GOP chaos theory
Some good analysis of the Republican race from Larry Sabato:
Just as in 2000, McCain will face tough challenges in the South and among conservatives and strong Republican party identifiers as he moves beyond New Hampshire and Michigan (where he has to be rated the early "momentum" favorite against native son Romney). The key question is this: Can McCain manage to carry states he lost in 2000 by becoming as much of a darling in his own party as he is among Independents and the news media? If so, McCain could emerge as the nominee this time around. Yet McCain is despised by various wings of the GOP for his pro-immigration, anti-Bush tax cut, and pro-campaign finance reform stands. McCain must win over some of these voters, mainly using the electability argument--"I'm the one who can defeat Clinton or Obama in November, and the other Republican contenders cannot." If McCain fails to make progress with these key target groups, either his hopes for the GOP nomination will be dashed or a conservative independent candidate may arise to take a critical several percent of the general election vote from GOP nominee McCain in November. Of course, Hillary Clinton will remain the Republican nominee's best friend, assuming she's the Democratic standard-bearer. Having responsibility for electing Hillary may deter some possible independent conservatives.
South Carolina on January 19th looms as a critical test for McCain versus Huckabee, and possibly Romney, if he's still in the race, and Fred Thompson, who apparently is still running after his 1 percent showing in New Hampshire--no, that number was not a misprint. Rudy Giuliani's strategy of waiting until Florida on January 29th to make his stand has appeared improbable for some time. Nonetheless, even Rudy's gambit has a chance of working under the right circumstances. Giuliani has always hoped for chaos in the Republican field, with different candidates winning different contests in January, and chaos could be descending on schedule.
Chaos could also potentially help Fred Thompson, which is why, contra Marty, he ought not even consider dropping out of the race at this point, his non-misprint New Hampshire disaster notwithstanding. Even if he can't win at the polls, Thompson -- who, alone among the Republican contenders, isn't viscerally hated by a sizable portion of the Republican electorate -- could be a plausible "savior" candidate in the event of a hopelessly deadlocked convention.* Though perhaps not as plausible as Brian's suggestion, Haley Barbour.
*Of course, in theory, Thompson could drop out of the race and still step in as a savior later on. But it'll be easier to emerge at the convention if he at least has some delegates to start with.
While in part true, there's a very real possibility that McCain runs the table in the pre-February 5 primaries (Michigan, South Carolina, Florida), and wins the Maine caucus as well. Granted, there are assorted things that have to occur in the interim, but a Romney flop (i.e., 3d place) in Michigan + a Thompson flop in South Carolina (i.e., 3d place), plus a chance of McCain using that momentum to pull of a Florida win (closed primary), might be enought to avoid "chaos."
While there are so very many possibilities between now and then, I think this one is becoming increasingly likely, and therefore minimizes the anti-McCain sentiment that may exist in portions of the GOP.
Posted by: Derek | Jan 10, 2008 1:32:14 PM
Does a savior candidate really have a legit shot though? Let's be real here.
Posted by: Marty West | Jan 10, 2008 2:51:38 PM
it defies belief that Mccain could win the nomination, given his very vocal support of the immigration amnesty push in 2007. Less than a year ago he was teamed up with Hillary and Ted Kennedy on that bill... Have Republicans forgotten?
Posted by: john | Jan 10, 2008 3:02:57 PM
Does a savior candidate really have a legit shot though? Let's be real here.
I dunno, I think if Jesus ran he'd do well, he's got the social justice policies that appeal to liberals (love thy neighbor, share with others) and he's freakin Jesus so he'd have the religious right voting for him too! It'd be a landslide!
Posted by: David K. | Jan 10, 2008 4:02:13 PM
Vote for Jeebus.
Posted by: Marty West | Jan 10, 2008 4:37:30 PM
Vote for Jesus-Mohammed: the ultimate Unity 08 ticket. Take that, Bloomberg!
Posted by: Brendan Loy | Jan 10, 2008 4:43:31 PM
Or, better yet, perhaps Jesus-Satan '08. They'll win Utah for sure, right, Governor Huckabee?
Posted by: Brendan Loy | Jan 10, 2008 4:44:59 PM
How about a Pete Carroll / Charlie Weis ticket?
Posted by: | Jan 10, 2008 4:50:20 PM
They already said Jesus/Satan '08.
Posted by: Sandy Underpants | Jan 11, 2008 1:37:01 AM