Romney wins Michigan; on Dem side, a moral victory for Uncommitted?

The polls aren't closed yet in Michigan's westernmost counties, but early results are trickling in from the rest of the state. On the GOP side, it's Romney 37%, McCain 31%, Huckabee 16%, Paul 6%, Thompson 4%, Giuliani 3%, Uncommitted 3%, with 5 percent of the precincts reporting. The Mitt-McCain-Huck split is pretty consistent with the leaked exit poll numbers.

Meanwhile, on the Dem side, it's Clinton 62%, Uncommitted 33%, Kucinich 4%, with 6 percent reporting. Will Hillary beat Uncommitted 2-to-1? So far, she's not!

UPDATE: CNN calls it for Romney.

Other networks, too.

Mitt takes home the gold!

P.S. You know what this means? Chaos!

UPDATE 2: On the Dem side, exit polls show that among African-Americans, it's Uncommitted 69%, Clinton 25%! This does not bode well for Hillary's chances in South Carolina.

Meanwhile, in the Las Vegas debate, Clinton and Obama continue to tone down the racial talk. More here.

UPDATE, 10:13 PM: Uncommitted is closing the gap!! With 59 percent of the precincts reporting, it's now Clinton 58%, Uncommitted 37%. Hillary's already under her embarassment threshold, and I'm guessing there are some urban precincts still to report, as they tend to come in late. With Hillary's horrendous showing among African-American voters, could this end up something like 55% to 40%? That would be humiliating on the order of Bush-Buchanan New Hampshire '92, no?

In any event, it certainly looks like a moral victory for Uncommitted!

P.S. Welcome, InstaPundit readers!

UPDATE, 6:51 AM: Did I call it or what? With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, it's Hillary 55%, Uncommitted 40%, just like I predicted above. Kucinich got 4%, Dodd 1% (his first breakthrough into single digits!), Gravel 0%.

But wait -- here comes the spin! Clinton's campaign manager says, "Tonight Michigan Democrats spoke loudly for a new beginning." And so they did: they gave nobody in particular almost as many votes as the "inevitable" Mrs. Clinton!

Comments

[PenguinSix]

CNN just called it for Romney with 10% of the votes counted.

[Condor]

CNN call$ it for Romney!

[Scientizzle]

Interesting footnotes on the CNN page:

• Michigan lost all 156 of its Democratic delegates for allocating delegates outside of the Democratic National Committee-approved timeframe.
• Michigan lost 30 of its 60 Republican delegates for allocating delegates outside of the Republican National Committee-approved timeframe.

I must have totally missed that controversy.

[Brendan Loy]

Yeah, that controversy is why Michigan effectively doesn't have a Democratic race.

The same is true in Florida.

[Andrew]

Romney wins Michigan, and I think Huckabee wins a close but very divided field in South Carolina. I honestly think we have a great chance to get to the RNC with Huckabee holding a slight plurality of delegates, but Romney, McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani will broker amongst themselves to take the nomination and shut out Huckabee.

Getting to the RNC without a presumptive Republican nominee already in hand may not be a bad thing. I could very well envision the GOP candidates and the 527s spending loads of money throughout the summer dragging HRC or Obama through the mud, and no matter who the Dem candidate is, the Dems wouldn't have a solid GOP target to return fire. Plus, if the GOP doesn't have a nominee until after the RNC, maybe that tilts media overexposure in the GOP favor, as the electorate will already be tired out from hearing about HRC or Obama all summer.

[texasyank]

I could live with either McCain or Romney, but I noticed Mitt spoke just after McCain started and (as the winner) was given the air time. I seem to remember McCain waiting in NH for the also-rans to speak. Just wondering: is there a protocol and did Mitt break it? If so, it's a shame.

[yea]

i like the format of this debate. russert is a prick and will ask tough questions. hillary is actually looking really good tonight. i might not feel that bad when i have to vote for her in the general.

[David K.]

There should be a 1-3 week period in which all primaries and caucuses are held, that way EVERY state matters.

On a side note it bothers me that state funds are used to print and count ballots for the parties to choose their candidate. Either hold an open primary where you can vote for ANY candidate in each spot or pay for it yourselves.

[Marty West]

It's obvious there was voter fraud in Michigan.

[Sandy Underpants]

It's obvious that there's a lot of people with no lives in Michigan to go and vote for a meaningless Democratic primary. What the hell is the point? And isn't it unamerican to take that right away from... Americans!?!

And yes Ron Paul wins again. He's beaten Guiliani and Thompson in 2 of the 3 primaries.

Now, We're #4!!! We're #4!!! We're #4!!!!

[Dave]

texasyank, I make no bones about my support for McCain, but Romney's choice to take the podium not 30 seconds after McCain started speaking was ridiculous. McCain allowed his opponents to concede in NH, and Huckabee did the same thing in Iowa; Romney should have given them the same courtesy tonight.

Romney's supporters will no doubt cast this as a brilliant tactical move to deprive their staunchest opponent of free network air time. But it only goes to show, once again, that Romney is a man who will do anything, say anything, and spend anything to win the nomination.

In case you'd like to know what McCain said, here's a link to his remarks: http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/PressReleases/Read.aspx?guid=c91adc69-8fe5-4445-b37d-365b516964e2

All this said, congrats to Romney for finally winning a "gold" tonight - by eight points, in his home state, where turnout was expected to be lower than 20%. I think Russia won a bunch of golds under the same conditions in 1980...

[Marty West]

RON PAUL FTW!!!

[Elroy Jetson]

All of the talk about who took the podium 30 seconds after whom is not going to matter at all when it comes to ultimately deciding who is going to be the nominee. It just does my heart good to see the non-conservative candidates lose. Wonder how the MSM is going to spin this.

- I'm with Fred!
(but I'll support Rudy or Mitt)

[Vampyrela]

Great, just great. A one-two for Mitt Flip and Juan McCain.

Nice to know that when the election comes, I will get to vote 'pandering socialist' across the board, no matter which party I choose. Lucky me.

-Obama will give me "change", though I would suspect his idea of "change" won't have much benefit for a guy like me.

-Hillary will give me everything I want as long as I don't pay attention to what it all actually costs.

-Mitt will gladhand his way through his term as greasily as Clinton did, doing nothing but looking very presidential.

-McCain will make sure that people who break the law get to stand at the front of the line.

Great, just great.

[Sandy Underpants]

Has Romney ever actually said anything? Every damn time he speaks on the stump, tonite, at the debates he says not only the same thing, but the EXACT same thing. America wants change, and I'm the only candidate who can bring change to Washington. WTF? Mitt, you're the exact same thing that's been running Washington the last 200 years you 2 dimensional, robotic tool.

[peterike]

'Obama will give me "change", though I would suspect his idea of "change" won't have much benefit for a guy like me.'

Ha. If Obama wins, a year later "change" is all you'll have left. In your pockets.

[European News Review]

Everything is not black and white in politics. It is gray.

Hillary will choose Obama as her vice president. And he will take it.

They will combine to take the gray vote.

If they do not, the Democratic Party will be split along black white lines and they will lose.

They are likely smart enough to realize that and will eventually work together.

[Joe Loy]

"With Hillary's horrendous showing among African-American voters, could this end up something like 55% to 40%?"

Per recent reports, with like 97% of precincts In, it seems to be ending up Exactly like that: 55-40. / However it's not (to me at least) an Unexpectedly horrendous showing among Afro-Am voters. It's roughly what I would expect from now on. The recent Kerfuffle has greatly accelerated the incremental Consolidation of said vote that was occurring, more slowly, anyway.

"That would be humiliating on the order of Bush-Buchanan New Hampshire '92, no?"

Well sinced you asked: No. / But I like the analogy anyway because it reminds me of oul' **Paddy J.'s pleased-as-punch invocation of the image of his "Peasants with pitchforks, comin' over the hill!" :}

"In any event, it certainly looks like a moral victory for Uncommitted!"

Yes & let me modestly point out that Uncommitted's long&winding Road To The White House :> actually began when I so farsightedly Mandated the automatic Ballot Status of this formidable Candidate in Connecticut's first Presidential Primary Law, back in the Jurassic '77. :] See, I always Knew this Day would come. ;} Now if only Michigan still had any Delegates to her Name, Uncommitted would have Won a boatload of 'em today. (No, really. Uncommitted is treated like Any Other candidate. If he meets the Threshhold, she wins Delegates. Of course it can Release them if desired. :)

**Footnote re Buchanan: today Chris Matthews asked him if he thought Michigan's open primary, with Boredom on the Dem side, would encourage Democrats to cross over and vote for Romney in order to boost the Weaker Republican. Patrick said Why sure, We tried to Do that in '72 in Wisconsin, telling Nixon Republicans to go vote for McGovern. / This bit of Dirtytricks Nostalgia left Matthews laughing harder than anybody except Buchanan himself. :)

[JD]

Has Romney ever actually said anything? Every damn time he speaks on the stump, tonite, at the debates he says not only the same thing, but the EXACT same thing. America wants change, and I'm the only candidate who can bring change to Washington. WTF?

Well, it's working for Obama.

[Clyde]

The main difference between Michigan and Florida is that both Obama and Edwards are on the Florida ballot, so there won't be any controversy about people not being able to vote for the candidate they prefer. I know, because I received my sample ballot in the mail the other day, and it shows the candidates for both parties. The other difference is that Florida is a closed primary state, meaning that only registered Democrats and Republicans can vote for their candidates, and they can't cross over to cause mischief for the other party. Frankly, I think that's a much better system. Anybody should be able to vote for anyone they want in the general election, but in the primaries, the people who are registered party members are the ones who should decide which candidate they want to carry their standard in November.

"And yes Ron Paul wins again. He's beaten Guiliani and Thompson in 2 of the 3 primaries."

Too bad that doesn't mean jack shit.

[yea]

9:11,

it means a few things actually. it shows how little support former front runner guiliani actually has in these early primary states. it also shows that a significant base (5-10%) of the republican party is extremely disatisfied with the current platform of the party. paul has enough money to go to the convention. paul might be to win post feb 5th states when other candidates drop out and get delgates to be a force in a brokered convention. too bad most primaries are winner-take-all so i doubt he'll be able to get a lot of delagates.

[Brendan Loy]

9:11,

Channeling Rudy much? :)

[Joe Mama]

Guiliani never polled well in the early primary states; his strategy has always been to put his eggs in the FLA primary basket prior to the bigger states' primaries. His status as "former front runner" says more about how wrong the media and others were to dub him as such on the basis of early national polling (well before a single vote had been cast) than it does about Rudy's faltering campaign. I'm not saying Rudy's was necessarily a good strategy, but it was and remains the only viable strategy for him to get the nomination. Ron Paul's "victory" over Rudy thus far doesn't change the fact that Paul won't win a single primary, while Rudy still has a shot at the nomination given how fractured the Republican field still is.

[Brendan Loy]

His status as "former front runner" says more about how wrong the media and others were to dub him as such on the basis of early national polling

Yeah, those media pundits sure are dumb. What kind of idiot would declare Giuliani the presumptive nominee based on nothing but early national polls?

Oh... right... nevermind...

;)

[Sandy Underpants]

Obama may not say anything, but he says it so well and changes his speeches throughout. Robotney says, "Washington DC is broken and we're the one's who will fix it". He's a washington outsider you know. I mean his dad was the governor of Michigan and his mom ran for senate. A 2nd generation politician (x 2), Romney's biography is the antithesis of his canned spam speeches.

Ron Paul kicked Fred and Rudy's asses... again. Expect another smackdown style beating in South Carolina where one candidate will not survive. "Nobody knows who will get the republican nomination" but everyone should agree that if the guy everyone knows WON'T get the nomination is getting twice and three times as many votes as Fred and Rudy in the first 3 primaries-- those two fossils definitely aren't going to get the nomination.

[Joe Mama]

Ron Paul definitely won't get the nomination. It's a wide open field for the other candidates.

[Joe Mama]

... well, not for Thompson if he doesn't finish first or a strong second in SC, and not for Rudy if he doesn't win or tie in Florida. But ruling either of them out at this point in time is premature to say the least. Ruling out Paul is obviously not premature.