Irish Trojan in Tennessee

Has Pat Summitt endorsed?

By Brendan Loy

There will be an Obama rally outside Thompson-Boling Arena prior to tomorrow's Lady Vols game. Is nothing sacred? ;)

Speaking of Obama, TNR's Noam Scheiber makes an excellent point, one I hadn't thought of but wish I had, about how the post-Super Tuesday calendar favors Obama:

There's not a day on the primary calendar between Tuesday and the convention that has more than four contests scheduled. ... Obama tends to do better the more time he can focus on a specific state, [so] I see this slightly benefiting him.

I see it significantly benefiting him. The question, as Scheiber says, is whether Obama can "survive" Tuesday's mega-primary, the very nature of which doesn't suit his strengths. "Obama isn't playing for a win on Tuesday," he says, but rather "something that approximates a stalemate." Scheiber elaborates -- answering my question from yesterday -- that "I'd say that means carrying 8-10 states and 45 percent of the delegates up for grabs." Sounds about right to me, though I think 6 or 7 states might be enough, depending on which states they are. In any event, the perceptions game is very important in this regard. Obama doesn't need to "win" Super Tuesday, but he needs to do well enough to convince the media, and through them voters in later states -- and, especially, superdelegates -- that he's a viable candidate going forward, not just a one-hit wonder on the verge of flaming out.

Mitt wins Maine; McCain, Paul vie for 2nd

By Brendan Loy

Will Maine crush John McCain's evil heart? It looks like the state where Ross Perot beat George H. W. Bush is once again bucking conventional wisdom, giving Mitt Romney a convincing victory and throwing the nominee-presumptive-presumptive* into a dogfight for second place with Ron Paul:

Mitt Romney appeared to be on his way to a win in presidential preference voting by Maine Republicans as returns were counted Saturday from the party's municipal caucuses, turning the contest into a race for the No. 2 spot.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, had 52% of the vote with 57% of the towns holding caucuses reporting. John McCain trailed with 22%, Ron Paul was third with 19%, and Mike Huckabee had 5%. ...

Besides Paul, who visited Maine on Monday, Romney was the only candidate to show up or send a surrogate to campaign as the caususes drew close. His oldest son Tagg campaigned Friday and appeared at caucuses Saturday.

There are still some more caucuses to be held tomorrow -- it's a three-day event -- so Paul could still potentially pass McCain. But I don't think anyone is going to catch the Stormin' Mormon.

The question is, will this lead to a surge of Mitt-mentum that will carry Romney to a surprise showing on Tuesday? I doubt it. But hey, give the man credit: he's really good at winning these tiny caucuses that nobody else pays attention to. First we're going to go to Wyoming!! And then we're going to go to Maine!! And then we're going to Washington, D.C. to take back the White House!! YEAAAARRH!!!!!

P.S. I don't actually think John McCain has an evil heart. It's just a lyric from a silly song I like.

*He's not the nominee-presumptive yet, but it's presumed that he will become such after Tuesday's results come in. Hence, "nominee-presumptive-presumptive." :)

Obama vs. the Queen of Darkness

By Brendan Loy

Heh.

Hil-mentum?

By Brendan Loy

Today's updates from both Rasmussen and Gallup show a sudden reversal of the recent trend of Obama gaining ground nationally on Clinton. Here's Gallup's chart:

I guess a bunch of those undecided former Edwards voters suddenly finished their soul-searching and decided to go with Hilldog?

Meanwhile, CNN is reporting that John Edwards will not endorse before Tuesday. (Hat tip: Brian Foster.)

Enter my Super Tuesday contest!

By Brendan Loy

The first ever Irish Trojan Super Tuesday Prediction Contest (or if you prefer, Super Duper Pooper Scooper Trooper Blooper Tuesday Prediction Contest) is now online and accepting entries!

Just follow the link and submit your predictions. PLEASE NOTE: You may want to print your entry page before submitting it, as you won't automatically get a copy of your picks sent to you.

The deadline to enter is noon Tuesday. Details after the jump.

It's Groundhog Day!

By Brendan Loy

You can watch Punxsutawney Phil's big moment live via webcast starting at 7:00 AM EST.

Of course, as we all know, tradition dictates that if Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of competitive presidential primaries. If Phil doesn't see his shadow, Hillary and McCain will wrap up the nominations on Tuesday.

Or something like that.