A good year to be a bubble team?

Seth Davis writes:

If you look at how down the Big Ten and SEC are, plus the fact that the Missouri Valley and the CAA are probably only going to send one team to the NCAA tournament, then it seems to me there could be a lot of at-large bids floating around out there heading into March.

That could be good news for USC, which is already flirting with disaster by starting its Pac-10 season 0-3. Heck, it could be good news for the whole Pac-10; there was preseason talk of a record seven or eight at-large bids for the nation's best basketball conference, and that seems like a more realistic possibility than ever with so many other leagues having "down" years. (I read speculation in ESPN The Magazine about the Big Ten potentially getting only two bids, three "at most" -- though frankly, I'll believe that when I see it.)

Comments

[Andrew H]

My early analysis of the Big 10:

Pencil the league in for 4 spots....Michigan St, Indiana and Wisconsin are all real solid bets. Ohio St is next in line as of now and also a good bet (not a great one). Minnesota and Purdue are in the discussion for now....with Penn St not out of the question. Illinois is a real long shot and NW, Iowa and Michigan have absolutely no shot.

All in all, I'd say 4 bids with 5 being more likely than 3. They'll get 3 bids at minimum and barring a perfect storm of bad results/injuries it's going to be 4-5.

[Andrew H]

One more comment, every year people talk around this time about 'how weak the bubble is this year'. It's about the same every year and in the end, every year there's going to be a bunch of teams that all look about the same and people will argue fiercely about who should make it.

Also....I think the Mo Valley will still get 2 bids although I agree that it's no sure thing at this point. Also, the A-10 is going to get more bids this year than the past few.