A hypothetical election question...

This one is geared mostly towards Republicans, but anyone can answer.

So assume either Hillary or Obama is the Democratic presidential nominee, under what circumstances (if any) would you vote for one or the other so you could later say you voted for the first "insert female/black" President? Would it take a landslide showing in the national polls? The fact that your state always votes one way or the other? Something else? Nothing else? Would it be easier if it were Hillary? Easier if it were Obama? Easier if it Al Sharpton? Easier if it were Weird Al?

Comments

[JD]

The problem with wanting to "vote for a woman" is that it involves voting for that particular woman. The only way I could even consider voting for Hillary would be if Huckabee were my other option. I would say it would be easier for me to vote for Obama. (Unless it's an Obama/Clinton ticket, then all bets are off.)

I'd take Weird Al over both of them.

[Brendan Loy]

Wait, Weird Al is a black woman?

I wouldn't vote for either of them "so I could later say that I voted for the first [whatever] president." As a reason for voting for the President of the United States, I think that's almost as lousy as the reason given by my friend Brian for supporting John Rowland for governor in 1990, when we were in elementary school: "He has a moustache."

That said, I'd be increasingly likely to vote for Obama or Clinton if the GOP nominee were: McCain < Giuliani < Romney < Huckabee. (With the latter being the most likely to cause me to vote for the Dem, obviously.)

[Brendan Loy]

If it's an Obama-Clinton ticket, I will eat my arm. He wouldn't offer it and she wouldn't accept it.

(Given my track record with predictions so far this election season, my arm had better watch out.)

[Condor]

I agree, but would you eat your arm instead of the manditory crow, or in addition to the crow?

[Brendan Loy]

Perhaps some sort of arm-crow sandwich?

[Sandy Underpants]

arm with a crow on it.

Hillary/Obama is a lock. If not, Edwards can save his political fruity ass by quitting now and endorsing Obama to get the Obama/Edwards ticket rolling, but hairboy will stay in long enough to sabotage Obama's presidential bid and America will be screwed... not as bad as 04, but you get the idea.

[JimARealRepublican]

This is not a hypothetical for me. The decision is an easy one: under no circumstances would my vote go to either one, Edwards, Kucinich, or any Dem. My guess is that will be true of 95% + Republican males and 60% + of GOP females.

The operative axiom is that the first Black and/or woman elected President will be a Republican. It is far easier for a Dem to vote for GOP black/woman creature than the impossible proposition posed here.

As an example what if Colin Powell won the GOP nomination with Kay Bailey Hutchison as VP or vice versa. Unbeatable.

[DUP]

I'm abstaining just as I did last time.

None of these jokers have demonstrated competency in my eyes.

[Klug]

Um, no. I don't see the appeal of changing your vote for this reason.

Perhaps I betray my conservative leanings, but I don't find either first woman/Af-Am president to be stunningly historic. (It was bound to happen at some point. Arguably, it could have happened sooner.)It wasn't particularly momentous (although it was historic) when Pelosi took office, for example.

[Andrew]

Dumb question(s).

[Andrew]

Race and gender should have nothing to do with it, as Brendan pointed out. I won't ever vote for Obama or HRC, but I'll be the first to support Condi if she jumps in the ring.

[Anonymous Hoosier]

I don't understand the question. Why on earth would I vote for someone just so I could say I did, if I didn't favor them as a candidate already? And if I was that shallow, why wouldn't I just lie about who I voted for?

[Joe Mama]

under what circumstances (if any) would you vote for one or the other so you could later say you voted for the first "insert female/black" President?

None, since I'm perfectly capable of saying that right now ;-)

[Joe Mama]

Doh, Anonymous Hoosier beat me to it.

[Anonymous Hoosier]

Here's another dumb question, but it might attract more Republicans (at least those under the age of 40): if Ronald Reagan were on the ballot (but still deceased), would you vote for him just to be able to tell people you did?

[Rob M]

I would love to vote for the first black/woman president, Condi Rice. But she didn't run. Outside of that why would I vote for them if I can't find a single position I agree with them on? If my side goes down at least I can say I knew the first woman/black was a disaster for the country and voted against them.

Will we get bumper stickers that say "bring back a white guy"? Would my car get trashed?

(I of course, without Fred in the race, don't really have somebody I want to vote for right now as it is.)

[DUP]

I'd vote for Reagan. He couldn't do any worse than anyone running.

[Mike's brother Matt]

Yeah, I'd vote for Regan over any of these clowns. Then again, I'm in favor of reanimating Goldwater's corpse and running him for President. And I'm not even much of a Republican

[Mindsurfer]

In November 1960 I voted for the first Catholic President. I was living in Georgia at the time and they had just lowered the voting age to 18. Three years later, I was living in Hartford (Niles Street) when he was killed.
I voted for Nixon and he resigned, Reagan and he was shot, Clinton and he was impeached, and Bush II.

Now, which candidate do you really want me to vote for this time?

[MHiggo]

Life-long independent (note the small "i") here. I can't see myself voting for either one simply out of novelty. I want the best person for the gig, and for me, neither one fits the bill at the moment.

I'd take this non-corpse over Regan:
http://www.theonion.com/content/opinion/i_got_what_america_needs_right

As for Weird Al, he only gets my vote if Dr. Demento is his running mate and Stan Freberg gets a Cabinet position.

[PenguinSix]

Under no circumstances would I vote for either. Even if there was no Republican, I would vote for myself over those two.

[CORNHUSKERS 94 95 & 97]

The real point is what difference does it really make anyway it's not like your vote counts or matters in the general poplar election. and it's not like we are smart enough as a country to do anything about it I mean someone could write in for Ross Perot and 500k to a million morons would cast a vote for him.

[Josh]

I'm black / woman and want to be treated equal, but you should vote for me so I'm the first black / woman President.

Now, doesn't that sound stupid?!!?

[Bea]

I think most Republicans would find this question silly and would say they would vote for neither. The hardcore Republicans would never go Dem, and certainly not for those two, and Republicans like me likely find no fiscal appeal or any other appeal in either (or in most of the Reps running either). Generally, Republicans are not into the novelty aspect of voting for the first whatever. Emotional voters (many people fall in this category, like my apolitical mom who likes Hilarry because she's a woman) are the ones who might go for the "I voted for the first X" appeal, and the emotional Rep voters are mostly social conservatives, who won't go for Obama or Hillary.

I also won't vote for Huckabee if he's the Rep's nominee, incase you're wondering what non-social conservatives will do with Huckabee.

[David K.]

All very enlightenting answers, the topic came up amongst a casual conversation and since everyone participating was not republican i was curious what the reactions would be. I wonder if it would be different if it were a different woman running or a different black man, say Colin Powell, as a Democrat given how favored he is on both sides of the spectrum. Of course hypotheticals like this are just that

[Alasdair]

Andrew - I suggested that a Giuliani/Rice ticket would be a potentially powerful one ... the way things are shaping up, then a Romney/Rice ticket would work, too ...

I can see the bumper-sticker already ...

Yet Another RR Ticket We Can Support

(grin)

[Bea]

David, I think things could be a little different if a different Dem woman was running, but not necesarily different as in better odds for the woman. Hillary is just so polarizing, that her appeal as the first woman evens out with the ick factor she raises in others. Then again, unless a woman is perceived as hawkish/calculating/non cookies and milk, she cannot be taken as a serious candidate by many people, so it takes a Hillary-esq character to pull off the woman for president thing. It's why many people, even Dems, say the first woman president will be a Republican. Only a Republican woman can be perceived as heartless enough to send kids into battle, etc. That last sentence is tounge in check, but you hopefully get the idea. I am too tired to be more eloquent than that right now :)

It would be different if Powell or Rice were running too, because it would a whole different set of factors. You would be asking if Dems could vote for a Republican, if it meant voting for the first black/woman. Probably many wouldn't, for the same reasons I won't vote for Hillary or Obama--I have no rational/policy reason to go there. Beyond that, do Powell and Rice need the the black voters who think they are whitewashed sell-outs to win? or would non-black voters with subconcious racism vote for a black person and counter any black vote drop? I know for example that my apolitical mom would vote for Rice because she's a woman, much like she likes Hillary basically because she's a woman. But she also likes McCain, not sure why, maybe the vet thing, so I can likely swing her to McCain over Hillary. Emotional voters that would let gender decide their vote, would likely let other, competing emotional factors affect their vote as well. Basically, when your decision is not ideological/strickly partisan, or based on basic political principles (like say me and my fiscal conservative bent, which is stronger than party affiliation), anyone can convince you to vote for them if they pander to you just right. My mom is an educated person, and has become more politially savy, but she is still a good example of the educated yet emotional voter that makes up a large chunck of the independent voters out there (and the voters at large), in my estimation.