Irish Trojan in Tennessee

Biden hoping for Iowa surprise

By Brendan Loy

Joementum, the sequel?

P.S. I suppose I shouldn't say "the sequel," considering that Joementum I was a bit of a dud. But hey, maybe Biden can get a three-way split decision for third place! ;)

Strickland still leads contest

By Brendan Loy

Alabama's win over Colorado in the Independence Bowl kept Hal Strickland in sole possession of the Irish Trojan Bowl Pick 'em Contest lead. Things could change a lot tomorrow, though, with six bowl games worth two points apiece. Strickland picked Air Force, Georgia Tech, South Florida, Kentucky, Clemson and Oklahoma State. Everyone else's picks can be viewed here and here.

Current standings here and after the jump.

A five-way race for president?

By Brendan Loy

The New York Times is reporting that Mayor Michael Bloomberg "is growing increasingly enchanted with the idea of launching an independent presidential bid, and his aides are aggressively laying the groundwork for him to run."

I was thinking about this yesterday, and depending on how things play out in the major-party nomination battles, I think we could see as many as five high-profile presidential tickets battling it out in November. If Huckabee -- who is perceived as soft on illegal immigration -- wins the GOP nomination, I think Lou Dobbs jumps into the race for sure. Meanwhile, Huckabee's reputation for having a Carteresque foreign policy could open the door for a McCain independent candidacy... maybe a McCain-Lieberman ticket.

And if Bloomberg is pondering a presidential bid now, imagine how he'll feel if the other options are the theocrat Huckabee, the nativist Dobbs, the warmongerers McCain and Lieberman, and... the populist crusader Edwards, perhaps? Bloomberg may be a nanny-stater, but surely he's got enough of the businessman left in him to chafe at Johnny Boy's extreme anti-corporate rhetoric. Moreover, an Edwards (or Obama) candidacy -- as opposed to Hillary -- would also beef up the rationale for a McCain-Lieberman bid, since at that point, all of the other options (Huckabee, Edwards/Obama, Dobbs, Bloomberg) would arguably not exactly inspire a great deal of confidence on the foreign-policy front.

So, how would such a race unfold? Nationally, I imagine that Republicans would be hopelessly divided among Huckabee, Dobbs and McCain, while Democrats would rally around Edwards to a much greater extent. Johnny Boy would very likely win a popular plurality nationwide -- but of course, that doesn't matter. What matters is the Electoral College, and such a five-way race would seriously open the possibility of an Electoral College deadlock. But of course, that would require at least three of the five to actually win some states, and Edwards to be held below 270. I imagine Huckabee would win some southern and western states, and it's conceivable that Dobbs could pick up a couple of southwestern states.

The wild cards would be McCain and Bloomberg. If Mayor Mike could carry New York, and maybe a couple more northeastern states, that in itself might be enough to deadlock the Electoral College, combined with Huckabee's support in the Bible Belt. But what is Bloomberg's ideological base, exactly? Although nominally a Republican, he's functionally a Democrat, and he'd have to pull significant support from centrist Dems. The problem is that, as I said, I imagine the Dems would rally around Edwards, both out of fear of Huckabee and out of an overwhelming desire to take back the White House after eight years of Bush-Cheney. Bloomberg would be painted as a potential Nader, and I suspect his candidacy would fade significantly in this environment.

The other possibility is that McCain could draw broad enough support from the center-left and center-right to pick off a few states. It's hard to predict whether that would happen -- and whether, if it did, it would take away so much from Huckabee that his southern strategy would fall apart. If the GOP splits badly enough, Edwards could even win pluralities in the Bible Belt.

Bottom line, as long as Edwards successfully moves to the center and tones down the angry populism a notch, I imagine he would probably win an electoral majority, possibly in a landslide (though many of his individual state margins would be sub-40% pluralities). But it would be an incredibly unpredictable campaign dynamic, and man, it'd be fun to watch.

P.S. Oh yeah, I almost forgot: Ron Paul on the Libertarian line could draw Nader-like numbers.

P.P.S. If the Electoral College does deadlock, of course, the House of Representatives would elect the president, choosing from among the top three E.C. vote-getters. And the House votes not by individual member, but by state delegation. By my count, based on Wikipedia, the Democrats currently have a majority in 24 state delegations to the Republicans' 22, with four delegations deadlocked. So neither party has a majority. That's a very volatile balance, though; many states could flip with just one seat changing hands, and it's the new House that would pick the president, if it came down to that.

Proto-Pablo fizzles

By Brendan Loy

So much for the 2007 hurricane season ending with -- or the 2008 season beginning with -- an unexpected subtropical storm. Invest 95L, the storm that could have become either Pablo or Arthur, has fizzled.

Quinn takes first NFL snaps

By Brendan Loy

Brady Quinn made his NFL debut today. (Hat tip: Scott F.)

Now Quinn's Cleveland Browns, who beat the 49ers 20-7, are waiting and hoping the Colts beat the Titans, thus securing the Browns a playoff berth in place of Vince Young and LenDale White's Titans.

Fair use, anyone?

By Brendan Loy

The RIAA, apparently determined to make itself into a self-caricature, is now arguing in court that it's illegal to copy CDs you legally bought onto your computer for your own personal use.

P.S. Moe Lane: "I guess that I won't be buying that iPod, then." (Hat tip: InstaPundit.)

Two years ago today...

By Brendan Loy

Wedding photos here. Some more video highlights are here and here. And after the jump, in case anyone's interested (and has an hour-and-a-half to kill), I've posted our full wedding video -- all 1 hour, 26 minutes of it.