brendan Loy

Due to bad weather.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects that Barack Obama will win the Virginia Democratic primary; McCain, Huckabee in competitive race.

CNN calls VA for Obama, not McCain

By Brendan Loy

WOOO!!! Huck-a-shock?!?

Based on the exit polls, they can immediately call it for Obama at 7:00 PM, but the GOP race is "competitive."

Thoughts on the Dem race

By Brendan Loy

TPM Cafe contributor FlyOnTheWall, whose blogging is consistently excellent, has some very insightful, forward-looking thoughts on the Democratic race. Three of the best:

4) It may be this week; it may be next; it may not be until March. But sooner or later, the Clinton campaign is going to have to face the reality that the Michigan and Florida delegations aren't going to be seated, and that they can't win the convention without them. When it does, we'll see a dramatic shift in strategy. The Clintons will join the DNC in pressing for caucuses (the formal name for any party-run election, no matter its mechanics). And when they do, Obama's not going to be able to stop them. If Obama can't pull off an upset in OH, TX or PA, it's likely that the campaign will come down to these final two contests. And ironic - the political advantage state leaders failed to achieve by moving their contests forward may well be theirs if they agree to reschedule them all the way at the end of the calendar. ...

6) Will becoming the frontrunner help or hurt Obama? The Potomac Primaries offer an interesting test case. If he can prevail better than 60-40, it's probably a sign that Hillary's base is starting to get discouraged and stay home. But if his margin is smaller than the (incredibly flawed) polls presently predict, we may see Hillary trying to sell the comeback narrative again. Taking the overall lead among delegates is a similarly fraught achievement - its major benefits accrue only if Obama can retain that lead. Otherwise, the media may embrace a narrative of shifting momentum. ...

8) After Wisconsin, we hit a long, empty stretch. For the first time, Obama will feel the heat of national media scrutiny that he imagines he's already endured. How well will he hold up? Can he maintain his momentum?

I've been pondering points #6 and #8 (which are closely related), and had been planning to blog about them myself, but FlyOnTheWall expresses them better than I would have. And I hadn't even thought of point #4, but it's brilliant.

By the way, in addition to recommending FlyOnTheWall, I also recommend the blog 2008 Democratic Convention Watch for all your delegate-counting needs. Both sites will be added to my blogroll shortly.

Democrats Abroad caucuses end tonight

By Brendan Loy

In addition to the Beltway primaries, the Democrats Abroad caucuses are scheduled to end today. I have no idea when the tally will be announced, but assuming it's known before Friday -- which is the deadline for the still-ongoing New Mexico count -- the Dems Abroad result will clinch one of the two still-undetermined Irish Trojan Super Tuesday Prediction Contests, while leaving the other hinging on New Mexico's tally. Details after the jump.

It's hard to believe...

By Brendan Loy

...that the South Carolina primary was only 2 1/2 weeks ago, isn't it? (The photo, BTW, is of the 2004 election poster in my office. Oh, sweet politics, how do I love thee...)

Majoring in miracles

By Brendan Loy

If this isn't a sign of an impending Huck-a-shock (or Huck-a-miracle, if you will), I don't know what is.

Fool me once...

By Brendan Loy

Will Virginia be New Hampshire Redux?

It does feel a bit that way. Now, as then, everyone is assuming that the only question is what Obama's margin will be. Now, as then, there is talk of an "epic blowout."

Will the sense of inevitability surrounding his chances of victory -- and the assumption that "high turnout" equals "big Obama win" -- actually be justified this time?

We shall see. I'll believe it when I see it, this time. And I don't care if the leaked exit polls show Obama up 95% to 5%. I want real numbers, dammit. Or at least a media "call." :)

P.S. In other news, Ron Paul is facing reality.

P.P.S. Back on the Democratic side, a Texas blogger offers what TNR's Michael Crowley calls an "incredibly thorough, district-by-district, demographic-based analysis" of the March 4 Texas primary, which concludes that "even a 5-point Hillary win in the statewide vote could leave Obama with a slight delegate advantage (thanks in part to Texas's screwy primary-caucus hybrid system)."

Meanwhile, more evidence of the Cult of Obama: fainting in the aisles.

P.P.P.S. Here's a good roundup of developments and musings on the Democratic race.

And here's a good observation from Politico's Ben Smith: "It's still a long month, and things can change. Having succumbed to conventional wisdom and more or less written Clinton off already after Iowa, I think I'll hold the obit this time."

Smith also links to a pro-Obama site which "mak[es] a case that seems to be gaining acceptance: That the more important count is the count of pledged delegates," and that therefore, superdelegates shouldn't be included in the overall delegate totals. This is absolutely true, as I mentioned yesterday, and I'm not just saying that because I support Obama over Clinton. It's all well and good to keep track of the currently "committed" superdelegates, but the principal "scoreboard" ought to be the pledged-delegate-only count, because they're the only ones whose votes are actually, truly "committed" to anyone (for the first two ballots anyway). The common practice of combining supers and non-supers into an undifferentiated numerical mass serves only to confuse the issue.

Oh, and about those superdelegates, Smith notes that there are actually now 794 of 'em, not 796. (Apropos of which, R.I.P., Super-Superdelegate Lantos.)

Anecdotal turnout report: Virginia

By Brendan Loy

In comments, Old Dominion readers report high, pro-Obama turnout at their Northern Virginia polling places this morning -- and intrepid Irish Trojan correspondent dcl notes that Obama is also doing well among the important cute-blonde-girls-at-bars demographic. I say this trend demands further research. Any volunteers? ;)

Enter my Oscar pool! (take 2)

By Brendan Loy

Yesterday's technical difficulties have (apparently) been resolved, so you should now be able to enter my Oscar Pool without incident.

(Thus far, I've received picks from David K. and Victoria W. If there anyone else entered the pool yesterday, I suspect I may yet receive your picks; it often takes mail servers a while to distribute backlogged messages after a meltdown. But you might want to e-mail me or leave a comment letting me know that you entered, so I can be on the lookout for your picks.)

Can Huckabee do it?

By Brendan Loy

Josh Marshall looks at the possibility of a Huckabee upset tonight in Virginia. He concludes that "there's at least a chance." But Marshall fails to mention the most crucial element of the Huck-a-shock formula: the crossover vote. As I've noted before, Virginia's primaries and completely open to both parties, and with the Democratic race dominating the headlines, I suspect that a lot of McCain's natural supporters in the Beltway area will follow the lead of Doug Mataconis and Joe Mama, and vote in the Democratic primary (most of them, like Mataconis and Mama, for Obama). I further suspect that most of Mike Huckabee's natural supporters will not do this. :) The crossover effect is Huckabee's golden ticket -- it is, quite simply, the reason he might have a chance to pull the upset tonight.

Marshall also fails to mention the critical reason why Virginia is so important: it's winner-take-all, and it's worth 63 delegates. If McCain wins it, it'll give him more than one-eighth of the 490 additional delegates that he needs to clinch the nomination. On the other hand, if Huckabee wins it, he'll increase his current delegate total by a whopping 29%, and the possibility that he could stop McCain from getting an outright majority will start to look merely implausible instead of out-and-out impossible.

One thing Marshall does mention, which I hadn't realized, is that Survey USA polling shows Huck gaining a remarkable 19 points on McCain over the weekend, from a 57-27 deficit on Friday to just a 48-37 deficit yesterday. This suggests that Huck's strong performance in Saturday's contests is actually giving him something of a "bounce," perhaps simply because it established in the minds of some not-too-sold-on-McCain folks that he's a more plausible alternative than they thought.

Anyway, it'll be very interesting to see what happens tonight. McCain will presumably win all of D.C.'s 16 delegates and most, if not all, of Maryland's 34 (the only question being whether Huckabee can win any of the state's eight congressional districts -- the first and sixth CDs, maybe? -- and thus pick up a few delegates in multiples of 3). But all of that will be totally overshadowed if Huck can take Virginia.

P.S. On the other hand, Huckabee won West Virginia, and what are the odds of Virginia and West Virginia actually agreeing on something? :)