College football's perfect storm

An odd analogy occurred to me yesterday, one that links two of my great passions: hurricanes and college football. The analogy is this: in a way, the 2007 college-football season reminds me of the 2005 hurricane season. Both featured a series of absolutely extraordinary events, one after another after another -- each of which seemed so improbable as to be almost impossible, and yet no matter how unlikely, they just kept happening. Each event would have been incredible by itself; in combination with all the others, they got to the point of defying all adjectival description. All you could really do is sit back and say, "Wow." At some point, you just had to concede that this season simply didn't follow the rules.

Seven named storms in June and July. A Category 4 and a Category 5 hurricane in July. Four Cat. 5s during the course of the season, including three of the six most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded -- all in the space of seven weeks. A monster hurricane threatening Houston three weeks after another monster hurricane destroyed New Orleans. A two-mile-wide pinhole eye rotating around the edge of a 40-mile-wide outer eye. A tropical storm making landfall in Spain. A cold-water hurricane that seemed to defy the laws of thermodynamics. A grand total of 28 storms, shattering the old record and pushing us into the Greek alphabet by mid-October. Two Greek-alphabet hurricanes, one of them a major hurricane. The season's final storm forming on December 30 and lasting until January 6.

Appalachian State winning at Michigan. Syracuse, a 37-point underdog, winning at Louisville. Stanford, a 41-point underdog, winning at USC. Navy beating Notre Dame. Thirteen Top 5 teams losing to unranked teams. The #1 and #2 teams both losing in the same weekend three separate times -- including both of the last two weekends of the regular season. Ohio State twice rising from #3 to #1 as a result of those double-upset weekends. LSU twice losing while ranked #1, yet still finishing the regular season ranked #2. West Virginia choking away a national-title shot at home, at night, against 4-7 Pitt, a 28-point underdog. UConn a co-champion in the Big East. Buffalo a co-champion in the MAC East. Kansas and Missouri, national-championship contenders. South Florida, briefly ranked #2 in the land. Notre Dame going 3-9. Illinois going to the Rose Bowl. Hawaii going to the BCS. Cal going from the nation's unofficial #1 team for a few hours to 6-6 seven weeks later. Oregon, similarly, going from 8-1 and #2 in the nation to 8-4 and unranked. Nebraska giving up 76 points to Kansas one week, dropping 73 on Kansas State the following week, and losing 65-51 in its finale. North Texas 49, Navy 45... at halftime. The Play II. A hyperactive coaching carousel, complete with SEC coach-swapping (kinky!). Les Miles going, in the space of 12 hours, from allegedly leaving LSU for Michigan to unexpectedly leading LSU to the BCS title game. An Ohio State team that many suspected of being fraudulent even when it was undefeated, losing at home to an unranked team in Week 11, falling to #7, rebounding to #5 with a win in Week 12, then rising all the way back to #1 by the end of Week 14 without playing a game. LSU climbing from #7 in the second-to-last BCS standings to #2 in the final standings -- and going to the championship game as a two-loss team. A sophomore, playing for a three-loss team, about to win the Heisman. And did I mention USC lost to Stanford? At the Coliseum? And that they'd be in the BCS title game if they'd won?

What a year. Truly unbelievable.

P.S. Also yesterday, I thought of an argument for why, even after USC-Stanford, Louisville-Syracuse, and WVU-Pitt, Appalachian State over Michigan is still the biggest upset of the year, and for that matter, of all time.

The argument goes like this: It is pretty much impossible to think of a situation in which Appalachian State over Michigan would ever not be an upset.

The same cannot be said of Stanford over USC (the Cardinal Farm Drunken Trees have been to 12 Rose Bowls, one as recently as 2000, and have beaten the Trojans 28 times in 88 meetings), Syracuse over Louisville (the Orange won or shared the Big East title in 1996, 1997, 1998 and 2004, have a .592 all-time record, and own a 4-2 series edge over the Cardinals), or Pittsburgh over West Virginia (Pitt went to the BCS in 2004, won a national championship as recently as 1976, and is 60-37-3 all-time in the Backyard Brawl, 8-15-2 since 1983). So while USC, Louisville and West Virginia were all huge favorites this year, and would be favorites most years in the modern era, it's possible to imagine a year wherein they're down, their opponent is up, and the usual favorite is the underdog. It's conceivable that the final scores of those games could, in some contexts, not be a jump-off-the-page, holy-s**t stunner.

But Michigan-Appy State? Um, no. Barring an epic collapse of the Wolverines program that would make this year's Notre Dame season look like a success, there is just no way that the #1 winningest team in college-football history would ever be an underdog, at least in public perception, to the Mountaineers of HOT! HOT! HOT! Appalachian State. I mean no disrespect to the Appy State squad, which is a fantastic Division I-AA program (they reached the semifinals of the I-AA playoffs over the weekend, BTW), but there is no conceivable way that a Division I-AA team, even a defending national champ, could ever not be considered an underdog going into the Big House to play Michigan. No. Freaking. Way.

And that's part of what made that particular upset seem so epic. It wasn't just an upset given the rankings and rosters this season. It was an upset for the ages, one that would have been just as shocking, if not moreso, to Biff Tannen if he'd seen it in Marty McFly's sports almanac back in 1955, and will almost certainly remain shocking to college-football fans in 2055 when they look back on this crazy season of aught-seven. Who knows, Stanford might be a power then, and Syracuse might be a title contender, so those scores might not seem so strange. But Appalachian State over Michigan? Appalachian State over Michigan?!? That's one that will stand the test of time.

Comments

[Medina]

Even more proof of global warming.

[Angrier and Angrier]

"Even more proof of global warming."

Promoted by the flatulence of over-sized college coaches like Charlie Weis and Ralph Friedgen.

[Scott]

Not to rub salt in your wounds or anything (if they exist) but if USC could have beat a very poor UCLA team last year and an absolutely horrible Stanford team (they lost to Notre Dame right?)we would be talking about a team in what, 5 straight national championship games? Not bad.

As for tOSU, they rightfully got ripped for not showing up for last years championship game (I believe they were completely out-coached and losing your best player on the first play of the game to a end zone celebration never helps)they are a solid defensive team with a great back that gets no attention and based on what I have seen from Les Miles, Tressel will not be out-coached this year. And tOSU has a HUGE chip on its shoulder from all the criticism and embarrassment from last year.

It will be honor to be crowned the first -ever mythical national champions.

Can anyone say playoffs?

[Jim B]

A minor nit to pick - Kentucky was ranked (either #7 or #17, don't recall) when they beat LSU. Otherwise an excellent comparsion.

[Brendan Loy]

Thanks for the nitpick, Jim. I had forgotten that. Just fixed it.

Scott, yes, I am acutely aware of that fact you mention about USC... ugh. F-in' Bruins & Drunken Trees.

[Brendan Loy]

P.S. That popping sound you hear is several LSU fans' heads exploding at your reference to "5 straight national championship games." ;)

[Kate]

Given the recent USC trend of suffering through humiliating losses to PAC-10 underdogs (Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford) at the colossal expense of another go at the MNC, who will next year's stunner be? I predict Washington State. '09 will be Arizona.