Irish Trojan in Tennessee

The Comeback Kid, Part II

By Brendan Loy

Have I ever blogged two consecutive posts that were more spectacularly wrong than yesterday's "Ohio State will win tonight" and "When will Hillary drop out?" -- the latter of which opined, "I don't think there is any way she can beat Obama. In fact, I believe that she will not win a single primary. Obama's momentum is already unstoppable, at least by her."

Heh. Oh, waiter! One order of crow, please!

So... what the hell happened? How did Obama go from a double-digit lead to a stunning defeat in just 24 hours? Was it Hillary's tears that turned the tide? Was it the fire in her belly at the debate?

Did the race-based Bradley effect, absent in Iowa, rear its ugly head tonight? Did women voters decide they didn't want the first serious female candidate for president to go down in flames in the second primary?

Did New Hampshire's much-ballyhooed independent voters outsmart themselves -- as I pondered earlier in an Instalanched post, and as Rich Lowry subsequently pondered as well -- by voting strategically for McCain because they thought he needed their support more than that unstoppable Obama freight train did?

Or did those maverick, independent-minded Granite Staters simply overdose on the MSM's Obama-mania, and decide that they were going to do something unexpected, dammit, because this is New Hampshire, and that's what they do?

I think that last theory might be the best one. But Mark Halperin offers some more possibilities.

Anyway, Obama has conceded, and now Hillary is speaking. I thought Obama's concession speech was pretty weak compared to his victory speech five nights ago, though I did like the line about people "who know that we can disagree without being disagreeable." I'm still watching the early part of Hillary's speech as I write this (I'm a few minutes behind on the TiVo, thanks to some crying-baby drama).

I was rooting for Obama, but what the hell. From the perspective of politics-as-sport, this is great. It means both parties are going to have competitive nomination battles. Awesome. (Or, as one NRO poster put it, "We will have Hillary Clinton to kick around anymore, and I'm glad.")

P.S. Hillary wants to "end the war in Iraq the right way." I like that.

P.P.S. She praises Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Kucinih, Edwards and Obama. What about Gravel??

P.P.P.S. Speaking of crying babies, I thought this was pretty amusing: "Can I get my 5-month-old daughter photographed with every presidential candidate?" Heh.

UPDATE: "They said this day would never come!" What day, you ask? Why, of course, the day when a National Review columnist would hold up Hillary Clinton as an "insurgent against the liberal MSM," proof that "voters can stand up against an emotional 24/7 media Valentine for one candidate." Hillary Clinton, conservative hero. Heh! (Hat tip: InstaPundit.)

UPDATE 2: Another theory on why Hillary did unexpectedly well: ballot order! "Prof. Jon Krosnick of Stanford University [argues that] the order of names on the New Hampshire ballot - in which, by random draw, Clinton was toward the top, Obama at the bottom - netted her about 3 percentage points more than she'd have gotten otherwise. That's not enough to explain the gap in some of the polls, which presumably randomized candidate names, but it might hold part of the answer."

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Sen. Hillary Clinton will win the New Hampshire primary after a tight race with Sen. Barack Obama, CNN projects.

Hillary still leading

By Brendan Loy

With 20 percent of the precincts reporting, it's still Clinton 40%, Obama 36%. At what point does the media start trusting the real numbers over the exit polls, and begin considering the possibility that Hillary won't just finish a closer-than-expected second, but may in fact win?

Maybe they know something I don't know about which precincts have reported, but I'm beginning to wonder.

UPDATE, 8:54 PM: With 24% reporting, now it's 40% to 34% Hillary!!

It's looking more and more like my prediction that Hillary "will not win a single primary. Obama's momentum is already unstoppable, at least by her" may join "Ohio State will win tonight" and my premature Giuliani gloating in the pantheon of embarrassingly wrong Brendan Loy predictions. But hey, at least I was right about Katrina! ;)

UPDATE, 9:02 PM: Tightening a bit now. Clinton 39%, Obama 36% with 26 percent in.

UPDATE, 9:03 PM: 40-36 with 29% in.

UPDATE, 9:21 PM: 39-36 with 38% in. Is Obama going to rally at some point?? Andrew Sullivan points out that the college towns of Durham (University of New Hampshire) and Hanover (Dartmouth College) haven't reported any results yet.

Meanwhile, I guess I was spoiled by Obama's victory speech in Iowa, but it strikes me that McCain's speech sucks. He keeps stumbling over his words and stuff. He seems tired.

UPDATE, 9:26 PM: Now 39-37 with 42% in. That's the closest it's been. Specifically, 40,090 to 37,766. Hillary by 2,324.

UPDATE, 9:30 PM: Hillary's margin down to 2,156 now. And about those college towns: CNN reports that a total of 6,000 people voted in Hanover -- 2,000 more than Hillary's campaign expected -- so the Clintonistas are worried about that. Another important college town is Salem (Southern New Hampshire University).

Aaaand now the margin is back up to 2,800. Still just 43% in.

UPDATE, 9:35 PM: Hillary's margin up to 3,024. 44% in.

UPDATE, 9:38 PM: Now 40-36 again, and a margin of 4,336, with 46% reporting.

The Boston Globe has the town-by-town results. Very useful for watching to see what happens in Durham, Hanover and Salem.

UPDATE, 9:58 PM: Salem is in, and Clinton won it, 2,867 to 1,508. But I think Salem's more than just a college town, and I may have misunderstood what the expectations were for it. Durham and Hanover are the ones CNN has been focusing on, and there are no results from them yet. Also Rindge, though it's much smaller.

Anyway, with 56% reporting, it's 39% (57,458) to 37% (53,935). Clinton by 3,523.

UPDATE, 10:03 PM: About McCain's speech, I wrote that it "sucks" before he got to the excellent war-on-terror language. Still, I'd say that his delivery sucked, even though parts of the speech itself were actually quite good.

UPDATE, 10:28 PM: Rindge is in. Again, Hillary won, 381-348.

I don't think Obama can win this. He's now trailing by almost 5,000 votes with 61% reporting, and from what CNN was saying about the number of registered voters in those college towns, I don't see how he can make it up unless he's got some other major pockets of support also outstanding (and Hillary doesn't).

A question

By Brendan Loy

Did New Hampshire's independents outsmart themselves, believing that McCain needed them more than Obama did, and thus deciding to vote Republican in greater-than-expected numbers... producing a McCain landslide and a Clinton-Obama squeaker?

P.S. Or maybe it's Diebold's fault.

UPDATE: Welcome, InstaPundit readers! Much more about Hillary's stunning victory here.

Actually, though, Hillary didn't win. She tied Obama, 9-9, in the delegate count.

UPDATE 2: In comments, Jim Hu links to his analysis of the numbers, which suggests that my "independents outsmarted themselves" hypothesis doesn't fit the data. The key point is that the polls actually got Obama's percentage total about right. They just badly lowballed Clinton's total. From Real Clear Politics, you can see that Obama was expected to finish in the 35% to 40% range, and that's exactly where he was: 37%. But Clinton was expected to get around 30%, and instead she got almost 40%! The logical conclusion seems to be not that Obama's supporters voted in the wrong primary, but that Clinton overwhelmingly won the undecideds.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Sen. John McCain will win the Republican primary in New Hampshire, CNN projects.

A Clinton comeback?

By Brendan Loy

Forget exit polls, real numbers are now coming in, as the polls have already closed in much of New Hampshire -- and Hillary's ahead! Clinton leads Obama, 11,734 to 11,097. That's with 10 percent of the precincts reporting... which is not a lot, but it's not nothing, either.

These will be mostly rural precincts, if I understand New Hampshire's poll-closing schedule correctly. Not sure what that means. Is Obama stronger in the cities?

Meanwhile, McCain leads Romney 37% to 28%, also with 10 percent reporting.

UPDATE: Now, as of 8:00 PM, CNN is projecting that Edwards will come in third, with first and second place undecided between Clinton and Obama. So their exit polls do not show an Obama landslide. Sounds like Lopez's numbers were about right. I'm telling you, this "record high turnout" may have been a bunch of bunk.

UPDATE 2: NBC reports that "Obama and Clinton are in a tight race which is too close to call." Time calls it "an unexpectedly close Democratic contest." And the spin has begun: "Clinton campaign officials are suggesting that a Clinton finish of less than 8 points behind Obama would make Hillary the 'Comeback Gal.' Note that in 1992 Bill Clinton lost to Sen. Paul Tsongas by eight points as well."

UPDATE 3: CNN projects McCain wins!

UPDATE 4: It's Hillary 40%, Obama 35% (!!) with 13 percent reporting.

UPDATE 5: If I'm doing the math right, I believe CNN's exit poll, based on gender, translates to an estimate of Obama 39%, Clinton 38%.

It shows 57 percent of the electorate being women, and Hillary beating Obama by a 45% to 29% margin among them. Obama won men 44% to 36%, but only 43 percent of the voters are men.

Also, Obama won almost 50% of voters under 40 years old, but just one-third of the electorate was in that age group. Among the two-thirds of the electorate 40 and over, Hillary won 42.5% to Obama's 34%.

So maybe there really was record-high turnout -- caused by a bunch of old women rushing out to vote for Hillary. Who knew?

Meanwhile, it looks like the "youth vote" fizzled again!

UPDATE 6: Dewey defeats Truman!

McCain by 6, Obama by 4?

By Brendan Loy

Kathryn Jean Lopez at The Corner says "I'm hearing leaked exits that have McCain winning by six and Obama by 4. But I'm skeptical—polls aren't closed, etc. Meaningless." And she adds in an update, quoting from a friend's e-mail, "turnout numbers suggest these exits could be even more unreliable than their usual unreliability. they depend on accurate turnout modeling."

On the other hand, do we actually know that the turnout numbers will reach the much-hyped "record highs"? As I mentioned earlier, "Poll workers and election officials are often overly excitable when it comes to turnout projections (presidential elections only happen every four years, so it's easy to forget how much higher the turnout always is than in other elections)." The fact that some New Hampshire cities are running out of ballots could mean the turnout is "epic" -- or it could mean that New Hampshire's local election officials were sleeping on the job.

For what it's worth, The Page reports that ABC's exit-poll analysis shows that "independents are voting in 'substantial but customary numbers,' and so far there’s a spike in older voters, but not younger ones (though they tend to vote later)."

In any event, whatever the turnout, I agree with Lopez that the individual candidate exit-poll numbers ought not be trusted; remember "President Kerry." But if -- if -- Obama were to win by only 4 points, the "expectations game" would label that a win for Hillary, no?

UPDATE: Mark Steyn advises Lopez to "pay no attention to" the exit-poll numbers. "Nobody's started counting. And I find it hard to believe the various town offices that have had to order up extra Democratic ballots are doing it because Obama's going to eke out a four-point victory."

On the latter point, I just want to reiterate that we don't know what the turnout is, or for that matter, what the "extra ballots" mean. They could very well mean that a bunch of polling-place workers, who were expecting a high turnout after Iowa, saw a normal turnout and overreacted to it (as polling-place workers are prone to do in presidential elections), panicked, called the secretary of state, and said, "TURNOUT IS HIGH!! WE NEED MORE BALLOTS!!" In other words, the fact that extra ballots were requested in the early afternoon doesn't necessarily mean they were actually needed.

Look, I'm not predicting a lower-than-expected turnout (or a smaller-than-expected Obama margin), I'm just saying that neither would be altogether stunning. Stranger things have most definitely happened. Turnout isn't a perception, it isn't a feeling, it's a number, and it's notoriously difficult to come close to pinpointing that number based on people's armchair estimates at midday.

Obama vs. McCain

By Brendan Loy

No, the title of this post isn't a general-election prediction (though it wouldn't be a bad one). It's a description of the all-important battle for New Hampshire's independent voters today. But NRO's Jim Geraghty thinks it's a battle both men can win:

In the final days before the New Hampshire presidential primary, the million-dollar question appears to be “will Independents vote for John McCain in the Republican primary or Barack Obama in the Democratic primary?”

The answer is likely to be that there are enough Independents — or “registered undeclared” —  to give each candidate what they need.

I hope so. We shall see.

By the way, if you're looking for early exit-poll results this afternoon, past experience suggests that you should check Drudge, The Corner and Wonkette. Remember, however, that past experience also suggests that such poll numbers are notoriously unreliable; just ask President Kerry.

Other sites to check, not necessarily for exit polls, but for frequently updated political news, commentary, and links: Mark Halperin's The Page, MSNBC's First Read, Taegan Goddard's Political Wire, National Journal's Hotline On Call, and The Politico. (Do you have other suggestions for this list? Leave 'em in comments!)

UPDATE: According to Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com, "we are unlikely to see any...leaked [exit poll] results until moments before the polls close." D'oh! (Hat tip: TNR's The Plank.) Halperin appears to confirm this.

UPDATE 2: Drudge has a siren up: "EPIC TURNOUT FOR DEMS -- We Are Out of Ballots!" He elaborates:

Secretary of State is making runs to Seacoast – Hampton, Portsmouth – and Southern Hillsborough – Pelham, Nashua – to bring extra democratic ballots. Many towns are reporting shortages... Developing...

Poll workers and election officials are often overly excitable when it comes to turnout projections (presidential elections only happen every four years, so it's easy to forget how much higher the turnout always is than in other elections), but if the turnout is truly "epic," that's excellent news for Obama. More here.

UPDATE 3: Heh:

Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani ran into each other outside the Brookside Congregational Church in Manchester, where Huckabee immediately asked the former New York mayor for his vote. “We get along beautifully on the trail," the former Arkansas governor said. "No animosity."

Say what you will about his policies, but by all accounts, Huckabee's a funny guy.

Three plays away

By Brendan Loy

If LenDale White gets a first down on that 4th-and-2 against Texas, if John David Booty doesn't throw an interception with 1:10 left against UCLA, and if Stanford's Tavita Pritchard doesn't complete that 4th-and-goal prayer from the 10 (or the 4th-and-20 moments before), USC is celebrating its fifth consecutive national championship right now.

I know: if, if, if. And throw in two more "ifs," because I'm assuming the Trojans would have beaten Ohio State in the title game the last two years, if they'd made it in (though that seems like a pretty reasonable assumption). Still, it's pretty incredible to contemplate how close 'SC has come to a dynasty like no other.

Ah well. Next year. BEAT THE CAVALIERS!!

I for one welcome our new SEC overlords

By Brendan Loy

Well, not really. But with LSU #1 and Georgia #2 in the final AP poll (just as I predicted), it's sort of inescapable. The drumbeat of SEC chest-beating will be unavoidable between now and next September. OMG BEST CONFERENCE EVAR!1!!

By the way, LSU was not a unanimous #1 -- second-ranked Georgia got 3 first-place votes, third-ranked USC got 1, and seventh-ranked Kansas got 1 -- but this wasn't even close to being a split championship. (Again, just as I predicted.) LSU finished with 60 first-place votes and 1,620 points overall. Georgia got 1,515 points; USC, 1,500.

Of course, as David mentioned yesterday, I'm sure LSU will graciously refuse to accept the Associated Press championship trophy. ;)

After the Tigers, Bulldogs and Trojans comes a tight battle for #4, which Missouri eked out with 1,347 points -- one more point than #5 Ohio State (1,346) and five more than #6 West Virginia (1,342). A bit further behind is Kansas, one of just two one-loss teams in the nation (the other being #19 Hawaii), with 1,303 points.

Rounding out the AP Top 15: #8 Oklahoma, #9 Virginia Tech, #10 Texas and Boston College (tied), #12 Tennessee, #13 Florida, #14 BYU and #15 Auburn. For those keeping score at home, that's five SEC teams in the Top 15. Please shoot me now. ... Of course, if you look at their records, you'll note that Tennessee, Florida and Auburn are the only four-loss teams ranked above #18, which is further evidence of the Kreutz Theorem ("when [pollsters] rank SEC teams, they automatically subtract a loss from their record"). Heh.

Michigan, if you're wondering, finished #18, the highest-ranked non-SEC four-loss team. Who can honestly say they saw that coming back in September? Oh, and Appalachian State got 5 votes, effectively tying them for 34th place with South Florida. HOT! HOT! HOT!

Anyway, on a more serious note: congratulations to the LSU Tigers! Whatever we may think of the BCS, the Bayou Bengals deserve credit for surviving this most turbulent of college-football seasons and earning, at last, an undisputed national championship... sort of. :) Well done, guys. Way to geaux.

P.S. This is the first time two teams from the same conference have finished the season ranked #1 and #2 in the AP poll since 1971, when the top two were #1 Nebraska and #2 Oklahoma of the Big Eight. (And it didn't stop there. Fellow conference-mate Colorado was #3!)

UPDATE: In the final USA Today coaches poll, USC edged Geogria for the #2 spot, 1,380 points to 1,370, and Ohio State headily beat Missouri for the #4 spot, 1,287 to 1,241, with West Virginia close behind Mizzou at 1,239, and Kansas at 1,217. Unlike in 2003, there were no dissenters from the contractually obligatory coronation of LSU as the #1 team.

UPDATE 2: As long as we're talking rankings, Stewart Mandel has posted his preseason Top 10 for 2008. Of course, much depends on various juniors' stay-or-go-pro decisions. But provisionally, he has Georgia at #1, Ohio State #2, Oklahoma #3, USC #4 and Missouri #5. LSU, which he says "will be hit harder by graduation than any of the other top teams from 2007," is #9.

The comeback kid: Romney?

By Brendan Loy

Mitt Romney is a flip-flopping, pandering idiot. (Hat tip: Sully.)

But he may yet win New Hampshire. It seems Mitt is mounting a rally.

If he does win, I guess we can put to rest the notion that Granite Staters have some special talent for spotting a "phony" by "ask[ing] tough questions and see[ing] through the baloney." (Though perhaps John Kerry's win on the Dem side in 2004 should already have debunked that notion.)

Anyway... predictions? Let's see. Here are mine: On the Dem side, Obama 41%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 21%, others 11%. And on the GOP side, Romney 32%, McCain 31%, Huckabee 16%, Giuliani 7%, Paul 7%, Thompson 5%, others 2%. (There are a whole lot of "others" to choose from.) Of course, I haven't been doing too well with predictions lately, so take those with several grains of salt... and, with regard to Romney, I fervently hope I'm wrong...

Putting the "student" back in "student athlete"?

By JLR

In yesterday's Washington Post, there was a decent article examining the pros and cons of a playoff system for college football.  I've already explained my position, and I've heard numerous arguments from the Brendansphere.  However, with a 2-loss "champion," I need to say it again: the BCS system sucks.  If App State can figure out how to have their students take their final exams even though they have playoffs, why can't Virginia?  (UVA purposely declined their invitation to the Champs Sports Bowl because it would have conflicted with exams).

And now I need to stop and look at what I wrote.  I'm a teacher, for chrissake ... A teacher who sometimes resents ploys arguments like this from athletic departments.  Somefeel the stress is too much ... maybe.

Some of the Appalachian State football players felt that way, crammed into the ballroom some 48 hours before playing the most important game of their season. Afterward, though, they also agreed the stress was worthwhile. Years from now, unlike whichever team wins tonight [OSU. or LSU -ed], the merits of their national championship will not be questioned.

I was a student athlete in high school (though not in college, I'll admit).  Classwork comes first.  If there was a conflict, I went to the teacher and worked something out.  Period.  Almost every teacher I know would be willing to give students other opportunities to make up work (or an exam) if they had a legitimate reason for missing class--and I think playoffs would qualify.  True, it might be tough, but isn't that what being a student athlete is about?

Obama, McCain win early N.H. towns

By Brendan Loy

In the tiny New Hampshire hamlet of Dixville Notch, whose voters are mostly registered Republicans or independents, a majority of voters decided to cast their ballots in the Democratic primary, and Barack Obama won in a landslide -- receiving 7 votes to John Edwards's 2 and Bill Richardson's 1. Hillary Clinton was shut out!

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, it was McCain 4, Romney 2, Giuliani 1. Duncan Hunter, the only candidate to campaign in the Notch, got no love from the locals, receiving zero votes.

No word yet from Hart's Location, the other New Hampshire town to do midnight voting.

P.S. As I did in 2004, when Wesley Clark was the big Dixville Notch winner (like Duncan Hunter, he was personally on hand for the big event; unlike Hunter, he actually got votes), I would like to dedicate the song "A Town in Old New Hampshire," as sung by the a capella group "4 Under Par," to Dixville Notch. Audio clip below; lyrics after the jump.

P.P.S. Interesting comparison: the last time both parties had contested primaries, in 2000, just six Dixville Notch residents voted in the Democratic primary (Bradley 4, Gore 2), while 23 voted in the Republican primary (Bush 12, McCain 10, Forbes 1). So while it's obviously unwise to try and extrapolate too much from this tiny town (especially in light of its spotty prediction record; you'll recall that Bradley and Bush both lost New Hampshire in 2000, and Clark lost in 2004), it does seem that Obama's crossover appeal to Republicans and independents was on display this morning in the Notch.

UPDATE: Obama and McCain are also the winners in Hart's Location! On the Dem side, the tally was Obama 9, Clinton 3, Edwards 1. On the GOP side, it was McCain 6, Huckabee 5 (!), Paul 4 (!!), Romney 1.

So, in sum, with 0.6% of the precincts reporting (New Hampshire has 301 precincts; 2 of them are in, albeit the two most sparsely populated), here are the current results:

Obama 16, Edwards 3, Clinton 3, Richardson 1.

McCain 10, Huckabee 5, Paul 4, Romney 3, Giuliani 1.

It's a landslide in the making for the comeback kids! :)

The polls in most New Hampshire towns open at 6:00 AM and close at either 7:00 or 8:00 PM.