Missouri dominating Kansas

So far, it's all Chase Daniel & co., and Kirk Herbstreit has already described Kansas as being "exposed." Maybe those cupcakes didn't serve their purpose? Anyway, they're just starting the second half, and it's 14-0 Mizzou.

Earlier, West Virginia gave UConn a good old-fashioned whoopin', 66-21. D'oh! So now WVU is a win over Pitt away from the BCS title game. Now, Pitt isn't very good, but do you think they'll be a little motivated to play their "Backyard Brawl" rivals with a chance to derail their title hopes? Remember what happened to USC against UCLA last year, Mountaineers, and be careful: that could be you. (In which case, hello, Ohio State!)

Also, fUCLA shut out Oregon, which means that if they now turn around and lose to USC next week, the Trojans will be Rose Bowl-bound. Thanks, Bruins!! ... Oregon's loss is also good news for Hawaii, as the Ducks will presumably join Texas in dropping behind the Warriors in the BCS standings. (And frankly, if Kansas keeps looking this bad, they might take enough of a plunge in the polls to fall behind Hawaii as well, especially given the weakness of Kansas's prior schedule, which is almost Hawaii-esque.)

Speaking of USC, wins by Georgia and Oklahoma mean the Trojans' slim national-title hopes are probably dashed. I don't think a two-loss USC would finish ahead of the two-loss Bulldogs or Sooners.

P.S. With regard to Hawaii, assuming Kansas stays ahead of them, I think the two major questions are: 1) will Arizona State stay ahead of them? And 2) will Tennessee leapfrog them? If the answer is "no" to both, I see the Warriors at #12 next week, going into their finale against Washington (unless Hawaii can leapfrog someone based on their performance against Boise State).

Meanwhile, the best hopes for a conference champion to finish ahead of, if the Warriors need it (i.e., if they're between #13 and #16), now come from the Pac-10 (if USC loses to UCLA, triggering bizarre tiebreakers extraordinaire) and, of all places, the SEC (if Tennessee beats LSU and doesn't leapfrog Hawaii). The Big 12 and ACC are now guaranteed to have their champions finish in the Top 14, along with the Big Ten and almost certainly the Big East (even if they lose to Pitt, I don't think West Virginia would fall that far).

UPDATE: Kansas rallied valiantly from a 28-7 third-quarter deficit, but Missouri won 36-28. So it's now Missouri and West Virginia in the driver's seat for the national-championship game, with Ohio State waiting in the wings if either of them falter next week, and mass chaos if both falter. (Ohio State vs. ... Georgia? LSU? Oklahoma? USC? Boston College? Virginia Tech? Kansas?? Hawaii???)

Comments

[Texasyank]

Kansas, by losing, may yet prosper via the "Nebraska Loophole."

2001: last regular-season game of the season, Thanksgiving Friday, undefeated #2 Nebraska loses to Colorado and falls out of the Big 12 Championship game.

With undefeated, #1 Miami waiting in the wings, new presumptive #2 Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State. Then new presumptive #2 Tennessee loses.

The following weekend, in the Big 12 Championship game, new actual #2 Texas loses to Colorado. With Colorado eliminated from consideration with two losses, and with one-loss Oregon oddly never given much credit, the second slot in the title game goes to . . .

Nebraska. Who gets clobbered by Miami, by the way, but that's not really the point.

People talk about Ohio State being "in the clubhouse with one loss." Well, that's the same status for Kansas. In the clubhouse with one loss, able to sit and watch Mizzou and West Virginia beat their brains out and maybe hand them a bid to New Orleans.

Had they lost (badly, say) to Oklahoma last week, Kansas may have been surpassed by a two-losser (LSU?) dominating in its conference championship. As it is, by losing a week earlier than all the conference championships, end-of-year showdowns and so forth, Kansas may have done itself a favor in the long run.

This year is so screwy that, as in 2001, keeping your team off the field may be the best strategy.

[Brendan]

I don't think it'll work out that way for Kansas. It wouldn't have for Nebraska if it had been up to the voters, as it almost is now (with 2/3 of the BCS being the polls); the Cornhuskers only got in thanks to the old computer-heavy formula. Moreover, given that Kansas had played nobody all year and was suspected of being fraudulent all along, I think they will plummet in the polls, and will finish behind any two-loss teams that can state their case next week. Tennessee's 4OT win devastates the SEC's ability to have a two-loss team do that (since Georgia is out of the mix, and LSU beating Tennessee won't be as much of a "statement"), but Oklahoma is very much in the mix, and if the pollsters don't like them, how about the ACC title-game combatants, and how about idle Georgia, and how about USC? I just don't see it happening for Kansas.

[Brendan]

P.S. In the final polls that year, it was #1 Miami, #2 Oregon, #3 Colorado, #4 Nebraska. But the BCS formula favored the Huskers. That wouldn't be the case with Kansas, because of the increased weighting of the polls and also because I'm guessing the computers won't care for Kansas in the morning -- they liked the Jayhawks OK as long as they were undefeated, but now that they have a loss, the weak schedule should become a major liability.

If West Virginia loses to Pitt, I think Missouri-Oklahoma becomes effectively a national semifinal, unless perhaps LSU puts on a really impressive show against Tennessee. If it were LSU-Georgia, it would be a much more interesting discussion. It may be pretty interesting anyway, though, because the computers aren't too hot on Oklahoma. Regardless, despite what I wrote in the post, I don't think USC, Virginia Tech, BC, etc., are really in the picture. It'll be Ohio State vs. either Oklahoma or an SEC team (LSU or Georgia) if Missouri and WVU both lose.

[kcatnd]

Good summary of 2001, Texasyank. As a Nebraska fan (I guess I'm an Irish Husker or something), I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw every domino in that chaos theory fall, allowing the Huskers a bizarre and admittedly undeserved shot at Miami.

Anything is still possible this year. Especially this year. It's like that Seinfeld episode in which George starts doing the exact opposite of what he would normally do and finds that it works out. I'm going to start assuming the opposite of conventional wisdom for College Football 2007. Hawaii-Kansas for the national title!

[Andrew]

Mizzou looked very impressive tonight; at almost every position, they looked bigger and stronger than Kansas (neither team seemed particularly fast). I can almost chastise myself for not having watched them play more often this season: their TE-heavy version of the spread option is quite entertaining and looks dominant against smaller defenses. I still think Oklahoma has to be favored down in San Antonio, but it's awfully tough to beat the same team twice in one season, and I think Mizzou has become more of a juggernaut since their loss in Norman earlier this season. Since Bradford is healthy, I think the Sooners will win, but the Tigers should make it close.

Other thoughts from this weekend....

I don't think West Virginia is really the best team in the country, but I don't trust Pitt to do anything but continue to underachieve.

I knew Oregon would collapse without Dixon, but today's ineptitude was rather stunning.

I know David's upset, but come on, the Cougs didn't Coug it! That has to be applauded!

Watching Saban's Tide roll to yet another Iron Bowl loss was pleasing.

I knew we'd beat the Sun Devils, but I can't say I expected the Trojans of the last few years to finally show up.

Les Miles is every bit the inept coach we all have been suspecting him to be, and welcome back to the Heisman podium, Darren McFadden! Still, imagine how good Arkansas could have been if they had a real quarterback....

This has been a season of redemption for Rich Brooks, but the late-season stumbles showed Kentucky still hasn't built up the depth of talent necessary to survive and thrive on top in a league as tough as the BCS.

Many of us have been wondering why Scott Wolf has insisted on ranking Texas so high, and hopefully with yesterday's results, Wolfie will have finally seen the light.

Colorado 65, Nebraska 51. Since when did the Big 12 teams start playing like WAC teams? Oh, that's right -- when Dan Hawkins popped up in Boulder after his successful stint with Boise State....

I want Ohio State, but if they're unavailable, I'd love to beat down an SEC team. Will Georgia actually venture west of the Mississippi River to face the Trojans in the Rose Bowl? We'll find out very shortly after USC beats down fUTLA next Saturday. Fight on, USC! BEAT THE 'RUINS!

[Brendan]

In a way, it's too bad LSU lost to Arkansas. If they had made it into the SEC title game with 1 loss, and then lost said title game, they might end up going to Pasadena to play USC. Now THAT would be a Rose Bowl!! But I don't think three-loss LSU, on a two-game losing streak, will be getting a BCS berth.

USC vs. Georgia would be fun, though. But actually, I think Illinois will probably get itself BCS-eligible, so don't you think the folks in Pasadena will likely pick the Illini if Ohio State goes to the title game?

Projected final BCS standings if LSU, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, USC and Hawaii win next Saturday:

1. West Virginia
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Virginia Tech
5. Oklahoma
6. LSU
7. USC
8. Missouri
9. Florida
10. Hawaii
11. Kansas
12. Illinois
13. Arizona State
14. Clemson

Bowl pairings:

Title Game: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: USC vs. ______
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. ______
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. ______
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. ______

Georgia and Hawaii get automatic at-large bids. Because LSU and Georgia are both in, all other SEC teams are ineligible. That leaves Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, ASU and Clemson competing for the other two at-larges. Expected pairings:

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Illinois
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. uhhhhh, Arizona State??? Or Kansas???
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Hawaii

I'm not sure ASU and Clemson would actually be the teams filling out those #13 and #14 spots, but I'm not sure who else to put in there. Wisconsin? South Florida? BYU? There aren't a lot of good options from last week's standings who didn't lose over the weekend and won't lose next weekend in the above scenario.

[Brendan]

P.S. On the other hand, if Missouri beats Oklahoma, the Fiesta Bowl will surely snap up Georgia to replace the Tigers, given the dearth of other attractive options. Rose would be USC vs. tOSU, of course. Orange would be Virginia Tech vs., um, Illinois, I guess. Fiesta gets next pick and chooses either Oklahoma or Kansas to play Georgia. And then Sugar gets LSU vs. Hawaii.

This season is not setting itself up for a wealth of incredibly exciting-sounding bowl matchups, is it?

[Brendan]

P.P.S. If Missouri wins but West Virginia loses, the Rose Bowl would be USC vs. Illinois, the Orange Bowl would be VT vs. West Virginia, the Fiesta Bowl would be Georgia vs. Oklahoma or Kansas, and the Sugar Bowl would be LSU vs. Hawaii.

If Missouri and West Virginia both lose, if the title game is Ohio State vs. Oklahoma, the bowls would basically the same as above, except the Fiesta would have to be Georgia-Kansas for sure, not Georgia-Oklahoma (obviously). If the title game is Ohio State vs. LSU, the Sugar Bowl would be Georgia vs. Hawaii, the Orange and Rose would be the same as above, and the Fiesta would be Oklahoma vs. ASU/Kansas.

I think.

[Andrew]

If OSU ends up in the title game and LSU or Tennessee are in the Sugar Bowl, then the Rose Bowl ought to get the first shot at filling its slot. There's a good chance they'd take Illinois because of the tradition, but the Zookers are nowhere near as exciting a matchup. They'd do well to take Georgia.

[Texasyank]

Brendan: The problem with instant blogging. I was going to add, "Well, the selection scenario has been changed about four different times--and it is ALWAYS changed to correct whatever perceived injustice just happened (see USC, 2003)--and so such a thing blah blah blah." I just forgot.

I suppose I was using Kansas just to illustrate: the most likely scenario is one nobody thinks about. Or thinks hard about.