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About me


I'm Brendan Loy, a 26-year-old graduate of USC and Notre Dame now living and working in Knoxville, Tennessee. My wife Becky and I are brand-new parents of a beautiful baby girl, born on New Year's Eve.

I'm a big-time sports fan, a politics, media & law junkie, an astronomy buff, a weather nerd, an Apple aficionado, a Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter fanatic, and an all-around dork. My blog is best-known for its coverage of Hurricane Katrina, but I blog about anything and everything that interests me.

You can contact me at irishtrojan [at] gmail.com, or donate to my "tip jar" by clicking the link below:

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« January 2008 | Main | March 2008 »

February 2008

Military snubs American plane maker

By David K.

The Air Force announced today that it has chosen Northrup Grumman, which is partnering with European airplane manufacturer Airbus -- rather than Boeing -- for its new fleet of mid-air refueling planes.

We're heading into an economic recession -- oh I'm sorry, I mean slowdown -- our ballooning national debt is being financed predominantly by Chinese banks, and now the Air Force is going to be sending billions of our tax dollars to Airbus.  I'm all for international trade and cooperation, but there'd better be some significant advantages to the Grumman/Airbus offering over the Boeing offering to justify this.

Cornell on verge of Big Dance

By Brendan Loy

Tomorrow night in Ithaca, New York at 7:00 PM, the Cornell men's basketball team, currently undefeated in Ivy League play, will host Harvard. Why am I mentioning this? Because if Cornell wins, they'll clinch this season's first automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament -- and will become the first Ivy League champion in 20 years not named Penn or Princeton.

Obama-Bloomberg '08?

By Brendan Loy

Hmm...

More here.

Hillary's self-pity

By Brendan Loy

Hillary Clinton: "Every so often I just wish that it were a little more of an even playing field, but, you know, I play on whatever field is out there."

Andrew Sullivan: "Is she f***ing kidding me? ... Clinton has more privilege, more clout, more intrinsic unearned advantages in this race than any non-incumbent Democrat in living memory. And still she failed. And still she whines. There are moments when you almost feel pity; and then you realize what a petty shameless narcissist she is."

This about sums up the Hillary Ad

By dcl

I can't comment without ruining it. Suffice to say, one of the more amusing campaign ad parodies ever. (Via John Gruber)

Clinton camp portrays March 4 as Obama firewall (!!)

By Brendan Loy

Hahahaha:

With an eleven state winning streak coming out of February, Senator Obama is riding a surge of momentum that has enabled him to pour unprecedented resources into Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. ...

If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there’s a problem.

Should Senator Obama fail to score decisive victories with all of the resources and effort he is bringing to bear, the message will be clear:

Democrats, the majority of whom have favored Hillary in the primary contests held to date, have their doubts about Senator Obama and are having second thoughts about him as a prospective standard-bearer.

LOL!! So Hillary can "win" on March 4 just by picking off one state from Obama?? And here y'all thought I was kidding when I said Rhode Island is the new firewall!

Oh, and as for the notion that "the majority of [Democrats] have favored Hillary in the primary contests held to date" ... that is about the most tortured piece of transparently bogus political spin I've ever heard in my life. It strings together, into a logically incoherent whole, the following four pieces of nonsensical Clintonian garbage, each of which is utterly untenable on its own:

1) Caucuses shouldn't count at all (not just "caucuses should count less than primaries" -- this goes much further than that, suggesting that the preferences of individual voters who happen to live in caucus states do not matter at all);

2) Michigan and Florida should count, even though the party definitively stripped those states of their influence for violating the rules, and even though all the candidates agreed in advance not to contest those states, and even though Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan, and even though, according to Hillary, caucuses states which followed the rules, and which both candidates did campaign in, shouldn't count (see above) -- I mean, just think about this: after signing a pledge to the voters of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada not to campaign in Florida and Michigan, she is now arguing that Iowa and Nevada don't matter, while Florida and Michigan do;

3) Independent and Republican voters don't matter, and their votes should be retroactively subtracted from the candidates' actual vote totals based on exit-poll estimates (more on that below), even though the local Democratic parties in many states consciously and deliberately choose to allow them to vote in Democratic primaries, and all candidates actively court their votes, and you can't win a general election without their support; and

4) Exit polls are completely accurate and can be fairly used to definitively assess -- for purposes of determining the rightful nominee -- candidates' relative strength among "Democrats" and "non-Democrats" (even though registered Democrats often self-identify as indepedents, and vice versa, so even if the exit polls were 100% statistically accurate, they'd still be wrong).

The absolute lunacy of this Hillaryland spin is beyond staggering. At this point, there are just no words for it. These people are living in an alternate universe. The nonsense they put out seriously has no relation whatsoever to reality. It is... Just. F***ing. Ridiculous.

P.S. By the end of this campaign, I wouldn't be surprised if Team Clinton is putting out press releases touting the fact that Hillary Clinton has won 100% of the vote among voters who voted for Hillary Cilnton. That's how circular and self-serving their spin is becoming. It's like they say, "Let's see what logically incoherent combination of criteria we can concoct to prove that Hillary's winning the nomination." At what point will they realize it's time to give up? At what point will the empress finally recognize that she has no clothes?

Ricin found at Vegas hotel

By Brendan Loy

No CNN Breaking News alert for this?

Police in Las Vegas, Nevada, are investigating the discovery of what they said is the deadly poison ricin in a hotel room.

Preliminary tests show the substance is ricin, authorities said, but other tests to confirm it are under way. ...

Authorities were called to an Extended Stay America hotel around 3 p.m. PT Thursday after a man brought a bag with a small container to the manager's office. The man said he found it while retrieving items from a hotel room.

The substance is "100 percent ricin," [police captain Joe] Lombardo said.

The FBI says it sees no link to terrorism. I love how they always say that, even before anyone has any idea what's going on. "We don't know who did this, or why, in fact we have no clue what's going on, but we see no link to terrorism." Not that I'm suggesting it is linked to terrorism, I just think sometimes the denials are premature. (Then again, it doesn't help that the media asks the question about everything. "Excuse me, Mr. FBI Spokesman? Joan Smith's house in Paducah, Kentucky just burned down. Do you suspect a link to terrorism?")

Hillary: vote for me or I'll sue!

By Brendan Loy

If Hillary Clinton loses in Texas because of the state's bizarre primary-caucus hybrid, will she file a lawsuit challenging the process? (Hat tip: Joe Mama.)

Her campaign has truly become a shining exemplar of unintentional self-parody and self-destructiveness.  It's like they honestly don't understand how they look, pulling one self-serving stunt like this after another.

At some point, Hilldog, you've gotta recognize that there's a process, there are rules, and while they may be deeply imperfect, they are what they are, they're decided beforehand, everybody knows about them in advance (or, if not, it's their own damn fault for not paying attention), and you can't change them in the middle of the game because you don't like the (potential) outcome. Good grief.

Happy Leap Day!

By Brendan Loy

It's February 29!

Some people today are celebrating their first birthdays since John Kerry was a presidential candidate. (Quite a few, actually. Apparently there are about 4.5 million Leap Day babies. Some of them even have a website!)

And, as the AP points out, this is the first Friday Leap Day (which I'm sure is significant, uh, somehow or other) since 1980, when Ronald Reagan was a presidential candidate, and the last until 2036, when Chelsea Clinton will be a presidential candidate. (Or at least, that's what my sources at Diebold tell me.)

Anyway, it's a good day to be a frog. Ribbit!

Also, if you're a woman, today is traditionally considered a good day to propose to your man. If you're a Greek woman, though, set that wedding date for next year; getting married during a leap year is apparently considered bad luck.

You can read about the history of Leap Year here.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Prince Harry is being withdrawn from service in Afghanistan immediately, Britain's defense ministry says.

Classy Arizona fans strike again

By Brendan Loy

Fans in the Arizona student section, a.k.a. the "Zona Zoo," got themselves in hot water earlier this month for loudly chanting "F*** the refs!" during a nationally televised basketball game against Stanford. The university responded with an effort to crack down on such misbehavior. As part of that effort, interim head coach Kevin O'Neill sent out a video message to his school's students earlier this week, urging them to "be positive" in their chants:

O'Neill also apparently gave the students an in-person lecture about the vulgarity issue before last night's game against USC. And he told the Daily Wildcat in an article published yesterday: "I'm going to encourage them not to use vulgar profanity directed at anyone. The bottom line is we have the largest student section I've ever seen, but I think we need to carry ourselves in a first-class manner indicative of what our university, athletic department and basketball program are."

But alas, during the waning moments of USC's 70-58 win over the Wildcats last night, some bozo in the Zona Zoo decided it would be a good idea to throw a full water bottle at the USC bench -- nearly hitting head coach Tim Floyd. Here's the video:

To his great credit, O'Neill quickly grabbed the microphone, vigorously scolded the perpetrator, and apologized to Floyd and the Trojans. Good for him. Hopefully Arizona can get this nonsense under control.

On an unrelated note, I love how ESPN named O.J. Mayo the "Rogaine Player of the Game." LOL! I'm sure he deeply appreciates the honor.

The end has come

By Brendan Loy

Stand, Men of the West! Stand and wait! This is the hour of doom.

The realm of New Line Cinema is ended!

(Perhaps not unrelatedly, in a story I neglected to mention earlier this month, the Tolkien Trust has sued New Line over Lord of the Rings profits, threatening to scuttle The Hobbit.)

Almost March

By Brendan Loy

It's February 28, but who says "March Madness" can't get started a little early? Check out this wild ending in New Britain, Connecticut:

Wow.

It's unlikely we'll be seeing either Quinnipiac -- which is better known for polls than for basketball -- or Central Connecticut State in the Big Dance, but they're certainly doing their best to whet our appetites for it anyway. Anybody else excited for next month?

GOOOO IRISH!!!

By Brendan Loy

BEEEEAT CARDINALS!!!

That is all.

UPDATE: Um, so yeah, it's not going too well. Louisville 42, Notre Dame 27 at halftime.

UPDATE 2: Louisville won, 90-85. They were way ahead for most of the game, but Notre Dame mounted a valiant comeback late, with five three-pointers in the last minute-and-a-half -- three of them by Luke Harangody, who hadn't hit a three all season! Harangody ended up with 40 points.

UPDATE 3: USC-Arizona is now underway on ESPN. The Trojans lead early, 26-14.

UPDATE 4: Trojans pick up a huge road win, 70-58. Sweet!

Is John McCain screwed?

By Brendan Loy

Maybe. And it has nothing to do with Vicki Iseman:

Bottom line: Either McCain used the promise of public campaign funds as collateral for his loan, in which case he's locked himself into the public campaign finance system (and its strict spending limits) and is massively screwed until September. Or he didn't use potential public funds as collateral, which means he didn't have anything to offer as collateral, which means he received an improper loan. Neither one of those scenarios is very good for the Straight Talk Express.

Interesting. Verrrry interesting.

P.S. Then, unrelatedly, there's the fact that he was born in Panama. Obviously that one shouldn't matter, but it's an interesting ConLaw debate, if nothing else.

(Personally, I continue to maintain that the constitutional requirement should be changed to say that you have to have been a citizen -- whether natural-born or otherwise -- for 35 years. Thus the citizenship requirement would essentially replace the age requirement, and we'd prevent the obvious absurdity of someone who moved here when they were a toddler, like Jennifer Granholm, being ineligible because they're considered some sort of dangerous foreigner.)

Diebold leaks election results

By David K.

SPOILER WARNING: Do NOT watch the below video unless you want to know who is going to win in November.

Diebold Accidentally Leaks Results Of 2008 Election Early

Attention grammar snobs!

By Brendan Loy

It's National Grammar Day!

CORRECTION: My bad. It isn't today. Next Tuesday, March 4, is National Grammar Day.

I guess this means Hillary's concession speech will have to be grammatically correct.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Britain's Prince Harry has been serving on the front line in Afghanistan, CNN confirms.

Hucka-miracle

By dcl

Could be... Only way to find out is to sue McCain... My two cents, if it was good enough to keep A. Hamilton out it's good enough for lesser statesmen too. (And yes, I am explicitly saying that Hamilton is a higher level of statesmen than John McCain. Go ahead, argue that one.)

In other news, if you've nothing better to do today, call the mint and complain at them for rejecting DC's US quarter design... For some reason the rallying cry of the revolution, "taxation without representation" is seen as "too controversial" to put on the money. Seriously?

Unapologetic TN GOP whitewashes its Obama hit job, still misses the point

By Brendan Loy

A follow-up to my post below about the Tennessee Republican Party's vile, ethnically and religiously divisive smear against Barack Obama... the Somali photo and the reference to Obama's middle name have been removed from the state GOP's press release, and the following note added at the bottom:

Clarification: This release originally referenced a photo of Sen. Obama and incorrectly termed it to be “Muslim” garb. It is, in fact, Somali tribal garb, hence, we have deleted the photo. Also, in order to diffuse attempts by Democrats and the Left to divert attention from the main point of this release - that Sen. Obama has surrounded himself with advisers and recieved endorsements from people who are anti-Semitic and anti-Israel - we have deleted the use of Barack Obama’s middle name.

This "clarification" is grossly inadequate to resolve the issue. In fact, in a couple of ways, it makes things worse.

First of all, consider for a moment the claim that the original press release "incorrectly termed [Obama's clothing] to be 'Muslim' garb. It is, in fact, Somali tribal garb, hence, we have deleted the photo." Wait, what? Hold the phones. They're admitting they deleted it because it is "Somali," not "Muslim," garb. But how on earth did its alleged "Muslimness" make it relevant in the first place?

As best as I can tell, the Tennessee GOP is now explicitly stating that, in their opinion, if Barack Obama had been wearing "Muslim" garb, that simple fact -- standing alone, without regard to the photo's actual context -- would have made the photo automatically relevant to the party's claim that he "has surrounded himself" with anti-Semitic supporters. WTF?!? Someone needs to call them out on this, force them to explain themselves further. Are they suggesting that all Muslims are anti-Semites? That if someone is a Muslim, or is wearing "Muslim garb," that somehow creates a presumption that they're anti-Semitic? It appears they are saying precisely that; otherwise, the "clarification" makes no sense.

This afternoon, before the "clarification" was issued, I called the Tennessee GOP and left an angry (but respectful) phone message on Bill Hobbs's machine, asking why on earth they had concluded that the intentionally inflammatory Somali photo was in any way relevant to the press release. The "clarification" appears to answer that question, and it seems the answer is: "We thought it was relevant because we thought it made him look like a Muslim." That answer makes them look even worse.

A far better answer would have been: "Some intern added that photo because he thought it was funny. It was a mistake. We apologize." That, I could have accepted. Instead, they have elevated anti-Muslim bigotry to the level of official party policy! What was once implicit is now explicit. Astounding.

Secondly, the party claims it removed Obama's middle name in order to "diffuse attempts by Democrats and the Left to divert attention from the main point of this release." Leaving aside the misspelling of the word "defuse," this statement is downright Hillaryesque in its mendacious spin, as it attempts to deflect the blame for the GOP's own inexcusable mistake by suggesting that "Democrats and the Left" are somehow the villains here.

Never mind that the folks attacking the press release included such liberal luminaries as former Republican State Senate candidate Bob Krumm and conservative blogger John Norris Brown (who condemned the release even though "I would never support Obama because he’s an empty suit with whom I have almost no policy agreements"), not to mention centrist independents like myself.

Never mind that Karl Rove and John McCain himself have specifically said it's inappropriate to use Obama's middle name against him. (And please, let's not pretend that the usage is somehow innocent. Nobody calls him "Barack Hussein Obama" except as a deliberate, divisive maneuver based on religion, ethnicity and race. In the actual context of reality, it is transparently bogus to claim that calling Obama by his full name is anything other than a conscious playing of the Muslim Card. We all know what's going on here, so please, don't play dumb.)

Never mind that it was the Republicans themselves who "diverted attention" from their own "main point" -- their tenuous-but-debatable substantive claims about Obama's "anti-Semitic" ties -- with the deliberately inflammatory and divisive use of that photo and of "Hussein." (There is no other explanation for the inclusion of the photo, nor the usage of "Hussein," except the racist/inflammatory/divisive explanation. Their presence in the press release makes no sense otherwise.)

Never mind that the Tennessee GOP was privately scolded by the national Republican Party and publicly rebuked by John McCain for the press release.

Forget all that. According to the state GOP, this whole controversy is the liberals' fault.

Well, I'm sorry, but that's just not good enough. What's needed here isn't a "clarification," it's an apology. And until the state Republican Party owns up to the transparently obvious fact that they made a conscious, deliberate decision to use Barack Obama's racial and ethnic background, and his family's religious history -- and an utterly irrelevant photo of him in "Muslim garb" -- against him for political purposes... until it straightforwardly apologizes for that despicable tactic, and promises not to engage in such contemptible shenanigans again... my anger will remain intact. This mealy-mouthed "clarification" doesn't even begin to make things right.

McCain: I liked WFB!

By Brendan Loy

John McCain eulogizes William F. Buckley on National Review Online.

Hey, give the man credit. He knows an opportunity to endear himself to the Right when he sees it.

Tennessee GOP hits Obama with vile, divisive smear

By Brendan Loy

*See note below about the changed title of this post.

There are no adequate words of condemnation for this.

I'll try a few, though. Indefensible. Inexcusable. Disgusting. And, yes, racist.

The Tennessee Republican Party apparently thinks it's appropriate to smear Barack Obama -- or as they put it, Barack Hussein Obama -- with an official press release accompanied by an all-too-familiar irrelevant, inflammatory photo of Obama in Somali garb, described pointedly as "Muslim attire."

And they aren't backing down. Far from it, in fact. They say this deliberately divisive nonsense is necessary to "inform the Republican base." Oh yes, how "informative"! Good grief!

[UPDATE: The press release has been altered, with some of the offending material removed. You can see the original here. I've published a new post here addressing the state GOP's grossly inadequate "clarification."]

The people propagating this piece of trash may not themselves be racist or bigoted -- I strongly suspect they aren't, in fact -- but there's no question they are deliberately playing the race/religion card in a way specifically designed to appeal to those who would reject Obama because of some combination of: 1) the fact that he has black skin and Muslim ancestry, and 2) the utterly discredited, Internet-fueled rumors that he's some sort of radical-Islamist Manchurian Candidate.

And I'm just talking about the photo and the middle name (the use of which John McCain has specifically rejected as inappropriate). That's not even getting into how misleading and mendacious that "discussion" is, engaging in the sort of guilt-by-association via six-degrees-of-separation tripe that could land any politician in hot water. (Obama would be an anti-Israel president because... wait for it, wait for it... the board of a nonprofit organization on which he once served, once gave money to a "controversial Arab group," that once said it's opposed to Israel's existence? Really? ... I daresay I don't think it's terribly wise for Southern Republicans, of all people, to suggest that one's racial attitudes can be established through such tenuous links.)

But even those who might want to debate the validity of those points will surely agree that, in any event, the inclusion of the photo is utterly indefensible, to a such an extreme degree that whatever legitimacy the press release might otherwise have had is utterly destroyed. In other words, even admitting arguendo that these "anti-Semitic" Obama connections ought to be discussed, this is not the way to do it -- not by even the remotest stretch of the imagination. As such, I'm sure everyone will also agree that the Tennessee Republican Party's disgusting, vile, racist tactics should be roundly and universally condemned, period.

(More here and here.)

All I can say to the Tennessee Republican Party is that, as an independent, centrist resident of your state who leans conservative on a number of issues, this is something that I will most certainly keep in mind as I ponder whether to support the candidates whom you nominate for state office in future elections.

Bill Hobbs, communications director for the Tennessee Republican Party, whose name appears at the bottom of the press release, can be reached at billhobbs@tngop.org, or by phone at (615) 269-4260.

P.S. By the way, on the somewhat related issue of Obama's supposedly "anti-Semitic" foreign-policy advisor, Samantha Power -- not raised in the TN GOP release, but oft-discussed elsewhere, including here -- check out what the archliberal Max Boot, writing in the noted lefty publication Commentary, had to say. (If you don't know, both of those descriptions are entirely sarcastic.) More here.

NOTE: As several commenters pointed out, the issue isn't really whether Tennessee's Republican leaders are themselves racists -- which I'm sure they aren't -- but rather whether they are using deliberatively divisive, racist tactics against Barack Obama in order to appeal to the baser instincts of some of their constituents (which they clearly are).

As such, I've changed the title of this post (which was originally "The Tennessee GOP is run by racists"), along with some of the rhetoric in the first few paragraphs, in order to more accurately reflect my point -- and avoid distracting from the main issue with overheated rhetoric.

I apologize for going a little over-the-top in the initial version of this post. I was in a hurry and, frankly, quite angry. But the issue here is not whether Bill Hobbs, Robin Smith or anyone else in the party are personally racist. I never really meant to seriously suggest that they are. The issue is whether they are using racially (or religiously or ethnically) divisive tactics. That's what we (and I) should be focusing on.

Thoughts on drug advertising

By dcl

Can I start selling prescription placebo for the treatment of mild to moderate hypochondria? Side effects similar to those of a sugar pill.

R.I.P., W.F.B.

By Brendan Loy

William F. Buckley, Jr., has died. He was 82.

Buckley was, of course, the founder of the National Review. More broadly, he was sometimes described as the "father of modern conservatism." Or, as George F. Will once put it, "Before there was Ronald Reagan, there was Barry Goldwater, and before there was Barry Goldwater there was National Review, and before there was National Review there was Bill Buckley with a spark in his mind."

I love the lede in the New York Times obit: "William F. Buckley Jr., who marshaled polysyllabic exuberance, famously arched eyebrows and a refined, perspicacious mind to elevate conservatism to the center of American political discourse, died Wednesday at his home in Stamford, Conn." (What witty remark would Buckley make if he could respond to the New York Times praising him? Heh.)

Buckley remained a National Review contributor right to the end, as can be seen here. Indeed, after he was found dead at his desk, his son said, "He might have been working on a column." Buckley also continued to make headlines, such as when he criticized the Bush Administration in 2006 for displaying "the absence of effective conservative ideology."

It was National Review's The Corner that first broke the news of his passing this morning, and of course there are now a whole bunch of WFB tributes on the site from different Corner contributors.

And here's what some other bloggers are saying about his passing.

Frequent Irish Trojan contributor Texasyank writes:

The case can be made for Buckley as the most influential journalist of the second half of the 20th century. He was most responsible, first, for separating conservatism from the outright bigots and John Birchers, and second for making the defeat of imperial communism seem achievable--which, in the end, it was. When the cracking of the Soviet Empire finally occurred in the 1990s, when what Buckley had envisioned as far back as the 1940s finally happened, it happened with such a thoroughness and such a repudiation of the past that many were drawn to believe it was inevitable. It was not. The defeat of the Warsaw Pact happened because men like Buckley were able to give voice to an idea, and because men like (to list a partial honor role) Eisenhower, Dulles, Kennedy, Rusk and Reagan put that idea into action.

Personally, when I think of William F. Buckley, Jr., I always think of three classic WFB witticisms that my dad always used to quote when I was growing up. One is Buckley's famous line: "I'd rather entrust the government of the United States to the first 400 people listed in the Boston telephone directory than to the faculty of Harvard University." The other two lines come from a debate when Buckley was running as a third-party candidate for mayor of New York City. Asked what would be his first act upon being elected mayor, he replied, "Demand a recount." And asked whether he wanted to make any further remarks, he quipped, "I am satisfied to sit back and contemplate my own former eloquence." (My dad -- and subsequently I -- have often misquoted this as "I prefer to contemplate the eloquence of my previous remarks." But I assume the Wikipedia version is accurate. Anyway, same basic idea.)

Anyway. Rest in peace, Mr. FuBuckley.*

*My dad -- who, it should be noted, has greatly admired the man since his (i.e., my dad's) days as a young Goldwaterite -- often calls him "William FuBuckley," pronouncing the "F." as part of his last name. No idea why, but I like it. [UPDATE: Maybe this is why?]

UPDATE: In comments, my dad points out that "Fuhbuckley" is the more appropriate spelling. :) He also reminds me of another of his favorite legendary Buckleyisms, which I neglected to mention but which is perhaps the best of all, reproduced here, from a  letter to the editor published in the National Review:

          Dear Bill:
Three cheers to Dr. Ross Terrill. He slashed you to bits as you have been doing to yourself for the past year. Cancel my subscription.
Wm. W. Morris
Green Valley, Ariz.

             Dear Mr. Morris:
Cancel your own goddam subscription.
Cordially, WFB

Heh.

Under attack?

By Brendan Loy

A pair of dual-propeller military helicopters just flew loudly over downtown Knoxville. Has the Georgian invasion begun? ;)

Unintentional self-parody 101

By Brendan Loy

Suddenly, Hillary Clinton thinks superdelegates should mind their own business: "it would be unfair and unjust to cut off the nominating process now" by closing ranks around Obama. (Hat tip: InstaPundit.)

They really have no sense of irony in Hillaryland, do they?

D'oh!

By Brendan Loy

The orange blazer had no magic last night, as #1 Tennessee lost to Vanderbilt.

So, who'll be #1 in the polls next week? Does Memphis take it back? Or perhaps North Carolina? More importantly, is Tennessee still a #1 seed? I'd think that, if they win out (including the SEC Tournament), they'd have to be.

Now, enough of this Go Big Orange business. :) It's time to start getting excited about tomorrow night's Notre Dame-Louisville game. GO IRISH!

Dem debate open thread

By Brendan Loy

I actually don't think I'll be watching tonight's (final?) Clinton-Obama debate. But if you'll be watching and you want to comment on it, here's your thread.

UPDATE: You can watch the debate in its entirety here:

#1 Tennessee visits Vandy tonight

By Brendan Loy

Barack Obama isn't the only frontrunner who will be on national TV tonight trying to defend his recently acquired top-dog status against a rival's onslaught. At 9:00 PM EST -- the same time as the Democratic debate on MSNBC -- the #1-ranked Tennessee men's basketball team will face #18 Vanderbilt on the Commodores' home floor. The game will be on ESPN, and Bruce Pearl will be in his orange blazer.

Go Vols & Go Barack!

P.S. I'm looking ahead a bit now, but take a gander at the Big East standings, and then ponder for a moment Thursday night's big game: Notre Dame at Louisville, 7:00 PM on ESPN. Holy cow. Mike Brey's boys playing, maybe, for a Big East regular-season championship? I love it! Oh, and did I mention it's part of an Irish Trojan doubleheader? USC visits Arizona at 9:00 PM Thursday, also on ESPN. Sweet.

Continue reading "#1 Tennessee visits Vandy tonight" »

Kudos to John McCain

By Brendan Loy

John McCain already seems intent on running a more honorable campaign against Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton has. To wit:

Republican John McCain quickly denounced the comments of a radio talk show host who while warming up a campaign crowd referred repeatedly to Barack Hussein Obama and called the Democrat a "hack, Chicago-style" politician. ...

"I apologize for it," McCain told reporters, addressing the issue before they had a chance to ask the Arizona senator about Cunningham's comments.

"I did not know about these remarks but I take responsibility for them. I repudiate them," he said. "My entire campaign I have treated Senator Obama and Senator (Hillary Rodham) Clinton with respect. I will continue to do that throughout this campaign.

McCain called both Democrats "honorable Americans" and said "I want to dissociate myself with any disparaging remarks that may have been said about them."

Asked whether the use of Obama's middle name—the same as former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein—is proper, McCain said: "No, it is not. Any comment that is disparaging of either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama is totally inappropriate."

There have been so many times during Hillary Clinton's campaign -- yesterday's shenanigans being only the latest example, Buffenbarger being another recent one -- when the honorable thing for her to do would have been to come out and quickly make a statement just like the one McCain made. But that's not how Hillary operates. She thinks it makes her a good "fighter" that she never concedes an inch -- that it would somehow be a sign of weakness to repudiate bad behavior by her surrogates and supporters. This attitude was fully on display yesterday, when her new "tough as nails" campaign manager, Maggie Williams, refused to condemn an obvious attempt (by someone) to play the Muslim Card against Obama, instead grotesquely accusing Obama of being the "divisive" one for daring to cry foul against such tactics. Hillary, with all her rhetoric about being a "fighter" who can go toe-to-toe with the "Republican attack machine," seems to think this take-no-prisoners approach is a badge of honor. In fact, it is a badge of shame. She is the very thing she detests (or claims to detest). Thankfully, it appears the American people see right through her, and that's a big part of the reason Hillary Clinton almost certainly will not be our next president.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Massive power outage hits Central and South Florida.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: The outage was apparently caused by a nuclear power plant shutting down -- or possibly vice versa. Quoth the AP:

Florida's largest electric company shut down a nuclear reactor south of Miami for safety reasons Tuesday, causing sporadic power outages covering large portions of the state that could last well into the night. More than 3 million people are affected, the state says.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission said that the two Florida Power & Light nuclear reactors at its Turkey Point power point 30 miles south of Miami automatically shut down. ...

"We don't know whether the grid disturbance caused the units to shut down or that their shut down caused the grid disturbance," said Kenneth Clark, a spokesman at the NRC regional office in Atlanta. He said the two reactors were automatically shut down and in safe standby.

"There are no safety concerns. The reactors shut down as designed," said Clark in a telephone interview.

Federal officials say there's no indication terrorism is involved.

The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and St. Petersburg Times have more.

UPDATE 2: Lending credence to the "vice versa" theory (i.e., that "the grid disturbance caused the [nuclear] units to shut down" rather than "their shut down caused the grid disturbance"), the Palm Beach Post says "a 'massive equipment failure' just after 1 p.m. at an FPL substation in Miami-Dade County caused the massive power outages that affected parts of the state today, an FPL spokesman said." FPL stands for Florida Power & Light.

"There has been a major equipment failure at the FPL transmission substation in South Florida that has caused major transmission imbalances throughout the state," Public Service Commission spokeswoman Bev Demello said today.

Something caused the protective tripping mechanisms of some generating units to activate, which has caused rotating blackouts, she said.

I don't think "FPL transmission substation" and "nuclear power plant" are synonymous, so it appears we have conflicting explanations here. Lending further credence to this interpretation: the Post's website has a separate headline stating, "Nuclear plant affected." Cause and effect are different, so I assume they're saying the plant didn't cause it, but was merely affected by it.

Personally, I blame some combination of butterfly ballots, Raul Castro, and Hillary Clinton, not necessarily in that order.

P.S. Oh, and Canada. Always Blame Canada.

Hillary's firewall

By Brendan Loy

is leaking.

This may explain the Clintons' emerging Texas-doesn't-count theory.

Tomorrow's Clinton talking points today: the new firewall is Rhode Island! ;)

Fear and loathing in Hillaryland

By Brendan Loy

Two articles out today, one from the Washington Post and one from Politico, really paint a vivid picture of disarray and dismay in Hillaryland, as Senator Clinton's increasingly frustrated top tier of advisors careen madly from storyline to storyline and talking point to talking point, unable to craft a winning message and unwilling to recognize that this is primarily their own (and the candidate's) fault, not Obama's or the media's.

The inability to settle on a strategy or message helps explain why Hillary's last debate performance was so tactically incoherent, and why her public tone since then has been wildly inconsistent. It'll be interesting to see if she can pick a message, and then stay "on" it, in time for tonight's debate. I wouldn't bet on it. Her campaign now bears every indication of being a total train wreck. With each passing day, the "political genius" of Team Clinton is increasingly being exposed as a fraud -- Bill's success was due largely to his own charisma/charm and a healthy serving of dumb luck, IMHO, so when you replace Bill with his charmless wife, and when the other guy's getting all the lucky breaks, there isn't much left to work with.

P.S. Team Clinton's lashing out at the media is a sign of how unfocused they have become in their desperation and frustration. Blaming the media is almost never going to be a winning message if you're a Democrat. It pisses off the media, makes you look like a sore loser, and does nothing to win over voters (since it's Republicans, not Democrats, who instinctively mistrust the MSM).

In any event, if Hillary's political advisers were competent, they would have foreseen Obama's inevitable media advantage and would have come up with a coherent plan to combat it. They didn't, and now they're acting shocked and outraged that the media is behaving the way it always behaves. (The media loves a "change" candidate, something Bill Clinton knew well in 1992. Of course they're going to give more favorable coverage to the exciting, "inspiring" candidate over the wonky "experienced" candidate, particularly when the former has a real flair for public speaking whereas the latter toggles between preachy schoolmarm and screechy monotone. These are "facts on the ground" that Team Clinton obviously should have anticipated and planned for, and their failure to do so is particularly damning given that the ability to "fight" and win pitched political battles is a key component of Hillary's supposed appeal. How is she going to defeat the "Republican attack machine" if she doesn't understand the first thing about how the media works?)

Obama's Michigan supporters will fight for "their" Uncommitted delegates

By Brendan Loy

Yesterday, my ten-day-old nerdy post about Michigan's Uncommitted delegates -- in which I asserted that "if the Democratic presidential race goes all the way to the convention, and if Michigan's disputed delegation is ultimately seated, an absolutely crucial question will be the identities and loyalties of the state's 55 'Uncommitted' delegates" -- got a comment from one Abby Dart, the deputy director of Michiganders for Obama. Dart wrote that "we are running an aggressive campaign to elect our slate of Michigan Obama delegates. We aren't going to let the Clinton campaign gain any of our hard fought for uncommitted delegates."

Intrigued, I e-mailed Dart to get more information on this effort. Among other things, I asked whether, to her knowledge, the Clinton campaign is also mounting an organized effort to elect their loyalists as "Uncommitted" delegates -- something they have every legal right to do, voters' intent be damned. Dart answered in the affirmative: "I've heard that the Clinton team in Michigan is organizing as well to try to get our uncommitted [delegates]." But, she added, "now we have the labor unions (of course, critical interest group in Michigan) assisting us and the press understands what is at stake."

Continue reading "Obama's Michigan supporters will fight for "their" Uncommitted delegates" »

Dodd endorses Obama

By Brendan Loy

Rejecting "entreaties from the Clintons," Chris Dodd, former presidential candidate and senior senator/superdelegate from Connecticut, will endorse Barack Obama at a Cleveland news conference this morning. Dodd is a longtime friend of the Clintons; Bill named him general chairman of the Democratic National Committee back in the mid-90s. Mark Halperin calls it "one of the ten most back-breaking nods Clinton has lost to Obama."

P.S. If Obama were looking for an "attack dog" runningmate, he could do far worse than Dodd, who can growl and bark with the best of  'em. :) Dodd also has experience/gravitas; he's been in the Senate for 28 years, is chairman of the Banking Committee, has been on the Foreign Relations Committee forever, etc. He'd be an unexciting choice, though. I don't see anything about Dodd that would be attractive enough to overcome the two-senators problem, or the Northeastern-liberal problem. Besides, do Democrats really want to risk putting another Democratic senator from Connecticut on the national ticket? :) We all know what happened to the last guy they did that with... heh. (Not a fair comparison, of course; Dodd is as solid of a partisan liberal Democrat as they come. But still.)

All in all, I don't see it happening. If Obama is willing to go with a Northeastern U.S. Senator for the sake of experience/gravitas, I think Biden would be the better choice. The only thing Dodd might have on Biden is that I think he's seen as more of a straight-shooter -- which, admittedly, might be a big deal for the Prophet of Hope and Change. :) But I still think Biden's the pick if Obama wants to solidify his foreign-policy credentials. More likely, though, I suspect we'll be seeing someone like Webb, Sebelius, Schweitzer... or perhaps Bredesen? (But cf., Schweitzer and Bredesen haven't endorsed yet.)

UPDATE: The Boston Globe speculates that Clinton and/or Obama -- more likely Clinton -- may choose a runningmate before the race is over if the battle rages on past March 4. (Hat tip: Reagan's GOP.)

Obama accuses Clinton of cherrypicking

By Brendan Loy

Barack Obama on Hillary Clinton and NAFTA:

He said Clinton had portrayed herself as "co-president" during her husband's administration but was now trying to distance herself from one of his signature achievements.

"Every good thing that happened she says she was a part of, and so the notion that you can selectively pick what you take credit for and then run away from what isn't politically convenient, that doesn't make sense," Obama said.

He's absolutely right. She made this bed, now she has to lie in it.

(If he really wants to press the point of how Hillary is distorting her own record, he might want to ask more directly why she keeps singing her own praises with regard to her failed health-care reform effort in 1993. It's a bit like Charlie Weis bragging about his coaching efforts last season, or Ben Affleck citing Gigli as an example of his acting skill. It just doesn't make much sense. "Vote for me, I'm the experienced candidate who knows how to get things done! You want proof? Just look at this colossal failure I orchestrated!")

On a somewhat related note, if Hillary more often sounded like she does in this interview, she'd be a far more palatable candidate. Thoughtful, introspective, genuine. Where's that Hillary on the campaign trail, in the debates, etc.? Instead we get schizoid Hillary, who toggles back and forth between obviously-fake "finding my voice" moments and over-the-top anger and sarcasm. It's like she's been calculating and triangulating for so long, she's almost forgotten how to be herself.

Heh.

By Brendan Loy

Heh.

Tennessee defends its borders

By Brendan Loy

Heh:

A resolution drafted for filing in the state Legislature today rejects what the resolution calls "an assault on the sanctity of the borders of our great state of Tennessee."

Says part of the resolution: "The state of Tennessee elects to take the high road relative to this mythical dispute, instead of becoming embroiled in an election-year ploy initiated by the Georgia General Assembly through legislation which, while purporting to settle a boundary dispute in a friendly manner, is actually nothing but a veiled attempt to commandeer the resources of the Tennessee River for the benefit of water-starved Atlanta, which is either unable or unwilling to control its reckless urban sprawl."

Oh, snap! Georgia, you just got served!

(Previous post here.)

Protest disrupts Kelley event at Berkeley

By Brendan Loy

Bill Kelley, former deputy counsel to President Bush and current Notre Dame Law School professor, got a taste of life at a slightly more liberal university when protesters disrupted an event he was participating in last week at UC-Berkeley. There's a photo:

He looks somewhat perturbed. The Daily Californian article doesn't say, however, whether Professor Kelley was branded a "war criminal" by the protesters. (The event's moderator, Professor John Yoo, was.)

As usual with such protesters, they were very interested in free speech, so long as they were the ones speaking. "As the panelist discussion progressed, protestors continuously shouted at Yoo," according the Daily Cal.

And their shouts weren't even relevant to the topic at hand -- while the protesters were rambling about torture and executive power, the panelists (who included USC professor Susan Estrich, another noted war criminal*) tried to have a discussion about why voters should carefully consider potential Supreme Court nominations in making election decisions this fall, something you'd think the protesters would agree with. But, you know, heaven forbid scholars get together to talk about such things. They must be shouted down! They're war criminals! They're evil fascists!! Bush=Hitler!!! *sigh*

Said Ethan Rarick, director of the Center on Politics at the Institute of Governmental Studies: "We're fine with people coming to express their opinions, even on the panelists and participants, but it should not disrupt the event."

*...and by "war criminal," I mean "antiwar liberal feminist."

Political Exhaustion

By dcl

Why is Hillary having so much trouble, and that trouble keeps getting compounded every time she opens her mouth? Political exhaustion. Specifically exhaustion with a type of politics that Hillary's actions in recent days and weeks typifies: Absolutely positively anything to WIN. And it is hitting her hard in the Democratic party for two reasons: first, it is the politics of George W. Bush; second, there is another option besides her that at minimum manages to mask the behavior. So people are tired of the old politics and want something new. Or something that at least looks like it's new. Obama is out on the campaign trail with a message of, "you know that old politics, I'm tired of it too." And Hillary's message is, "I've got different policy objectives, but I like the old politics and I'll knee cap anyone that says different."

What America really wants is a candidate that would not take the following bargain: If you sacrifice six new borne babies and offer their burnt offering at the alter of the God Debold on the fifth Friday in February before a presidential election you will be guaranteed victory in November.

And the non literal reality (yes, it is a blatant oxymoron -- but I can't literally accuse a presidential candidate of intent to commit infanticide) of current politics is, Giuliani and Hillary would both take the deal and Obama and McCain might not take the deal -- or at least we hope they wouldn't take the deal. And really, that makes all the difference (an allusion to Robert Frost, lest Hillary accuse me of plagiarism).

Romney, resurrected?

By Brendan Loy

Mitt Romney may get back in the race if the McCain scandal blows up.

Hillary staffers play Obama Muslim card with leaked Somali photo

By Brendan Loy

What can one say about this?

(Here's the Drudge page where it came from. More here.)

Although I probably shouldn't, I'll give Hillary the benefit of the doubt, for the moment, and assume the photo was leaked by low-level staffers with no authorization -- not even of the wink-wink, nudge-nudge kind -- from Hillaryland Central. Of course, to maintain that benefit, she'll need to step forward forthwith and angrily condemn this disgusting, unworthy smear tactic in no uncertain terms. No caveats, no defensiveness, no twisting this into some sort of talking point: just a straightforward, genuine condemnation.

Even if she does that, though, there is simply no way to undo the damage the photo will do -- both to Obama (among general-election voters who are inclined to lend credence to the Muslim Manchurian Candidate nonsense) and to Clinton. In the context of the Democratic nomination fight, this is deeply, deeply damaging to her, regardless of her personal culpability (or lack thereof), because nobody in the media -- and very few in the party, outside of her most loyal die-hards -- will give her the same benefit of the doubt that I'm tentatively extending. After all, the logic will go, leak-and-condemn is precisely what she'd do if this was a deliberate ploy. Even a full-throated condemnation can't unring the bell. So, no matter what she says, practically everyone will see this as yet another dirty Clinton tactic, orchestrated or at least acquiesced to from the top of the campaign. That's the price she pays for a) having a do-anything-to-win reputation, and b) behaving in ways that amplify that reputation.

I think, in fact, this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back for Hillary (no pun intended). I wouldn't be at all surprised if a whole bunch of superdelegates defect to Obama's camp in the next 48 hours, and the pressure on Hillary to "drop out for the good of the party" rachets up much sooner than expected. If this is going to be what the final week before Texas and Ohio looks like, every Democrat outside of the most loyal Clintonistas are going to want this campaign over, now.

UPDATE: On the other hand... Marc Ambinder points out that the only evidence the photo actually came from Hillary's camp is, well, Matt Drudge's assertion that it does. Ambinder writes:

It's unclear who is circulating the photo, what the photo means, why only Matt Drudge would receive it, why anyone would assume that even "stressed" Clinton staffers would do such a thing, and why, absent any proof that such a photo was circulating, Obama's campaign would formally react.

(Clinton campaign aides denied circulating the photo, although they worry that, if someone on the campaign -- 700 people now -- did so without authorization, they will be in a pickle.)

We're at the stage of the campaign where both campaigns lose perspective and are willing to believe the absolute worst about each other on the basis of an assertion. And that Manichean perspective then cause said campaign to imputing the absolute worst motivations to their opponents. ...

Anyway, the Clinton campaign believes that the Obama campaign is cynically exploiting the Drudge fetish that news producers have in order to step on her big foreign policy speech today, and the Obama campaign believes that the Clinton campaign is actually sending out a funny-looking photo of Obama.

Such charges are aided and abetted by stories like this one, which uncritically accepts the premise of the photo and its origin.

Could some dumb Clinton ally have sent the photo to Matt Drudge? Sure. Does that mean the campaign authorized its sending? Why would Matt Drudge be the recipient of such an oppo dump -- whatever the oppo dump was supposed to signify.

It'll be interesting to see how this story develops. My above commentary is obviously premised on the notion that the photo did come from someone in the Clinton camp (or at least that the media continues to "uncritically accept" that assertion as fact).

UPDATE 2: Benefit of the doubt extinguished.

Obviously, if this wasn't coming from them, they'd deny it. (As Josh Marshall says, "Put it all together and the Clinton camp would appear to be unwilling to make even the most perfunctory denial that they are or were circulating this photo around. We held up on [discussing] this [story] because we never want to take Drudge as a fact witness for anything. But I think the Clinton camp's statement speaks for itself.")

Instead, the Clinton camp did exactly what I said they shouldn't do, reacting with defensiveness and twisting this into an anti-Obama talking point. And it's the most cynical talking point you can possibly imagine. From Hillary's campaign manager:

If Barack Obama's campaign wants to suggest that a photo of him wearing traditional Somali clothing is divisive, they should be ashamed. Hillary Clinton has worn the traditional clothing of countries she has visited and had those photos published widely.

This is nothing more than an obvious and transparent attempt to distract from the serious issues confronting our country today and to attempt to create the very divisions they claim to decry.

The message, in essence, is that Obama is being anti-Muslim for daring to suggest that it's divisive to circulate a photo that's obviously deliberately designed to feed the bigoted anti-Muslim rumor that he's some sort of terrorist Manchurian Candidate. So basically, Clinton's people can play the Muslim Card to maximum advantage, and then call Obama an anti-Muslim bigot for objecting to their tactics.

F*** Hillary Clinton. F*** her and f*** her whole cynical, divisive, disgusting campaign. May she return to the Senate in shame, get caught in some sort of horrible scandal, and be defeated in the 2012 Senate race.

P.S. From the previously skeptical Marc Ambinder: "OK -- so someone (connected to the Clinton campaign?) circulated the photo because they wanted to show everyone how cool Obama looked in it... and the Obama campaign, for questioning the motive of the person who distributed it, is being offensive?"

P.P.S. Note that, just this morning (before I knew about the photo), I was saying, "I don't think it's fair to put the 'Muslim Manchurian Candidate' thing on Hillary."

Oh, but how quickly and thoroughly she has proved me wrong.

If Clinton's campaign really wanted to avoid being "distract[ed] from the serious issues confronting our country today," they would have promptly put out a statement like this:

Senator Obama and I disagree on a number of things, but we are in complete agreement that religion and ethnicity should not be used as a wedge issue to divide us. Obviously, there is nothing wrong with wearing the traditional garb of another nation while visiting there. Just as obviously, the person who circulated this photo is trying to suggest otherwise. We do not yet know whether the photo was circulated by anyone working for our campaign; if it was, it was obviously unauthorized, and we abhor it. If we discover that anyone on this campaign was employing such a cynical tactic, that person will no longer be working for this campaign. I know that Senator Obama and I both share a desire to make this contest about the issues, not about race or gender or ethnicity or religion, and I hope we can return to that important and substantive debate.

But they don't want to avoid distraction. They want to turn this to their advantage. They will, I think, fail. But it's telling that their first instinct is to attack, no matter how cynical or wrong-headed or mutually destructive their line of attack may be.

UPDATE: Now the Clinton campaign has come out -- finally -- with a quasi-denial. They say the e-mail wasn't "officially" pushed by the campaign. Well, of course not. Things like this are never "official." Cue Josh Marshall:

When we first heard about this brouhaha this morning, we didn't want to do anything with it before we heard what the Clinton camp had to say, for the reasons I described in the initial post ["we never want to take Drudge as a fact witness for anything"]. We know that without doing some sort of exhaustive internal investigation, there's no way a national campaign can say that no one in their campaign had anything to do with it. There's high-level staff, mid-level, hundreds of volunteers, etc. That's not what we were looking for. In most cases, in a situation like this, a campaign, or in this case, say, perhaps Howard Wolfson or some other top level staff would say: "We don't condone this. We didn't authorize this. As far as we know no one in our organization had anything to do with this. Our campaign is made up of hundreds of people. So we can't say definitively that someone somewhere didn't make a stupid decision. But this isn't something the campaign has anything to do with." We pushed and pushed. But we didn't get anything like that. The new statement goes further [than earlier non-denials]. But not that much. The Clinton campaign is either terribly inept at dealing with the story or they know or suspect that it's accurate.

Clinton unleashes sarcastic attack on Obama

By Brendan Loy

On Thursday night, Hillary Clinton called Barack Obama a plagiarist who "Xeroxes" his ideas and has never accomplished anything -- and then said she's "honored" to be on stage with him.

On Saturday, she accused him of using "Karl Rove's playbook" in a weeks-old mailer. "Shame on you, Barack Obama!" she cried.

Now, it seems her anger has turned to sarcasm. On Sunday, during a campaign stop in Rhode Island, she mocked Obama's message of hope and change in a manner only slightly less dirisive than supporter Tom Buffenbarger's tirade last week. See for yourself:

It looks like Mark Penn is winning the debate over strategy in Hillaryland. I told you the media's "Hillary isn't going negative" spin was wrong. She did go negative in last week's debate; she just did so incoherently. I'm not sure whether this latest diatribe qualifies as coherence, but it certainly signifies a conscious decision to stay on the attack. It'll be very interesting to see what happens Tuesday night in Cleveland. I think we can expect fireworks for sure.

UPDATE: The wildly ideologically divergent Jonathan Alter and Robert Novak both say Hillary should drop out now -- before Texas and Ohio. "To withdraw this week would be the best thing imaginable for Hillary's political career," Alter writes. "She won't, of course, and for reasons that help explain why she's in so much trouble in the first place." Novak, meanwhile, says "many Democratic insiders" are "pray[ing] for the clear Obama victories on March 4 that they hope will make it unnecessary for anybody to beg Hillary Clinton to end her failed campaign." (Hat tip: NRO.)

Eight wonderful years

By Brendan Loy

Eight years ago, Becky and I were freshmen in college. I was 18; she was 17. I still thought I was going to be a journalist when I grew up; she had no idea yet what her major, never mind her career path, would be. Like a lot of kids our age, we had a whole ton of options, a whole bunch of newfound independence, and no clear idea what to do with it all. Neither of us, I think it's fair to say, had any kind of a grand plan for what paths we each wanted our life to take. Heck, we barely even had rough outlines. We were too busy enjoying the adventure of being young and carefree to think much about the details of the future.

And yet, amid all that glorious chaos, we found each other -- and we somehow managed, each of us, to make the best decision we've ever made. We decided to get together, to make a go of it as a couple. And the rest, as they say, is history.

February 25 is the date Becky and I used to call our "anniversary"; it was on that day in the year 2000 that we "officially" started dating. Of course, when we got married, December 31 supplanted February 25 as the day we celebrate our anniversary each year. Even so, I think it bears notice that, although our marriage is just a smidgeon past the two-year mark,  our relationship is, as of today, eight years old.

In some ways, I can't believe it's been that long. Man, time flies -- I've now been with Becky for almost one-third of my life. Wow. Yet in other ways, I'm amazed it's only been eight years. Our lives are now so fused together into a single, cohesive whole that it's almost hard to believe there was ever a time they were otherwise. It's difficult to remember not being in love with Becky.

When I really stop and ponder all the many memorable stops on the amazing journey we've travelled together since this date eight years ago, it's simply overwhelming. I've been trying to think of something meaningful to say about it, but frankly, I'm not sure how to put it into words -- at least not without being too unbearably sappy, if I haven't crossed that Rubicon already. :) But what I thought might be fun would be a little photographic retrospective: one picture per year, from 2000 through 2008. What a long, strange trip it's been...

2000:

Still my favorite picture ever of us -- and it was taken by me, holding the camera at arm's length and pointing it blindly back at us, along a hiking trail in Scotland. Really an incredibly lucky shot. And speaking of incredible, look at those beautiful blue eyes and that gorgeous blonde hair. (Oops, did I say I wasn't going to be sappy? Sorry...)

2001:

At Jen and Sören's wedding in Germany -- the event where I really first started to feel like a part of Becky's family. And wow, look how young we look!

Continue reading "Eight wonderful years" »

Lisa Velte wins Oscar Pool

By Brendan Loy

Notre Dame Law School Class of 2007 graduate Lisa Velte won the 4th annual Irish Trojan Oscar Pool tonight, becoming the third consecutive NDLS student or alum to win the pool.

She follows on the heels of 2006 winner Chris McLemore, a fellow member of the Class of '07, and 2007 winner Kristin West, a current 3L. (The 2005 pool went to New Hampshire resident Jackie Domaingue.)

Velte got every major category right, and 16 of the 24 awards overall. Although she erred on eight of the 14 categories worth only one point apiece, her correct picks in the acting, directing, screenplay and musical categories, along with Best Picture, allowed her to rack up 72 out of a possible 80 points, tying McLemore for the highest score in Oscar Pool history.

In addition, Velte is the first contestant ever to clinch victory before the Best Picture winner was even announced. She was guaranteed first place as soon as Joel Coen and Ethan Coen won Best Director, largely because almost all of her competitors also correctly predicted No Country for Old Men's Best Picture win, and thus none of them had any shot to catch her in the standings, no matter who own that award.

Roger Snyder, a.k.a. USC Roger, finished second with 68 points. West, the defending champion, came in third with 62 points. Victoria Wagner was fourth with 60 points, and I, Brendan Loy, tied with Kevin Curran, a.k.a. kcatnd, for fifth place with 58.

Brandin Hay, Joe Swiderski and Victoria Lopez -- who, perhaps mercifully, didn't almost win this year -- tied for seventh place with 57. Rounding out the Top 10, in a three-way tie for tenth with 56 points apiece, were Barbara Cross, Nate Djordjevic and Steve Copenhaver.

Complete final standings are here.

Oscar thread & Oscar Pool standings

By Brendan Loy

ABC's telecast of the Academy Awards is underway. This thread will remain on top of my homepage throughout the show.

After the jump are the latest standings in the 4th annual Irish Trojan Oscar Pool, as well as any liveblogging I may do about the show itself. Updates are in reverse chronological order, so the latest update will always be posted on top (immediately after the jump). You may want to simply go to the permalink and reload it throughout the evening.

You may also want to check out Nikki Finke's liveblog.

Continue reading "Oscar thread & Oscar Pool standings" »

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Cuba's National Assembly has named Raul Castro, Fidel Castro's younger brother, as the country's president.

Huckabee on SNL

By Brendan Loy

Heh.

Ralph Nader: he's baaaaack

By Brendan Loy

Ralph Nader is running for president again.

Says Obama: "I think anybody has the right to run for president if they file sufficient papers. And I think the job of the Democratic Party is to be so compelling that a few percentage of the vote going to another candidate is not going to make any difference."

He also says, in response to Nader's criticism that Obama lacks substance: "My sense is that Mr. Nader is somebody who, if you don't listen and adopt all of his policies, thinks you're not substantive. He seems to have a pretty high opinion of his own work." Obama added that, "historically," Nader is a "singular" and "heroic figure" for his consumer advocacy, but "I do think there is a sense now that if somebody is not hewing to the Ralph Nader agenda, then you must be lacking in some way."

P.S. If Nader's percentage of the vote keeps declining at the rate it did between 2000 (2.73%) and 2004 (0.38%), he'll get 0.05% this year. Or, if you prefer subtraction to division and multiplication, he'll get negative 1.97%. :)

Oscar Pool: last chance!

By Brendan Loy

Just a reminder that the deadline to enter my Oscar Pool is 7:00 PM EST tonight! And of course, I'll be posting live results during the show, beginning at 8:00 PM, so stay tuned for that.

(This post will remain on top of the homepage until the deadline has passed. New posts will appear below.)

The forgotten election calendar

By Brendan Loy

Politico's Ben Smith has a post up about "chaos" at a Nevada county convention, an event that he says "was supposed to be something like a formality, ratifying the choices of caucusgoers last month."

Hmm... well, as a practical matter, that might be true. But procedurally speaking, it's not correct. Let's go to The Green Papers for an explanation of the actual process.

Back on January 19, when Nevada held its public caucuses, voters in each precinct chose not presidential candidates, nor national-convention delegates "pledged" to a particular candidate. Instead, they chose delegates to the very county conventions that were held yesterday. It's a bit like how, on "Election Day" in November, we're actually voting for presidential electors, not the candidates they're pledged to. Except in this case, the system is even more convoluted, and nobody's "pledged" to anybody. "While a non-binding Presidential Preference Poll is conducted during the caucuses, delegates at the Precinct Caucus level are not bound to their declared Presidential preference."

Next in the process are the county conventions, which choose the county's delegates to the Nevada State Democratic Convention. Again, "while a non-binding Presidential Preference Poll is conducted during the Conventions, delegates at the Precinct Caucus level are not bound to their declared Presidential preference."

Finally, the delegates selected by the county conventions meet at the state convention from April 18 to 20, and only then are the national convention delegates actually allocated and chosen.

Nevada is hardly unique in this regard. Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Nebraska, North Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming will all be allocating national-convention delegates at little-noticed, low-profile events over the next few months. These events will be treated as rubber-stamp formalities by the media -- if they're even discussed at all -- but in a race this close, where every delegate counts, they could potentially be very important.

For instance, if you thought you knew the pledged-delegate count in Iowa (supposedly Obama 16, Clinton 15, Edwards 14), you may be in for a surprise when the county conventions convene on March 15. Will Edwards's county delegates stick with Johnny Boy, or will they vote for one of the other two candidates? Will any of Hillary's county delegates have changed their minds as Obama-mania has taken hold over the last month-and-a-half? Or, conversely, will any Obama supporters have switched to Hillary? As The Green Papers notes, there's nothing to stop them from doing so. And a switcheroo here or there could alter the delegate balance.

Iowa is particularly likely to see changes from the expected tally because of the Edwards effect, but the other states bear watching, too. The Obama and Clinton camps may have pledged not to "poach" national convention delegates once they're allocated, but that isn't the case yet in these states. And even without "poaching," we could see delegates individually changing their minds. So I think it's worth a closer look at this bit of potentially important procedural minutiae.

Continue reading "The forgotten election calendar" »

BracketBusters / UT-Memphis open thread

By Brendan Loy

I'm expecting a busy afternoon and evening, and thus probably won't be able to watch as much basketball as I'd like. But there's plenty to talk about, with the day's biggest games being Drake @ Butler at 5:00 PM on ESPN2 (the BracketBusters marquee game) and, of course, Tennessee @ Memphis at 9:00 PM on ESPN2. Although, don't sleep on Kent State @ St. Mary's at midnight on the Deuce, which Kyle Whelliston says is potentially the most consequential 'Busters game of them all, bubble-wise.

Anyway, here's the scoreboard. If you're watching the games and you feel like commenting, fire away.

P.S. Nice wins for USC and Notre Dame on Thursday night, eh?

P.P.S. Check out 4th through 9th place in the Pac-10 standings. Wow. Is that conference balanced or what?

UPDATE: Tennessee wins, 66-62! Come Monday morning, the Vols will be #1 in the nation for the first time in school history. (Er, on the men's side, that is.)

And so ends Memphis's bid for an undefeated season. The Tigers were 8-for-17 from the free-throw line, and they didn't hit a single three-pointer after their white-hot start in the game's first 12 minutes.

Oh, and Drake beat Butler in another very exciting game.

Oscar pool: one day left

By Brendan Loy

This is just another reminder to get your Oscar picks in! The deadline to enter my 4th annual Oscar Pool is 7:00 PM EST tomorrow.

UPDATE: Nikki Finke on what to expect tomorrow night:

A chilly rain is forecast for Sunday so the Red Carpet has been tented. Nerves are still frayed from the writers strike just ended. Panic is setting in about an actors strike that may be on the way. Few in America or the world have seen the nominated pics and performances. There's no suspense because Hollywood has long ago guessed who and what will probably win. The vast majority of the presenters aren't big names. And not only has the host done it before to really poor ratings, but Jon Stewart couldn't even find anything funny to say about it while guesting on Larry King Live. So, all in all, I think everyone should expect the Worst Oscars Ever In The History Of Hollywood.

Heh.

Straight talk?

By Brendan Loy

Josh Marshall: "There's no way of getting around the fact that McCain routinely, almost constantly, issues categorical denials that are demonstrably false."

More here. ("He can't put this one behind him simply by asserting that he's JOHN MCCAIN, a living embodiment of honor and integrity, and so we all have to trust him.")

For me, these dissembling denials of side-issues are a much bigger problem than vague, anonymous allegations in a liberal newspaper that some people thought he was maybe having an affair. ... Look, McCain's chance of winning over centrist voters like myself is largely premised on his reputation for "straight talk." If that's just another hollow brand, then what's left?

P.S. On the other hand, maybe some swing voters will vote for McCain just to spite the Times. Though I doubt it. It's February. The anger against the newspaper can't possibly burn white-hot for 8 1/2 months, can it? On the other hand, 8 1/2 months is plenty of time for McCain's "straight talk" bubble to either solidify or be popped. So I still think the false denials are the bigger problem. (It's always the cover-up...)

And so it begins

By Brendan Loy

Slowly but surely, the superdelegates are abandoning Hillary Clinton. It's been a slow trickle, but Obama has gained a net 27 supers in the last two weeks, according to the Associated Press. "Given where the race is at right now, I think it's very important for us to play a role around bringing the party together around the candidate that people have chosen," says one former Clinton super.

That sentiment will spread very, very rapidly unless Hillary's "firewall" works. Presumably, if she loses either Texas or Ohio, she'll drop out (as Bill suggested). But suppose she wins both states by narrow margins -- perhaps edging Obama in the Texas popular vote but losing the delegate count -- and decides to press on despite still being way behind by every measure (pledged delegates, total delegates, popular vote, states won, etc.). If that happens, I think there's no way the superdelegates will let this thing go all the way to April 22 (when Pennsylvania votes). The trickle will become a flash flood, the numbers will become totally lopsided, and Hillary will be hounded out of the race very quickly. Worst case, Mississippi on March 11 (the last pre-PA primary) becomes Obama's final coronation, and Hillary concedes that night or the next day.

The only thing Hillary can do to stop the bleeding is win, and win big.

P.S. For Hillary, there's a big advantage to bowing out gracefully, of course: if Obama loses in November, she immediately becomes the prohibitive favorite for 2012 -- perhaps truly inevitable this time. (This creates an interesting situation on both sides of the aisle, with Clinton and Romney both at least half-rooting for their own party's candidate to lose, so they can get another shot in four years.)

Sampson out at Indiana

By Brendan Loy

Indiana head coach Kelvin Sampson is walking away from Hoosierland -- a $750,000 walk of shame.

Dan Dakich is IU's interim head coach. It remains to be seen whether anything will come of the threatened mutiny by the team's players.

Rice: no dice

By Brendan Loy

Condoleezza Rice says she won't be running for veep.

Of course, they always say that. (For example...) But in Condi's case, I tend to actually believe it.

Speaking of potential vice presidential runningmates, today I stumbled upon this Obama veepstakes post from Marc Ambinder. It's a week old, but it's interesting. Just keep scrolling through the comments.

UT goes to war with News-Sentinel

By Brendan Loy

On the eve of perhaps the most important college-basketball game in the history of the state of Tennessee, tomorrow night's #1 vs. #2 showdown between Memphis and UT, the sports world here in Knoxville is, as you'd expect, abuzz with talk about... football.

Wait. What?

Well, it seems Knoxville News-Sentinel sports editor John Adams has created a mighty kerfuffle with his commentary on the Tennessee football team's recent discipline problems. On Tuesday, Adams wrote that Phil Fulmer should be fired for allowing his team to become "the college equivalent of the Cincinnati Bengals." He harshly criticized Fulmer for responding to punter Britton Colquitt's arrest by suspending him for five games, rather than dismissing him from the team. "Keep in mind this wasn’t Colquitt’s first brush with the law. Or second. Or third," Adams wrote. "How could Fulmer not dismiss Colquitt from the team after what could be fifth alcohol-related offense? Answer: Colquitt is a starter."

Oh, snap!

But Fulmer didn't take this lying down. Oh, hell no. He's a man! He's 57! So, in today's paper, at the very top of the sports section, there is a column by, ahem, guest columnist Phillip Fulmer. Explaining that the importance of the issues raised in Adams's column "compels me to do something I have never done in my career - respond directly in writing to a negative column in the newspaper," Fulmer writes:

Mr. Adams has never sat next to me in a prospect's living room, looking his mother or grandmother in the eyes and promising to treat the young man like he was my own child - giving him tough love when necessary and an opportunity to straighten up when that's in order. It is a promise I take seriously and will never abandon to please any columnist.

Ouch! He goes on:

Continue reading "UT goes to war with News-Sentinel" »

Election Question

By dcl

There are a fair number of District attorneys, Public Defenders, Judges, and Law Clerks in this country. Wouldn't it make sense to close court for a day and put one of them at every polling place across the country as a public voter advocate that any voter could ask for help? Or should campaigns come up with their own lawyer for every polling place to serve the same purpose? Or would it just be silly to send out a legion of lawyers every election? Obviously it would be best if the lawyers were completely neutral, though of course nobody is neutral. But would such a thing help make elections more free or more fair?

Positive signs for Obama in Texas

By Brendan Loy

This chart seems like excellent news for Obama. So does this article, and so do these numbers. And then there's Kos's prediction:

Today I talked to a reporter working on a piece on the Obama movement, who had just returned from Texas to see the Obama ground game close up. I asked if it lived up to the hype. He said that he had gone down there cynical, not expecting much, but had been utterly blown away. His piece will be out next week I think, and I can't wait to read the details. But bottom line is that Obama has run a volunteer-driven ground game while the Clintons thought they'd run an advertising air war.

There's a reason Obama is outperforming the polls and even my most optimistic vote predictions -- his volunteer-driven ground game is blowing whatever meager operation Clinton has completely out of the water.

The numbers are moving dramatically in Obama's direction right now. He's going to win Texas, and win it comfortably. Here's the thing -- if the Texas election were today, Obama would likely win it by 10 points, regardless what the polls say. His ground operation is that good.

By the time this thing finally rolls around, expect Wisconsin-like numbers. Obama's victory will be complete.

In an unrelated story, yesterday I asked for a world map of the Democrats Abroad results, and -- hurrah! -- somebody made one.

Also, following up on another post from yesterday: Mayor Bloomberg is backing off his "fraud" claim.

Hillary Clinton's strange debate tactics

By Brendan Loy

I wrote last night that Hillary Clinton seemingly arrived at yesterday's debate not having firmly chosen a side in her campaign's internal debate about whether to go negative or stay positive. As a result, her performance was a strange mixture of politeness and nastiness that I suspect put off a lot of viewers (the "Hillary did better" media CW notwithstanding).

Pondering it some more this morning, I think what's even more puzzling is the specifics of her debate strategy (or lack thereof). When you really stop and think about which points she went negative on, and which points she stayed positive about, you're left wondering what on earth she was thinking. It's as if Mark Penn convinced her to take a couple of meaningless "gotcha" potshots, but forgot to mention that she also needed to aggressively and explicitly connecting her substantive, issue-based contrasts to her broader thematic attacks on Obama's qualifications. So basically, she went negative where she should have stayed positive, and stayed positive where she arguably should have gone negative.

Her two main barbs against Obama were both on utterly insubstantial non-issues: the "plagiarism" nonsense, and the embarrassing but monumentally unimportant fact than an Obama supporter blanked out during a live TV interview. (Does Hillary really want to get into what the candidates' supporters and surrogates say or don't say?) Meanwhile, on substantive issues -- stuff that actually matters -- she was gentle almost to the point of timidity. She drew some contrasts, yes, but she didn't try very hard to make those contrasts stick by explicitly tying them in with her campaign's big-picture themes: experience vs. inexperience, words vs. actions, etc.

Continue reading "Hillary Clinton's strange debate tactics" »

Plagiarism?

By Brendan Loy

Sincerity you can Xerox:

Heh. (Hat tip: InstaAlthouse.)

UPDATE: But wait, there's more!

(Hat tip: Politico.)

P.S. She even plagiarized Tom Zbikowski! ;)

P.P.S. Is this a petty, childish line of attack, utterly devoid of substance? Yes! Should it be a non-issue? Yes! But it's Hillary's non-issue; she can't back away from it now.

Besides, she's the one who told us to "look at the YouTube." She said "it does raise questions." And she's right!

Debate open thread

By Brendan Loy

I don't know if I'll be doing much liveblogging of the Clinton-Obama debate (live now on CNN), but if you're watching, feel free to leave your comments here.

UPDATE: I thought Obama pretty clearly won that debate -- not just in the sense that Hillary didn't score a knockout punch, so Obama "wins" by default, but in the sense that he won the debate outright. Of course, I'm biased. But I thought Obama wiped the floor with Hillary during the middle part of the debate, where they were talking about the plagiarism question, the actions vs. words issue, and the general tone of the campaign, followed by the experience/judgment question. I thought that was the heart of the debate, and the part that'll be replayed and analyzed endlessly tomorrow -- and he looked great while she looked awful.

P.S. Caveat: I wasn't really paying attention to Hillary's closing statement, which everybody is saying was great.

P.P.S. You know that article I linked about how Hillary's camp was divided on whether to go negative or stay positive? Thinking about that debate and watching the highlights on CNN, it occurs to me that it seems like Hillary never really decided which course to take.

She took a couple of pretty sharp swipes at Obama (the disastrous "Xerox" comment and the reference to his supporter who couldn't name a single accomplishment), but she seemed to be attacking only reluctantly, and she didn't stay on the offensive. And then came the moment at the end where she said she was "honored" be on stage with Obama -- a man she had just gotten through basically calling a dirty rotten plagiarist who isn't ready for prime time, is all talk and no action, and has never accomplished anything. Huh? Either go negative or stay positive, but don't try to do both at once. That really doesn't work.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Transcript here. One of my favorite Obama lines was in response to his supposed focus on style over substance:

These are very specific, concrete, detailed proposals, many of them which I've been working on for years now.  Senator Clinton has a fine record. So do I.  And I'm happy to have a debate on the issues, but what we shouldn't be spending time doing is tearing each other down.  We should be spending time lifting the country up.

This was good too, of course.

Tennessee news

By Brendan Loy

Three items of news today (or in one case, yesterday) concerning the Volunteer State. First, as you may already have heard, Georgia has declared war on Tennessee -- er, legislatively speaking -- in a border dispute over water. To arms! Fear, fire, foes, awake!! The Georgians are coming, the Georgians are coming!!!

Second, the epidemic of Tennessee coaches getting divorced continues, as Titans coach Jeff Fisher is divorcing his wife of 21 years. Vicky Fulmer, you may want to get a lawyer, just in case. ;) No, but seriously, that's sad. Divorce sucks.

Last but not least, Lady Vols superstar Candace Parker is skipping her senior season to go pro.

BOOM!

By Brendan Loy

The military has released video of the spy satellite's fuel tank exploding upon impact from the missile. w00t!

You can watch it on YouTube, via Fox News, here, or download the military's video in WMV form here. (Hat tip: SpaceWeather.)

Also, here's another picture of falling debris from the satellite shoot-down.

A couple of stories about people witnesing re-entering satellite debris, from MSNBC and Space.com.

And, you know that incredible photo of satellite debris & the eclipsed moon that I posted early this morning? Well, it made the local news out in Oregon.

Speaking of the eclipse, here's an awesome shot of the International Space Station in front of the partially eclipsed Moon!

Check out this stunning eclipse photo, too. It was taken in Hamedan, Iran.

This long-exposure shot is neat, too. More here.

I'm officially a lawyer

By Brendan Loy

Almost seven months after finishing the Colorado Bar Exam, about 4 1/2 months after learning I'd passed, and over 10 weeks since my application for admission was officially approved, I just minutes ago took the Colorado Attorney Oath of Admission -- administered by Judge Susano here in Tennessee -- and thus I am now officially, finally, a lawyer. (Alas, in a rare oversight, I didn't think to get a photo or video of myself being sworn in. Uh-oh: does that mean it didn't happen?)

Of course, the Colorado Bar doesn't know yet that I'm its newest member. I still have to send them my signed oath form in the mail, along with a bunch of other paperwork. But I think that mailing, and everything that follows it -- the receipt of my license, etc. -- is just a formality. I believe that, as of today, I could, if I wanted to, jump on a plane to Denver and, upon my arrival, dispense legal advice. :) More consequentially, I believe I can now accurately describe myself on a resumé as "certified to practice law in the state of Colorado."

The long delay, by the way, wasn't engendered by some character & fitness problem or anything like that. My formal approval was delayed first by the need to fly out to Denver for that CLE ethics class, and then by delays in sending in my driving records (which are perfectly clean, I just procrastinated the process a bit), and then it took me forever to deal with all the back-and-forth paperwork that was necessary for me to take the oath out-of-state. I didn't really have much motivation to hurry, since I don't need that Colorado certification as long as I'm clerking in Tennessee. But anyway, now it's finally done, and I can call myself an attorney without any qualifications or caveats. :)

So... you may all now throw your best lawyer jokes at me! Have at it!

P.S. The next time I'm in Denver, I think it would be proper to formally celebrate my admission to the Colorado Bar by going to a Colorado bar. Kristy? V? You in? ;)

More on Tim Aher

By Brendan Loy

Here is the obituary of Notre Dame 2L Timothy Aher, who died in London over the weekend. News articles about his sad and untimely passing have also been published in the Notre Dame newspaper and in the local Connecticut newspaper of the area where he grew up. A memorial mass was held at the Basilica on Tuesday (video here) for Tim and Connor McGrath, the Notre Dame sophomore who also died over the weekend.

There's much more, including a photo from the CT paper, in the Tim Aher & Connor McGrath memorial post, which I've updated several times. (There's a fair amount of search-engine traffic coming to that page, so I'm trying to keep everything related to the tragedies consolidated there.) You can also find more photos of Tim at this Photobucket page. According to Chicago radio station WHPK, "friends from law school have started [it] to compile a photo album to give to Tim's family."

Also, from the obituary: "In lieu of flowers, the family asks that contributions be made to Connecticut Legal Services, Inc., 62 Washington St., Middletown, CT 06457, in Tim's name."

Hillary's dilemma

By Brendan Loy

The final (?) stretch of the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination begins with tonight's debate in Austin. In preparation for which, the New York Times asks: Can Hillary afford to go negative on Obama? Can she afford not to go negative?

When Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton meets Senator Barack Obama at a one-on-one debate in Austin on Thursday night, one of her final opportunities to change the course of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, she will again face the challenge that has repeatedly stymied her: how to discredit her popular opponent without hurting herself.

Even now, after a string of defeats, her advisers are divided over how to proceed as they head toward what could be her last stands, in Ohio and Texas on March 4.

Some — led by Mark Penn, her chief strategist — have been pushing Mrs. Clinton to draw sharper and deeper contrasts with Mr. Obama, arguing that she has no other option, campaign officials said.

Others, particularly Mandy Grunwald, her media adviser, have pushed for a less aggressive approach, arguing that attacks would not help Mrs. Clinton’s campaign in an environment in which she is increasingly appearing to struggle, aides said.

My default setting would be assume that Mark Penn is wrong. ;) But really, I think Hillary's in a no-win situation here. Polls show that most Democratic voters already like both candidates; they just like Obama better. So Hillary isn't going to change the course of the race simply by staying positive. Saying "look at me, I'm awesome!" isn't going to sway Obama's supporters, because most of them already think she's awesome; they just think Obama is more awesome.

So she needs to go negative (or to "draw contrasts"). But she can't, because if she does, she'll a) look desperate, b) turn voters off (voters hate negative campaigning, even when they're in the process of being swayed by it), and c) cause the media to say repeatedly that she looks desperate and is turning voters off. (There's a certain self-fulfilling quality at work there.) All of which will be exacerbated by the political "facts on the ground": John McCain has wrapped up the GOP nomination, and is already turning his fire on Obama, echoing many of Hillary's talking points. Most Democrats, whoever they support, now assume that Obama is going to be their nominee, and thus, to "go negative" on him is to attack the likely Democratic nominee. To do so using virtually the same talking points that the presumptive Republican nominee is using -- well, that's high treason! Never mind that Hillary was using those same talking points first; to ramp up their use now, and thus potentially damage the guy who's probably going to be the nominee, just looks really bad.

With each passing Obama victory, it gets harder and harder to attack him without being accused of buffenbargering. And yet, by the same token, with each passing Obama victory, it becomes more and more essential for Hillary to draw contrasts! It's a real dilemma she finds herself in -- very likely a insolvable one, IMHO. She's really stuck between Barack and a hard place.

(I'll be here all week, folks...)

Hoop heaven

By Brendan Loy

Not only did Duke lose yesterday, which is always a good thing, but anticlimax was avoided as Memphis and Tennessee rolled over Tulane and Auburn, respectively, to set up Saturday's epic #1 vs. #2 battle for the Tennessee state championship.

Alas, Saturday's other marquee game -- the BracketBusters Battle of the Bulldogs between Butler and Drake -- lost a bit of its oomph Tuesday, as Drake lost to Bradley, its second loss in three games after winning 21 straight and starting 13-0 in the Missouri Valley Conference. What once looked it might potentially be an showdown between two mid-majors ranked in the Top 10 will instead pit #8 Butler against #18-and-soon-to-fall-further Drake. (Butler, for its part, won yesterday to enter BracketBuster Saturday on a nine-game winning streak.)

Regardless, it's going to be a helluva weekend of hoops -- starting tonight, with nationally televised games for both the Irish (vs. Pitt at 7pm on ESPN) and the Trojans (vs. Oregon at 11pm on FSN). Here's the full BracketBusters schedule, and here are the full Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday schedules. A few highlights, with BracketBusters games marked as "BB":

Continue reading "Hoop heaven" »

Obama wins Dems Abroad; Joe Loy triumphs again!

By Brendan Loy

Two weeks and two days after Super Tuesday, the results of the Democrats Abroad caucuses -- which began that day, and continued through Potomac Tuesday -- are finally in, and the winner is... Barack Obama, with 65.6% of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 32.7%. (Somehow, this blowout victory only earns Obama a half-delegate edge, 2 1/2 to 2. Go figure.)

[UPDATE: Here's a PDF file with detailed, official results, broken down by country -- indeed, by "voting center" within each country. It's a rich treasure trove of information. For example, Obama won Canada, 1,398 to 807, while Clinton dominated in the Dominican Republic by a Romney-in-Utah-like margin of 606 to 65. But Obama wasn't universally weak in Latin countries; he won Mexico 883 to 626. Hillary was strong in Israel, winning 190-159, but Obama routed her in Indonesia, 179-54, perhaps due to heavy madrassa turnout. (I kid, I kid!) Seriously, someone needs to make a world map of these results!]

That means Joe Loy, who had already clinched the best prediction record in the Irish Trojan Super Tuesday Prediction Contest for both parties combined, is also the winner in the Democrat-only contest. He finishes with 22 points out of a possible 24, having gotten only two contests wrong: American Samoa (where he picked Obama) and Delaware (where he picked Clinton). That 22-of-24 record ties him with Sam Cialek, but Loy wins the tiebreaker because his prediction of Clinton's delegate total in California, 190, is closer to her actual total, 203, than is Cialek's prediction, 170.

I, Brendan Loy, finish third with a 21-of-24 record. :) And if only I'd gotten one more state right, I'd have beaten 'em both, because my tiebreaker prediction was awesome -- 199! Why, oh why, did I pick Clinton in North Dakota and Utah? That doesn't even make sense! I think my vote was miscounted! Fraud!

Bloomberg cries "fraud" in Obama tally

By Brendan Loy

What on earth is Michael Bloomberg on about?

Is he angling for a VP nod or something? Obama-Bloomberg '08? The wunderkind and the supernanny?

Seriously, though, WTF? Is this a joke that the Post took out of context? Or has Mayor Mike finally gone off the deep end? It's my understanding that both presidential campaigns, and all involved parties, agree that the Obama undercount was some sort of innocent error, so Bloomy seems to be going off the reservation here.

NYT: John McCain is a dirty old man

By Brendan Loy

In case you haven't heard, there's a John McCain sex scandal (ewww) in today's New York Times. Well, there's no actual allegation of sex, per se -- but a woman is involved, anyway, and allegations of "romance" ... or allegations of suspicions of romance ... or something. McCain denies everything and says the New York Times smells like poo. Personally, I don't find any of it very compelling, and it does seem rather fishy that the Times sat on the story for months before finally unleashing it once McCain sewed up the nomination. I mean, really, WTF?

Oscar pool reminder

By Brendan Loy

The Oscars are Sunday, so now would be a good time to enter the 4th annual Irish Trojan Oscar Pool!

This post will stay on top of the homepage for a while; new posts will appear below.

A lunar eclipse and a manmade meteor

By Brendan Loy

Weird things happen during total lunar eclipses. Two eclipses ago, during totality, the Red Sox won their first World Series since 1918. Last night, also during totality, the Navy shot a freakin' missile at a freakin' satellite and blew it out of the sky.

Speaking of which: an Oregon-based blogger named Sherry Holub, a.k.a. "scorpy808," managed, incredibly, to capture a photo of what was almost certainly a piece of that spy satellite burning up on re-entry into the atmosphere -- right next to the eclipsed moon in the sky. Here it is:

Wow. Totally awesome. I'm so jealous. :)

(Republished with Holub's permission. In addition to her LiveJournal blog, she also runs a company called JV Media Design.)

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

The U.S. Navy successfully shot down an inoperable spy satellite before it crashed to Earth, the Pentagon confirms.

Missile hits satellite; Earth eclipses Moon

By Brendan Loy

It's a hit! The missile hit the spy satellite! No further details are available yet. [UPDATE, 12:05 AM: According to the AP, "In a statement announcing that the Navy missile struck the satellite, the Pentagon said, 'Confirmation that the fuel tank has been fragmented should be available within 24 hours.' It made no mention of early indications, but a defense official close to the situation said later that officials monitoring the collision saw what appeared to be an explosion, indicating that the fuel tank was hit."]

Folks on the west coast and in Canada: Did you see anything unusual in the sky -- like a "swarm of meteors", perhaps?

[UPDATE, 12:25 AM: Blogger "scorpy808" captured what appears to be a photo of the eclipsed Moon with a piece of re-entering satellite debris right next to it!. OMG! Awesome! (I found this by searching Google Blog Search for the word "satellite" and the phrase "I saw.") And here is another possible sighting report. Not to mention Lisa's in comments!]

Back here in the southeast, the only thing unusual in the sky right now is a very reddish moon, which is just starting to show a sliver of white on the lower right edge as it begins to emerge from the Earth's umbra. As I mentioned below, the clouds eventually cleared and Becky, Loyette and I were able to see it. Well... Loyette may not have seen it, per se, but she was in its presence, anyway. :)

Here's a photo I took of the eclipse at 10:45 PM:

That's Saturn at the bottom of the photo, and the star Regulus at the top.

UPDATE: Here's a wider view, taken at 10:56. The clouds appear orange due to the Greater Knoxville light dome:

Reader Ken Wagner sends along eclipse photos from Nashville. Thanks, Ken! Others' photos can be found here and here.

Clinton introducer goes ballistic on "two-faced" "wunderkind" Obama

By Brendan Loy

Hillary Clinton supporter Tom Buffenbarger, president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, went off the deep end last night in true Zell Miller-esque fashion, as his introduction of Senator Clinton turned into a 12-minute tirade against Barack Obama.

Buffenbarger derisively dismissed Obama as a mere "wunderkind," a "man in love with the microphone," and "a poet, not a fighter." He repeatedly and pointedly called him "the junior senator from Illinois" (as if Hillary isn't the junior senator from New York?). He compared Obama to "Janus, the two-faced Roman god of ancient times." And then he really got going:

The Barack Show is playing to rave reviews, sold out on college campus after college campus, standing-room-only crowds to hear his silver-tongued oration. Hope! Change! Yes, we can! Give me a break! I've got news for all the latte-drinking, Prius-driving, Birkenstock-wearing, trust-fund babies crowding in to hear him speak! This guy won't last a round against the Republican attack machine!

Heh. But the most offensive and ridiculous line, IMHO, was Buffenbarger's blatantly anti-intellectual argument -- repeated twice -- that Obama can't "fight" for the working class because he was "the editor of the Harvard Law Review." I guess Hillary's stint as an editor of the Yale Review of Law and Social Action establishes her credentials as a real union stiff?

Anyway, here's the video:

I suggest the creation of a new verb: "to buffenbarger," meaning "to engage in an inappropriately vitriolic attack on a member of one's own political party."

To their credit, Hillary's supporters were not impressed by Buffenbarger's buffenbargering. In the above video clip, you can see the supporters standing behind the podium growing visibly uncomfortable -- several of them sit down during the speech -- and, as Fox News points out, "midway through his remarks, [Buffenbarger] could barely be heard over the yells of the crowd - which was alternately shouting for Hillary and agitating for him to leave the stage." Here's a video, taken from the crowd, of Buffenbarger being heckled and booed.

More here. (Hat tip: Andrew Leyden.)

Don't forget...

By Brendan Loy

...about the eclipse tonight! It's the last total lunar eclipse until December 2010 -- which will be almost two years into the Obama Administration! :)

Visibility map here. Totality goes from 10:01 PM to 10:51 PM EST, with mid-eclipse at 10:26. The partial portion begins at 8:43 PM and ends at 12:09 AM.

UPDATE, 8:44 PM: Here in Knoxville, it's completely overcast at the moment. Perhaps it'll clear, but I'm pessimistic about getting to see the last total lunar eclipse of the decade. :(

In a not-really-related story, Brian Williams stated on NBC Nightly News that the weather west of Hawaii has now improved to the point where the military thinks it probably will be able to go ahead with tonight's satellite shoot-down attempt, around 10:30 PM EST. More here. Apparently Defense Secretary Gates gets to give the final order.

UPDATE, 10:27 PM: Just stepped outside with Becky and Loyette (the latter wrapped up in a blanket, sound asleep) and caught a glimpse of the eclipsed Moon, in between clouds. Yay! Baby's first eclipse! (She'll be almost 3 years old when the next one rolls around...)

The Michelle Obama problem

By Brendan Loy

Is the Obama campaign's reaction (or lack thereof) to the Michelle Obama "proud of my country" kerfuffle disturbingly similar to John Kerry's initial non-response to the Swift Boaters? Jonathan Martin thinks so, and I fear he may have a point.

Personally, I think it's pretty obvious what Michelle Obama meant. Even before Barack Obama said this...

"What she meant was, this is the first time that she's been proud of the politics of America. Because she's pretty cynical about the political process, and with good reason, and she's not alone. But she has seen large numbers of people get involved in the process, and she's encouraged."

...I figured that's exactly what Michelle was trying to say. Frankly, it's pretty ludicrous to suppose that she actually believes the literal meaning of her words; it's perfectly obvious to a fair-minded observer that this was a gaffe, a botched line, not a revelatory Freudian slip exposing the dark inner reaches of Michelle Obama's unpatriotic soul. But the facial implausibility of the less charitable explanation won't stop people like Rush Limbaugh from saying things like, "Doesn't it just grate on you that liberals in general are not proud of their country, period?" Nor will it stop those statements from damaging Obama's campaign (if only by firing up Republicans to levels of hold-your-nose-and-vote-for-McCain-ism that at least begin to approach what we'd see if the likely opponent was Hillary Clinton.)

In a way, this is a lot like a different John Kerry controversy: the kerfuffle over his "botched joke" in 2006 about American soldiers and/or President Bush getting "stuck in Iraq." As I wrote at the time, it was perfectly obvious what Kerry meant, that the whole controversy was -- at its substantive core -- much ado about nothing. Yet it destroyed Kerry's '08 presidential ambitions (thank goodness) and caused him to basically slink off the stage lest he damage Democratic prospects in that year's election.

I suspect that most Americans are inclined to be more forgiving of a gaffe by a presidential candidate's wife -- particularly when it comes nine months before the general election -- than they were of a gaffe by a once and future (or so we thought then) candidate. But to be forgiven, you have to actually ask for forgiveness. Instead of doing that, Team Obama let this thing fester for a while. Now they're finally starting to do some damage control, but I'm afraid the damage may already be done. In a Feiler Faster/Two Electorates world, the public absorbs sensational, controversial news -- the type with sufficient oomph to break through the bubble of political apathy that surrounds most people in their everyday lives -- very quickly, yet is very slow to absorb more mundane contradictory information. So when something like this happens, you have to strike fast in an effort to dilute the impact of the initial information while it's still being absorbed into the public consciousness. A full news cycle later, it may already be too late for that. Barack Obama, already a crypto-Muslim Manchurian Candidate in the eyes of many, may now be a crypto-Muslim Manchurian Candidate who steals other people's speeches and whose wife hates America. Great.

P.S. The plagiarism thing would normally be too arcane to break through the apathy bubble. But although I wasn't listening to talk radio or watching cable news yesterday, I suspect it may have piggybacked in with the Michelle Obama thing, thus allowing a silly quasi-scandal to become a potentially indelible part of the broader public's impressions of Obama.

Shuttle lands; satellite shot uncertain

By Brendan Loy

The Space Shuttle Atlantis landed safely in Florida this morning, clearing the way for the Navy to proceed with plans to shoot down the errant spy satellite as early as tonight. But those plans could be delayed by weather:

Navy gunners in the Pacific were watching the sea and sky Wednesday, waiting for perfect conditions to take a kill shot on an errant satellite 150 miles above them.

They have just a 10-second window to fire, a Pentagon official said, and may not be able to take their shot on their first opportunity at 10:30 p.m. ET Wednesday.

"It's not enough to say 'no,' but we're watching the weather," the official told reporters at the Pentagon. "It's on the margin."

The cruiser USS Lake Erie will get one 10-second window each of the next nine or 10 days to fire an interceptor missile that will destroy the faltering spy satellite before it can tumble to Earth and -- possibly -- release a cloud of toxic gas. ...

[S]wells in the Pacific Ocean west of Hawaii [are] running slightly higher than [the] Navy would like.

The National Weather Service forecast 12- to 15-foot seas west of Hawaii Wednesday with a storm developing in the area.

The United States plans to spend up to $60 million to try to destroy the satellite even though there is only a remote possibility the satellite could fall to Earth, survive re-entry and spew toxic gas in a populated area, said James Jeffrey, deputy national security adviser.

   "The regret factor of not acting clearly outweighed the regret factor of acting," he said.

Either that, or this is a convenient opportunity to get away with doing a missile test, as some have speculated.

Hillary's slow collapse

By Brendan Loy

The final result in Wisconsin last night was a startling 58 to 41 margin for Obama -- closer to the unweighted exit polls (60-40) than the "final," weighted ones quoted by Fox (55-43). I'm no polling expert, but it occurs to me that maybe the "weighting" process somehow took into account the degree to which exit polls in previous contests had overstated Obama's support -- but this time, that didn't happen.

If so, it could be another sign of Obama gaining strength. Not only is he winning, or damn near winning, many of Hillary's core demographics (women, low-income voters, non-college-educated voters, etc.), he may also be converting the fake-Obama-supporter demographic into real Obama supporters. Where, two weeks ago, some voters would tell people, including pollsters and exit pollsters, that they supported Obama -- the hip, young, black, inspirational candidate with the celebrity music video and the liberal hipster allies -- but would then cast their ballot in secret for the "safe" candidate, Hillary ... now those people are actually voting for Obama.

Just a theory. And probably a wrong one. :) But I thought I'd throw it out there.

On a related note, Michael Crowley looks at the Collapse of Hillary. But the candidate herself seems not to have noticed. For the third straight election night, Hillary's "concession" speech failed to mention that she'd lost anything, or that there had even been an election held that day. And today her campaign has opened a new front in the delegate-counting war, collecting all their ridiculous spin in one convenient "hub." It's like they don't realize they're losing -- like they're whistling past the graveyard. News flash to Team Billary: you can't win the nomination purely on back-room machinations. At some point, you'll have to win some more primaries. A bunch more, actually. Not just Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico. You'll need those -- by wide margins -- but you'll need others, too. And that seems like an increasingly dubious prospect.

By the way, here are yesterday's speeches.

Life imitates The West Wing

By Brendan Loy

I believe this has already been noted here on the blog: there are eerie similarities between this year's presidential race and the campaign in the last two seasons of The West Wing.

A fireball, a spy satellite, and an eclipse

By Brendan Loy

Did any readers up in the Northwest (i.e., Washington, Oregon, Idaho or Montana) happen to see the fireball yesterday morning at around 5:30 AM? (Video here; lots of local news articles here). I'd love to see one of those someday...

Speaking of skywatching events, don't forget about the total lunar eclipse tonight. Mid-totality, at 10:26 PM EST, will be visible all across the 48 contiguous states. And those in the Pacific Northwest may also want to keep a weather eye to the western sky right around then -- i.e., approx. 7:30ish local time -- because, as I mentioned yesterday, they might be able to see some spy-satellite fragments streaking across the sky. Just call it Fireball Country!

Bill Clinton on "experience"

By Brendan Loy

Heh. (Hat tip: Sully.)

For all you delegate-counters...

By Brendan Loy

You can get Wisconsin results by congressional district here. Based on my crude delegate math, I'm coming up with an estimated total of Obama 42, Clinton 32. I explain in detail after the jump.

Anyway, I'm going to bed now, but Hawaii results will eventually be available here and here.

Oh, and that meaningless Washington beauty-contest primary? Those results are here -- though, annoyingly, you have to go to a different page to get the "percentage of precincts reporting" stat. Anyway, with 36% reporting, Hillary has an slight lead! She could move to 3-0 in meaningless primaries! Suggested victory speech: "First we're going to go to Michigan! And then we're going to go to Florida! And then we're going to lose the Washington caucuses, but win the meaningless primary! And then we're going to go to Denver and lose the nomination! YEAAARRH!!!"

Continue reading "For all you delegate-counters..." »

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects that Barack Obama will win the Wisconsin Democratic primary.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects that John McCain will win the Republican primary in Wisconsin.

The polls are closed

By Brendan Loy

Wolf Blitzer says CNN projects John McCain "will win, will win" Wisconsin. On the Dem side, "the exit polls indicate that Barack Obama does have a lead, but CNN is not ready to make a projection at this point."

UPDATE, 9:19 PM: Fox calls Wisconsin for Obama. Says the "final exit polls" are 55-43 in his favor.

UPDATE 9:22 PM: CNN calls it too.

An Obama blowout?

By Brendan Loy

I want to ignore the leaked, unweighted exit polls, given their history of being drastically wrong (see: the Seven-Hour Presidency of John Kerry; Obama by 4 in New Hampshire; Obama winning Arizona, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New Mexico on Super Tuesday; etc.) ... I want to look away, really I do ... I don't want to blog about them ... but I can't help myself!

I'm hearing that after two waves of data, Wisconsin looks like a blowout in favor of Obama, in the neighborhood of 60 percent to 40 percent.

Also:

Democratic officials with access to exit polls say Sen. Obama looks like he’s headed for a huge win in today’s Wisconsin primary. The polls could turn out to be off, as they have in the past. But the officials’ revelation reflects the chatter in the campaigns in advance of the 9 p.m. Eastern poll closing.

The party officials said that if the trends reflect in the interviews with hundreds of Badger State voters, the news out of the primary will be: Obama encroached deeply into three of Clinton’s core groups of voters — women, those with no college degree and those with lower incomes — while giving up none of his own.

I need a twelve-step program or something. :)

P.S. More here, with (apparently weighted) numbers: 51-49 Obama among women; also 51-49 Obama among households with incomes under $50,000. If those are anywhere close to correct, that's absolutely devastating for Hillary.

Video here.

Cheesehead Tuesday

By Brendan Loy

It's Badger Tuesday... or, as I prefer to call it, Cheesehead Tuesday!

The polls will close in Wisconsin at 9:00 PM EST -- which, coincidentally, is when the Hawaii caucuses will begin. Hawaii caucuses begin at midnight EST and end at 12:30 AM. Oh, and let's not forget Washington state's utterly meaningless $10 million beauty contest... actually, on second thought, yeah, let's forget it. :)

Anyway, in honor of Cheesehead Tuesday, I give you... nearly naked hotties for Ron Paul! (SFW.)

On a more serious note, Fly On The Wall offers an excellent critique and analysis of the the various arguments about legitimacy vis a vis delegates, superdelegates, the popular vote, etc.

And speaking of superdelegates, here is a brief history of how they came into being, and why. Though, on that point, I have a slightly different theory:

HILLARY: "Do you know how the Superdelegates first came into being? They were Pledged Delegates once, taken by the dark powers. Tortured and mutilated…"

[The Superdelegate growls.]

HILLARY: "...a ruined and terrible form of life. And now... perfected. My fighting Automatic Delegates."

HILLARY: "Whom do you serve?"

SUPERDELEGATE: "Hillary!!"

Yes, I suck at Photoshop. :)

Anyway... the other big story of the day is the Obama "plagiarism" scandal, which may -- may -- be hurting Obama in the polls. More importantly, will it hurt him at the polls, in Wisconsin tonight? We shall see.

Personally, I can't believe the media isn't making the obvious connection between this latest example of Obama plagiarism, and the far more blatant example that's been hiding in plain sight:

Can we co-opt a cartoon show's slogan as a presidential campaign rallying cry? Yes we can! :)

Heh

By Rebecca Loy

Check out the comments on this article about Subway's spokesperson, Jared, celebrating his 10th year of endorsing sammiches.

What the?

By dcl

Seriously, if this is true Clinton has lost any chance of my support in any election ever full stop.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: In fairness, the Clinton campaign promptly denied the report in question, and pledged not to try and "poach" Obama's elected delegates. The Obama campaign has also ruled out "poaching."

Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean Hillary's supporters in Michigan won't try to poach "Obama's" Uncommitted delegates at the district conventions on March 29...

HD-DVD is dead, Blu-Ray is king

By David K.

Toshiba, the leading manufacturer and proponent of the HD-DVD format, announced today that they will cease manufacturing HD-DVD players, officially ending the high-def format war.  The announcement was expected, as HD-DVD had suffered a huge series of setbacks in recent weeks.  Early last month, Warner Brothers, one of the three studios that were backing HD-DVD (Paramont and Universal being the other two), announced it was switching to Blu-Ray.  This was followed by announcements from Netflix and Blockbuster, two of the three leading video rental companies in the U.S., that they were going exclusively Blu-Ray.  Mega-retailer Wal*Mart had also announced the decision to switch exclusively to Blu-Ray.

HD-DVD looked like it had a good start; its players were cheaper and were selling better than Blu-Ray. However, cheaper did not win out in this generation, as it had during the VHS/Betamax battle a generation ago.  Sony, the major backer of Blu-Ray, ends a long string of failed media formats (including Betamax) with the success of Blu-Ray, but it now must face competition from the emerging digital download market.

In any case, if you haven't chosen a high definition player yet, Blu-Ray is the way to go.  And if you, like me, bet on HD-DVD well, you can still upscale your regular DVD's using that now deprecated Toshiba player.  Now to go watch Transformers on HD-DVD and cry into my popcorn.

#1 Memphis vs. #2 Tennessee? It's on.

By Brendan Loy

Move over, Kentucky. Out of the way, North Carolina. The center of the college-basketball world is the state of Tennessee.

Thanks to losses last week by #2 Duke and #3 Kansas, the Tennessee Volunteers have climbed to #2 in the polls this week, just in time for their Saturday showdown with in-state foe Memphis, the nation's #1-ranked and only undefeated team. The Jay Johnson Invitational is now also the Game. Of. The. Year.

The Tigers and Vols each have one tune-up remaining before the big game: on Wednesday night, Memphis visits 15-9 Tulane and Tennessee hosts 13-10 Auburn. Both with be heavily favored, of course, but even if they lose, it'll still technically be a #1 vs. #2 game on Saturday, since the new polls don't come out until Monday.

Memphis-Tennessee actually almost happened in last year's Elite Eight. If the Vols hadn't blown an 8,000-point lead (okay, that may be a slight exaggeration, but they were way ahead) against Ohio State in the Sweet Sixteen, the South Regional Final would have been an all-Tennessee affair, with a trip to the Final Four on the line. Alas, that wasn't to be. But hey, a regular-season #1 vs. #2 showdown is a pretty good consolation prize.

Anyway, it should be a hell of a game, and I'm looking forward to watching it. Jay will be rooting for the Tigers, his undergrad alma mater, over the Vols, his law-school alma mater. I definitely know what that's like. :) Personally, though, given that I have no allegiance to Memphis, I think I'll stick with the local boys, and root for the East Tennessee team over the West Tennessee team. Go Vols!

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Fidel Castro has resigned as president of Cuba, according to a statement in state-run newspaper Granma.

Satellite shoot-down set for Thursday Wednesday night during lunar eclipse, southwest of Hawaii

By Brendan Loy

The Navy will try to shoot down the errant spy satellite on Thursday, assuming the Space Shuttle lands as planned on Wednesday.

UPDATE: According to SpaceWeather.com, the attempt will actually be Wednesday night here in North America, which is early Thursday morning Greenwich Mean Time. Here's what SpaceWeather says:

Rumor has it that the US Navy may make its first attempt to hit USA 193 this Wednesday evening as the satellite passes over the Pacific Ocean. An air traffic advisory warns pilots to avoid a patch of ocean near Maui from 4:30 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. Hawaii time on Feb. 20th (0230 - 0500 UT, Feb. 21st). This would center the missile strike on the darkness of Wednesday's lunar eclipse and possibly render reentering debris visible from the west coast of North America.

So there you go. From the linked map, it appears that the actual shoot-down attempt will originate a bit to the southwest of the Hawaiian islands, and will occur shortly before 5:30 PM Hawaii time (7:30 Pacific, 10:30 Eastern). If the satellite were to continue on its orbital path, its track would take it up over southern British Columbia a few minutes later, so assuming that any re-entering debris roughly follows the momentum of the satellite's track (which seems like it would be the case), the Pacific Northwest may have the best chance of seeing re-entering debris tomorrow night.

Incidentally, about that total lunar eclipse: mid-eclipse is at 10:26 PM EST. Here's a map showing the eclipse's visibility. Practically all of North America can see it.

Anyway, back to the spy satellite: according to this site, a second air-traffic advisory suggests the military has plans for a second shoot-down attempt Thursday night -- same time, same place -- if the Wednesday attempt fails.

Continue reading "Satellite shoot-down set for Thursday Wednesday night during lunar eclipse, southwest of Hawaii" »

It's a bird, it's a plane...

By Brendan Loy

Sky-watchers in the southeast and southwest, don't forget about the ISS/Shuttle flyover tonight.

UPDATE: We drove out to a spot with a clear western horizon and watched for the ISS and Shuttle. But we only saw one dot in the sky, not two. I guess they must still have been really close together, so they weren't distinguishable.

R.I.P., Tim Aher & Connor McGrath

By Brendan Loy

The university has released the name of the Notre Dame student who died in London over the weekend. As I feared, it was a law student: 2L Timothy Aher.

In addition to being a Domer, Tim was also a Nutmegger, a resident of Brookfield, Connecticut. He was 25. The university says he "died tragically and unexpectedly Sunday (Feb. 17) in Ilford, England, a suburb of London."

He's the second Notre Dame Law School student to die in just over 10 months. On April 7 of last year, 3L Ryan Rudd died of cancer, less than a month-and-a-half before he would have graduated. He was awarded his J.D. posthumously; his mother received it in a very emotional moment at commencement.

I imagine the Class of 2009 will be torn up about Tim's death in much the same way that ours was about Ryan's. What a tragedy.

Anyway, in the same press release, the university also released more details about the unrelated death of Notre Dame sophomore Connor McGrath, a 20-year-old who intended to major in business:

A resident of Siegfried Hall, he had spent the night in the room of a friend in Dillon Hall, where he previously had resided. His body was discovered by friends at approximately 1:40 p.m. ... Investigators from the unit and the county’s deputy coroner made a preliminary evaluation, pending an autopsy today, that the death appeared to be from natural causes, possibly related to McGrath’s history of diabetes.

A memorial Mass for both students will be held Tuesday at 10 p.m. at the Basilica.

May they both rest in peace. And I know we'll all be keeping their family and friends in our thoughts and prayers. I think particularly of the parents, as I sit here with Loyette sleeping peacefully in my lap; I can't imagine the wrenching pain of losing a child just as they're becoming an adult. May they find some source of comfort in the terribly sad days, indeed years, ahead.

UPDATE, 2/19: Here's a Tim Aher remembrance, with a photo, from blogger Mark Solotroff. Solotroff is in a band, and last November, he and his bandmates were hosted by Tim while in London on tour. A couple of earlier blog posts about their adventures can be found here and here.

Also, another blogger remembers Connor, with several photos. And a Facebook group has been created in his honor.

The Notre Dame Observer has separate articles today about Tim's death and about Connor's death. An excerpt from the article about Tim:

Aher, 25, was a music lover with eccentric interests and a warm personality, his friends said.

"He was a beautiful and rare and amazing person," [Adam] Zayed said.

A memorial Mass was celebrated Monday afternoon in the Alumni Hall chapel. Father John Coughlin, a law professor, presided. Approximately 100 people, mostly students and faculty from the Law School, attended the Mass.

"People from all walks and cliques in the Law School were there today," [Artie] Merschat said. "He brought the Law School together."

Read the whole thing, including an amusing anecdote about Tim's "hipster subjugation of death metal culture."

UPDATE, 2/20: Here's an article about Tim's death from the Danbury News-Times in Connecticut. It includes a photo, of which I've added a scaled-down version to the top of this post (along with a photo of Connor from his Facebook group).

UPDATE, 2/21: Here's Tim's obituary.

In addition, via Chicago radio station WHPK -- where I guess Tim used to work -- I learn that "friends from law school have started to compile a photo album to give to Tim's family." It has 45 photos and counting. And there's also a Tim Aher blog.

The memorial mass for Tim and Connor was held at the Basilica on Tuesday. Here's the Observer article about it, and here's a WNDU article, with video.

Also from the Observer: a letter to the editor praising the campus for coming together in unity at the memorial mass, and an op-ed by Father Lou DelFra titled, "Tragedy: a time of God's absence or presence?"

Funeral arrangements in Connecticut are as follows: "The family will receive friends at the Valley Presbyterian Church, 21 West Whisconier Rd., Brookfield, CT between the hours of 3:00pm and 5:30 p.m. on Saturday, February 23, 2008. A memorial service will be held at the church at 5:30 p.m."

Also: "In lieu of flowers, the family asks that contributions be made to Connecticut Legal Services, Inc., 62 Washington St., Middletown, CT 06457, in Tim's name."

P.S. Out of respect for the families, please let's not speculate on anything that hasn't been made public, and/or widely reported by a reputable source, with regard to the individual circumstances of either student's death. Thanks.

P.P.S. Also, please let's keep any arguments about side-issues from the previous post confined there, rather than allowing them to spill over to this thread, which should really be for memorialization and mourning.

I have a man-crush on Kevin Love

By Brendan Loy

...per a bet I lost.

Harumph.

UCLA 56, USC 46, final. Bah.

Terrible game by the Trojans down the stretch. UCLA's shooting was cold enough that USC had every opportunity to win, but the Trojans couldn't hit a shot to save their lives for a long while there, and they -- particularly O.J. Mayo -- kept turning the ball over at crucial times.

Of course, in light of their injury problems, I suppose at some level it's impressive that the Trojans were able to hang in there with the #6 team in the country at all. The number of minutes their starters played was obscene; those guys were tired by the end. But still. There's no excuse for mistakes like the ones O.J. was making, no excuse for the laziness on the boards, no excuse for settling for low-percentage shots down the stretch. Bottom line, they could have won that game, and they let the opportunity slip away.

P.S. If you're wondering about the "per a bet I lost" language, I'm just mirroring what Mike said after the first game. :)

P.P.S. The abomination in the sidebar at right, and the new blog subtitle ("Mike Tran owns me"), will remain up until 12:01 AM tomorrow.

Dual tragedy at Notre Dame

By Brendan Loy

Two Notre Dame students died over the weekend in "separate and unrelated incidents" -- one of them at Dillon Hall, the other reportedly while "studying abroad in London." (Hat tip: Sergio.)

I have no idea whether the latter student was in the NDLS London program, or some other London program. All additional information is being withheld for now, including the students' names. Regardless, both deaths are obviously terrible tragedies, and my heart goes out to the families and friends of these students, whoever they may be.

UPDATE: The Observer reports:

One of the students, Connor McGrath, was a sophomore who moved to Siegfried Hall in January. He died Sunday morning or early afternoon, Siegfried rector Father John Conley told students gathered at the dorm's Mass Sunday night. ...

No name has been released in the second death, but a number of dorm rectors said the student was not an undergraduate.

The South Bend Tribune is quoting the St. Joseph County deputy coroner as saying that McGrath "may have had some health problems." There's no word at all on the what killed the London grad/law student.

If, as expected, the university releases more information later today, presumably it will be posted here.

UPDATE 2: The student who died in London has been identified as law student Timothy Aher. Details in a new post above.

NOTE: I've bumped this post's timestamp back to 11:17 PM, the original time it was posted. I had bumped it up to the top of the homepage because it was clearly the "top story" overnight and into the morning, but now that the new post supercedes it, I've restored its original timestamp.

Things that suck: UCLA, Duke, FSN

By Brendan Loy

Stupid freakin' blankety-blank Fox Sports Net South is showing the Nashville Predators game, even though the schedule on TVGuide.com says very clearly that we were supposed to get the Duke-Wake Forest game (which Duke lost!) followed by USC-UCLA (which is now underway). Harumph!!

I don't know if they'll take us out to the basketball game once the hockey game -- which is now in overtime -- ends. I hope so. But anyway, it's a tight game early between the Trojans and Bruins.

UPDATE: Yaaay! They're taking us out to the game in progress.

UPDATE 2: Thanks largely to poor ball-handling and rebounding, USC trails 35-29 with 16:55 left in the game.

UPDATE 3: USC is playing like crap. But so is UCLA, so the Trojans are still only down by 6 with under three minutes left.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

143 million pounds of beef is being recalled by a Calif. slaughterhouse being investigated for mistreating cattle.

Loyette says, "Beat the Bruins!"

By Brendan Loy

Fight on Trojans! Beat the Bruins!

(Onesie and blanket courtesy of Keri and Jake. "Fight on" socks courtesy of Papa & Nana.)

P.S. Of course, Mike Tran is hoping the Trojans lose tonight... which just proves that Mike Tran hates babies. :)

Freakin' baby-hating Bruins. Have they no decency? ;)

Shuttle-ISS sky show delayed to Monday

By Brendan Loy

According to Reuters, the scheduled undocking between the Space Shuttle Atlantis and the International Space Station is now set for 4:26 AM EST on Monday. That's almost 24 hours later than the 6:35 AM Sunday undocking time that's stated in master flight plan.

This means the aforeblogged Sunday-night sky show will be far less spectacular than I had hoped. The Shuttle and ISS will both be visible, of course, but they'll be indistinguishable from one another to the naked eye, appearing as a single dot rather than two points of light trailing each other across the sky. They won't look much different than a standard ISS-only flyover, which, while still pretty cool, is a commonplace occurrence.

Monday night is a different story, though. Alas, here in Knoxville, the view won't be nearly as good as it would have been Sunday if the schedule had stayed in place (though it's really a moot point anyway, since it didn't look like the weather was going to cooperate), but it'll be a spectacular view in New Orleans, Los Angeles, and a bunch of other places. Here are Monday night's flyover tracks, courtesy of Heavens Above:

Again, for local details, go to Heavens Above.

#1 Memphis trailing at half

By Brendan Loy

Conference USA's second-best team, the UAB Blazers, lead 43-41 at halftime against #1-ranked, undefeated Memphis. UAB is at home.

UPDATE: Memphis survives, 79-78, rallying from down 7 with 1:30 left to win on a basket in the closing seconds. I wasn't watching, but it sounds like a very exciting finish.

UPDATE 2: I wasn't kidding. From the AP:

Chris Douglas-Roberts converted a three-point play with 6.5 seconds left, giving No. 1 Memphis a 79-78 win over UAB Saturday night to keep the Tigers' hopes for regular-season perfection intact.

The Blazers' Robert Vaden then missed badly on an off-balance 3-point attempt and Lawrence Kinnard grabbed the long rebound. He heaved up a shot in the paint that went in, and officials promptly headed to the scorer's table to watch replays.

They ruled that Kinnard didn't get the shot off in time.

Several Memphis players had angry exchanges with UAB fans who stormed the court celebrating what they thought was a win.

More utterly dishonest Clinton spin

By Brendan Loy

Argh:

Clinton’s ace-in-the-hole delegate counter, Harold Ickes...[a]cknowledges [the] campaign perhaps should have done more in caucus states, but belittles Obama wins in places like Idaho — says they aren’t general election battlegrounds.

No, they aren't. And neither are California, Massachusetts or New Jersey -- Hillary's supposed "big wins" on Super Tuesday. Is Ickes seriously suggesting that Obama would lose those states in November? The same goes for New York, another of Hillary's large-state victories.

On the flip side, although Bill won Arkansas in the 1992 and 1996 general elections, I think it would be a stretch to believe that Hillary can. Just as CA, MA, NJ and NY are rock-solid blue, AR is rock-solid red. The same goes for Tennessee and Oklahoma, also much-ballyhooed "big wins" for Hillary. These states are all little more than glorified Idahos.

So, in sum, that's seven Clinton wins that came in states that aren't "general-election battlegrounds," and therefore are not "significant," according to Ickes/Penn logic.

Even if we ignore the fact that this whole argument is transparently bogus -- winning a primary in a given state does not mean you'll win the general election there, and likewise, losing a primary doesn't imply that you'll lose the general -- the Clintons' argument defeats itself, on its own terms. To wit:

Excluding, as any intellectually honest person must, the states where both candidates agreed, in advance, that the primary didn't count... Hillary has won exactly two true "swing states" (New Hampshire and New Mexico), plus two "red states" that you could potentially see a Democrat competing in (Nevada and Arizona). Obama has also won two true "swing states" (Iowa and Missouri) and two "red states" that you could see a Democrat competing in (Colorado and Virginia).

So, the candidates are doing equally well in this (meaningless) statistic... unless you tally up the electoral votes in their respective "general election battlegrounds," in which case Obama is way ahead, 40 to 24. Are you listening, Harold?

Likewise, if you look at their popular-vote margins in those states' primaries, Obama wins by a mile, 16.7% to 4.4%. Or, if you prefer raw totals, it's still Obama in a romp. We have to throw out Iowa and Nevada, since those states don't report actual vote totals, but Obama's combined margin of 322,745 votes in MO, CO and VA dwarfs Hillary's combined margin of 42,604 votes in NM, NH and AZ.

So... what is Harold Ickes's point, exactly?

A rivalry tradition renewed

By Brendan Loy

Pete Carroll and new UCLA football coach Rick Neuheisel have reportedly reached an agreement that will allow the Bruins and Trojans to renew the old tradition of both wearing their home jerseys when they play each other.

Sweet.

The Daily Bruin and Bruins Nation have more. (Hat tip: Doc and Chris Newbury.)

Who will Michigan's Uncommitted delegates be?

By Brendan Loy

If the Democratic presidential race goes all the way to the convention, and if Michigan's disputed delegation is ultimately seated, an absolutely crucial question will be the identities and loyalties of the state's 55 "Uncommitted" delegates.

Hillary, you may recall, won 73 delegates to Uncommitted's 55 in the January 15 Yooper Tuesday primary. "Uncommitted" was basically a proxy for Obama and Edwards, who weren't on the ballot. The substantial majority of "Uncommitted" voters, it's safe to say, were Obama supporters -- but that doesn't necessarily mean Uncommitted's delegates will be Obama loyalists.

Their loyalties are very important to determine, though. If all 55 of 'em are de facto Obama delegates, Hillary only gets an 18-vote boost from seating Michigan's delegation, which might not be enough to salvage her nomination chances. But suppose they're evenly split; suppose half of them are actually Clinton loyalists. Then Hillary's Michigan advantage becomes a huge, huge deal mathematically. (In that scenario, 73-55 would turn into something like 100-28.) So I decided to do a little research into the process by which these delegates will be selected.

Continue reading "Who will Michigan's Uncommitted delegates be?" »

Pelosi to supers: respect the voters

By Brendan Loy

House Speaker (and superdelegate extraordinaire) Nancy Pelosi says the superdelegates should follow the will of the voters, not override their verdict -- and also, that Michigan and Florida's delegations should not be seated.

P.S. Pelosi will chair the convention in Denver. I'm not sure how much actual power that gives her, but it certainly lends at least a bit -- and maybe a lot -- of additional significance to her statement.

Hackett out for UCLA, maybe for season

By Brendan Loy

The possibly season-ending injury to Daniel Hackett isn't just potentially devastating for the USC Trojans' hopes of making some serious noise this month and next. It's also potentially devastating to my hopes of forcing Mike Tran to wear a USC sweatshirt and do the victory sign in front of Tommy Trojan, and capture it all on camera for posterity -- as he'll be required to do, per the terms of our bet, if USC beats UCLA at the Galen Center on Sunday night.

Alas, Hackett will definitely be out for at least that game, and probably much more. (Hopefully O.J. Mayo will still be able to play, at least. Good grief.) Meanwhile, injured Bruins guard Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will probably be back.

If the Trojans win on Sunday (FSN, 10:00 PM EST), it would guarantee that I win the season-series bet, and Mike would have to get me the glorious above-described photo by March 1. If the Bruins win, there's no immediate winner of the season-series bet, though either Mike or I could still win it if the teams meet again in the Pac-10 tournament.

Sunday-night sky show

By Brendan Loy

If the current mission schedule for the Space Shuttle Atlantis remains unchanged, much of the continental U.S. will have an opportunity to watch the Shuttle and the International Space Station fly overhead Sunday night as two distinct, bright dots, moving briskly across the evening sky in tandem -- two unmistakable beacons of the human presence in space. Just over 12 hours removed from their Sunday-morning undocking, they should be a very cool sight to behold.

Trust me: even if you're not into dorky stuff like Iridium flares, this is well worth a trip outside at the proper time, if the sky is clear. (And you don't need to be in a low-light-pollution location to see them. They're very bright. So long as you're not standing, like, directly under a streetlight or something, you should be able to see them, even from downtown in a major city. Basically, if you can see Venus, you can see the ISS and Shuttle.)

There are two viewing opportunities for the U.S. on Sunday evening: the first between 6:57 and 7:04 PM EST -- visible from much of the eastern half of the country -- and the second from 8:27 to 8:35 PM EST (that's 6:27-6:35 MST) -- visible from most of the Mountain Time Zone, and parts of the Central and Western time zones as well.

To find out if and when the flyovers will be visible from your particular location, go to Heavens-Above and select your location. When you get to the "Main Menu," click on "10 day predictions for: ISS" and look for the "17 Feb" entry (or entries) on the list. Click on it (or them), and you'll get all your local details, including precisely when and where in the sky to look. (The Shuttle will either be just behind the ISS or just ahead of it; I'm not sure which.)

Basically, though, the closer you are to the black lines in these graphics, the better your potential view is, provided it's after local sunset when the flyover occurs:

Don't pay much attention to the red circles; they just show the extent of potential satellite visibility, down to 10 degrees above the horizon, from the central location on each map. The circles would look different from other spots and at other times along the satellite's path. So what you really want to focus on is the black line, and how close you are to it. The closer you are, the brighter and more directly overhead the satellites will be. (Again, the other issue is the timing of sunset; the Pacific coast won't get a good view because the sun will still be up.)

But really, don't bother trying to speculate based on those maps -- seriously, just go to Heavens-Above and get the details for your specific location. :)

Here in Knoxville, we're pretty darn close to the black line for the earlier flyover, and as a result, we get a really great view: the ISS will have a magnitude of -2.1 (lower magnitudes are brighter; -2.1 is brighter than anything in the night sky except Venus and the Moon) and will reach an altitude of 67 degrees at 6:59:54 PM EST. Oh, and it'll pass directly through Orion about 35 seconds later.

(Unfortunately, the weather forecast for Knoxville looks less than promising at the moment. I hope it changes!)

The view is even better from Nashville, which is almost literally right on the center line, so there the ISS will reach an max altitude of 85° -- and a stunning magnitude of -2.5 -- at 5:59:23 PM CST.

A few other potential locations of interest to Irish Trojan readers: Phoenix (magnitude -1.9, altitude 39° in the NE sky at 6:30:38 MST), Denver (magnitude -0.3, altitude 28° in the SW sky at 6:30:37 MST), South Bend (magnitude -0.6, altitude 33° in the SW sky at 6:58:28 EST), Memphis (magnitude -2.1, altitude 46° in the NE sky at 5:59:00 CST), Atlanta (magnitude -2.5, altitude 74°, almost directly overhead -- right near Mars -- at 7:00:14 EST), Indianapolis (magnitude -1.3, altitude 45° in the SW sky at 6:58:49 EST), St. Louis (magnitude -2.5, altitude 88°, directly overhead at 5:58:22 CST, which is 17 minutes after local sunset), Washington, D.C. (a comparatively dim magnitude 0.4, altitude 19 in the SW sky at 7:00:17 EST; Virginia suburbs will be marginally better).

Oh, and in Southern California, although both of the flyovers mentioned here will occur before local sunset, you may be able to catch a glimpse in the southwestern sky (max altitude 19°) of the next flyover, over the Pacific Ocean, at 7:05 PM PST. The magnitude will only be 0.3, though, a little dimmer than Mars, so light pollution could be a problem.

Anyway... all of this is subject to change, particularly the precise schedule details, if the ISS's orbit gets tweaked a bit between now and then. Also, the undocking schedule could change; if it's delayed, and thus the Shuttle is still docked on Sunday night, then it and the ISS will appear as a single bright dot moving across the sky, which, while still pretty cool, is a much more commonplace occurrence.

However, assuming the undocking schedule remains relatively unchanged, I highly encourage everybody in range of this flyover to check it out Sunday night.

Wisconsin as a mini-Ohio?

By Brendan Loy

Makes sense to me. Although, don't tell it to Badger fans.

UPDATE: Is Obama really winning Texas? [But cf., Derek's comment. He says ARG, the company whose poll shows Obama leading, sucks.]

P.S. Peggy Noonan sums up Hillary Clinton's week. It's been a doozy.

Meanwhile, Michael Gerson explains why Hillary is losing: "Clinton's largest problem is not a lack of money or public enthusiasm. It is the lack of a compelling narrative for her campaign."

Most successful presidential runs eventually have an overarching theory: the generational ambitions of John Kennedy's "New Frontier," the rising cultural resentments of Richard Nixon's "Silent Majority," the reviving national confidence of Ronald Reagan's "Morning in America."

Obama's appeal is straightforward: getting beyond "the ideological battles that have consumed us for the last 20 years" -- in which Clinton and her husband have been two of the main combatants.

Hillary Clinton's attempt to define a narrative of her own has been hobbled because her campaign is defined by the rejection of rhetoric. Obama's eloquence and idealism are dismissed as "abstract" and a "fairy tale" in contrast to Clinton's experience and policy substance. It is difficult for a campaign to inspire while using "inspiration" as an epithet.

Gerson also notes that the "experience and policy substance" argument is further hobbled because "Clinton has had little actual experience running anything, and that the "argument for experience comes at an odd time, when Americans are generally disillusioned with both Democrats and Republicans in Washington." But, he argues, the other possible Hillary narratives are also fatally flawed: Hillary the Fighter ("it is hard to imagine American voters thinking: 'If only the Clintons were a little more ruthless, I'd finally support them'"), Hillary the Comeback Kid ("when you lose a lot, you eventually look like a loser") and Hillary the Tested ("it is not enough to be vetted. The goal is to be vetted and found clean"). He concludes:

Though it is increasingly unlikely, Clinton may still have a path to the nomination -- and what a path it is. She merely has to puncture the balloon of Democratic idealism; sully the character of a good man; feed racial tensions within her party; then eke out a win with the support of unelected superdelegates, thwarting the hopes of millions of new voters who would see an inspiring young man defeated by backroom arm-twisting and arcane party rules.

Unlikely -- but it would be a fitting contribution to the Clinton legacy of monumental selfishness.

Indeed.

Supers and spin

By Brendan Loy

Josh Marshall:

The Clinton camp's super delegate gambit is not only audacious. Far more than that it is simply unrealistic. The super delegates who are gettable for Clinton by loyalty, conviction or coercion are already got. And enough's been seen of both candidates for everyone to be more than acquainted with them. The ones who remain -- who make up roughly half the total -- are waiting to see who the winner is.

The truth is that there are over 1000 elected delegates remain to be won. We really don't know what's going to happen yet. But if the trend continues and Obama ends the primary season with a clear majority of elected delegates, the idea that those remaining super delegates will break for the candidate who won fewer delegates, raised less money and is polling worse against the Republican nominee simply makes no sense.

He goes on to cite this as another example of Hillary's people, particularly chief strategist Mark Penn, putting out "spin" that's downright laughable. Good spin, Marshall says, involves "clever and forward-leaning pitches of actual realities, facts." What's been coming out of Team Hillary, by contrast, are "not sharp 'spins' on favorable realities, but aggressive pitches of complete nonsense."

More delegate math

By Brendan Loy

The New York Times has a fantastic delegate graphic today. Of particular interest to me are the stats for where the delegate count would be without proportional allocation: Obama 1,096-1,075 in a winner-take-all system by state, or Obama 1,138-1,033 in a WTA-by-district system. Fascinating.

UPDATE: It's a couple of days old, and it's long, but here's an interesting post about the delegate situation and the state of the race.

"Floodgates open" after super-defection?

By Brendan Loy

Very good news for Obama on two fronts tonight. First, it looks like he may be getting a huge union endorsement -- that of the national Service Employees International Union -- possibly at 1pm Friday.

Second, and even more importantly, a development that TPM's Eric Kleefeld says "may well be the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton's super-delegate strategy": a super-duper switcheroo! According to the New York Times:

Representative John Lewis, an elder statesman from the civil rights era and one of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s most prominent black supporters, said Thursday night that he planned to cast his vote as a superdelegate for Senator Barack Obama in hopes of preventing a fight at the Democratic convention.

[UPDATE, 12:52 AM: A late report suggests the Times may have jumped the gun; Lewis may not be switching after all. WTF? Is something fishy going on here?]

Mark Halperin calls Lewis's defection an "earthquake" and the "most serious symbolic threat to Clinton's nomination yet." He elaborates:

Lewis is a universally respected, historic figure who is the first prominent Democrat to go from squarely in Clinton’s camp to Obama’s. The rationale he gave to the New York Times strikes at the heart of the argument that has been circulating among many wavering, undecided superdelegates, and among those now in Clinton’s camp who are feeling pressure to switch. Floodgates could open. The timing could not be worse for Clinton. And those in the party and the press who want to write off her chances will be able to make a big deal about this development. Take whatever you thought Clinton’s chances of winning the nomination before Lewis’ decision and divide that number by as much as two — those are the odds of her winning now.

Michael Crowley says Halperin is exaggerating. "Obviously this is a nasty development for Hillary. ... It hurts. But an event that cuts her odds in half? That's how I would describe a big loss in Wisconsin. Not this."

Regarding Lewis's rationale, here's what the Times said:

Continue reading ""Floodgates open" after super-defection?" »

Birthday boy Loy clinches Super Tuesday contest

By Brendan Loy

Nine days after Super Tuesday, Democratic Party officials in New Mexico announced today that Hillary Clinton won their state's primary -- which means that Joe Loy, who turned 60 today, is the overall winner of the Irish Trojan Super Tuesday Contest.

With only the Democrats Abroad result still outstanding, Loy is 38-of-44 in predicting the Democratic and Republican elections that were held on February 5. No one else is better than 36-of-44, so even if Loy gets Democrats Abroad wrong (he picked Obama), he'll still win the overall contest.

Continue reading "Birthday boy Loy clinches Super Tuesday contest" »

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Authorities confirm four people killed by a gunman on the campus of Northern Illinois University. Gunman also dead.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

A shooting at Northern Illinois University has left at least two people wounded, reports say. Gunman reportedly is dead.

U.S. aims to shoot down errant satellite

By Brendan Loy

Remember the spy satellite that's falling out of orbit and is expected to hit Earth soon? Well, President Bush wants to shoot it out of the sky:

The Pentagon, under orders from President Bush, is planning to shoot down a broken spy satellite expected to hit the Earth in early March, the White House said Thursday.

U.S. officials said that the option preferred by the administration will be to fire a missile from a U.S. Navy cruiser, and shoot down the satellite before it enters Earth's atmosphere. ...

The disabled satellite is expected to hit the Earth the first week of March. Officials said the Navy would likely shoot it down before then, using a special missile modified for the task.

It's interesting that they want to shoot it down before re-entry -- which will create inevitable controversy, given that we condemned the Chinese for doing something similar last year -- when, according to satellite expert James Lewis, another option would be to try and use the Missile Defense System to destroy the satellite just as it begins to re-enter the atmosphere. That would be far less controversial (and would eliminate the "space junk" problem), but I'm guessing the odds of success are lower. In other words, reading the tea leaves, it certainly doesn't sound like the government has much faith in the Missile Defense System, at least as regards its ability to pull off a mission like this one.

Anyway...

Continue reading "U.S. aims to shoot down errant satellite" »

Populism pander alert!

By Brendan Loy

Next she'll be saying she's the daughter of a millworker:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) trashed an array of corporate interests in an economic speech in Ohio Thursday, vowing that as president she would go after oil, credit-card, insurance, pharmaceutical, investment and loan firms.

But is this fight "deeply personal" to her?

Sweeeet.

By Brendan Loy

The first Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull trailer is out. (Hat tip: Andrew Hiller.)

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Mitt Romney will endorse John McCain as the GOP nominee for president, CNN has learned.

Centrists gone wild

By Brendan Loy

First Joe Lieberman endorsed McCain. Now Lincoln Chafee has endorsed Obama. What's next? Chuck Hagel for Hillary? John Breaux for Huckabee?

Meanwhile, is this the start of a Clinton-to-Obama superdelegate switcheroo trend?

UPDATE: Speaking of switcheroos, an unexpectedly rapid answer to my question, "What's next?," has arrived via Wonkette: one of John McCain's top advisers will quit McCain's campaign if Obama is the Democratic nominee because, well, golly, he just likes Obama too darn much to campaign against him! (Hat tip: dcl.)

Happy (?) Valentine's Day

By Brendan Loy

In addition to being my dad's 60th birthday, today is also, of course, Valentine's Day -- "quite clearly the most horrible holiday in the history of the world," according to my brother-in-law. (Not that any day in February, holiday or not, can be expected to be terribly pleasant when you live in Rochester.)

Needless to say, Casey isn't the only man who's less than enthusiastic about Valentine's Day. Nor is hatred of February 14 unique to the male half of the species; plenty of people, of both genders, have had Valentine's Days from Hell.

But hey, a West Virginia radio station is going to make sure that at least one couple in the Mountaineer State will get a nice Valentine's gift: a free divorce. (Just don't tell West Virginia winner Mike Huckabee -- who is celebrating the third anniversary of his "covenant marriage" today.)

Anyway, to the beleaguered men who don't want anything to do with this holiday, just remember: Steak and BJ Day (NSFW??) is only one month away.

P.S. Somebody alert Bill O'Reilly! There's a War on Valentine's Day brewing! (Hat tip: InstaPundit.)

P.P.S. On a marginally related note, the U.S. Supreme Court may soon weigh in on the constitutionality of dildo bans. Link goes to Volokh's post, titled "Dildoes Going to the Supreme Court?," in response to which a commenter writes: "Cert also to be granted on this question:  shouldn't the plural be 'dildi', or is that just pretentious?" (Again, hat tip: Insty.)

Continue reading "Happy (?) Valentine's Day" »

Obama vs. McCain = Paula vs. Simon

By Brendan Loy

An amusing analogy, courtesy of an NRO reader: "I was watching American Idol last night, and as usual Paula Abdul was just going on and on about feelings and emotion, and crotchety Simon Cowell was rolling his eyes and telling her to get to the point. It occurred to me that this could be a preview of the election this year if it's Obama and McCain. Paula versus Simon. Who do we want as President?" Heh.

On a more serious note, Quinnipiac Polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania, taken during the week between Super Tuesday and the Potomac Primary, show Hillary up big -- like 15 to 20 points big. If she can hold onto those margins, then this is still a race.

Continue reading "Obama vs. McCain = Paula vs. Simon" »

Sampson lied, Hoosier dreams died?

By Brendan Loy

Trouble in Hoosierland:

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- Kelvin Sampson's future at Indiana was in doubt Wednesday following the release of an NCAA report that says he committed five "major" violations.

According to the report released Wednesday, the NCAA listed five major violations against Sampson, saying he gave "false or misleading information" to investigators.

Fire Kelvin Sampson? Hey, I hear Bobby Knight's available!

The big 6-0

By Brendan Loy

Sixty years ago today, Harry S. Truman was President of the United States; Joseph Stalin was the Premier of the Soviet Union; Israel wasn't a country yet; gas cost $0.26 a gallon, and crude oil was $2.50 a barrel; a first-class stamp cost 3 cents; the minimum wage was 40 cents per hour; John McCain was 11 years old; the singer Kenny Loggins was five weeks old; the New York Yankees were reigning World Champions after beating rookie Jackie Robinson and the Brooklyn Dodgers the previous fall; Army's football team had recently seen their 32-game unbeaten streak snapped; the defending NCAA basketball champ was Holy Cross; there were only 21 amendments to the U.S. Constitution; the fastest any human being had ever run a mile was 4 minutes and 1.4 seconds; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 167; and, oh yes, my dad was born.

That's right -- it's the illustrious Joe Loy's 60th birthday!!

I encourage everyone to leave comments making fun of him for being old. :) Er, and wishing him a happy birthday, too, of course. Hehe.

Happy Birthday, Dad/Papa!!

P.S. Obviously, my dad was a Valentine's baby. What's funny is that Valentine's Day fell on a Saturday in 1948, so if he'd been born a few hours earlier, he would have been a Friday the 13th baby instead!

Also, a fun fact that I learned while researching the history of 1948 for purposes of this post: ten days before my dad was born, an election was held in Ireland, and Fianna Fáil was voted out. As a result, four days after my dad's birth, Éamon de Valera, the first Taoiseach of Ireland, ceded power to John Costello. I'm sure infant Joe had an Irish song prepared for the occasion. :)

There is no truth, However, to the Rumor that his Birth Certificate contained several Instances of Random Capitalization for No apparent Reason. ;)

Hillary Clinton is HOT! HOT! HOT!

By Brendan Loy

Was this Hillary video made by the same people who did the "Appalachian is HOT! HOT! HOT!" video?

Seriously, the similarities are striking. And I'm not just talking about the fact that Hillary and Appy State both won in Michigan. (Though in fairness to the Mountaineers, their win actually counted.*)

Anyway... just listen to the killer lyrics. "Experience is great / Instead of war, we can negotiate / Education, health and world affairs / Hillary is the one who cares" ... ROFL!!

How did this thing not win a Grammy? ;)

(Hat tip: Jason Zengerle.)

*Insert your own joke about Les Miles and "Uncommitted" here.

Rendell's at it again

By Brendan Loy

You may have heard that Ed Rendell made some controversial remarks about Barack Obama and some voters' readiness, or lack thereof, for a black president. I just thought it would be worth noting that this sort of thing isn't a first for Rendell. He has a history of not having very much faith in the American people when it comes to their potential reactions to barrier-breaking candidates. I vividly remember the controversy -- and the wonderful New York Post headline, "DEM BIG STIRS VEEP FLAP" -- that he caused when he commented in 2000, during Al Gore's vice-presidential selection process, that: "I don't think anyone can calculate the effect of having a Jew on the ticket. If Joe Lieberman was Episcopalian, I think he'd almost be a slam dunk." Two days later, Gore picked Lieberman, and the rest is history. Say what you will about Senator Joe, but I don't think I've ever heard anyone contend that his Jewishness cost Gore the presidency.

P.S. These days, the far more controversial portion of Rendell's 2000 comments, among his fellow Democrats at least, would be his statement that Lieberman is "maybe the finest person in politics." Heh. You don't hear too many Dems saying that anymore...

Obama leads national popular vote

By Brendan Loy

Assuming for the sake of argument that the "national popular vote" means something in the context of a state-by-state, district-by-district fight for the nomination -- and I'm not at all sure it does, but the Hillary folks will certainly argue that it does if such an argument suits their spin -- it's interesting to note that, even if you count Florida and Michigan, and even if you ignore the caucus states that don't report popular-vote totals, Obama is winning the popular vote.

Of course, it's totally absurd to count Michigan, since Obama wasn't even on the ballot there, and both campaigns agreed in advance that it didn't count and they wouldn't compete there. Same goes for Florida, except for the ballot thing, so counting the Sunshine State is pretty suspect, too. Furthermore, the only fair way to accurately reflect the national popular-vote totals is to try and somehow estimate the votes in those caucus states, as ObamaIsWinning.com is doing; otherwise you are just completely ignoring Iowa, Nevada, Washington and Maine, all of which were (unlike FL and MI) actually contested by both candidates.

So really, Obama's legitimate lead is actually much bigger than the 9,942,375 to 9,860,138 that you get if you count FL & MI and ignore IA, NV, WA and ME. Still, he's ahead no matter how you slice it, and that counts for something. I think. Sort of.

Even a broken clock...

By Brendan Loy

Ladies and gentlemen, I believe we have official confirmation that the Wisconsin-as-Hillary's-mini-firewall meme, first predicted by yours truly in my Monday post "Wednesday's CW today," has become, well, Wednesday's CW.

I wrote on Monday that, as the "growing media consensus that Hillary's in trouble and March 4 might not be able to save her" collides with the reality of an Obama Beltway sweep, the result would be that Wisconsin would become "a pre-March 4 'firewall' for Hillary." I added, "Maybe [the MSM and her superdelegates] won't demand that she win Wisconsin, but if she loses badly (again)," she'll be in trouble.

Well, here what the AP's Scott Bauer has to say, under the headline "Clinton Scrambles to Contest Wisconsin":

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is moving belatedly to make a contest of next Tuesday's [Wisconsin] Democratic presidential primary. ...

Clinton hasn't conceded the 74 delegates at stake even though she has already begun campaigning for the larger delegate prizes offered in Texas and Ohio on March 4. Her advisers say the New York senator may not win Wisconsin but can't afford another of the lopsided defeats she suffered in three mid-Atlantic primaries Tuesday. ...

Scrambling to prevent an Obama runaway, Clinton plans to spend three days in the state. On Tuesday, she squeezed in three satellite TV interviews with Milwaukee, Madison and Green Bay stations amid seven interviews with Texas and Ohio stations. Former President Clinton arrives on Thursday.

A new Clinton TV ad begun Wednesday asks why Obama hasn't joined her in accepting an invitation to debate at Marquette University...

So there you have it. The Irish Trojan: your source for occasionally-correct election predictions and media-CW prophesies! ;)

In less obnoxiously self-referential election news, Politico's Ben Smith says Obama is winning the spin war over whether the superdelegates should be lumped in with the pledged delegates as an undifferentiated mass in the media's delegate counts. (Answer: no.) But Hillary's camp isn't conceding the point, not by a long shot. Says communications director Howard Wolfson:

We are not making distinctions between certain kinds of delegates. We don’t make distinctions between delegates that are chosen by millions of voters in a primary or tens of thousands of voters in a caucus. We don’t make a distinction between elected officials.

Heh. I love the blatant dishonesty of the statement, "We don't make distinctions between [primaries and caucuses]." I wish someone had replied, "Of course you do, Howard! You've done it consistently throughout the last several weeks, and in fact, you're doing it right now, under the guise of denying it!" It takes a truly artful liar to lie about the very words he is saying, even as he says them. These Billary people really make dishonesty an artform.

Alas, they aren't going to quit with this delegate-count-obfuscation business, and even if Smith is right that Obama is gaining ground in the delegate-count spin war, the "total count" is still going to keep carrying a fair amount of weight -- as Team Billary obviously recognizes when it sets a "target" of being within 25 total delegates (pledged and unpledged) of Obama after March 4.

Of course, they're setting that goal because it should be a pretty easy one to exceed -- unless Obama can even out the superdelegate numbers in the mean time, which, as I mentioned in my P.S. earlier, would really help with the perceptions game in the event of an inconclusive situation when March 5 dawns. And this Clintonian spin tactic is precisely why.

UPDATE: More on Wisconsin:

The Clinton campaign has coaxed Teresa Vilmain (left), who earned high marks for running her Iowa operation, down from the wilds outside of Madison to run her suddenly-rejuvenated Wisconsin operation, we're told.

Early on, it looked like Hillary Clinton might effectively concede Wisconsin's Feb. 19 contest to Barack Obama. But her schedule released late last night shows an apparent change of heart...

(Hat tip: Politico.)

P.R. governor backs Obama

By Brendan Loy

Last week, in a much-discussed article about the final stop on the Democratic election calendar -- the Puerto Rico caucuses, on June 7 -- Michael Barone argued that the island's 63 delegates (actually 55, plus 8 supers) will probably be distributed in an effectively winner-take-all manner, and thus could prove incredibly important if Clinton and Obama are still locked in a close delegate battle at that point. Barone argues that, although proportional allocation of pledged delegates is a universal requirement under national Democratic Party rules, such a concept is "alien to highly competitive Puerto Rican politics," and therefore, in past years, "the dominant figure in Puerto Rico identifying with the Democratic Party has seen to it that his faction gets all the territory’s delegates."

I don't know anything about Puerto Rican politics, but as I stated yesterday in comments, I think Barone will probably be proven wrong about this. Precedent from prior years is relatively meaningless in the current context, as there hasn't been a down-to-the-wire delegate battle in many years, so there hasn't been a reason for anyone to challenge any Puerto Rican party shenanigans that may have occurred. Whatever the island's Democratic power-brokers might try to pull off, I can't imagine the national party allowing its presidential nomination to be decided -- over the loud, vociferous, and absolutely correct objections of the loser -- on the basis of blatant territorial rule-breaking. So I have to believe that any effort to manufactuer a 55-0 win for either candidate will be nipped in the bud. (The actual, official rules of Puerto Rican delegate selection can be found at The Green Papers. Needless to say, they are not winner-take-all.)

That said, whether Barone is right or wrong, even a proportional battle over 55 delegates at the very end of the calendar certainly could be important -- and, as such, today's Obama endorsement by Puerto Rico's governor strikes me as pretty significant.

And if, by chance, Barone is right, then it's really significant.

Too good to be true

By Brendan Loy

Is it really possible that Bill Clinton actually said to Bill Richardson -- in reference to Richardson's refusal to endorse Hillary -- “Isn’t two Cabinet posts enough?”

Color me skeptical. I'd love to know what the sourcing is on the report where the quote first appeared. Like the allegation that Paul Wolfowitz said the Iraq War was "all about oil" (subsequently corrected and deleted), this is one of those quotes that's so deliciously wonderful, so perfect, so neatly encapsulating what everybody in the Beltway secretly (or not-so-secretly) thinks about Bill Clinton -- that he's a presumptuous, insufferable egomaniac who considers himself God's gift to the Democratic Party and believes that everybody in the known universe "owes" him -- I just can't believe it's actually true.

Obama on the verge

By Brendan Loy

If you want to know where the Democratic race stands right now, do not pass go, do not collect $200, just head straight over to TPM Café and read FlyOnTheWall's latest post. I was going to quote excerpts from it, but then I realized I'd end up blockquoting the whole thing. Just go read it already. :)

(Also read his follow-up comment. Money quote: "I expect the superdelegates to coalesce [around Obama] remarkably quickly after March 4" -- even if Hillary wins reasonably big in Texas and Ohio.)

Oh, and if you're still worried about Hillary's potential superdelegate shenanigans, you might want to read this, too. It'll get you all fired up, if you're an Obama supporter -- or a supporter of small-d democracy in general, or for that matter, truth, justice, the American way, etc. :) But Fly's math and logic are persuasive: it appears unlikely that Hilldog can even get the pledged-delegate count close enough to make such shenanigans plausible.

IMHO, the only way Hillary wins this nomination now is if, under the increased media and public scrutiny that comes with being the clear-cut frontrunner, Obama seriously stumbles in the next three weeks. He and his campaign have been so disciplined and on-message to date, it seems unlikely he'll commit an unforced error (knock on wood), so really, it's all about the debates. She's got two chances to trip him up. All he has to do is not fall flat on his face, and he'll be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. Which is pretty damn remarkable.

P.S. Fly predicts that Obama will be rolling out a bunch of superdelegate endorsements over the next three weeks. I hope that's true. Given the media's unholy obsession with the grossly misleading "total delegate count" -- lumping the pledges and the supers together into an undifferentiated mass -- it would help Obama immensely in the perceptions game if he can pull as close to even in the superdelegate count as possible before March 4. That way, even if Hillary wins big in Texas and Ohio (which, frankly, I doubt will happen; I think Giuliani syndrome is going to take hold between now and then, again barring an Obama gaffe), Obama will still be able to maintain a sizable, obvious lead in both delegate counts: the one that actually ought to matter (pledged delegates) and the one that the media is obsessed with (total delegates). The less ambiguity about who's "ahead," the better Obama's chances to wrap this thing up.

Hillary Clinton's bleak delegate math

By Brendan Loy

Does Obama already have a pledged-delegate majority effectively wrapped up? MSNBC's Howard Fineman says both campaigns think so, as Josh Marshall explains:

[T]he gist of [Fineman's analysis] was that both sides agree that it's highly unlikely that Clinton can end up with more pledged delegates than Barack Obama. And the issue now is how close she can keep the margin.

If she can keep it within a couple dozen delegates, he argued, it would be credible to try to make up the margin with super delegates. On the other hand, if Obama's ahead by 100 or 200, the pressure against trying to make up the margin with non-elected delegates would just be too great.

Sounds about right. Here's the clip:

The speeches

By Brendan Loy

I thought Obama's victory speech tonight was one of his better recent efforts. It was less repetitive of earlier speeches, pithier and faster-paced, and less self-referential than his discomfiting, almost messianic "we are the change we seek" speech on Super Tuesday.

As for the other candidates' remarks: I only caught a brief snippet of McCain's speech before duty called (Loyette needed a diaper change), but it seemed like a pretty hard-hitting frontal assault on Democratic/liberal policies. And Clinton's speech was... um, I think the word would be grating. I kept thinking, "this speech would sound good if Obama were giving it." :)

Video clips here.

P.S. TNR's Jonathan Cohn calls it Obama's "best speech yet":

Compared to his early speeches, he's far more deft at weaving policy into his promises of movement-building. ... [W]here he used to talk about change for change's sake, now he talks about specific changes -- and how he intends to build a popular mandate for those changes. ...

Towards the end of the speech, he returned to his theme of "yes we can" -- but in a way different than I had heard before. (Again, maybe he's been doing this lately and I just missed it.) He tied that theme to all the great movements in American history -- the revolutionaries who fought the British for independence, the abolitionists who crusaded against slavery, the Greatest Generation who served in World War II, the Civil Rights movement, and so on. Not only did this cloak his ideas in the mantle of patriotism, which is always a good thing, but linked them -- once again -- to tangible, pivotal changes in American life, which is precisely what his campaign needs to be promising.

It was a good speech.

On Wisconsin?

By Brendan Loy

CNN's John King gets the Wisconsin-as-Hillary's-mini-firewall meme going:

   

Key quote: "The Clinton campaign has to build a firewall. They say Ohio and Texas. Well, what about Wisconsin? That's a week from today. ... If [Obama] can win Wisconsin next week, there are a lot of Democrats who think the trap door may open under Senator Clinton eventually."

Look for this to become conventional wisdom within the next 24-48 hours.

UPDATE: Or not. It seems Hillary isn't even travelling to Wisconsin until Saturday.

I guess the test of my theory will be whether she's forced to change her schedule by an escalating sense that she must win, or at least do well in, Wisconsin. But the very fact of her schedule may prevent that CW from coalescing in the first place.

UPDATE 2: The Washington Post's Anne Kornblut looks at the same schedule and draws a different conclusion, citing the fact that Hillary is going to Wisconsin at all -- albeit not until Saturday --  as proof that she's "making a play for Wisconsin in hopes of scoring at least one more victory this month."

UPDATE 3: Halperin's headline: "The Fight for the Badger State." He writes, "Despite campaign intentions to focus on Texas, Ohio, Clinton now plans to stay in Wisconsin Saturday through Tuesday’s primary."

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects that Barack Obama will win the Maryland Democratic primary; John McCain the GOP winner.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects that John McCain will win the Virginia GOP primary.

No Huck-a-shock

By Brendan Loy

"CNN can now project that John McCain will -- will -- win the state of Virginia." --Wolf Blitzer

It'll be closer than expected, but that doesn't matter. Virginia is winner-take-all. McCain gets all 63 delegates. As far as I'm concerned, this effectively ends any realistic chance of Huck stopping him from reaching the magic number to clinch the nomination.

Any such "chance" was a major stretch anyway, of course. But now McCain will be around 810 delegates by the end of the night by the Green Papers' count -- assuming he wins D.C. and Maryland -- which will put him within ~380 of the magic number (1,191), with more than 1,100 delegates still to be allocated. He now only needs to win barely a third of the remaining delegates. He can do that in his sleep.

Delegate math

By Brendan Loy

Virginia has eleven congressional districts; Maryland has eight. There are six 4-delegate districts (VA-1, VA-2, VA-5, VA-6, VA-9, MD-6), five 5-delegate districts (VA-4, VA-7, VA-10, MD-1, MD-2), five 6-delegate districts (VA-3, VA-11, MD-3, MD-5, MD-7), and three 7-delegate districts (VA-8, MD-4, MD-8).

Virginia results by district are here. After the jump, I look at the delegate math for each type of district.

Continue reading "Delegate math" »

Maryland polls extended till 9:30 PM

By Brendan Loy

Due to bad weather.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

CNN projects that Barack Obama will win the Virginia Democratic primary; McCain, Huckabee in competitive race.

CNN calls VA for Obama, not McCain

By Brendan Loy

WOOO!!! Huck-a-shock?!?

Based on the exit polls, they can immediately call it for Obama at 7:00 PM, but the GOP race is "competitive."

Thoughts on the Dem race

By Brendan Loy

TPM Cafe contributor FlyOnTheWall, whose blogging is consistently excellent, has some very insightful, forward-looking thoughts on the Democratic race. Three of the best:

4) It may be this week; it may be next; it may not be until March. But sooner or later, the Clinton campaign is going to have to face the reality that the Michigan and Florida delegations aren't going to be seated, and that they can't win the convention without them. When it does, we'll see a dramatic shift in strategy. The Clintons will join the DNC in pressing for caucuses (the formal name for any party-run election, no matter its mechanics). And when they do, Obama's not going to be able to stop them. If Obama can't pull off an upset in OH, TX or PA, it's likely that the campaign will come down to these final two contests. And ironic - the political advantage state leaders failed to achieve by moving their contests forward may well be theirs if they agree to reschedule them all the way at the end of the calendar. ...

6) Will becoming the frontrunner help or hurt Obama? The Potomac Primaries offer an interesting test case. If he can prevail better than 60-40, it's probably a sign that Hillary's base is starting to get discouraged and stay home. But if his margin is smaller than the (incredibly flawed) polls presently predict, we may see Hillary trying to sell the comeback narrative again. Taking the overall lead among delegates is a similarly fraught achievement - its major benefits accrue only if Obama can retain that lead. Otherwise, the media may embrace a narrative of shifting momentum. ...

8) After Wisconsin, we hit a long, empty stretch. For the first time, Obama will feel the heat of national media scrutiny that he imagines he's already endured. How well will he hold up? Can he maintain his momentum?

I've been pondering points #6 and #8 (which are closely related), and had been planning to blog about them myself, but FlyOnTheWall expresses them better than I would have. And I hadn't even thought of point #4, but it's brilliant.

By the way, in addition to recommending FlyOnTheWall, I also recommend the blog 2008 Democratic Convention Watch for all your delegate-counting needs. Both sites will be added to my blogroll shortly.

Democrats Abroad caucuses end tonight

By Brendan Loy

In addition to the Beltway primaries, the Democrats Abroad caucuses are scheduled to end today. I have no idea when the tally will be announced, but assuming it's known before Friday -- which is the deadline for the still-ongoing New Mexico count -- the Dems Abroad result will clinch one of the two still-undetermined Irish Trojan Super Tuesday Prediction Contests, while leaving the other hinging on New Mexico's tally. Details after the jump.

Continue reading "Democrats Abroad caucuses end tonight" »

It's hard to believe...

By Brendan Loy



...that the South Carolina primary was only 2 1/2 weeks ago, isn't it? (The photo, BTW, is of the 2004 election poster in my office. Oh, sweet politics, how do I love thee...)

Majoring in miracles

By Brendan Loy

If this isn't a sign of an impending Huck-a-shock (or Huck-a-miracle, if you will), I don't know what is.

Fool me once...

By Brendan Loy

Will Virginia be New Hampshire Redux?

It does feel a bit that way. Now, as then, everyone is assuming that the only question is what Obama's margin will be. Now, as then, there is talk of an "epic blowout."

Will the sense of inevitability surrounding his chances of victory -- and the assumption that "high turnout" equals "big Obama win" -- actually be justified this time?

We shall see. I'll believe it when I see it, this time. And I don't care if the leaked exit polls show Obama up 95% to 5%. I want real numbers, dammit. Or at least a media "call." :)

P.S. In other news, Ron Paul is facing reality.

P.P.S. Back on the Democratic side, a Texas blogger offers what TNR's Michael Crowley calls an "incredibly thorough, district-by-district, demographic-based analysis" of the March 4 Texas primary, which concludes that "even a 5-point Hillary win in the statewide vote could leave Obama with a slight delegate advantage (thanks in part to Texas's screwy primary-caucus hybrid system)."

Meanwhile, more evidence of the Cult of Obama: fainting in the aisles.

P.P.P.S. Here's a good roundup of developments and musings on the Democratic race.

And here's a good observation from Politico's Ben Smith: "It's still a long month, and things can change. Having succumbed to conventional wisdom and more or less written Clinton off already after Iowa, I think I'll hold the obit this time."

Smith also links to a pro-Obama site which "mak[es] a case that seems to be gaining acceptance: That the more important count is the count of pledged delegates," and that therefore, superdelegates shouldn't be included in the overall delegate totals. This is absolutely true, as I mentioned yesterday, and I'm not just saying that because I support Obama over Clinton. It's all well and good to keep track of the currently "committed" superdelegates, but the principal "scoreboard" ought to be the pledged-delegate-only count, because they're the only ones whose votes are actually, truly "committed" to anyone (for the first two ballots anyway). The common practice of combining supers and non-supers into an undifferentiated numerical mass serves only to confuse the issue.

Oh, and about those superdelegates, Smith notes that there are actually now 794 of 'em, not 796. (Apropos of which, R.I.P., Super-Superdelegate Lantos.)

Anecdotal turnout report: Virginia

By Brendan Loy

In comments, Old Dominion readers report high, pro-Obama turnout at their Northern Virginia polling places this morning -- and intrepid Irish Trojan correspondent dcl notes that Obama is also doing well among the important cute-blonde-girls-at-bars demographic. I say this trend demands further research. Any volunteers? ;)

Enter my Oscar pool! (take 2)

By Brendan Loy

Yesterday's technical difficulties have (apparently) been resolved, so you should now be able to enter my Oscar Pool without incident.

(Thus far, I've received picks from David K. and Victoria W. If there anyone else entered the pool yesterday, I suspect I may yet receive your picks; it often takes mail servers a while to distribute backlogged messages after a meltdown. But you might want to e-mail me or leave a comment letting me know that you entered, so I can be on the lookout for your picks.)

Can Huckabee do it?

By Brendan Loy

Josh Marshall looks at the possibility of a Huckabee upset tonight in Virginia. He concludes that "there's at least a chance." But Marshall fails to mention the most crucial element of the Huck-a-shock formula: the crossover vote. As I've noted before, Virginia's primaries and completely open to both parties, and with the Democratic race dominating the headlines, I suspect that a lot of McCain's natural supporters in the Beltway area will follow the lead of Doug Mataconis and Joe Mama, and vote in the Democratic primary (most of them, like Mataconis and Mama, for Obama). I further suspect that most of Mike Huckabee's natural supporters will not do this. :) The crossover effect is Huckabee's golden ticket -- it is, quite simply, the reason he might have a chance to pull the upset tonight.

Marshall also fails to mention the critical reason why Virginia is so important: it's winner-take-all, and it's worth 63 delegates. If McCain wins it, it'll give him more than one-eighth of the 490 additional delegates that he needs to clinch the nomination. On the other hand, if Huckabee wins it, he'll increase his current delegate total by a whopping 29%, and the possibility that he could stop McCain from getting an outright majority will start to look merely implausible instead of out-and-out impossible.

One thing Marshall does mention, which I hadn't realized, is that Survey USA polling shows Huck gaining a remarkable 19 points on McCain over the weekend, from a 57-27 deficit on Friday to just a 48-37 deficit yesterday. This suggests that Huck's strong performance in Saturday's contests is actually giving him something of a "bounce," perhaps simply because it established in the minds of some not-too-sold-on-McCain folks that he's a more plausible alternative than they thought.

Anyway, it'll be very interesting to see what happens tonight. McCain will presumably win all of D.C.'s 16 delegates and most, if not all, of Maryland's 34 (the only question being whether Huckabee can win any of the state's eight congressional districts -- the first and sixth CDs, maybe? -- and thus pick up a few delegates in multiples of 3). But all of that will be totally overshadowed if Huck can take Virginia.

P.S. On the other hand, Huckabee won West Virginia, and what are the odds of Virginia and West Virginia actually agreeing on something? :)

Wednesday's CW today

By Brendan Loy

If, as expected, Obama sweeps the Beltway states tomorrow -- particularly if he does it convincingly, with landslide numbers -- I suspect the growing media consensus that Hillary's in trouble and March 4 might not be able to save her, which has been percolating for a couple of days and will be solidified by tomorrow's NYT article, could lead the MSM, and perhaps (more importantly) some superdelegates, to essentially designate next Tuesday's Wisconsin primary as a pre-March 4 "firewall" for Hillary.

Maybe they won't demand that she win Wisconsin, but if she loses badly (again), it'll leave a very bad taste in her supporters' mouths heading into the two weeks off before Texas and Ohio, and I could see some superdelegates jumping ship early (super-jumpers?) rather than waiting till the 4th.

P.S. Of course, having said all that, the history of this campaign says that Hillary will win Virginia tonight. Anytime you start writing her political obituary, she comes back out of nowhere.

Superdelegate redux

By Brendan Loy

Blogger Dylan Loewe, in a post titled "Why Obama is Closer to the Nomination Than You Think," argues convincingly that, in the end, neither rogue superdelegates nor the Florida/Michigan controversy will decide who wins the Democratic nomination; the winner will be whoever gets the most pledged delegates, even though the pledged delegates alone won't get the winner anywhere close to a majority. The superdelegates, Loewe says, are too wimpy to buck the will of the pledged delegates -- and the will of the pledged delegates will similarly control who gets on the Credentials Committee, and thus whether the Florida and Michigan delegations get seated. (Hat tip: Noam Scheiber.)

I think Loewe is probably right, provided the leading candidate's pledged delegate advantage is meaningful -- say, over 100 delegates or so. If that's the case, the superdelegates will rally around the leader for the sake of party self-preservation. But if the leader's delegate edge is in double digits only, I think all bets are off, in part because a lot of these superdelegates will be making their decisions while the national delegate estimates are still maddeningly in flux (so the identity of the "leader" may be less than clear) and in part because Hillary will then be able to wield the "popular vote" argument as a potentially effective counter to Obama's "I got more delegates" argument. If the final pledged delegate count is, say, 1,640 to 1,587, then it really will be chaos. But if it's more like 1,700 to 1,527, then, yes, the nominee will be the pledged delegate winner, notwithstanding that 1,700 is well short of the 2,025 needed to nominate.

P.S. With regard to those "maddeningly in flux" delegate counts: the media seriously, seriously needs to start consistently and clearly separating superdelegates from pledged delegates in its counts. To view the numbers primarily as an undifferentiated mish-mash is so confusing as to be almost worse than worthless. A "committed" superdelegate is not the same thing as a pledged delegate, for the simple reason that the superdelegate can change his or her mind, as some already have and many ultimately will. I'm not saying the superdelegate tally isn't important, but it is separate from the pledged-delegate tally, and it needs to be regarded as such.

If I were a major media organization with a "decision desk" and a staff of analysts figuring out delegate counts, I would publish a breakdown of delegates that would explicitly include, in separate columns, the following clearly delineated categories:

Continue reading "Superdelegate redux" »

Still looking for my hat tip

By Brendan Loy

BrendanLoy.com, February 6:

Hillary needs to be very careful of this, methinks. If Obama starts racking up wins in the friendly landscape of the next few weeks, his momentum could become a very powerful thing indeed, not with voters but with superdelegates. If Obama does very well throughout the rest of March, the supers might be ready to jump on the bandwagon en masse, and effectively anoint Obama the winner, if Hillary doesn't really impress in her March 4 "firewall" states, Texas and Ohio.

New York Times, February 12:

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers increasingly believe that, after a series of losses, she has been boxed into a must-win position in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and she has begun reassuring anxious donors and superdelegates that the nomination is not slipping away from her, aides said Monday. ...

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one Democratic superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

After being repeatedly and consistently wrong about almost everything this election season, I finally got something right, and got out a few days ahead of the conventional wisdom in the process, with this superdelegate thing. Woohoo! :)

UT timekeeper robs Rutgers of victory

By Brendan Loy

You'll be hearing about it in the articles, seeing it on SportsCenter, etc., but ... wow.

I'm sorry, but there's nothing legitimate about that Tennessee win. I don't understand why the announcers are being so equivocal and opaque about it. The timekeeper stopped the clock with 0.2 seconds left for no apparent reason, a Tennessee player was fouled with "0.2 seconds left" -- after the game should have ended -- and that's the only reason the Lady Vols "won" that game.

Home job.

UPDATE: Looks like it may be overshadowed by the similarly bulls*** ending of the Georgetown-Villanova men's game.

UPDATE 2: A commenter writes, "The Thompson-Boling Arena clock, like the timing systems at most college arenas, is started and stopped by the officials on the floor. A whistle by any of the three officials stops the clock, and one of the officials pushes a button on his/her belt to start the clock. So your assertion that someone at the scorer's table caused the problem is a utterly unfounded."

I don't know who controls the clock, but I do know that what happened at the end of that game was very, very shady.

UPDATE 3: From the Knoxville News-Sentinel:

The game clock can only be stopped by an official's whistle, according to Tim Reese, the arena manager.

"Officials are using a precision-timing device, which is used by the SEC and most of the major conferences," he said. "It's tied into the control panel, and controls the game clock."

In addition to the whistle and an attached microphone, the officials also are armed with a belt pack, which sends a wireless signal to the clock.

That's interesting, but it doesn't explain how or why the clock stopped at 0.2 seconds, then started up again and ran down to 0.0. There is no possible explanation for what occurred that doesn't involve a screw-up by somebody. If it was the referee who screwed up rather than the timekeeper, then fine. But it was still a screw-up, and Rutgers still won that game, 58-57.

P.S. Here's some of what Rutgers coach C. Vivian Stringer had to say about it:

It was a great game with two ranked teams in a great atmosphere for a great cause for all the right reasons. It's just unfortunate that those kinds of things happen. I'll probably write a book on all that. I'm getting used to it by now, but we'll learn from it. It doesn't take away from a great Tennessee team and a great coach and a great everything. ...

(On whether she asked the officials about the clock) "Yes. They said everything was fine. The foul was called before and they had looked at the clock on the monitor and the foul was called before time went off the clock. So now we've got bad eyes too." ...

(On the final outcome of the game) "The two teams are too good for that. It's not Pat's (Summitt) fault and it's not Tennessee's fault, unfortunately. Probably what I would have to say about that situation is that I just want to be able to coach my team in the next couple days. It has nothing to do with Tennessee and it has nothing to do with those players and those coaches. Unfortunately, that is human error. I just happen to be on the end of human error too many times with too many erasers at the end of my name and I'm so sorry, because these young women deserve better. The clock froze."

"The game did not deserve this. Tennessee didn't deserve this. Pat didn't deserve this. Those great players didn't deserve this and neither did my great team deserve this. It is what it is."

Indeed.

Watch out! Cheney wants a gun!

By JLR

Almost exactly two years after Dick Cheney shot his friend, Harry Whittington, Dick Cheney has broken ranks with the rest of the Bush Administration and decided to oppose the DC gun ban.

I just thought the timing of his announcement was a little ironic :-)

WGA strike nears end; Oscar pool begins!

By Brendan Loy

It looks like the Hollywood writer's strike will end on Wednesday. As always, Nikki Finke is the indispensable source for any and all information about this.

In celebration of the end of the strike, and the fact that it now appears the Academy Awards will actually happen as planned on February 24, I figured now would be a good time to open the polls in my 4th annual Oscar Pool!

[UPDATE: Due to technical problems with the server that hosts the Oscar Pool, e-mails of contestants' picks are being delayed. Supposedly, they'll go out eventually. To be safe, however, you may want to wait to enter the pool until this problem is cleared up.]

I'll put the link in the sidebar, too, so people can enter later, once the big day gets closer, if they prefer. Point values and tiebreakers are the same as they've been in prior years. (See, e.g., last year.)

As usual, I greatly prefer if you use your full name, or, failing that, a pseudonym that readily identifies you (e.g, a nickname you use regularly in comments). First-name-only contestants and other insufficiently identified entries may be disqualified. (Otherwise, we end up with four different, effectively anonymous "Andrews" competing against each other.)

Enter here.

The Honorable Tom Lantos, z"l

By Joe Loy

The only Shoah survivor ever elected to the U.S. Congress, Tom Lantos of California, has died at the age of 80.

A passionate fighter for human rights ~ from age 16 when he escaped the deathcamp and joined the underground Resistance, until the day he died ~ this irreplaceable man will be sorely missed by all who love freedom.

Zichrono Livracha: May his memory be a blessing.

Lieberman won't be a superdelegate

By Brendan Loy

Heh:

Thanks to Zell Miller, there is a rule to deal with Joe Lieberman.

Lieberman's endorsement of Republican John McCain disqualifies him as a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention under what is informally known as the Zell Miller rule, according to Democratic State Chairwoman Nancy DiNardo.

Miller, then a Democratic senator from Georgia, not only endorsed Republican George Bush four years ago, but he delivered a vitriolic attack on Democrat John Kerry at the Republican National Convention.

The Democrats responded with a rule disqualifying any Democrat who crosses the aisle from being a superdelegate. Lieberman will not be replaced, DiNardo said.

The Yaley Daily has more. (Hat tip: NRO.)

I can't say I blame the Democrats for this one. I'm a little surprised they were planning to invite him to Denver in the first place, actually.

I must admit, though, at purely impish level, I'm mildly disappointed. It would have been extremely amusing to hear something like this at the convention:

Mr. Speaker, the Great State of Connecticut, the Nutmeg State, home of the NCAA women's basketball national champion UConn Huskies... [YAY!! WHOO!!]

...and home of the Big East runner-up UConn men's basketball Huskies, who recently made yet another trip to the Sweet Sixteen... [Yay!]

...and home of the Big East co-champion UConn football Huskies... [YAY!]

...Connecticut, with its great senior senator, a fine American and a loyal Democrat, Christopher J. Dodd...  [HURRAH!]

...and with its four fine Democratic representatives, Rosa DeLauro, John Larson, Joe Courtney and Chris Murphy... [Woo!]

...Connecticut, the Constitution State... ["Vote!"]

...the state that, in 1687, struck a blow for democracy by hiding its state charter in the Charter Oak... ["VOTE!!"]

...and the state that will, in 2008, strike another blow for democracy... ["VOTE!!!"]

...by helping end eight disastrous years of Bush/Cheney/McCain government... ["Boo!" "Yay!" "VOTE!!!!"]

...by casting its seven electoral votes for the next Democratic president of the United States... ["Hear, hear!" "Hurrah!" "VOTE!!!!!"]

...Mr. Speaker, Connecticut casts 35 votes for Senator Barack Obama, 25 votes for Senator Hillary Clinton, and 1 vote for Senator John McCain.

Hee hee. Would've been fun. Oh, well.

Mike Huckabee's Ryan McBride moment

By Brendan Loy

Let 'er rip!

(Members of the Newington High School Class of '99 with long memories will understand the reference in the title of this post. Everyone else, move along, nothing to see here...)

Darwin saaad....Bridger gone

By David K.

Veteran actor Roy Scheider passed away today at the age of 75. A cause of death was not given, however he has been treated in recent years for multiple myelome, a type of cancer which affects cells in bone marrow.

Scheider is most famous for his role as Police Chief Martin Brody in the first two Jaws films, as well as Captain Nathan Bridger in the television series seaQuest DSV, both projects involving Steven Spielberg as prodcuer or director.

Later in his career, despite earlier success his roles were mostly in lower rated films, often playing military officers or the President (a role he played 3 times).

He is survived by his three children and his wife Brenda.

Huck cries foul after Washington "loss"

By Brendan Loy

Just what Washington state needed: another election controversy.

Obama romps in Maine

By Brendan Loy

The one state this weekend where Hillary Clinton hoped to notch a win, Maine, has instead crushed her evil heart, going big for Obama.

Meanwhile, there is talk of a possible John Edwards endorsement -- though we don't know for whom. More here.

UPDATE: Another win for Obama:

Barack Obama topped a Clinton in another contest on Sunday -- the Grammys.

The presidential candidate beat both former Presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter to win best spoken word album for his audio version of his book "The Audacity Of Hope: Thoughts On Reclaiming The American Dream."

But does he get any delegates for it?

Hillary's plan to steal the nomination

By Brendan Loy

The New Republic doesn't mince words in its criticism of Hillary Clinton's plan to -- and I quote -- "steal the nomination" by giving retroactive significance to the facially meaningless primaries in Michigan and Florida:

[T]heft is the only way to describe the plan [Clinton] has floated for certifying the Florida and Michigan delegations.

The back story is simple: The Florida and Michigan legislatures moved their primaries forward in the calendar to exert greater influence on the nominating process. But, by scheduling their primaries before February 5, they broke rules set by both the Democratic and the Republican parties. The GOP punished these scofflaw states by stripping them of half their delegates to the Republican National Convention. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) took them all away--and, so, the Democratic candidates did not campaign in these states.

Without ads and stump speeches--Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan--the actual primary votes in these states were meaningless beauty contests, and perhaps not even that. Knowing that their ballots meant nothing, many voters stayed home. And, as everyone expected, Hillary romped to victory on the basis of her brand name and voters' lack of familiarity with the alternatives.

You can certainly debate the merits of the DNC's move. What is beyond debate, though, is that all the major Democratic campaigns accepted this move without complaint. Clinton, along with her rivals, signed a pledge not to "participate" in the Michigan and Florida primaries.

But as soon as it became clear, in the wake of Iowa and on the eve of South Carolina, that Clinton potentially faced an extended battle for delegates, she began to demand that the rules be changed in the middle of the game. Her campaign has been arguing that the non-contested elections in Michigan and Florida should be made retroactively meaningful--and, therefore, that Clinton should be handed a gift of nearly 200 delegates. The Clinton team has wrapped its case in the logic of voter disenfranchisement. "I hear all the time from people in Florida and Michigan that they want their voices heard in selecting the Democratic nominee," Clinton has said.

There is a perfectly cogent case to be made that Floridians and Michiganders deserve their say. (Some of our best friends and elderly relatives reside in those states.) The way to address this complaint is to schedule new elections so that candidates can advertise, make speeches, organize voters, distribute yard signs--you know, do "democracy," a concept Clinton seems not to understand. The DNC, if it does decide to redress Clinton's complaint, needs to do so immediately.

The New Republic hasn't endorsed any candidate in this race. Our staff is divided, like the Democratic electorate.

But neutral observers can't stand idly by as one campaign openly discusses stealing the nomination at the convention. Democrats need to recognize this potential gambit for what it is: a cynical, selfish hijacking of the democratic process. Clinton would not be laying the groundwork for this ploy unless it was potentially decisive. And the damage to Democrats (and democrats) would be profound. If Clinton is truly willing to trample so many institutions she professes to care about in pursuit of victory, she will have proven her enemies correct.

My blogging on the Michigan and Florida controversies has thus far looked at it from the perspective of a political junkie obsessed with procedure and delighted by chaos, but as a substantive matter, TNR is 100% right; what Hillary is proposing is absolutely outrageous. It's doubly outrageous with regard to Michigan, where the sole reason Clinton "won" is because Obama removed his name from the ballot entirely -- a move that was entirely in keeping with the spirit of the candidates' pledge, but one that Clinton cynically chose not to reciprocate. As a result, Michigan was far, far less than a beauty contest. It was a nullity. If Clinton gains a decisive advantage from her "win" there, her nomination will be grossly illegitimate. And prevailing on the basis of her Florida "win" would only be slightly less illegitimate.

Any intellectually honest Clinton supporter must necessarily admit all of this. There is simply no logical rebuttal to TNR's argument, no principled defense for what Hillary is proposing to do. Unless, that is, we are to declare that the whole process is a sham anyway, so it doesn't matter -- in which case, why are we even bothering with any of it? As blatantly imperfect and at times ridiculous as the primary and caucus system is, surely it is preferable to respect the process rather than subordinating it to one candidate's blatant power-grab.

If Obama were doing the same thing that Clinton is doing, I would certainly condemn it (and would, in fact, quite probably renounce my support for him altogether if he were to go through with it). I assume Clinton's supporters feel the same way, and I urge them to tell her so.

For my part, I can tell you right now that if Clinton wins the nomination through these ridiculous shenanigans, I will become much, much more likely to vote for John McCain in November -- or, if I ultimately conclude that I'm unable to support McCain, then for a third-party candidate as a protest vote. I just don't know if I can see my way clear to voting for someone who would show such blatant disregard for the democratic process as Clinton is proposing to do.

Anyway, this simply cannot be allowed to occur -- for the sake of the country, the Democratic Party, and the Clintons themselves.

(Hat tip: Joe Mama.)

P.S. Now, on the other hand, if either Clinton or Obama wins because of superdelegates -- which isn't really an "if"; one of them will -- that's arguably undemocratic too, but it's undemocratic in a way that is specifically foreseen by the process everybody agreed to. What makes Clinton's Florida/Michigan gambit so outrageous is that it would change the mutually agreed rules of the game midstream for pure self-interest, and would do so in the same of democracy, when in fact it's an entirely undemocratic move. It must not happen.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Sen. Hillary Clinton has replaced her presidential campaign manager.

Happy Birthday, Mom!

By Brendan Loy

Today is my mom's birthday -- or perhaps, considering that I'm typing this with a certain half-asleep, half-fussy baby in my lap, I should say Nana Loomer's birthday. :)

Happy Birthday, Mom/Nana!

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will win the Republican primary in Louisiana, CNN projects

Obama's latest speech

By Brendan Loy

Starting around the 11:00 mark, he does a good job making the case for why he's the more electable candidate against John McCain (a point that I've harped on repeatedly, and one with which Frank Rich and Peggy Noonan, among many others, agree). The rhetoric is largely recycled from past speeches, but I think he delivers it particularly well here. (Though I must say, I was somewhat surprised to learn that lobbyists apparently are not "American people.")

P.S. Interesting slip of the tongue, or at least odd phraseology, where he said, "I'm looking forward to being on the ticket with Mark Warner." Ostensibly, he was just referring to being on the same ballot as Warner in Virginia as the latter runs for U.S. Senate this November -- he made a reference to "riding his coattails" -- but... hmm... Obama/Warner '08? :) Presumably not, given the very Senate candidacy in question. But still.

Huckabee FTW! (or not?)

By Brendan Loy

As results from the only two states in the country that don't use the Multistate Bar Exam continue to trickle in...

With 37% of the precincts reporting in Washington state, Huckabee has the lead!!! It's Huck 26.9%, McCain 23.2%, Paul 20.6%, Romney 18.3%, Uncommitted 10.9%. (Seriously, the high level of support for Mitt, who dropped out two days ago, is somewhat bizarre, no?)

Huckabee's also up in Louisiana, 48% to 38% with 40 percent reporting. Can you say "Huck-a-sweep"?

The New York Times's Washington and Louisiana results pages are your best bets for the latest results.

UPDATE: CNN's John King points out that Louisiana's primary is a "beauty contest" unless somebody gets a majority, and based on their projections, "we are certain that no candidate will pass 50%." So even if Huckabee wins, he gets bragging rights, but little else.

UPDATE, 11:30 PM: With 78% reporting in Washington, McCain has taken a slim lead, 25.7% to 24.0%. Ron Paul is within striking distance, too, at 21.4%. Romney's at 16.2%, and Uncommitted is a strong 12.7%. What a weird result.

Meanwhile, Huck's lead in Louisiana has narrowed to 44.6% to 41.0%, with 82% reporting. And Orleans Parish, which McCain is winning overwhelmingly (60-22), is only half in. Also, East Baton Rouge Parish, where McCain leads 48-31 (and which has a lot more GOP votes than Orleans), is only 19% in. If those trends hold, methinks McCain may pull this one out.

UPDATE, 12:18 AM: 97% reporting now in Louisiana, and Huckabee is still barely ahead, 43.4% to 41.9%. More to the point, he's up by 2,276 votes. Orleans is 90% in, and East Baton Rouge 83% in. This is going to be very close -- and, of course, utterly meaningless.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Barack Obama wins Louisiana Democratic caucuses, CNN projects

Results

By Brendan Loy

The Seattle Times has 'em all on one page, and they seem to be up-to-date.

As noted below, Huckabee has won Kansas, and Obama has won Nebraska and Washington -- by very wide margins, in all three cases. The big question marks now are Louisiana (both parties) and Washington on the GOP side.

UPDATE, 10:08 PM: CNN calls Louisiana for Obama.

Actually, to be more precise, Wolf Blitzer said that "In the state of Louisiana, Barack Obama, Barack Obama, will carry Louisiana." Why, Wolf Blitzer, why, do you always, always repeat yourself, yourself, when you, you, are talking, Wolf Blitzer?

Also, Obama apparently won the Virgin Islands. So, he's 4-for-4 tonight. Nice.

Now... what about the GOP? Will the Huck-a-sweep happen??

Saturday night's all right for voting

By Brendan Loy

Mark Halperin has the rundown of this weekend's primaries and caucuses. Today's first results could come in shortly after 5:00 PM EST, from Kansas (GOP only) and Washington (both parties). Later, the mighty Virgin Islands (Dem only), Nebraska (Dem only) and Louisiana (both) will report in. And tomorrow, the Dems vote in Maine.

Predictions? I'm going to say, in an effort to stem the tide of my own irrational exuberance, that Hillary pulls a narrow upset in Washington (though I hope I'm wrong), Obama wins big elsewhere, and Huck takes Kansas but loses Louisiana by a hair and is blown out in Washington, notwithstanding my previous ruminations to the contrary. :)

On an unrelated note, it's Notre Dame 63, Marquette 52 almost midway through the second half. The Irish look impressive.

UPDATE: Notre Dame wins, 86-83, surviving a late Marquette run thanks to clutch free-throw shooting. That'll help them in March, if they keep it up.

UPDATE 2: Huckabee romps McCain in Kansas, 66% to 22% (with 11% for Ron Paul). Wow! (That's with 76% of the precincts reporting.) Maybe I was too Huck-a-bearish in my predictions...

UPDATE, 8:26 PM: With 35 percent of the precincts reporting in Washington state, it's 67% to 32% Obama. (Official results here.) Hooray for yet another faulty Brendan Loy prediction! :) Nothing yet on the GOP side.

So far, indications are good for Obama in Nebraska, too.

UPDATE, 8:32 PM: CNN is now projecting that Obama will win Nebraska. And it's another huge win: 69% to 31% with 73 percent reporting.

In Louisiana, meanwhile, the Obama campaign is complaining of voter irregularities.

UPDATE, 9:25 PM: With 17% of the Washington GOP precincts reporting, it's McCain 27%, Huckabee 26%, Paul 21%, Romney 17%, Uncommitted 9%. Did they miss the memo that Romney dropped out? And that Paul is nuts? ;)

Meanwhile, the Louisiana results are just beginning to trickle in. ABC News "does not have enough information to project the winner of the Louisiana Democratic primary, but Obama is leading New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, based on exit poll estimates. There is not enough information to project whether Arizona Sen. John McCain or former Gov. Mike Huckabee will win in Louisiana on the Republican side."

P.S. Commenter "CD" gives a first-hand report on the Washington Democratic caucuses. She also reported on last night's Obama rally.

Shuttle in orbit; visible with ISS next weekend

By Brendan Loy

I somehow missed this, but the Space Shuttle Atlantis blasted off yesterday for a planned 12-day mission. The schedule calls for Atlantis to dock with the International Space Station tomorrow, and remain docked until 6:35 AM EST next Saturday, February 16.

That timetable creates the potential for some awesome spaceship-gazing opportunities in the continental U.S. next weekend, as the ISS is scheduled to make three separate evening passes over our neck of the woods shortly after undocking -- on the 16th around 6:40 PM and again around 8:15 PM, and on the 17th around 7:00 PM. If past experience serves, the ISS and Shuttle will at that point be visible as separate dots traveling side-by-side through the sky, and will be very, very cool to see. You can bet I'll be keeping you updated as those viewing opportunities get closer, assuming the schedule holds.

To find out when you can see the Shuttle and ISS from your location (including some more immediate viewing opportunities while they're docked), as well as other satellites, Iridium flares, and so forth, go to Heavens Above.

Super Tuesday drags on in N.M.

By Brendan Loy

They're still counting in New Mexico, where Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 1,123 votes (about 0.8%) with thousands of provisional ballots still to be tallied.

Hanging in the balance: one delegate, "bragging rights to another popular vote victory," and of course, the outcome of the Irish Trjoan Super Tuesday Contest -- a crucial implication that the Associated Press inexplicably failed to mention. :)

(Hat tip: my dad, who will clinch the combined contest and stay alive in the Democratic contest if Clinton hangs on.)

The freedom pledge

By Brendan Loy

In my obsessive political blogging throughout the last month or so, I've occasionally been criticized for focusing too much on the horse race, at the expense of the issues -- a criticism that is unquestionably well-founded. :) So here's an issue for y'all to discuss: the Presidential Freedom Pledge.

I learned about it via this post on TPM. Basically, it's a ten-point list of constitutional committments that each presidential candidate was asked to sign. Obama did; Hillary didn't. (She wrote up this letter instead.)

Reading over the pledge, I think I agree with every point except possibly #10 -- at least as applied to organizations -- and the last sentence of #7. But I've only very briefly considered. I'm curious what my readers think of it, and what significance, if any, to ascribe to Obama's signing it and Hillary's not doing so.

P.S. Relatedly, here are Clinton's and Obama's responses to the Boston Globe's survey about executive power. And while we're on the subject, here are McCain's.

Big games tomorrow for USC, ND

By Brendan Loy

I've been so focused on politics during my limited, non-baby-consumed free time over the last month that I haven't been able to pay much attention to college basketball -- and when I have, my attention has usually been focused on USC or Gonzaga. But Notre Dame has been doing really well, building a 7-2 Big East record, with two of those wins (along with both losses) on the road. The Irish are currently alone in second place in the conference standings, and ranked #21 or #22 in the country, depending on which poll you believe. Admire Mike Brey!

Anyway, tomorrow at noon in a nationally televised ESPN game, they'll look to avenge one of their road losses -- their worst loss of the season, in fact -- against #16 Marquette. That's always a fun game at the Joyce Center, with a boisterous visiting crowd. Hopefully the Leprechaun Legion will be up to the challenge. Go Irish, Beat Golden Eagles!

Also tomorrow: USC vs. Wazzu. The Trojans have improbably rallied from their 0-3 conference start to take sole possession of third place in the Pac-10 with a 6-4 record -- and five of their remaining eight games are at home. Tomorrow is one of the three road games, against struggling Washington State (the Cougars have lost 4 of 5 after starting 16-1 overall and 4-1 in conference). Big-time game for 'SC, though alas, the ABC telecast at 3:30 PM is regional; we get Texas-Iowa State instead. Harumph. Regardless: Fight on Trojans, Beat the Cougs!

Dobson to endorse Huckabee

By Brendan Loy

That'll help in Kansas and Louisiana tomorrow...

What Huck needs is for some other unrelated major breaking-news event to happen tomorrow, distracting the media, so he can quietly win KS and LA, thus signaling to his attentive Virginia supporters that he's still viable, without getting the attention of McCain's Virginia supporters. Thus, the McCainiac independents/centrists in the Old Dominion State will vote for Obama on Tuesday (and perhaps a few McCainiac security/experience voters will vote for Hillary), and Huck's true believers will be able to drive a low-turnout, winner-take-all upset...

P.S. Halperin's schedule shows that Huck is in Kansas -- not Louisiana -- all day today. Does that mean he thinks Louisiana is in the bag, or that it's unwinnable? Or just that he's only one man, and can't be in two places at once? (This is one of those times where a super-superdelegate would come in handy.)

P.P.S. After the jump, I do my flips about Huck's chances in Washington state, which may be better than you think!

Continue reading "Dobson to endorse Huckabee" »

The check's in the mail

By Brendan Loy

Well, not really. Not until May, in fact. But the economic stimulus package is headed to President Bush's desk, and he will sign it.

You can view the full text of the bill in PDF form here, or in HTML form here (click the bottom link).

Where's my hat tip?

By Brendan Loy

The Washington Post imitates the Irish Trojan. ;)

Lambert the Sheepish Lion

By Brendan Loy

As Becky and I were driving back from a workshop about Loyette's brain at the Fountain City library this evening, we drove past an establishment called Lambert's Health Care. Becky asked: "You see that sign that says Lambert's? When I was a kid..." -- I already knew what she was going to say -- "...there was a cartoon called..."

"Lambert the Sheepish Lion," we finished the sentence simultaneously, then started singing the theme song aloud, in unison. Laaaambert, the sheepish lion / Laaaaambert, there's no denyin'...

We'd never talked about that particular cartoon before in the eight years we've been together (eight years this month!), but we both remembered it very well from our respective youths, having watched it multiple times on the Disney Channel. I have no idea why it made such an impression, but practically whenever I see the name "Lambert," it's the first thing I think of. (Sorry, Terrail and Miranda.)

Naturally, when I got home, I Googled it -- and was delighted to discover that the whole thing is on YouTube:

Considering how well Becky and I each independently remembered that cartoon -- and considering it's been around for 57 years -- I figured a few of y'all might get a kick out of it. :)

Obama-related miscellany

By Brendan Loy

Mark Halperin makes a good point: Romney's departure from the race, and McCain's consequent coronation by the media as the nominee presumptive (Huckabee notwithstanding), could help Obama by bringing over more McCainiac independent voters to the Democratic side in the open primary states -- which include Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Texas and Indiana.

Of course, if that happens, it will also help Huckabee, as I noted vis a vis Virginia in comments earlier.

Speaking of Obama, Andrew Leyden sends along an interesting article about the cult of Barack. Although a few of my recent posts about Obama might lead some to conclude that I'm a cultist, I actually understand and sympathize to some extent with the sentiment being expressed. I do think Obama has the potential to be a transformational politician, but it's important not to get too carried away in praise of him. And I, like Joe Klein, was a bit put off by his comment that "we are the change we seek," and annoyed by the flatly untrue "it's not different because of me, it's different because of you." I think I even objected to it aloud while watching the speech with Becky.

(As an aside, I actually thought his Super Tuesday speech was by far the weakest of his post-election speeches thus far. It went on about five minutes too long, it repeated too much material from earlier speeches, he flubbed a line or two, and the implicit swipe at the Katrina response in his reference to the hours-old devastation in Tennessee and Arkansas was grossly inappropriate in its timing.)

Don't get me wrong, I'm still on the Obama bandwagon, but that doesn't mean I won't criticize him -- or his "cult" -- when I think it's deserved.

Anyway, one last link before I stop: Five reasons Hillary should be worried.

[Actually posted at 10:17 PM, but timestamp bumped backwards. -ed.]

Oh really?

By Brendan Loy

Time's Joe Klein says that Obama "should be very worried that this nomination is likely to be decided in the big working-class primary states of Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania."

Let's fact-check that assertion, shall we? As I mentioned yesterday, there are 1,428 pledged delegates still outstanding. Of those, 193 are from Texas, 158 from Pennsylvania, and 141 from Ohio. That's a total of 492 -- barely a third of the total.

Now, if it were possible for one candidate to sweep all of those delegates, that could certainly be decisive. But as we know, and presumably Klein has figured out by this point, the Democratic delegate allocation system is proportional, not winner-take-all, so the most Hillary can hope for is something like a 100-delegate edge in those states (that would be if she earns about 60% of the delegates), probably less.

Even in Clinton's best-case scenario, Obama has more than enough opportunity to make up that hypothetical 100-delegate edge in the various other states that make up two-thirds of the remaining pledged delegates -- including ones more favorable to him, like, oh, pretty much every state that votes this month (total delegates: 538). And of course, that all ignores the superdelegates, who, contra Klein, are truly the constituency in which "this nomination is likely to be decided."

Continue reading "Oh really?" »

Tomorrow's CW today

By Brendan Loy

If they aren't already, I predict that the national media -- once they wrap their collective head around the fact that we are now looking at a two-man race between McCain and Huckabee -- will soon begin saying that Virginia is Huckabee's last stand. With its 63 winner-take-all delegates and its North/South split personality, the Old Dominion, which votes next Tuesday, is the place where Huck must prove he can beat McCain head-to-head (and, more importantly, deny him 12.8% of the 492 additional delegates he needs to wrap up the nomination).

Of course, first the Huckster needs to win Kansas and Louisiana (on Saturday), but those ought to be gimme states for him. (Right?) Virginia is a less obvious possibility, but, looking at the calendar and crunching the numbers, I think he absolutely needs it in order to maintain any sort of rationale for continuing his campaign.

Ultimately, to stop McCain from getting a delegate majority, Huckabee is going to need to win states like Wisconsin and Ohio, which strikes me as highly unlikely. (He won Iowa, of course, but that was in a five-way race.) But I think he can remain a viable candidate through at least March 4 (when not just Ohio but Texas, which presumably is friendly Huck territory, holds its California-style, district-by-district winner-take-all primary) if he wins Virginia on Tuesday. Otherwise, forget it.

UPDATE: Okay, a slight modification to the above. As I glance at a couple of the sites in my blogroll and see that the pundits are basically saying that Romney Dropping Out = McCain Wins, I think it might be more accurate to say that Huckabee needs to win Kansas and Louisiana on Saturday just to get (or recapture) the media's attention. Then the "Virginia is Huckabee's last stand" talk can begin in earnest.

Fellow horserace-watchers: Am I wrong to just assume that Huck will win those states? (I also assume McCain will win Washington state on Saturday, and D.C. and Maryland on Tuesday.)

P.S. WKRN-TV's "Volunteer Voters" blog -- which, incidentally, has been linking to me a lot in recent days (thanks, guys!) -- says that even if there's a McCain-Huckabee back-room deal, as many expect, Huck will nevertheless stay in the race for a while to prevent Ron Paul from getting too many delegates.

Bradley Effect alive and well?

By Brendan Loy

A pair of UW researchers has studied the polls and the primary results, and has concluded that the Bradley Effect is happening in states with small (<10%) black populations, causing Clinton to do better against Obama than the polls suggest -- while, in states with large black populations (>25%), a "newly discovered" Reverse Bradley Effect benefits Obama. (Hat tip: CD.) Here's the chart of their results. (It doesn't state which pre-election poll numbers they were using.)

It is important to note, as I stated Tuesday in a comment after somebody accused me of smearing Hillary supporters as racists because I brought up the Bradley Effect, that "people who fall prey to the Bradley Effect are not necessarily racists. They may be voting for the white candidate because they feel she's genuinely the better candidate, but lying about it [to pollsters] because they feel social pressure to vote for the black candidate just because he's black." Similarly, black Reverse Bradley voters may be voting for Obama for non-race-related reasons, but lying about it because they don't want to be pigeonholed as "racial loyalty" voters. Or are the Reverse Bradley voters white, and they don't dare admit to pollsters that they prefer a black man because they think they'll be perceived by their redneck buddies as racially disloyal? Hmm...

Anyway... I'm curious what our resident pollsters and statisticians think of this. Do the finding appear to be sound, or do they look like bunk?

If the findings are accurate, some