Irish Trojan in Tennessee

The future, Conan? Looking past Feb. 5

By Brendan Loy

With all the talk about the Democratic race stretching on beyond Super Tuesday, I think it's instructive to actually look at the calendar to see what lies ahead after February 5.

On February 9, Louisiana (56 delegates) and the mighty U.S. Virgin Islands (3 delegates) have primaries, and Nebraska (24) and Washington (78) have caucuses. The next day, February 10, Maine (24) has its caucuses. Then comes the "Beltway Primary" two days later, as D.C. (15), Maryland (70) and Virginia (83) all vote on February 12. So that's 353 delegates at stake in eight primaries and caucuses over the course of a week.

After that, things get a bit more chronologically sparse. One week after Beltway Tuesday, Wisconsin (74) has a primary and Hawaii (20) has caucuses, both on February 19. Then we get two weeks off before the potentially decisive primaries on March 4 -- the original Super Tuesday -- in Texas (193), Ohio (141), Rhode Island (21) and Vermont (15).

It seems pretty likely that the race will effectively be decided either on Beltway Tuesday or on Old Super Tuesday (a.k.a. Longhorn/Buckeye Tuesday). But if it still remains competitve, the calendar then starts to get really weird.

The great Democratic state of Wyoming (12) is all by itself with caucuses on March 8. Only a dozen delegates, but oh, the momentum! (Just ask Mitt Romney! Oh wait...) That will be followed by the Mississippi primary (33) on March 11.

And then.. nothing! For over a month!

The next vote is on April 22, when Pennsylvania (158) holds a primary. If the race is still going at that point, residents of the Keystone State will get to find out what it's like to be Iowa and New Hampshire: they will become the center of the political world from March 11 until April 22. Who'd have thunk it?

Leaving aside the primary in Guam (3) on May 3, there will effectively be another two-week break before voters in Indiana (72) and North Carolina (115) go to the polls on May 6. If they're still battling by then, I imagine Hillary and Barack would both visit South Bend, causing me to become extremely jealous. Next comes West Virginia (28) on May 13, then Kentucky (51) and Oregon (52) on May 20. Wrapping things up are Puerto Rico (55) on June 1, and South Dakota (15) and Montana (16) on June 3. (All of the May and June races are primaries, not caucuses.)

In my judgment (which, I remind you, is always, always, always, always, always wrong), Super Tuesday is likely to produce one of two scenarios in the overarching campaign storyline. Either: 1) Hillary wins enough states -- close delegate counts notwithstanding -- that she re-emerges as a "near-inevitable" candidate, and the Beltway Primary a week later comes to be seen as "Obama's last stand." Or: 2) Obama wins enough states that the commentariat continues to regard the race as legitimately close, and conventional wisdom will rapidly coalesce around the idea that March 4 is the new Big Important Day When Everything Will Be Decided. In other words, Old Super Tuesday is the new Super Tuesday!

But what if the race is still in flux when all the March 4 votes are counted? Some math is necessary here: according to the Green Papers, there are a total of 4,049 delegates (not counting Florida and Michigan), of which 3,253 are "pledged" and 796 are unpledged superdelegates. A total of 2,208 delegates are needed to secure the nomination. By my count, 2,643 pledged delegates will have been awarded through March 5, while 610 will still be outstanding. So, to secure the nomination with pledged delegates alone, a candidate would need to have won roughly 84% of the pledged delegates awarded between January 3 and March 4. Obviously, with a proportional-allocation system, that's not going to happen.

However, let's say the pledged delegate count when March 5 dawns looks something like Clinton 1,600, Obama 1,000. Hillary would still be a good 600+ short of clinching the nomination with her pledged delegates alone, but the fickle superdelegates would have begun flocking to her in droves (she's already got 186 of 'em) and the pressure on Obama to drop out would become enormous. Game over -- maybe not mathematically, but for all practical intents and purposes. Same deal, methinks, if it's around 1,500 to 1,100.

On the other hand, what if it's more like Clinton 1,400, Obama 1,200? That's a bit more interesting. Or how about Clinton 1,350, Obama 1,250? Now we're talking. Nobody's going to hound Barack out of the race with numbers like that. Hillary will get some more superdelegate commitments, but so will he, and suddenly, everyone will start focusing on the all-important April and May primaries in Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Kentucky and Oregon. Imagine.

Of course, if we get to that point, it will already have become impossible for either candidate to clinch the nomination with pledged delegates alone. And proportional delegate allocation means that those April, May and June states will only be able to nudge the delegate race a little bit in one direction or the other, not dramatically alter it, let alone end it. Basically, it'll be a battle to get as many delegates firmly in your corner as you can, while also starting the pre-convention posturing and politicking, lobbying the undeclared superdelegates and fighting over those Michigan and Florida delegate slates.

In the unlikely event that the race remains undecided to the bitter end, it'll be three very long months between the South Dakota and Montana primaries on June 3 and the first day of the convention in Denver on August 25.

(Information via NPR and Wikipedia.)

Mano-a-womano

By Brendan Loy

The great debate is underway on CNN. I may not be able to do much liveblogging because I'm trying to calm a fussing baby while I watch, so consider this an open thread.

UPDATE: Hillary says that, with regard to our Iraq policy, we need to "send several messages at once." Well, if there's anyone I trust to do that, it's the Clintons! ;)

UPDATE 2: Oooooh, she played the "gravitas" card!!

UPDATE 3: Obama's response a few minutes later to Hillary's "day one" rhetoric was excellent, though: "it's important to be right from day one." Notwithstanding our differences on Iraq specifically, I think that's exactly what Obama needs to do. When Hillary says she'll be "ready to lead from day one," Obama needs to invite to voters to ask, "But where will you lead?" This actually feeds into the broader Clinton character issue as well, because in actuality, the Clintons don't really "lead" so much as follow public opinion and poll numbers. Obama needs to make the case that whereas Clinton may be the so-called "experience" candidate, Obama is not just the "change" candidate but also the "leadership" candidate.

UPDATE 4: Clinton has an unfortunate habit of sounding like the Wicked Witch of the West when she laughs.

Loyette is one month old!

By Brendan Loy

I almost forgot to mention: today is Loyette's one-month birthday! In some ways, it's hard to believe it's been that long, and in other ways, it's hard to believe it's only been a month. It already feels like the little one has been a part of our family forever.

As I write this, Becky is sitting on the other side of the couch with Loyette in her lap, reading aloud the epilogue of Dostoevsky's Crime and Punishment -- which Becky checked out from the library as part of her quest to read the 100 greatest novels of all-time. (UPDATE: Becky points out that Crime and Punishment isn't actually on that list. She is planning to try to get through the list, though.)

Loyette seems to be enjoying hearing about Raskolnikov's adventures more than she enjoyed herself the one time I tried to read her the Balrog scene from Lord of the Rings... though I maintain that she was just coincidentally fussy at that particular moment. :)

Rove to join Fox News

By Brendan Loy

Drudge: "FLASH: Karl Rove will join FOXNEWS as contributor; likely used throughout Super Tuesday coverage..." Heh. I would say this will make liberals hate Fox even more, but I'm not sure that's actually possible.

Rove, incidentally, has an article in today's WSJ about the "new rules" (and some old rules) of presidential politics.

Super Tuesday held on Fat Wednesday in coastal Alabama

By Joe Loy

Yes, not wanting their annual Good Times Role :> to get Stuck Inside of Mobile due to some damn ol' Primary date changed by those idiots up in Montgomery, south Alabamians said to hell with That and voted yesterday :) ~

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) Feb 25 — Don't mess with Mardi Gras in Alabama.

Voters in two coastal counties — Baldwin and Mobile — will vote Wednesday even though the state primary is six days later on Feb. 5. The reason: Feb. 5 also is Fat Tuesday when throngs of people celebrate Mardi Gras on the Gulf Coast. The frenzied end to Carnival is an official holiday in the two counties in Alabama.

When the state legislature moved up the presidential primary from June 3 to Super Tuesday, it discovered belatedly that it fell on Mardi Gras. In Baldwin and Mobile counties, government shuts down and crowds by the tens of thousands jam the port city's streets for parades.

The legislature's solution was to let voters in those two counties go to the precincts six days early. The votes cast will be sealed and counted with the others on Super Tuesday.

...Mobile County, which has the most parades and balls, will have all its regular polling places open Wednesday and one place open in Mobile on Feb. 5. Baldwin County will have one polling place open on Wednesday and then all its regular polling places open on Feb. 5.

Yesterday's Mobile County turnout was reportedly strong, perhaps in response to Tuesday's wise editorial advice from The Press-Register:

If Mobile County residents want a say in who will be the party nominees for president of the United States, they need to say so tomorrow.

...On Tuesday, Feb. 5, the day of Republican and Democratic presidential primaries in Alabama, a large number of voters are going to be celebrating Mardi Gras. As the Press-Register's legendary Masked Observer reminds us, "Revelry mixed with democracy can only lead to unbridled insanity."

Only one polling place will be open on Feb. 5, at the Revenue Commissioner's Office at Michael Boulevard and Azalea Road, well away from the packed streets of downtown. If everyone waits until then, lines are likely to be long.

So avoid the Super Tuesday rush; if you live in Mobile County, you should vote on Wednesday.

:)

Poll shows Hillary landslide in Tennessee; Obama gaining ground nationally

By Brendan Loy

Some more new polls today, and the news is mixed on the Democratic side. In Georgia, which is supposed to be solid Obama country, InsiderAdvantage shows the Illinois senator with a big lead, 52-36. Obama gets 73% of blacks, 54% of Hispanics, and 33% of whites.

But here in neighboring Tennessee, which is supposed to be a hotly contested tossup/lean-Hillary state, the same firm's polling shows Clinton with a huge lead, 59-26. The poll was taken yesterday, and thus may reflect a shift of Edwards voters into the Clinton camp (though 7% still prefer "other"). But what's really surprising is that Clinton isn't just winning the white vote, 64-19; she's also winning the black vote, 46-43!

Moreover, Clinton has almost identical margins among men and women; she wins big in all age groups (with her biggest margin of all, 81-14, among 18-to-29-year-olds!!); and she is favored by self-identified Democrats, Republicans and Independents. So either this is a screwy poll, or Obama-mania really just hasn't caught on at all here in the Volunteer State. If Obama's internal numbers are showing a similar trend, maybe that explains his conspicuous absence -- this supposed battleground state may be, for whatever reason, a lost cause for him.

InsiderAdvantage also released a poll on the Republican race here in Tennessee, and it's much tighter, with McCain leading Huckabee and Romney 33 to 25 to 18. Thirteen percent are undecided.

UPDATE: On the bright side for Obama, he's setting fundraising records, and is already buying ads in post-Super Tuesday states. Barring an enormous Hillary sweep on Tuesday that re-establishes her "inevitability" and thus causes a paradigm shift in the media storyline, this race will go on for a while. As this chart shows (context here), there are a ton of delegates at stake on Tuesday, but a ton more after Tuesday, too.

Meanwhile, the very early returns from Rasmussen Reports suggest that Edwards's departure is helping Obama nationally:

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s now Hillary Clinton 42% and Barack Obama 35% [in the three-day average]. Last night was the first night of interviews without John Edwards in the race. For last night’s data alone, Clinton and Obama were essentially even. Samples for individual nights are very small and results should be interpreted with caution.

The daily history shows that it was 41%-32% Clinton (a 9-point lead) from January 28-30; now it's 42%-35% (a 7-point lead) from January 29-31. The big question is what happens tomorrow and the next day, when we'll see a three-day average that is entirely after Edwards's withdrawal. Gallup's tracking poll will also be worth watching closely; they had the race slightly closer (6 points) even before Edwards bowed out.

UPDATE: Gallup's new data is out. It shows the Clinton-Obama race narrowing further, from 42-36 in yesterday's three-day average to 43-39 in today's three-day average -- just a 4-point lead for Hillary!! However, Gallup's write-up says that "Wednesday night's numbers (the first with Edwards excluded from the ballot) show no clear indication that either candidate is benefiting disproportionately." I guess that means Obama's 2-point gain between Jan. 27-29 and Jan. 28-30 is an indication that Jan. 27 was a good day for Hillary, rather than an indication that Obama cleaned up among former Edwards voters on Jan. 30.

Kansas falls; USC-Arizona tonight

By Brendan Loy

#1 Memphis -- a winner at Houston last night -- is the only unbeaten left in college basketball, after #2 Kansas lost at #22 Kansas State, the Wildcats' first home win over the Jayhawks since the first Reagan Administration. (See, I can inject presidential politics into any post!)

You know what this means: North Carolina is in line to ascend to #2, and Duke to #3. We're getting closer and closer to that 1-vs.-2 matchup for Dukie V's big return. Duke just needs to win at home against N.C. State and Miami, UNC just needs to win vs. BC and at Florida State... and, oh yes, Memphis needs to lose at home against UTEP on Saturday. That last part is the major obstacle to this scenario. :)

Speaking of unbeatens, Drake is 10-0 in the Missouri Valley, and 19-1 overall. Unreal.

On tap tonight, a whole bunch of intriguing games, including a nationally televised USC-Arizona game at 10:30 PM on FSN. ESPN's Bubble Watch has the Trojans in the "work left to do" category (though that was before their win at Oregon) and the Wildcats in the "should be in" category. Joe Lunardi gives USC a #8 seed and UA a #5 seed at the moment. Both teams are 4-3 in the Pac-10, in a three-way tie with ASU (who USC also plays this weekend) for fourth place. Anyway... Fight on Trojans, Beat the Wildcats!

And now for something completely different

By Brendan Loy

Every single post on the homepage right now is about presidential politics. Ick. Overkill. As Obama might say, time for a change!

Let's see... how about a pretty picture of an Iridium flare?

I took that from a random roadside spot in Loudon last Monday. My parents were in town, and I wanted to show them what an Iridium flare is, so we drove out and watched it. We also dragged Jay and Ashley out to watch, so they got to meet my parents. The flare itself was somewhat less impressive than I expected, given its predicted negative-7 magnitude, but it made for a very nice photo, especially with the thin, wispy clouds all around. Here's the wider view.

Previous Iridium flare posts can be found here, here, here and here. Explanations of the flares can be found here and here.

Unless you're a serious dork like me, Iridium flares probably aren't worth a drive out to some random spot -- but if one happens to take place where you are, it's well worth a look up to the sky in the proper spot at the proper time. Heavens-Above can tell you when flares will happen near you. (It also has predictions for lots of other stuff, including when and where you can see that decaying spy satellite pass overhead, though you'll need a darkish sky for that.)