Will Israel bomb Iran?

The Times of London reports:

A claim by President Ahmadinejad that Iran has 3,000 working uranium-enriching centrifuges sent a tremor across the world yesterday amid fears that Israel would respond by bombing the country’s nuclear facilities.

Military sources in Washington said that the existence of such a large number could be a “tipping point”, triggering an Israeli air strike. The Pentagon is reluctant to take military action against Iran, but officials say that Israel is a “different matter”. Amid the international uproar, British MPs who were to have toured the nuclear facility were backing out of their Iran trip.

Even before President Ahmadinejad’s announcement, a US defence official told The Times yesterday: “Israel could do something when they get to around 3,000 working centrifuges. The Pentagon is minded to wait a little longer.” US experts say 3,000 machines running for long periods could make enough enriched uranium for an atomic bomb within a year.

Somebody get Les Miles over there, stat.

Comments

[Angrier and Angrier]

While I'm not keen on anyone bombing Iran, better it be Israel than us at this time.

[JO]

I'm with A&A on this one. Although, we'll still be blamed if they do bomb them.

[kg2v]

Maybe once the F-15s are cleared to fly again - all F-15s worldwide are grounded right now except for "Mission crital" use

[Marty West]

kg2v -

F15s are tactical fighters. Not bombers.

[Condor]

I don't know if I advocate bombing Iran or not, but it's amazing to me that folks in the states seem totally oblivious to the fact that if Iran is bombed, Iran will certainly take action against the United States in some way. Now I'm not talking about by bombing a ship in the gulf or something like that. I'm talking about the fact that Iran can totally destabilize Iraq at their whim, and do it somewhat covertly to boot. Most violence in Iraq is Sunni. But you can be damn sure that if the US bombed a Shiite state, the shiite majority in Iraq would not take that lightly. If you think that Iraq is bad now, you can imagine what it would be like if real Shia violence were happening on top of that. So, if you're going to bomb Iran, bomb Iran, but for God's sake learn something from what happened with the Iraq invasion and prepare for the inevitable consequences.

[blackberry]

What if iran is goading israel into a strike so as to have pretense to aggress against western elements in the middle east? Iran could use a nuke site attack to start shelling israel and assist the arab state interests in taking israel back. Either the us would not get involved (having iraq fever) or would be so distracted with israel that iran could take sections of a weakened iraq and begin gobbling up oil fields all over that part of the middle east. The un will do nothing because iran will claim its on 9/11 type mandate to defend itself from western agression. Why else would iran so brazenly claim active nuke programs but to provoke a precision attack on a strawman facility.

[Joe Mama]

I don't know if I advocate bombing Iran or not, but it's amazing to me that folks in the states seem totally oblivious to the fact that if Iran is bombed, Iran will certainly take action against the United States in some way.

It's not amazing to me, since so many folks in the states seem totally oblivious to the fact that Iran has already been taking action against the United States in Iraq for some time now.

Now I'm not talking about by bombing a ship in the gulf or something like that. I'm talking about the fact that Iran can totally destabilize Iraq at their whim, and do it somewhat covertly to boot.

They've already been trying to destabilize Iraq "somewhat covertly" for some time now. Where do you think all those IEDs come from? Iran has also been somewhat less covert in their actions (see the capture of British sailors earlier this year).

Most violence in Iraq is Sunni. But you can be damn sure that if the US bombed a Shiite state, the shiite majority in Iraq would not take that lightly. If you think that Iraq is bad now, you can imagine what it would be like if real Shia violence were happening on top of that.

Actually, the Shia militias have been responsible for more than their fair share of violence in Iraq since the invasion -- sometimes in retaliation, sometimes unprovoked. Ever heard of Muqtada al-Sadr?

So, if you're going to bomb Iran, bomb Iran, but for God's sake learn something from what happened with the Iraq invasion and prepare for the inevitable consequences.

Unless we're planning on overthrowing the Iranian regime and occupying that country afterwards, I don't think "what happened with Iraq" is much of a learning tool in this instance. And so far the only action that's been seriously talked about re Iran is aerial bombing.

[Aaron]

Seems to me that right now the most important* consideration in any proposed attack on Iran is the effect it might have on the situation in Pakistan, currently the most dangerous in the world.

Marty, you have forgotten the F-15E: a long range strike fighter. Israel has a couple dozen of them under the designation F-15I, and they would most certainly be called upon for the most difficult missions in any hypothetical Israeli attack.

On the other hand, I don't expect the Israelis would let the current F-15 grounding stop them if they decided to attack.

*important, as in: first on a very long list.

[Marty West]

Israel also has the F-22 Raptor...so they would use that over an F-15 I would imagine.

Regardless of what plane or method Israel (or the U.S.) chooses to bomb Iran...I still feel it is a terrible idea.

[Aaron]

Israel also has the F-22 Raptor

Nope. Now you're 0 for 2.

I still feel it is a terrible idea.

Ah, much better. I agree wholeheartedly.

[yea]

you people act as if israel and the us are really separate entities. silly kids.

[Condor]

"Ever heard of Muqtada al-Sadr?"

Al-Sadr is the prime example for the case I'm making. The battle with him was the most difficult single battle of the war. It ended not with the US winning, but in a truce. These would be the kind of fights (not just little-bitch Sunni militias) that the US would have on their hands after a bombing of Iran. Worrying about the Iranian guard handing out IEDs is not a very big problem compared to this.
Like I said, if you have to bomb Iran, then learn from Iraq and plan for the aftermath this time.

[kg2v]

Marty,
The F-15I is one of Israel's bomb platform - just like the F-15E (The Mud Hen) is one of the heavier bombers out there. Their F-16s would probably be included in any package, but you can darn well bet they would not go on that mission without the F-15I flying cover, if not also flying air to Mud

Yes - Israel HAS talked about ordering F-22s - but I don't think they have, and even if they have, they have NOT been delivered yet

[Andrew]

Israel has the F-16 and the F-15, but not the F-18 (more suited to carrier/naval operations) or the F-22. It will be some time before the U.S. allows the F-22 technology to go to other countries, even in a degraded version.

Even if Israel had an F-22, I'm not sure it'd be the first choice for a strike against Iranian nuke facilities. The F-22 is more of a force multiplier due to its stealth, radar, and high altitude capabilities. This allows the Air Force to insert a handful of F-22 into squadrons of F-15s or F-16s and give the older planes a nearly insurmountable tactical edge in air-to-air combat. The F-22 was not originally designed for air-to-ground roles, but is now equipped for that. The Israelis are extremely experienced and proficient with their F-16s and F-15s, so I'd expect them to use those planes even if the F-22 was an option.

[Marty West]

I stand corrected...

If only they hadn't retired the F-14...then Maverick and Goose could settle this thing...then play volleyball shirtless and ride motorcycles.

[Aaron]

At the risk of dragging this thread even further toward the realm of the military hardware geekathon, I'll go ahead and add that foreign sales of the F-22 are currently banned by law. The House passed a bill last year (I think) which would have lifted the ban, but the Senate rejected it. (appropriately, in my opinion) Israel and a number of other countries are also interested in the F-35 when it starts coming off the assembly lines.

Speaking of the F-22, I'm becoming more and more convinced the we ought to get rid of the AirForce