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I'm Brendan Loy, a 26-year-old graduate of USC and Notre Dame now living and working in Knoxville, Tennessee. My wife Becky and I are brand-new parents of a beautiful baby girl, born on New Year's Eve.

I'm a big-time sports fan, a politics, media & law junkie, an astronomy buff, a weather nerd, an Apple aficionado, a Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter fanatic, and an all-around dork. My blog is best-known for its coverage of Hurricane Katrina, but I blog about anything and everything that interests me.

You can contact me at irishtrojan [at] gmail.com, or donate to my "tip jar" by clicking the link below:

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« CNN Breaking News | Main | Hillary still leading »

A question

Did New Hampshire's independents outsmart themselves, believing that McCain needed them more than Obama did, and thus deciding to vote Republican in greater-than-expected numbers... producing a McCain landslide and a Clinton-Obama squeaker?

P.S. Or maybe it's Diebold's fault.

UPDATE: Welcome, InstaPundit readers! Much more about Hillary's stunning victory here.

Actually, though, Hillary didn't win. She tied Obama, 9-9, in the delegate count.

UPDATE 2: In comments, Jim Hu links to his analysis of the numbers, which suggests that my "independents outsmarted themselves" hypothesis doesn't fit the data. The key point is that the polls actually got Obama's percentage total about right. They just badly lowballed Clinton's total. From Real Clear Politics, you can see that Obama was expected to finish in the 35% to 40% range, and that's exactly where he was: 37%. But Clinton was expected to get around 30%, and instead she got almost 40%! The logical conclusion seems to be not that Obama's supporters voted in the wrong primary, but that Clinton overwhelmingly won the undecideds.

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Comments

I'm sure you'll see this in due time, Brendan, but Rich Lowry is wondering the same thing:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDM0MDY2YjE2YTA0ODc4MTM2NTQ1YjVmODJhZmZiZTk=

Heaven forbid that the Independents were simply not swept up by the "change machine" and decided to pick McCain.

Who cares? If what we are sseing is our future leader, we have little to cheer for. This characters don't have a clue what this country needs. One thing for sure, whoever wins, we deserve what we get.

Why do we deserve what we get? Incumbistan makes the rules, the political class makes it more and more difficult to uproot it.
We deserve much better than we are getting.

The hypothesis, while interesting, doesn't fit the data

You got mentioned in Slate, too. Well done, Brenners!

I am a nh voter who voted by absentee ballot. I can say this is exactly what I did.

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