BCS CHAOS!!!!!

PITT WINS!!!

MISSOURI TRAILS BY 14!!!

CHAOS!!!!!!

Kirk Herbstreit says if Oklahoma wins, "the BCS is going to implode. This is their worst nightmare... This is as bad as it's ever gotten. Who are you going to put in there?"

P.S. Why not Hawaii? No, they aren't good enough to be #2 in the country. But neither is anybody else. Faced with a bunch of lackluster choices, why not choose the one that hasn't lost a game? I predict Hawaii will get some unexpected second-place votes in the polls if they win tonight. Not a lot, obviously not enough to even sniff the title game, but a few, because some voters will surely think the same thing.

It's a shame the mid-major conferences weren't able to produce a better undefeated team this season, because a squad like 2007 Boise State or 2005 Utah (i.e., with a more impressive schedule and a record of more consistent performances, especially on the road) actually might get serious consideration in this situation.

Anyway, the more I think about this, the more I realize it's completely and utterly unpredictable who will be #2 in the BCS. Not until the polls actually come out will anyone be able to say with any confidence what is going to happen. As I wrote in comments, "in this situation, it's particularly foolish to think of 'the voters' as if they are a Borg-like collective consciousness. If Missouri loses, there will be massive variations among everybody's Top 10s, and the result will be very unpredictable." You'll have the same team getting second-place votes from some people and sixth-place votes from others, and this will be true up and down the standings. So who the heck knows? It's going to be an absolute mess. And I love it!!

UPDATE: It's official: Missouri loses, 38-17. Chaos reigns!!!!!

UPDATE 2: An interesting poll result over at ESPN. Unscientific, of course, but:

If Ohio State moves up to No. 1, which other team most deserves to play in the title game?

LSU 30.9%
Georgia 19.5%
Hawaii 15.5%
USC 10.3%
Oklahoma 8.7%
Kansas 6.9%
Virginia Tech 6.9%
Missouri 0.7%
West Virginia 0.6%

Comments

[David K.]

If Hawaii wins out they deserve the shot, every other team above them has had their shot to be #1 or #2 let the Warrior have theirs.

[JD]

Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!

[Texasyank]

And one game freezes out SC:

LSU 21
TENN 14

Oh well. Unless one loses to fall into it (Cough2006) one can never think of the Rose Bowl as the consolation game.

[gahrie]

It's too early to rule out USC...it's all in the hands of the voters. This year it's going to come down to the final polls.

[uscroger]

ASU at it

[CT]

I've always admired Brendan's seemingly unwavering support to give the undefeated team, no matter the strength of the opponent's they've beaten, a shot at the MNC.

I'm not nearly so rabid about such, but even as sketchy as Hawai'i has looked this year at times, if they beat Washington they deserve a shot in New Orleans.

The teams of the BCS conferences have just imploded. If there's ever a year where an undefeated non-BCS team deserves a national title shot...well, it is this year.

I wish there was a chance of such.

[Brendan Loy]

I disagree, Texasyank. If LSU had lost, Virginia Tech would have been ahead of USC in the pecking order. And Oklahoma will jump the Trojans with a win tonight. USC was eliminated when OU beat Okie State last week. You just can't make a case for the Trojans based on their resume -- you have to use the "who's playing hot" method, and if you use that method, Georgia gets the nod.

[Brendan Loy]

Prediction: Hawaii will get some second-place votes in the polls if Missouri loses and they win tonight. Not a lot of votes, but some. At least a handful of voters out there will think like you and I, CT. No, the Warriors aren't good enough to be #2 in the country -- but neither is anybody else. So why not pick the team that hasn't lost?

[David K.]

Hey now, *I* am the one above who called for hawaii to have a shot not Brendan, a little credit :P

[gahrie]

I think you are actually talking to me Brendan.

The mistake you are making is that you are attempting to think logically about this. People are going to vote:

A) Their guts.

B) For the match up they want to see.

They don't want to see Ohio State-Oklahoma. ESPN is saying Ohio State-LSU. If you can make that argument, you can argue OSU-USC, or even, gasp LSU-USC. C'mon...you know that's the game everyone wants to see.

[David K.]

I wanna see LSU get pummeled by whoever plays them. They've won by the skin of their teeth too many times this season, their luck has to have run out by now.

[CT]

Sorry, David K :) I was commenting on your comment. Credit where it is due.

I think both Georgia and Kansas will be jumped. I feel pretty confident the voters will make sure of that.

Kirk seems to be ignoring Virginia Tech right now in his comments during the Big 12 championship. He seems to be favoring the Tigers in the national title game (which would sicken me as a Trojan). But I think it is going to be INCREDIBLY close between Va Tech and LSU.

I'd be stunned if the title game isn't Ohio State versus Va Tech/LSU.

[dcl]

playoff?

[David K.]

What would a playoff do? How would it help determine any better than the regular season? I've become less and less excited about a playoff system in football, there just isn't enough of a regular season to make it make sense.

[gahrie]

The regular season is the playoffs for college football.

Either go to a +1 system (bowl games and then one final game for the championship) or scrap the BCS and any pretense at objectivity and go back to the subjective polls.

[Jay Johnson]

Well, if it's a debate of VT vs LSU for the last spot, I think the head to head between the two teams should be taken into account. LSU beat the dogsnot out of the Hokies earlier this season (40-ish points, as I recall), so I can't see VT ahead of LSU in that spot.

I think, honestly, that it's got to be OSU and Georgia, because how do you punish the #3 and #4 teams who were idle? Of course, I realize that this placing UGA into a national title game is completely ridiculous, since they did not win their conference or their division in their conference.

So, in reality, who should play for the national title? IMHO, it's any D-I undefeated teams, if there are none or only one, then a conference champion with only one loss should be next in line.

I would preserve a preference for a conference champion over a one loss non-champion.

[Jim Hu]

Hmm... does it get more or less chaotic if Hawaii loses to UDub?

[Jay Johnson]

I don't think it gets any more or less anything other than clear that Hawaii isn't going to get a title shot.

[Jay Johnson]

Touchdown HUSKIES

[Brendan Loy]

Jay, it's not a question of "punishing" anybody. It is totally wrong and ridiculous, above all in the final week of the season, for voters to simply "bump" teams up or down based on the previous week's rankings, without making any effort to re-evaluate things. The voters have an obligation to rank teams based on some rational thought process, not just say, "Well, 1 and 2 lost, so 3 and 4 move up." Now, that's not to say you can't make a rational case for Georgia becoming #2, but that case certainly does not involve saying "how can you punish an idle team." The only proper question to ask is, "Who are the top two teams in the country?" Where they were ranked last week should have no bearing whatsoever.

[Brendan Loy]

Jim, I'd say Hawaii losing would make it less chaotic, in the sense that it would eliminate the "Hawaii should be in the title game" argument, without impacting any of the other arguments about the other contenders.

Admittedly, Hawaii is not a real contender, in a realistic sense. But there is a very good argument to be made that they should be, in light of the fact that nobody else has actually earned the #2 spot either. And that argument only adds to the chaos.

[Jay Johnson]

Perhaps "quotational punishment" isn't the best term, but in effect, that's the result. I'm pretty sure tOSU would be righteously pissed if the voters moved OU, USC and/or LSU ahead of them in the final polls. I'd suspect that there would be some impression that they are punished in the polls for not playing on the last weekend of the season.

The thing about it ultimately is that it's all a completely arbitrary ranking. No one has to use the same criteria for ranking the teams, so whether there's only one proper question matters not.

In reality, they'll all vote however the hell they want, so the end result will punish some and reward others.

[gahrie]

Washington....14-0!

[Jay Johnson]

TOUCHDOWN #2 HUSKIES

[gahrie]

Washington 21-0 the chaos continues!

TOUCHDOWN #3 HUSKIES

Yikes. They are a whuppin' the Warriors.

[B. Minich]

Enjoy the chaos my friends. Added to by a Pennsylvania team, no less. While I'm a Penn State fan, and don't like saying good things about Pitt (particularly football), hats off to them.

I am a bit disappointed for Mizzou, though. I was kinda hoping they would play for a title shot. An Ohio State/LSU title game is less cool for me, considering that those two programs have their fair share of title games (I mean, OSU last year?). I would love to see someone new get a shot, like a Mizzou.

Now someone asked what a playoff would settle in a season like this. Actually, I think a playoff is perfect for a season like this. Picking eight teams out of a mediocre heap is a lot more fair than picking two out of a mediocre heap. This would give more teams a real shot at the MNC this season that deserve it, instead of shutting out some teams that are probably deserving, but can't be included in a group of two.

[Andrew]

Far be it for me to willingly defend Kansas here, but if you remove the names and the associated tradition, is there really any difference between Kansas' resume and Ohio State's?

[David K.]

Ohio State won their conference?

[B. Minich]

Andrew: I agree with David. That's the big difference. Now if the Big 12 ran like the Big 11, Kansas would have a shot because they would be co-champions. Sometimes the conference championship game benefits a school, but it typically detracts. Kansas didn't win their division, a problem Ohio State doesn't even HAVE.

Conference crowns should all be decided the same way, even though this way is endearing because it is quaint.

[Andrew]

I'm not saying I am in favor of elevating teams that don't win their conference to the BCS title game, I'm just pointing out that there's little difference between the two resumes -- that OSU isn't any more deserving than, say, LSU, or Virginia Tech, or West Virinia, or Hawaii. Yet somehow they are the no-duh #1. Fine, but they have to be the weakest #1 team I've ever heard of.

[Mike's brother Matt]

Frankly, if Hawaii comes back here, I'll be angry with voters who put Hawaii #2. Either you look at how weak they've looked against bad teams and have them 10-ish, or you say they're undefeated, they're the only ones, put them #1. No sane person can argue Ohio State is #1 and Hawaii is #2. Ohio State has the faults of Hawaii (weak schedule, looking bad for most of it) combined with a loss. All they have over the Warriors is tradition, and anyone who judges this year's team off how the team was 25 years ago has no business voting in anything more important than American Idol.

[David K.]

Frankly if Hawaii comes back its because the refs blew a huge call on calling that an illegal forward pass and shifting the momentum to Hawaii at a critical time. Also, DC for the Huskies Baer needs to be fired yesterday.

[Mike's brother Matt]

That was horrible call against Washington. Though I approve of the new trend of announcers calling out the ref for botching calls. (See Pitt/Wva)

[Brendan Loy]

Unfortunately, officials blowing huge calls has been a theme today. In particular, the refs who works that Pitt-WVU really and truly ought to be fired. Not reprimanded, not suspended, fired. There's no excuse for that degree of bullshit. I don't think I've ever witnessed such a horrendous display of officiating, from the bogus personal foul to the bogus holding calls to the bogus excessive celebration call. Absolutely disgusting. I have no idea whether they were deliberately trying to help WVU for the sake of the conference -- I presume not -- but their utter incompetence, if that's all it was, certainly created that impression.

Anyway, in this case, I'm not sure it's fair to say that if Hawaii wins (and they just took the lead with 44 seconds left), "it's because" of that call; it wasn't exactly guaranteed that UW was going to score there, or that even if they had, Hawaii wouldn't have answered. However, I definitely can't blame you for being frustrated. It was a close call, but it was wrong. I presume it wasn't reviewable, since it wasn't reviewed, but if so, that's a dumb rule; it should be reviewable. Lots of stuff should be reviewable, at least upon a coach's challenge, that isn't, IMHO. But that's a whole 'nother post for another day. The bigger issue is that officials should get things right more often, or at least get things blatantly and obviously wrong less often.

[Brendan Loy]

Matt, I totally agree with you about announcers calling out the refs. It's very refreshing.

[David K.]

I want to point out that its not that Hawaii did not earn a win in this game, Brennan is amazing and deserves the Heisman, but at that point in the game that call was a huge factor in changing how things were going. Its frustrating to lose such a close game, especially when we could have won, but i think the biggest failure is our defense and our DC needs to be gone now. If Willingham does not fire him, I will move towards the fire Willingham camp.

Congrats to Hawaii though, i'll be rooting for them in whatever game they play in. Hopefully its crushing the arrogant Les Miles in the Sugar Bowl.

[Mike's brother Matt]

I think today also lends support to the idea that the NCAA should be in charge of hiring officials. There's just far too much incentive for a conference to favor a presumptive BCS bid/National Championship bid.

[Brendan Loy]

Yeah, I agree, Matt. Again, I assume, in the absence of direct evidence to the contrary, that the refs in Pitt/WVU were not being deliberately biased, but nevertheless, their shameful incompetence did create the appearance of impropriety for the very reason you say, and that is a problem in and of itself.

The NCAA should take over hiring officials and should issue some clear directives about things like "excessive celebration" and "personal foul" calls for bogus nonsense. They really need to get this crap under control.