This year's Boise State: Boise State?

NOTE: An earlier version of this post was based on an incorrect recollection of the BCS qualification rules; I was thinking the Top 14 is the cutoff for automatic at-large qualification by a non-BCS team, but it's actually the Top 12, which changes things significantly. I've altered the post accordingly.

Looking at this week's BCS standings, I notice something very interesting: while Hawaii (8-0), ranked #14 last week, has slipped to #16 (leapfrogged by Texas and Florida), Boise State (8-1) has risen from #22 to #20, thanks to losses by Alabama and Kentucky (previously #17 and #18, respectively).

Hawaii's schedule is so weak -- though no fault of their own, but rather, due to the utter wimpiness of big-time programs who refused to play them despite being offered as much as $500,000 to do so -- that the Warriors don't even register in the computers at the moment. (That is to say, they're outside of the Top 25 in every single computer, so their computer rating for BCS purposes is a big fat .000.) That may change if they win their last four games, including the November 23 showdown with Boise State, but their computer profile will certainly remain very weak. However, I do believe they'll finish in the Top 12 if they win out, and thus get invited automatically to a BCS bowl.

But what about Boise State? If the Broncos take care of business against the absolutely wretched opponents they face the next two weeks (Utah State and Idaho, a combined 1-18), and then beat Hawaii on the 23rd to earn the WAC championship, could last year's Cinderella become this year's big surprise -- the first one-loss team from a non-BCS conference to earn a trip to a BCS bowl?

I think it's entirely possible. Of course, the weakness of their next two opponents will hurt Boise's computer profile -- but then the strength of their final opponent (Hawaii) will boost it. And attrition among higher-ranked teams will inevitably keep their poll ranking moving up over the next four weeks, if they just keep winning. A bunch of teams currently ranked above them are destined to lose sooner or later: for example, only one of the ACC trio Boston College, Virginia Tech and Virginia can make it to the finish line unscathed. Same goes for USC and Arizona State from the Pac-10, Auburn and Georgia from the SEC, and West Virginia and UConn from the Big East: somebody's gotta lose those games, and with all teams involved being ranked #9 or lower, and the pollsters' tendency to punish teams severely for late losses, there's a pretty good chance the losers will fall behind Boise State. Michigan, too, will fall behind the Broncos if they lose to Ohio State. And of course, Boise can take care of #16 Hawaii itself.

Adding it up, I count between five and seven spots that Boise is likely to climb by pure attrition before season's end, if they win out. That would get them to between #13 and #15: not quite good enough, but close. Add in the likelihood of an extra boost from pollsters if the Broncos pull off what would be a high-profile, nationally televised win over Hawaii, and they'd be even closer. Throw in a couple of upsets -- Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks over Florida, anyone? How about Texas Tech and/or A&M over Texas? -- and the Broncos could be in business.

Alternatively, Boise could take advantage of the rule that gives a non-BCS conference champion an automatic bid if they're ranked between #13 and #16 and ahead a BCS conference champ. Scenarios to consider here: UConn, currently #13, loses one of its next three games, but still wins the Big East by beating West Virginia. Michigan, currently #12, loses at Wisconsin, but still wins the Big Ten by beating Ohio State. Florida, Georgia and Tennessee each lose a game, so the Vols, currently #23, go to the SEC title game with an 8-4 overall record... and win. If any of those things were to happen, Boise State would probably be all set, again assuming they win out.

All things considered, I give Boise State a 50/50 chance of making a BCS bowl -- despite that season-opening loss to Washington -- if they win out.

Once upon a time, I thought the Hawaii-Boise State game in three weeks would be "an absolutely HUGE game, with not just WAC title implications, but BCS implications" for both teams. When the Broncos lost to the Huskies on September 8, it looked like that dream was doomed. But maybe not! Go Broncos & Warriors! Beat various & sundry midgets! Bust the BCS! Again! :)

P.S. ESPN's Brad Edwards (subscription required), of "Road to the BCS," is a bit less bullish than me. He thinks Boise State's only realistic hope is the finishing-ahead-of-a-BCS-conference-champ route: "BSU isn't likely to reach the top 12 (needed for an automatic at-large bid), but top 16 is a possibility, which could get them into a major bowl if the champion of an automatic-bid conference (most likely the ACC) is ranked lower."

I disagree with his "most likely the ACC" comment; I think the Big East is the most likely, at least in terms of the ease of concocting the scenario. UConn would certainly plummet with a loss -- the Huskies' national profile is so low that their high ranking is incredibly tenuous -- and wouldn't gain back that much ground by beating West Virginia (a result which would do more to discredit WVU in the pollsters' eyes than to boost UConn's cred). But perhaps Edwards just thinks it's really unlikely UConn beats WVU. In any event, the ACC certainly could fit the bill as well. The best scenario would be if Virginia loses to Miami but then beats Virginia Tech and wins the title game. Alternatively, BC could beat Clemson, lose to Miami, and then win the title game. Those are, I think, the most likely scenarios where the ACC champ could finish below Boise.

Comments

I still can't believe Boise State lost to Washington. What a fluke. If they played again, it would likely be a drubbing. Funny how much of a role timing plays in the schedule. Everyone knows you have to get Willingham's teams late in the season, after they have quit on him.

[Brendan Loy]

Hey now, Washington could still make it to a bowl game. All they have to do is win at Oregon State, at home against Cal and Wazzu, and at Hawaii. Cake! :)

On second thought, perhaps I spoke too soon. You know, maybe these guys will rally around Ty and save his job for one more season. I hope so, because it will set up an interesting game (from a purely media circus standpoint, as I expect Washington to be horrible and ND to be middling) next season against the Irish.

[C. Bassett]

Boise State has certainly improved a lot since losing to Washington. The offense, at least. The defense has been a little iffy from game to game since holding Washington scoreless in the second half(though to be fair to the defense, they've only really been off in two games this season, including the ridiculousness that took place against Nevada). I'd love to see BSU play Washington again this season, but another test against the PAC-10 has to wait until next year's season opener in- uh oh- Autzen Stadium.

Boise State in the BCS has been a hot topic the last couple weeks locally, and it's starting to pick up nationally. Most agree that finishing ahead of the ACC is their best shot. For me, it's still so much of an uphill climb that I hate to even think about it at this point. Hawaii plays such a big role in both their own and Boise State's BCS hopes, with them absolutely having to be undefeated when they play Boise State. Beating even a 1 loss Hawaii wouldn't give Boise State the boost they need in that final week.

If BC loses again, I think Boise will slip ahead of them in the rankings Then if BC beats Va. Tech in the Championship game, that could be an in for Boise.

[Brendan]

I agree that a loss would move BC behind Boise, but I think they would probably move back ahead of Boise if they win the ACC title game, especially if they do it by avenging their one loss of the season, against a well-respected Virginia Tech team that only has two losses.

I think Boise's best bet is for Virginia to lose another game and yet win the ACC title, which could happen, provided the loss isn't against Virginia Tech. The Cavs are already ranked just barely ahead of Boise (#19), so they'd fall WAY behind the Broncos with a loss, and probably wouldn't be able to gain that ground back with a win, especially if it's over a weakened opponent (e.g. if Boston College loses another game but still makes it to the ACC title game).

Also, don't sleep on the scenario of UConn losing to Cincinnati this weekend, then beating Syracuse and West Virginia to win the Big East crown. Or, even better, UConn could beat Cincy and Syracuse and then lose to West Virginia in the Huskies' last game of the season -- but WVU loes to Louisville or Cincy or Pitt, in which case UConn is still the conference champ at 7-1 despite losing to 6-2 WVU. The Huskies might not even finish in the Top 25 in that scenario, certainly not Top 20, yet they'd be BCS-bound.

[Brendan]

The perfect BCS clusterf***!!

* UConn wins the Big East.
* Virginia wins the ACC.
* The Boise State-Hawaii winner qualifies for an automatic at-large berth.
* Georgia and Tennessee win out. LSU beats the Vols in the SEC title game.
* Kansas wins out and passes LSU for #2 in the BCS.
* Texas wins out.
* Whoever wins the USC-ASU game wins out.

Title game: Ohio State vs. Kansas
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Texas
Orange Bowl: Virginia vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: USC/ASU vs. Boise State/Hawaii
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. UConn

Hahahahaha. WORST. RATINGS. EVER.

And angry LSU, bumped out of the #2 spot at the last minute, gets to "prove itself" and make a case for an AP championship by beating... UConn. LOL.

Brendan,

If BC loses again, then beats Va Tech in the championship game, how would that be "avenging their one loss of the season, against a well respected Va. Tech..."

BC would be 11-2, with losses to FSU and either MD, Clemson, or Miami.

[Brendan]

Er... right. Boston College lost to Florida State, not Virginia Tech. They beat Virginia Tech the previous week, when everyone thought they would lose. I'm an idiot.

But c'mon, you can't expect me to retain information about what happened in the ACC three days ago... I mean, that's ridiculous... the ACC is so boring, I try to forget the games while they're still in progress...

:)

Anyway, yeah, okay, take out the "avenging their one loss of the season" part of what I said. The rest is still right. My basic point was that BC beating two-loss Virginia Tech (for the second time!) would be considered a "quality win" and would, I think, boost them back ahead of Boise State. Tthey're #9 now, so I'm thinking they'd probably only fall into the #16-20 range with a loss... and between attrition and a win over VT, they could move right back up pretty easily, I think.

Virginia and UConn, on the other hand...

[Andrew]

If both Kansas and Texas win out, either one of them picks up a loss in the Big 12 championship game (assuming Oklahoma loses another game), or you're assuming Oklahoma finishes 11-2 (vs. Texas at 10-2), but Texas gets selected for the BCS instead of Oklahoma. I honestly don't know if the Rose Bowl would select Texas over Oklahoma in that scenario -- I can see arguments going either way.

[Andrew]

Also, the Rose Bowl would get first dibs with the loss of Ohio State, and it's not out of the question that they'd select an SEC team like Georgia (Pac-10 vs. SEC bragging rights). Also, if the Orange Bowl takes Virginia as its ACC tie-in instead of UConn as its Big East tie-in, perhaps an 11-1 UConn looks more attractive to the Rose Bowl because of the New York/New England media market.

Bottom line: The Rose Bowl taking Texas in your scenario is very far from a sure thing.

[Brendan Loy]

There is no longer a Big East tie-in to the Orange Bowl. The Orange Bowl is tied in only to the ACC. The Big East champion is a free floater, and can land anywhere, like a glorified at-large team.

Also, if the Rose Bowl picks UConn, I will eat my own arm.

(Now, if the BE champion is West Virginia, that's another story.)