Hail hail Michigan, defenders of the WAC?

Once upon a time, serial underdog-rooters like myself dared to dream that the November 23 showdown between Hawaii and Boise State would be "an absolutely HUGE game, with not just WAC title implications, but BCS implications" for both teams. Then the Broncos of Boise, the newly crowned Fiesta Bowl champions and mid-major conquering heroes, lost their opener to Washington, and the dream died -- or so we thought. Yet here we are, just over two months later, and the odds are increasing that the Broncos-Warriors clash will be a virtual BCS play-in game (assuming, of course, that both teams take care of business this weekend, and also assuming Hawaii, if it beats Boise State, proceeds to beat Washington the following weekend).

I blogged about this last week, but thanks to the events of this past Saturday -- particularly those in the Big Ten -- and the discovery of a scenario that I hadn't previously considered, it's worth revisiting.

There are three ways for a mid-major conference champion to qualify for the BCS in spite of the bowls' aversion to voluntarily inviting them. One is to finish in the Top 12 of the final BCS standings. Another is to finish between #13 and #16, and ahead of the champion of at least one BCS conference. And the third -- which I hadn't thought of before, until Stewart Mandel mentioned it in yesterday's Mailbag -- is to finish in the Top 14 when four of the other Top 14 teams are ineligible to be invited because of the two-team-per-conference limit, thus forcing the bowls to invite all ten eligible teams, including the "little guy" they'd rather leave at home.

The Top 12 scenario is the easiest to comprehend, but it's also the least likely to occur this season. Hawaii may be able to pull it off, but Boise probably can't, barring several upsets among teams currently ranked a bit above them (e.g., Texas, Florida, etc.).

The Top 16 scenario is much more likely, as I believe both Hawaii and Boise are virtual locks to finish #16 or higher if they win out. The bigger question is whether any BCS champion will finish below them, and while everyone seems to be focusing on the ACC and Big East on that front, I believe the key to the whole scenario is Saturday's game in Ann Arbor. Fans of the Warriors and Broncos may want to wear some maize & blue these next couple of days, and perhaps softly hum "Hail to the Victors" as they go about their business, because their hopes of reaching the BCS may well depend on the fortunes of the Michigan Wolverines. I'll return to that scenario and analyze it in more detail after the jump.

Then there's the Top 14 scenario. In this situation, the WAC champ wouldn't technically get an "automatic" BCS bid, but they'd be guaranteed an invitation anyway because of a glut of SEC, Pac-10 and Big 12 teams in the BCS Top 14. Here's how it would work: if the ACC, Big Ten and Big East champions all finish in the Top 14, and no other teams from those conferences join them there, that would leave seven BCS invitations to go around, but the other three major conferences are only eligible for two invitations each -- a total of six. That leaves one extra, which would of necessity go to a #13- or #14-ranked WAC champ.

More on both of the latter two scenarios after the jump.

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The Warriors and Broncos #16 and #18 now, respectively, in the BCS standings. For purposes of the Top 16 scenario, that puts Hawaii right where they want to be, rankings-wise, and Boise just two spots away -- and they can earn one of those two spots themselves just by beating Hawaii.

But it gets better, because at least three of the four ACC teams clustered around them (#10 Virginia Tech, #14 Virginia, #15 Clemson, #17 Boston College) must lose at least one more game. Also, someone must lose the Thanksgiving Day game between #8 ASU and #11 USC. The Trojans would probably fall behind the Warriors/Broncos with a loss; if the Sun Devils lose, it would be a close call. Moreover, if #21 Michigan beats #7 Ohio State, the Buckeyes will plummet in the polls, probably falling behind the Boise-Hawaii winner. If you don't believe me, just ask Boston College how far a formerly undefeated team that was suspected all along of being fraudulent can fall in the polls when they follow up their first loss of the season with a second consecutive defeat: the Eagles went from #2 to #8 to #18 in just two weeks.

But that's not the main reason a Michigan win would be so helpful. The main reason is because Boise and Hawaii need to move ahead of a BCS conference champion, and that's exactly what Michigan would be with a win -- and I think the Wolverines would still be ranked below the Boise-Hawaii winner.

Michigan is ranked #22 and #23, respectively, in the Harris and USA Today polls after losing to Wisconsin on Saturday. Boise State is ranked #15 in both; Hawaii is #11 and #12. The computers favor the Wolverines, which is why the teams are presently closer in the BCS than in the polls. But Boise and Hawaii will both see their computer ratings improve markedly when they play each other. Moreover, Michigan has played more games (11) than either the Broncos (10) or the Warriors (9) have to date. That will change, and because the computers care about win-loss percentages and number of wins, the potential champions of the WAC have more room for improvement than the "champions of the west." Boise's 9-1 can improve to 11-1; Hawaii's 9-0 can improve to 12-0. Michigan's 8-3 can only improve to 9-3, and then the Wolverines will be stuck.

The bigger issue, though, is the pollsters. If Michigan beats Ohio State at the Big House, I strongly suspect that the pollsters will punish the Buckeyes more than they reward the Wolverines. The reputation of the Big Ten's top two teams hung by a thread even before last Saturday's upsets by Wisconsin and Illinois, and now that thread has snapped entirely. If the Team That Lost To Appalachian State beats the Team That Got Clobbered Last Season By Florida to win the Big Ten championship with an overall record of 9-3, it will be seen more as validation of the belief that Ohio State was fraudulent all along than as any sort of surprising revelation that Michigan is good. The Wolverines' reputation is pretty much dead and buried at this point, unless and until they beat a quality non-Big Ten opponent (e.g., in the Rose Bowl).

As a result, I believe three-loss Michigan would only gain a few spots in the polls with a win over tOSU, and would almost certainly remain behind one-loss Boise and undefeated Hawaii. I don't even think it would be close enough for the computers to make a difference, especially given that the Warriors and Broncos get the "final say," the last chance to make an impression on the voters. Timing matters in college football, and in this case, for once, it favors the little guy.

There are other scenarios in which the Boise/Hawaii winner could qualify via the Top 16 rule, mostly involving either the Big East or the ACC, but those are more complicated and require a lot of things to go just right. UConn winning out in the Big East might not be enough, because I think the two-loss Huskies might leapfrog Hawaii or Boise if they finish their season with a win over one-loss West Virginia to clinch the Big East title; the Mountaineers are more well-respected than Ohio State at this point, so that win would earn them more of a "boost" in the polls than a win over the Buckeys would earn the Wolverines. Maybe if West Virginia loses first to Cincinnati and then to UConn, it could happen. There are even wilder Big East scenarios that would definitely do the trick, but they're quite unlikely, as they involve teams like Syracuse and Pitt winning games.

As for the ACC, the trick is for Boston College, Clemson or maybe Virginia Tech to lose a game, but then win the conference championship. Could happen, but things have to occur in just the right sequence. Heck, even the SEC champion could end up ranked below the WAC champ, but it would require Georgia, Tennessee and Florida all to lose another conference game, and then the four-loss Vols to beat LSU in the title game. Probably not gonna happen.

So if I'm a Boise or Hawaii fan (and, since I love to root for the underdog, for present purposes I pretty much am), I'm throwing all my eggs into one basket and rooting like hell for Michigan this Saturday. Apropos of which...

Hail! to the Broncos valiant
Hail! to the conquering Warriors
Hail! Hail! to underdogs
Hawaii and Boise State
And Hail! to their brave defenders
Hail! to Big Ten pretenders
Hail! Hail! Michigan
The champions of the WAC!

("Champion," of course, being defined in this instance as "a person who fights for or defends any person or cause," not "a person who has defeated all opponents in a competition or series of competitions, so as to hold first place." Michigan would lose at least two games if it played in the the WAC. :)

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Now then, back to the Top 14 scenario that I mentioned earlier. On the face of it, this is not at all far-fetched -- although it's contradictory to the Top 16 scenario, since it most likely requires Ohio State to beat Michigan. It also requires West Virginia and probably Virginia Tech to win out. Those are the expected results, so nothing special there. And finally, in order to prevent Illinois from reaching the Top 14 (and thus becoming a second eligible Big Ten team), this scenario necessitates that there be no upsets that would drop any of the current Top 18 teams, other than the bottom three ACC teams and the Boise-Hawaii loser, out of the final Top 14. (I am assuming that a 10-2 Arizona State team, after losing to USC, would stay in the Top 14, as would the two losers from the Big 12 trio of Kansas-Missouri-Oklahoma.) Here is what the final BCS standings might look like:

1. LSU (12-1)
2. Oregon (11-1)
3. Oklahoma (12-1)
4. West Virginia (11-1)
5. Georgia (10-2)
6. Ohio State (11-1)
7. USC (10-2)
8. Virginia Tech (11-2)
9. Texas (10-2)
10. Florida (9-3)
11. Missouri (11-2)
12. Kansas (11-1)
13. Arizona State (10-2)
14. Boise State (11-1) or Hawaii (12-0)
15. Illinois (8-3)

In this scenario, the bowl selections would go something like this: LSU and Oregon, of course, would go to the championship game. The Sugar Bowl would pick first, to replace LSU, and would choose Georgia. The Rose Bowl would pick second, to replace Oregon, and would choose USC. Ohio State would automatically be slotted into the Rose Bowl to face the Trojans; Virginia Tech would automatically go to the Orange Bowl; and Oklahoma would automatically go to the Fiesta Bowl. The Orange Bowl has first pick of the three remaining bowls with open spots, and would choose West Virginia.

That leaves two remaining spots, in the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls, and a bit of a dilemma for the Tostitos folks: with two Pac-10 and SEC teams already chosen, and no more eligible teams from the Big Ten, ACC or Big East, the only remaining options would be a Big 12 team and the WAC champ (Boise State or Hawaii). Would the Fiesta Bowl choose a Big 12 team to face off against Oklahoma? Maybe if Kansas lost to Missouri, as envisioned by the standings above, Glendale would host a Jayhawks-Sooners game, since that matchup never happened in the regular season. Otherwise, I'm guessing the Fiesta Bowl would eschew a rematch (Oklahoma-Texas or Oklahoma-Missouri) and, remembering the high drama and great ticket sales provided by Boise State the year before, would choose the WAC champ. The Sugar Bowl, delighted by this lucky break, would then pick Texas to face Georgia in a matchup that sounds like the Cotton Bowl on steroids.

Alternatively, if the Fiesta Bowl picked a Big 12 team to play Oklahoma, Boise or Hawaii would go the New Orleans and play Georgia. The Sugar Bowl would have no choice; there would be no other eligible teams. Either way, Boise State or Hawaii would go BCS bowlin', despite not cracking the Top 12 or finishing ahead of a major-conference champion. What a world!

Of course, as I mentioned, that scenario requires no major upsets in the season's final three weeks, which might be a stretch given the way this year has gone. But there could be room for an upset or two, without disrupting the scenario, if Illinois loses to Northwestern, provided the Illini's place in the rankings is taken by a Pac-10, Big 12 or SEC team.

Regardless, this is a possibility I hadn't considered before, and it certainly bears watching.

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Of course, as some clever readers have realized by now, there is also the possibility of the Top 14 only producing nine eligible teams, in which case the BCS commissioners would have to come up with a contingency because there simply wouldn't be enough teams available to fill out the five BCS bowls. This is a problem that I noticed last year, and this year it is a real possibility. Imagine, for example, the same scenario outlined above, except that Tennessee wins out and stuns LSU in the SEC championship game. If that happened, the final standings would look something like this:

1. Oregon (11-1)
2. Oklahoma (12-1)
3. West Virginia (11-1)
4. Georgia (10-2)
5. LSU (11-2)
6. Ohio State (11-1)
7. USC (10-2)
8. Virginia Tech (11-2)
9. Texas (10-2)
10. Florida (9-3)
11. Tennessee (10-3)
12. Missouri (11-2)
13. Kansas (11-1)
14. Arizona State (10-2)
15. Boise State (11-1) or Hawaii (12-0)
16. Illinois (8-3)

Now what? With the WAC champ ineligible for a bid, there aren't enough teams to fill the BCS bowls! The title game matches Oregon vs. Oklahoma (pray they don't use Pac-10 refs!), the Rose Bowl remains USC vs. Ohio State, the Orange Bowl remains Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia (or perhaps they choose Georgia instead?), the Fiesta Bowl takes Texas to replace Oklahoma and matches them against West Virginia or Georgia (whoever is still available), and the Sugar Bowl pits Tennessee against... who? No one is eligible to fill the final spot!

This is the very scenario that Mandel addressed in his Mailbag, and here's what he wrote about it:

Stewart, what would happen if not enough conferences had eligible teams in the top 14 to fill the four at-large spots while sticking to the two-teams-per-conference maximum? (i.e., four SEC teams, four Big 12 teams, three Pac-10 teams, and only one each from the ACC, Big East and Big Ten).
--Hank Worrell, Roanoke, Va.

That's a great question, one I wondered myself after looking at this week's standings and seeing how close we are to that actually happening (substitute Tennessee for Virginia, and you'd have the exact breakdown Hank describes). And the answer is ... there isn't one yet.

You know how it sometimes seems like the BCS makes up the rules as it goes along? In this case, that's exactly what they're doing. According to my sources, the BCS commissioners have discussed the possibility but have not yet formalized a contingency. Sometime in the next week or so, they're expected to hold a call and choose between three options: Making the No. 15 team available, increasing the pool of at-large candidates by five or allowing three teams from one conference. Just my hunch: They'll try to avoid the third option, because that would mean one league reaping significantly more revenue than the three conferences with just one berth.

As I wrote last year, "This is an even stronger argument than Wisconsin’s griping for eliminating the two-team-per-conference limit. Either that, or the eligible at-large pool needs to be expanded beyond 14 teams. Either way, something’s gotta be done, because one of these years, this will happen. We were pretty darn close this year." I never envisioned, though, that a slight variation of this problem could potentially benefit a small-conference team like Boise State or Hawaii. Nice!

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All that said, in light of how upset-prone this season has been, I doubt the Top 14 scenario (or the OMG We Don't Have Enough Teams variation thereof) will happen. The Top 16 scenario, by contrast, would be helped by upsets, so that's the one I'd be focusing on if I were a Boise State or Hawaii fan. (If Ohio State beats Michigan, though, the Top 14 scenario might deserve a closer look.)

Comments

[Jay Johnson]

I'm a big fan of the Vols taking on no one in the Sugar Bowl, because I'm confident that's a game they can win.

Of course, the getting there is half the battle anyway.

BTW, I thought you had a job and stuff now. Where do you get time to 1.) think this stuff up, and 2.) to write about it in this detail?

Sheesh.

[Ryan]

"The bigger issue, though, is the pollsters. If Michigan beats Ohio State at the Big House, I strongly suspect that the pollsters will punish the Buckeyes more than they reward the Wolverines."

I wholeheartedly agree with this and it drives me nuts. Do people not remember that Michigan beat Illinois at night IN Illinois?

I'm going to be furious if Michigan loses and the 2nd place Big ten team gets relegated to the 4th place crapamo bowl in San Antonio.

[Brendan]

To answer your question, Jay, I've been working on this post literally since Sunday. :)

[Sandy Underpants]

I didn't know beating Illinois... at home... at night was something to get excited about. This is the first season Illinois has won more than half their games in about 10 years.

How great of a reward should Michigan receive for being 8-3 and getting blown out by 30 at home the week after they lost to a I-AA team at home? I think a top 25 ranking and Rose Bowl bid is too much to be honest.

[Sandy Underpants]

You dream of a day that Hawaii vs. Boise St. would not just have WAC implications but BCS implications? If the future of the WAC were hanging in the balance and the winner and loser of the game could mean the end of that conference for the rest of CFB history-- I still don't think anyone would care to watch it. Plus it would kick-off at 1am eastern. Maybe if they kicked off a little later people would wake up in time Sunday morning to accidentally see it while trying to find the Magic Bullet infomercial on TV.

[Andrew]

How in the world did you manage to start working on this post on Sunday if you weren't even aware of the third scenario until Stewart Mandel's mailbag yesterday (which was the purported spark behind your speculation)? :-P

I don't think a 10-2 Ohio State falls behind a one-loss Boise State, but I think an undefeated Hawaii would jump in front of OSU in that scenario. I think voters will remember Boise State lost to Washington, which turned around and got clobbered by the Buckeyes.

[Brendan Loy]

The Mandel article was only the spark for the "Top 14 scenario" part of the post. I'd been working on the "Top 16" part since Sunday, and it had gone through various incarnations. Besides, I had already done the analysis of who was going to rise/fall and how far, etc., so writing the new Top 14 part last night and today on my lunch break was pretty easy. :)