Fredmentum: a four-way race in S.C.

Finally, a post-debate poll is out in South Carolina, and it shows Fred Thompson surging into a virtual tie for second place with Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. According to Rasmussen, John McCain leads with 28%, followed by Huck (19%), Mitt (17%) and Fred (16%).

The previous Rasmussen poll, four days ago, had McCain at 27%, Huck at 24%, Mitt at 16% and Fred at 12%. So it looks like Thompson's frontal assault on Huckabee's conservative credentials is working: Huck's down 5 points and Fred's up 4. Fred-mentum!

Says Fred File: "We are not surprised. South Carolinians know a consistent conservative when they see one. ... Fred has the conservative message Republicans crave; he has the ideas to keep America secure and strong; and he has the leadership ability to keep the Reagan coalition together."

Now Thompson needs McCain to bury Romney tonight in Michigan, thus hopefully turning the Palmetto State into, effectively, a three-man race. You'd have to think a lot of Romney's support among National Review-ish conservatives would go to Thompson if the king of silver medals drops out (or, more likely, stays in the race but looks like a lost cause). The question then becomes whether a strong second-place finish in South Carolina (behind McCain, well ahead of Huck) would be enough to keep Fred's campaign going, or whether he needs to go on the attack against McCain, in a "win at all costs" gambit.

[UPDATE, 2:02 PM: I guess that answers that!]

Methinks a strong second might be good enough. If Romney fades, the stars may be aligning for Fred to become the anointed "real conservative" alternative to McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani heading into Super Tuesday. But he needs South Carolina to, at the very least, make him look like a credible contender. (And, not unrelatedly, he needs money.)

P.S. Can Thompson make a play for (at least second place in) Florida? He's polling in fifth now, but that could change, no? He was a distant fourth (fifth, by some measures) in South Carolina a few days ago, and now he's in the thick of it. Thompson is sort of like the anti-Hillary: the more people pay attention to him, the more they like him. Maybe he just needs to jump and down and say, "Look at me!!"

On the other hand, Florida's early voting is an obstacle.

P.P.S. What about Maine?? Its caucuses are right between Florida and Super Tuesday, so everyone else will be ignoring it.* Maybe Fred can bomb the state with some last-minute ads, and/or a brief campaign visit, and pull off a stunning upset -- which he could then parlay into further Fred-mentum and, more importantly, pre-Super Tuesday campaign contributions.

Only one problem: are there any actual conservatives up in Maine? :)

P.P.P.S. Can Fred win the Perot vote?

P.P.P.P.S. He was a not-too-distant third place in the last Maine poll, in October. And he's got blog support! Maine for Fred! Heh. It could happen!

*...unless a desperate Romney goes there in search of another "gold" before February 5. Mitt Romney, President of Wyoming and Maine!

UPDATE: "Actually there are lots of conservatives in Maine," writes Jane, in comments. I actually don't know a lot of Maine's political makeup, so I will defer to the superior wisdom of anyone who does. My reference to the "Perot vote" wasn't a joke -- you gotta be at least somewhat temperamentally conservative to vote for Perot, no? Not to mention, willing to buck conventional wisdom? Well, ol' H. Ross finished second in the Pine Tree State. My gut tells me there could actually be an opening for Fred, if the conditions are right (e.g., McCain and Giuliani focusing their efforts elsewhere, Romney doing the same or already out of the race).

Comments

[Jane]

Actually there are lots of Conservatives in Maine.

[Joe Loy]

"Mitt Romney, President of Wyoming and Maine!"

Yes but if Romney's ruthless rise to Power follows hard on the heels of Rudy's election as Mayor of Florida, Hizzoner may launch an immediate pre-emptive Invasion of Mitt's Two-State Solution to bring about Regime Change. I.e. of course you Know, this means War. :>

[yea]

it'll be amusing to see how romney spins it if he wins michigan because of dailykos. i think hed probably take it at this point. hes still polling strongly/solidly everywhere but hasnt had any sort of surge like huckabee and mccain have had.

[Brian Foster]

Hey, where's the call for Michigan predictions?

McCain 29%

Romney 26%

Huckabee 21%

Thompson 11%

Giuliani 7%

Paul 6%

[yea]

romney's future is surging on intrade in the last 2 hours. if you believe in the efficient market hypothesis then something is up and its looking for a big night for mitt romney.

[yea]

just to clarify thats romney's michigan primary future.

[Brian Foster]

Well dang, if that's true (both for my prediction and based on what I wanted to have happen).

Although -- while I accept the EMH in business, I'm less certain it functions well for politics (i.e., I doubt the market for political results information is efficient).

A fella can dream anyway.

[Brendan]

yea, can you explain the Daily Kos reference? I don't understand.

[yea]

If it makes you feel better it was horribly off on nh. Obama was >90%. It was fascinating watching it drop rapidly within an hour. Obama's democratic nomination future dropped from like 65% to 35% within 90 minutes or so that night.

[yea]

brendan,

kos has a campaign going on encouraging all independent/democratic voters to vote for romney in the michigan primary. his logic is that since there is essentially no democratic michigan primary, a vote for romney is the best thing for the democratic party. he feels that a romney win will prevent mccain from running away with the nomination, and thus prevent any strong republican candidate from emerging for a little while longer.

[Brian Foster]

Brendan,

Just a guess, but I believe yea is referring to an attempt at having Dems skip the mostly meaningless Dem primary and, instead, vote in the GOP primary for Romney in order to slow down McCain's bus.

[Brian Foster]

Heh -- looks like I didn't wait long enough. :) Sorry yea.

[Lowell Brown]

I'm a little amused at the dismissals here of Romney. Fred hasn't come close to winning anything and hasn't shown anywhere near the fund-raising prowess Mitt has. If Mitt falters, Fred's my man, but you guys are talking like jerks.

[a mccoy]

I'm a S.C. independent voter that supports Romney & have gotten my parents,sisters,& other relatives & friends to go with Romney. Some of my friends thought about voting for Thompson,but I told them he would be better as a Vice Pres. candidate.
We'll see what happens on Jan. 26th.