It's LSU

The coaches poll is out, and LSU is a solid #2, well ahead of Oklahoma, Georgia and Virginia Tech. I don't think there's any serious doubt now that it'll be tOSU vs. LSU in the Mythical National Championship game. Also: another first-place vote for Hawaii!

1. Ohio State (46) 1,469
2. LSU (11) 1,418
3. Oklahoma (2) 1,331
4. Georgia 1,277
5. Virginia Tech 1,242
6. USC 1,227
7. Missouri 1,104
8. Kansas 1,099
9. West Virginia 1,010
10. Hawaii (1) 994

UPDATE: Okay, so let's do some bowl projections. The title game is tOSU vs. LSU. The Rose Bowl gets first pick to replace the Buckeyes, but they can't pick Georgia without the Sugar Bowl's consent under Rule 3C of the Team-Selection Procedures. So you can forget about the folks in Pasadena eschewing Big Ten-Pac 10 tradition to set up a USC-Georgia matchup. They probably wouldn't have done that anyway, but even if they want to, they can't. So it's USC vs. Illinois in the Rose Bowl. (No other potential USC vs. Somebody Else matchup is sufficiently compelling to even make the Rose Bowl think about not selecting a Big Ten team.)

The Sugar Bowl will pick Georgia to replace LSU. Virginia Tech is automatically slotted into the Orange Bowl and Oklahoma into the Fiesta Bowl. Then each of those bowls picks from the pool of available teams in the following order: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar. West Virginia (as Big East champion) and Hawaii (as WAC champion in the Top 12) must be given bids. Contenders for the one remaining genuine at-large spot include Missouri, Kansas and Arizona State. Boston College or Clemson might be in the mix at #14, but no way are they getting picked. And for that matter, neither is Missouri. Basically, it's between Kansas and ASU for the final spot.

So anyway, who does the Orange Bowl pick to play Virginia Tech? The conventional wisdom has been that they choose West Virginia, but now the two-loss Mountaineers are damaged goods. Then again, so is everybody else! But Stewart Mandel thinks they'll pick Kansas, which would send West Virginia to Glendale and Hawaii to New Orleans. Alternatively, if the Orange Bowl picks WVU, the Fiesta Bowl can either set up Oklahoma vs. Kansas (a Big 12 game that never happened this season) or Oklahoma vs. Arizona State. I'm guessing it's the latter, but I could be wrong. Obviously it won't be Oklahoma vs. Missouri again. And obviously Hawaii is going to the Sugar Bowl to face Georgia no matter what.

So really, the Orange and Fiesta Bowls are the only question marks. The MNC, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl are set. As for the others, I'm going to buck the Mandel Thesis and assume the Orange Bowl picks WVU, in which case:

Mythical National Championship Game: Ohio State vs. LSU
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Illinois
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawaii
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State (or possibly Kansas)

P.S. I can't resist an I told you so. This is what I wrote immediately after LSU's loss to Arkansas last week:

[D]on't believe anyone who says "LSU's title hopes are dead." They're not. All the Tigers need is for West Virginia to lose (to UConn tomorrow or to Pitt next Saturday) and Oklahoma to win the Big 12, and they'll be right back in the hunt. ... [LSU would have] a more compelling case than any of the others would be able to make. So I think LSU is still effectively fourth in the BCS pecking order, behind the winner of tomorrow's Kansas-Missouri game (#1), West Virginia (#2) and Ohio State (#3).

I may do a whole post on this later, but the fact that so many pundits didn't see this coming -- to the point of declaring LSU's title hopes unequivocally dead as late as 8:11 PM yesterday, declaring the soon-to-be #2 team in the country's season "a disappointment" -- is just another example of the absolute failure of most football writers to have any foresight whatsoever when it comes to the BCS. I'm not saying they should have predicted this, certainly, but they should have recognized it as a possibility. You've got to be able to look past your preconceived notions (e.g., "West Virginia will crush Pitt") and past the current rankings (e.g., "LSU is #7, so they can't possibly reach #2") to think about what will occur if the unthinkable happens. And anyone who did that, realized that LSU was a very serious title contender even after the loss to Arkansas.

UPDATE: Rich Tellshow says "it looks almost certain that it will be OSU vs LSU."

UPDATE 2: Jerry Palm agrees, saying that to deny LSU the #2 spot, "the Harris voters would have to completely go off the wagon. ... [P]oll voters follow certain patterns. I'd say LSU is very safe."

Comments

[Jim Hu]

Probably hard for the Fiesta to bypass ASU, even if someone else is more deserving. I'm not as sure about Illinois - I hope you're wrong because
a) it makes the Big 10 rewarded even though it sucks problem worse and
b) it prevents the desired Zook v. Florida bowl possibilities.
But I suspect you're right.

[Brendan Loy]

Jim, who else would the Rose Bowl pick? They can't pick Georgia. They can't pick any of the conference champs except West Virginia. So their options are Kansas, Missouri, West Virginia, Illinois, Arizona State, Hawaii, and either Clemson or Boston College. The Jayhawks, Tigers and Mountaineers are all severely damaged goods after playing their way out of the title game by losing their final game. Clemson and BC hail from a conference that's arguably even worse than the Big Ten, or at least as bad, and BC is damaged goods too. ASU is obviously not an option. Hawaii clearly isn't happening. I actually think Illinois is the best choice, given the available choices, irrespective of the Big Ten-Pac 10 thing. The Big Ten-Pac 10 thing makes it a slam dunk.

[Texasyank]

I was home in the Valley over Thanksgiving, and all I heard was that the Fiesta Bowl committee presently has some sort of animus toward Arizona State, and that the powers of Phoenix and Glendale (remember, the game was moved across the Valley last year, from Tempe's Sun Devil Stadium to Glendale's University of Phoenix Stadium) were quietly (should last night's events take place) urging the committee to choose an out-of-town team, in order to boost hotel and restaurant dollars.

If the first part of the above is true, it's nuts, as the whole reason the Fiesta Bowl was created back in the day was to give Arizona State some national attention. (The Devils played in five of the first seven Fiesta Bowls, winning four.) No ASU, no Fiesta Bowl.

If the second part is true, it's a shame, for one would think that civic pride would prevail.

I don't know how true any of this is true. But I'll be keeping it in mind this evening.

[Marty West]

If this doesn't scream playoff system then I don't know what does...

[Jim Hu]

Brendan: In terms of best matchup. I'd like to see the Rose pick Missouri over Illinois. Mizzou has a better record and it would lead to lots of interesting bar arguments around St. Louis ;) But it isn't going to happen.

Texasyank: I hadn't heard that about the Fiesta and ASU. Ironic.

Marty: As others have pointed out, the Auburn situation was much more of a scream for a playoff than this year. This year screams more for going back to the pre-BCS system and just giving up on having a MNC.

I'm not a fan of any of the playoff proposals, but being sleep-deprived after staying up to watch the Hawaii game, some delusional part of my brain came up with a playoff system from Hell.

[Brendan Loy]

Problem #1 with your playoff system, Jim: there are only 11 Division 1-A conferences, not 12. :)

[Jim Hu]

Oops. Must have counted the indies as a conference. But hey, gotta have a way for ND to get in, right?

[Brendan Loy]

Heh. So if Notre Dame wins its "conference" consisting of Army, Navy, and Western Kentucky, they're in? Sounds about right. :)

[Jim Hu]

Hmm... If I was actually serious about this, I would have to have a way to deal with the indies, and since it's a crank proposal (i.e. I'd have to be a crank to try to do a serious version of it) I'd have to unwaveringly reject anything involving polls, computers, or committees.

Oh well. And I thought the pseudo-OT was the major sticking point.

[lex icon]

If you can lose at home to an unranked team after Thanksgiving and still play for the national championship, then there is no such thing as a national champion.

[David K.]

How would a playoff system make this any better? A bunch of 1-2 loss teams who are all about the same would beat up on each other and you'd end up with a random selection of a final two, the regular season largely having been worthless for many of them.

Why is it SO important we have a "definitive" national champion this year? The bottom line is that when it came down to it, NO one really distinguished themselves.

[Leanna Loomer]

I go with Illinois for the Rose Bowl.

Leanna Loomer
BFA, University of Illinois, 1971 (when I think they went 2 and 8)

[yea]

LSU is going to destroy Ohio State. the SEC and the Big Ten are not even comparable at this point. its honestly a joke that ohio state is going to the title game, oaklahoma, georgia, usc and maybe even vtech are better teams.

[uscroger]

neither LSU nor Ohio deserve to be considered for ther NC.

[Brendan Loy]

Okay. Then who does, uscroger?

Nobody in college football this year is actually that good.

Maybe we can get the 2004 Auburn team together and let them play the 2006 Boise State team for the title?

[Andrew]

Come on LSU fans, do you really want to be the first two-loss national champion? What an inherent asterisk. This is just absurd.

[uscroger]

Well, Andrew: That's a good question. If LSU deserves to be in the game after two losses, I don't see why SC should not get that chance either. SC lost late in the game which shows major improvement. That should count. SC lost also to the Ducks, which were mighty good at the time--but, only by a small margin. LSU losses and they only lose a few points and bumped down on the rankings. the same could be said for Oklahoma and others. A lot of the excuses used for usc are also justified through lsu and other teams, not to mention Hawaii. All I'm saying is that Ohio is not deserving and if LSU deserves a shot, then why not also USC or other 2 loss teams?

[David K.]

Sorry but I disagree uscroger, Ohio State won their conference and their only loss was by a TD to a 9-3 Illinois team that is ranked in the top 15. Of all the teams in the mix they have earned a shot. Had that loss occurred in the early season it wouldn't even be a question right now that they are number 1. Beyond that, i think its a toss up and I think Hawaii deserves (but won't get) the nod having gone unbeaten against the best schedule they could get. Its ridiculous to penalize them for the refusal of other teams to play them, its not like Hawaii is unwilling to play tough opponents.

As for LSU over USC, even as a trojan its tough to argue that a loss to stanford compares to either of LSU's overtime losses. I think USC would be able to beat LSU, Ohio State or any other team the way they are playing right now, but they didn't earn that chance with their loss to Stanford.

[Delscorcho]

This is the best year for a BCS boycott. Its not like good games will be missed with the slate of V-tech v. UWV (I'll just watch last years edition), Illinois (Goes ahead of a Missouri team that beat them) v. USC (lost to Stanford), Oklahoma (lost to Colorado) v. Kansas (Didn't OU already win the Big 12???), UGA v. Hawaii (poor dogs. They should be in the big dance, but instead get to babysit Hawaii), and LSU (no one who loses after thanksgiving to an unranked team at home deserves the MNC) v. OSU (who didn't play anyone).

I think I would rather have SC go to the Holiday bowl and play Texas.

[Mike's brother Matt]

Andrew: Minnesota, 1960, 8-2

[BK]

ASU to play Texas in the Holiday Bowl:

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/103255

[Texasyank]

Huh.

[lex icon]

Mike's brother Matt: You mean Minnesota 1960, 8-1. That second loss, in the Rose Bowl to Washington, came after they had already been declared national champs in the end of year, but pre-bowl final polls. After they lost the second game, the two remaining organizations that had yet to crown their champions selected Mississippi and Washington.

[uscroger]

Yikes, versus Illini at 4:30 pm on Jan 1

[Mike's brother Matt]

True enough, but still, they did get a national championship and lost 2 games. And it does prove the system used to be even stupider.

[gwh]

Nice to see the BCS can still be royally f&*ked up, and people don't have the convenient fallback of saying "it's all Notre Dame's fault" when a deserving team gets screwed.

[DUP]

GEAUX TIGERS!!!!!

[Sandy Underpants]

Ohio St. beat nobody, and that's really the point. Watching Herbstreit last night made me want to puke. "We know Ohio St. should be in, but what about the 2-loss teams..."-- Huh!!?!? Ohio St. is probably the worst conference champion of all conferences including the WAC. I can't believe they are going to the National Championship having BEAT no ranked team the entire season!!! LSU may not really deserve to go to the championship game, but tOSU doesn't belong in the top 8 of the nation. That being said Ohio St. will embarrass LSU in New Orleans and Les Miles will leave the next day for Michigan.