So... now what?

I didn't actually get to watch very much televised coverage of last night's Michigan results -- the American Idol premiere was on, we only have one TV, and I have a sleep-deprived wife with veto power :) -- but I did catch a bit of CNN's analysis late in the evening while I was trying to shush Loyette to sleep. I saw Anderson Cooper game-planning the next few weeks of primaries, and it seemed to me that he was talking for the first time about a brokered GOP convention as a serious possibility, as opposed to just a pundits' dream. And he's not the only one. Our resident Republican realist Andrew, who is not exactly prone to making wild and crazy predictions, wrote this in comments last night:

Romney wins Michigan, and I think Huckabee wins a close but very divided field in South Carolina. I honestly think we have a great chance to get to the RNC with Huckabee holding a slight plurality of delegates, but Romney, McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani will broker amongst themselves to take the nomination and shut out Huckabee.

He adds that this "may not be a bad thing" for the GOP, and makes a pretty interesting argument for that point of view, but you can read the full comment for that. I'm just focused on the fact that this brokered-convention thing is looking like a real live possibility. In fact, it's getting harder and harder to see how it won't happen.

The key to preventing a brokered convention, it seems to me, is for Giuliani to completely collapse. Because if, as expected, he wins the winner-take-all northeastern states -- New York, Connecticut, New Jersey (hat tip: Halperin) -- and gets at least a sizeable share of the vote in Florida, California, etc., he'll have a decent chunk of delegates. And certainly, Huckabee is going to rack up a bunch of delegates, too, from evangelical support alone. But I don't think either of those polar opposites of the Republican coalition can cobble together a majority.

There's probably more than enough space in between the poles for a single anti-Huck/anti-Rudy candidate to get a majority of delegates. The problem is, there is no such candidate right now -- there are three of 'em! That trio may soon be down to two -- Romney's win last night is bad news for Thompson, and if he doesn't win (or finish a close second in) South Carolina this Saturday, he may be finished -- but it's now impossible to imagine either McCain or Romney dropping out before Pooper Scooper Tuesday. Unless one of them dominates the non-Rudy, non-Huck states on that day, it's hard to imagine the GOP delegate count being anything other than a hopelessly splintered four-way race...

...unless Giuliani doesn't win those northeastern states, and doesn't do well in the other Rudy-friendly locales like Florida and Cali. His support has been fading, and 3% in Michigan (behind Thompson and Paul, again) isn't exactly a vote of confidence. What if the "Giuliani Republicans" in the northeast abandon Rudy for McCain? Or, what if McCain and Giuliani split the moderate/centrist vote -- and emerging "conservative" front-runner Romney wins those states? I don't think either scenario is inconceivable.

But unless something like what I've just described happens, I don't see how any Republican is going to earn a majority of delegates at the polls. Of course, I haven't exactly been on a roll with my predictions lately (I said Romney would win New Hampshire, McCain would win Michigan, Obama would not lose a single primary, and Ohio State would beat LSU), so now I've just destroyed any hope of a brokered convention by predicting it. Darn it. :)

P.S. I just added the Maine GOP caucuses (February 1, in between Florida and Super Tuesday) to my countdown sidebar at left. Respect Maine! Remember (the) Maine! Are you listening, Fred? Heh.

Comments

[Joe Loy]

Yes indeedy :)

[David K.]

I saw part of American Idol last night, the part with the whacked out star wars fan girl. She gives nerds a bad name...

[kcatnd]

You mean Ohio State will beat LSU right?

[Brendan Loy]

Er, yeah. I'm a dumbass. Thanks.