Irish Trojan in Tennessee

Sullivan, Lopez battle for USC pool win

By Brendan Loy

As some of you have doubtless noticed, I haven't actually gotten around to posting an official update on the USC and Notre Dame prediction contests... all season long. Um, yeah, sorry about that!

Luckily, commenter and contestant Ken Stern has posted several unofficial updates, most recently on November 11... and if that update was correct (and I have no reason to believe otherwise, indeed my spot-checking confirms his calculations), two contestants -- Sean Sullivan and Vicki Lopez -- remain alive to win the USC pool, with the outcome to be decided by tomorrow's USC-UCLA game.

Sullivan and Lopez are among 13 contestants with 9-2 prediction records, but they have the lowest "point differentials" of the bunch, meaning they have come the closest to picking USC's margin of victory or defeat in each game. Lopez is a total of 104 points off to date, while Sullivan is a total of 106 points off. Sullivan picked USC to beat UCLA by 17; Lopez picked the Trojans to win by 27. That means Sullivan will win if USC either loses or wins by 20 points or less; Lopez will win if the Trojans win by 22 or more. If USC wins by exactly 21 points, they would finish tied, with identical point differentials of 110 and no further tiebreakers to separate them.

Interestingly enough, with the point spread set at 20 by most oddsmakers, the prediction contest almost literally comes down to a question of whether the Trojans cover. If they don't, Sullivan wins. If they do, Lopez wins, unless they win by exactly 20 (Sullivan still wins) or by 21 (it's a tie).

Anyway, the big question is, can Lopez (a.k.a. "Vicki from NJ") finally win a BrendanLoy.com contest? Three times -- in the 2005 and 2006 Oscar pools and the 2006 women's NCAA pool -- she has been in position to win heading into the final event of a contest, only to lose at the wire. Can the Trojans win big, and break the "Lopez Curse" tomorrow? :)

In the Notre Dame pool, by the way, Sandy Underpants won, clinching early and never looking back even as he went 1-3 through the last four games of the season. He correctly predicted that the Irish would go 3-9, but he managed to get four games wrong along the way (he thought they'd lose to UCLA and Stanford, but beat Navy and Air Force) to finish with an 8-4 prediction record. That was better than anyone else, though. Andrew Long and Ken Stern, who both thought the Irish would 6-6, tied for second with 7-5 prediction records (both missed the Michigan State, Purdue, UCLA, Navy and Air Force games); Stern finished second on the basis of a lower point differential (183 to 197). No one else got fewer than six games wrong.

I'll try to post full, official standings of both pools at some point. Maybe by the time the baby starts kindergarten. :)

Nebraska picks Pelini over Gill

By Brendan Loy

Nebraska's new head coach will reportedly be LSU's Bo Pelini, not Buffalo's Turner Gill. YAY!!! (Hat tip: DUP and Scientizzle.)

They're ecstatic over at UBfan.com.

Hopefully this means Gill stays at UB and builds that program for at least a good while longer. He's been mentioned as a possible candidate for some other openings (e.g. Duke, Wazzu), but it was widely believed that Nebraska in particular was the one job he'd drop everything for. If so, then the Bulls have dodged a major bullet. It'd be great to see them continue to build on this year's improvement, with Gill at the helm.

UPDATE: No comment from Nebraska's interim athetic director, interim coach, and possibly interim quarterback and interim kicker, Tom Osborne.

Meanwhile, it's looking like a mass exodus from Baton Rouge, with rumors on the Internets saying that LSU head coach Les Miles already has one foot out the door, heading for to Ann Arbor.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Police arrest suspect to end hostage standoff at Hillary Clinton's campaign offices in Rochester, New Hampshire.

Dorrell blames Willingham Toledo

By Brendan Loy

Karl Dorrell is begging for one more year as UCLA's head coach. In the course of making his case, he says this: "I hate to say it, but the guy who was before me screwed it up for me. And I had to clean it up and then rebuild." That's right, folks, Dorrell is blaming Bob Toledo, who was fired in 2002, for the Bruins' continued woes. And you thought the Notre Dame fans still blaming Ty Willingham were bad!! And this is coming from Dorrell himself!! LOL!! Way to take responsibility. You stay classy, Coach Dorrell.

More good stuff at DumpDorrell.com.

Alas, while I personally would love to see Dorrell stick around as UCLA's coach forever, I'm afraid it is USC's sad duty to dispense with him once and for all tomorrow. Ah, well -- it'll be well worth it, of course, not just for the Rose Bowl bid, not just for the win over our hated rival, but also for the pictures of Mike Tran driving around L.A. in his sweet Trojanmobile on Rose Bowl day.

BEAT THE BRUINS!!!

P.S. I checked the Bruins' roster, and in case anyone was wondering, no, UCLA does not have any sixth-year seniors, so Dorrell can't say he's still playing with Toledo's recruits. ;)

Hostages being held at Clinton campaign office

By David K.

Not sure how this hasn't been posted as a CNN alert yet, but an ongoing hostage situation is underway at Hillary Clinton's campaign office in Rochester, NH.  Senator Clinton is in Washington and has canceled her schedule for the day.  More info here.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Legendary motorcycle stuntman Evel Knievel died Friday, according to evelknievel.com

Man killed by exploding cellphone....or not

By David K.

A story came out of Korea a few days ago, reported on by the blog Engadget, about the death of a quarry worker that was being initially blamed on his cellphone.  According to the story he was found dead with the remains of the burned cellphone in his pocket.  Of course it all sound a little suspicious and investigation by the local authorities found that the mans injuries were too extensive to have been caused by a possible exploding battery.  How extensive you ask?  Well since the actual cause of death was being backed into by a 15 ton hydraulic rig driven by a coworker, i'm guessing there were pretty severe. The co-worker who fabricated the story of hearing an explosion and finding the body, later admitted to the crime and is being charged with manslaughter.

So there you have it, even if your cellphone explodes it probably won't do so with enough force to give you injuries equivalent to being hit by a 15 ton vehicle.  Don't you feel much better now?

Last call for baby pool entries

By JLR

Now that Becky is entering the last month before her due date, I am calling on her friends and family who have not already done so to enter the Irish Trojan Baby Pool today!  I am cutting off all entries at 12:00 midnight (Eastern) tonight. 

Why am I doing this?  Since the due date is usually only a "best guess," the baby is most likely to arrive a couple of weeks early, a couple of weeks late, or anywhere in between.  After talking to Brendan a month or so ago, we agreed that today would be the LAST day for entries.

Also note, guesses placed on this entry's comments will not be counted.  Please click here (again, that's here) to enter.

[NOTE: This post will stay on top of the homepage for the rest of the day. New posts will appear below it. -ed.]

Trojans beat OU; Kansas, Memphis next

By Brendan Loy

 

USC, having rejoined the Top 25 this week after routing Southern Illinois on Sunday, defended their #22 ranking with a 66-55 win over Oklahoma at the Galen Center yesterday. Freshmen Devon Jefferson and O.J. Mayo, pictured above, led the way with 23 and 18 points, respectively. Up next for the Trojans: a home date with #4-ranked Kansas on Sunday, followed by a trip to #3-ranked Memphis on Tuesday.

And then they wonder why we think they are nuts

By dcl

Seriously, if you don't want the west to get incredulous with you, don't do #$@& like this. Death? For naming a teddy bear Mohammed? Setting aside the fact that the Teddy Bear itself is named after one this nation's best regarded presidents, or that Winnie the Pooh is named after one Winston Churchill. Do you really think anyone would get this upset if someone named a stuffed toy Jesus Christ (Brendan might even have one so named). I mean, even the most religiously conservative Christian Nation you could find wouldn't call for death in a case like this, would they? I mean the worst case scenario would be you get told it's insensitive to name the toy Jesus and you'd be asked to change it. And heck, people drink umbrella drinks from buddha cups and nobody seems to get particularly offended by this--even though consuming intoxicants violates one of the Buddhist's five precepts. Okay, I'm done grumbling...

The bet, 2007 edition

By Brendan Loy

Two years ago, Mike Tran and I made a friendly bet on the USC-UCLA game, which, thanks to USC's 66-19 win, resulted in Mike becoming a Trojan for a day.

Last year, we made another bet, and needless to say, things didn't go quite as well for me. The Trojans lost 13-9, so I had to wear Mike's UCLA jersey to our Professional Responsibility class, and publish a blog post about "Why UCLA is superior to USC." The latter was particularly galling because, as a rule, I like to be truthful and accurate in what I post on the blog. Posting such blatant lies was borderline unethical. ;)

Mike and I have made other friendly bets over the last two years on games of peripheral interest (USC-ND, ND-UCLA, UCLA-Gonzaga), most recently resulting in me officially owning him, but it's when our undergrad alma maters meet that the stakes are highest -- and in those contests, we're each 1-1. Tomorrow, though, somebody will break the tie.

Here are the terms: If USC wins, Mike has to buy a USC car flag, and must put it (and keep it) on his car December 31 and January 1. So he'll be driving around L.A. flying Trojan colors on the day before, and the day of, the Rose Bowl... muahahaha. He also has to get a picture, well in advance, of himself with the flag-adorned car, and send me a copy of said picture, so that I can set it to post automatically on the blog on January 1 (in case I'm in the hospital that day, which is a distinct possibility). Oh, and when he's done with the flag, he has to send it to me, and I get to keep it.

If UCLA wins, I have to do much the same thing, but for a longer period of time -- that's our way of dealing with the odds, because USC is favored by 20 points, but we're betting straight-up on the game. So if the Bruins are victorious, I have to buy a UCLA car flag and keep it on my car for seven days: to and from work on five weekdays and all day long on two weekend/holiday days. And I have to post a different picture of it on the blog (presumably via cell phone) every single day. (Ugh... that would be a nightmare, because I probably won't be blogging much in late December and early January, so the homepage would most likely be dominated by pictures of the UCLA flag.)

If UCLA plays in the Rose Bowl, New Year's Day must be one of the weekend/holiday days, unless we spend that day at the hospital. My end of the bargain is more flexible about the dates than his because of the uncertain timing of the baby's arrival. (Obviously, Mike doesn't want me to get credit for leaving the flag on the car while it's parked at the hospital for 48+ hours, out of sight and out of mind.) But I have to do it at some point during bowl season. And, again, when I'm done with the flag, I have to send it to Mike, and he keeps it.

So there you have it. If USC loses, I'm sending Pete Carroll my therapy bills for the humiliation I'll suffer from driving around town looking like a bandwagon fUCLA fan. Ugh. FIGHT ON TROJANS, BEAT THE BRUINS!!!

Turner Gill named MAC's top coach

By Brendan Loy

University at Buffalo head football coach Turner Gill, who was interviewed on Monday for the Nebraska job, has in the mean time been named MAC coach of the year for guiding the historically hapless Bulls to their best Division I-A season ever, with a record of 5-7. Which, incidentally, is identical to Nebraska's record this season. Raise your hand if you saw that coming before the season started.

UPDATE: In a development that should surprise no one, ESPN is reporting that "Nebraska has narrowed its search to two candidates: Turner Gill, head coach at Buffalo, and Bo Pelini, the defensive coordinator at LSU." Those two have been considered the front-runners all along.

Pelini! Pick Pelini!

UPDATE 2: Mum's the word:

As the University at Buffalo football team was being honored at halftime of Thursday’s basketball game against Tulane, the Bulls’ student section made their feelings clear about Turner Gill.

“Turner stay, Turner stay!” they chanted. “Turner stay!”

Afterward, the only thing Gill wanted to discuss was UB football, not the possibility of becoming the next coach at Nebraska. Gill, a front-runner for the job almost from the time Tom Osborne became the interim athletics director at the school, declined comment on anything Cornhuskers related Thursday.

“Unable to comment,” Gill said. “That’s all I can say.”

Also Thursday, Osborne declared himself the interim coach until he hires a successor to Bill Callahan, allowing Nebraska’s beloved former coach to visit prospective recruits and try to prevent the program from slipping during the recruiting contact period. Osborne said he hoped to have a new coach by next week.

Gill, who according to sources met with Nebraska officials Monday, was also asked if he had been contacted by other schools, and also declined comment. Gill’s name has surfaced for openings at Washington State as well as Duke. He said he remains committed to coaching at UB.

The basketball team beat Tulane, by the way.

USC to leave Coliseum, play at Rose Bowl?!

By Brendan Loy

USC says it may move its home games from the Coliseum to the Rose Bowl starting next season, due to a breakdown in negotiations with Coliseum management. Scott Wolf says this announcement, particularly in light of its timing the week before the UCLA game, "really smells like a negotiating ploy by USC to pressure the Coliseum into agreeing to its demands," which Wolf suspects involve not just "improvements" but "revenue-sharing plans (like luxury suites)." Here's how USC's top lawyer, senior vice president for administration Todd Dickey, characterizes the university's demands:

"Our first choice is to play at the Coliseum. However, the Coliseum needs some significant improvements. The sound system is barely audible, the video system is failing, the bathrooms need upgrades, the entrances, the seats, the lighting, just about everything needs work."

Dickey says USC "has offered to make those improvements," but the university doesn't want to "just to hand the money over to the Coliseum Commission" -- it wants to "actually operate the facility." That, naturally, is the sticking point. The quasi-public Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Commission doesn't want to hand over the keys of the kingdom to those high-falutin' University of Spoiled Children snobs. [/sarcasm] The L.A. Times opines: "some political observers have suggested that commissioners would like to avoid making themselves superfluous." You think?

The Rose Bowl is a neat and historic venue (of course, so is the Coliseum!), and this would be a return to tradition of the Trojans and Bruins sharing the same home stadium (the Bruins were at the Coliseum from 1928 through 1981), and perhaps both wearing their home jerseys when they square off each season. But it would stink for USC students. The walk to the nearby Coliseum -- kicking that flagpole for good luck on the way, and then walking past the rose garden, and past the local Mexican food vendors selling churros and such -- is a memorable aspect of football Saturdays at 'SC. Braving traffic on the 110 to Pasadena would be far less romantic, and far more inconvenient.

And of course, it would stink for the L.A. economy, too, from hotels and restaurants on down to those food vendors I mentioned, not to mention the locals who charge obscene prices for parking near the stadium. As a result, Mayor Villaraigosa is raising a ruckus, pontifficating about how he is "absolutely committed" to maintaining the status quo: "USC football is one of the most important economic engines in South Los Angeles and the Mayor has no interest in seeing those jobs leave for Pasadena." I'm not sure whether the Mayor's "interests" matter for present purposes, except perhaps to get the Trojans some bad press from Telemundo, but I suppose he might be able to pressure the Coliseum Commission to make USC happy. [UPDATE: Boi From Troy, who, as an Angeleno, has far better knowledge than I of the strange quasi-governmental structures they have out there, points out that Mayor Villaraigosa "matters because he directly appoints 2 of 9 Coliseum Commission members." Well then! I stand corrected. But my error was totally worth it for the Mirthala Salinas joke.]

In any event, Pete Carroll isn't concerned about a possible move to the Rose Bowl. "It's kind of been our second home since we've been here," he says. Heh. Indeed.

Some players, however, aren't taking the news so well. The Coliseum is "my home," said linebacker Keith Rivers. "I wouldn't want to change that." Added offensive linesman Jeff Byers: "[You can take our lives but] you can't take away the Coliseum. [I AM WILLIAM WALLACE!!]"

I'll just say this. If, heaven forbid, USC loses to UCLA on Saturday, it almost certainly won't be because the players were distracted by this news. But no one will be able to prove that that wasn't a contributing factor, and as a result, people will talk about it, and they'll wonder, and they'll gripe. The university will take a lot of heat for its ridiculously poor (well-calculated, no doubt, but in the grand scheme of things, poor) timing here. And rightfully so.

Of course, there's a simple way to avoid that problem: BEAT THE BRUINS!!!

P.S. On the bright side, a move to the Rose Bowl would mean USC students wouldn't have to deal with being physically assaulted by Coliseum rent-a-cops.

P.P.S. Also, a doubleheader at the Rose Bowl next November 8 -- Oregon State @ UCLA, then Cal @ USC -- would be way fun. Er, except for the hellacious traffic, that is.

It's Nutt-y in Oxford

By Jay Johnson

Ole Miss has hired Houston Nutt to take over the head coaching duties for the nightmarishly bad Rebels football team.

Bowling for mediocrity

By Brendan Loy

Out of curiosity, is anyone excited about any of these projected bowl matchups?

I mean, not that Rutgers vs. Ball State in Toronto won't be awesome... not that a UCLA-BYU rematch in the Las Vegas Bowl wouldn't be thrilling... but it does sort of seem like the craziest college-football season in the history of mankind has left us with, at least on paper, a somewhat lackluster postseason. Of course, what's "on paper" means nothing this year, right? But still.

Personally, if all of Mandel's bowl predictions were to prove correct, here are the Top 5 games I'd be most interested in watching:

McCain?

By Brendan Loy

There's been some right-blogospheric chatter in recent weeks about giving John McCain a second look, and after watching his latest ad, Andrew Sullivan wonders whether McCain is "going to become the Kerry of this election cycle: dismissed as old hat for months and then newly relevant in the weeks before the primaries." Maybe. Here's the ad:

My two-year-old dinner bet notwithstanding, I'd like to see McCain make a comeback. Whether I want him to be president, I'm not sure, but at least he's a grown-up, and at least he has actual beliefs and principles, unlike some candidates I could mention (cough cough, Mitt Romney).

P.S. Glenn Reynolds is less impressed, paraphrasing McCain's ad as saying, "Don't hate me because I'm smarter than you."

Al & George

By Brendan Loy

Heh:

Hey, wasn't there a SNL sketch about this?

Coaching carousel update

By Brendan Loy

Washington State's Bill Doba: fired.

Georgia Tech's Chan Gailey: fired.

Duke's Ted Roof: fired.

Southern Miss's Jeff Bower: fired.

And finally, Arkansas's Houston Nutt: inexplicably offered a new contract, which he inexplicably turned down, possibly to go to Ole Miss.

P.S. Oh, and Syracuse's Greg Robinson may be next.

UCLA's Karl Dorrell will, of course, have a job for at least five days. I wonder: if the Bruins somehow beat USC and go to the Rose Bowl, will they still fire Dorrell? And if so, will he be the first coach ever to be fired immediately after leading his team to the Rose Bowl? Heh.

UPDATE: ESPN.com has created an incredibly helpful coaching carousel page with a list of all the departing coaches and (eventually) their successors. Cool.

A Lott of goodbyes

By JLR

Senator Trent Lott (R-Miss) has announced his retirement, effective sometime in December or January.  Though his temporary replacement will be nominated and placed by Republican Governor of Mississippi, Haley Barbour, this is a stunning turn for Republicans in the Senate.  As the #2 Republican in the Senate (and formerly the #1 Republican and Majority Leader), Lott made himself a lot of friends and made himself a lot of enemies--especially after his comments about how it would have been great if a segregationist candidate (Strom Thurmond) had won the 1948 presidential race.

What's my take?  Anytime a powerful conservative decides to leave either house of the Congress, I'm perfectly happy.  Of course, chances are good that Arizona Senator John Kyl, who is loads more conservative than most of the Republicans in Congress, will take over as minority whip.  Then again, it's possible that someone else might overtake him.  It's also possible that either Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX) or Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), both of whom are more moderate than Kyl, might run for the #3 spot. 

In all, though, it probably won't matter much between now and--at the very least--2009 when the new Congress takes over.  As long as Democrats maintain a majority, it seems much less likely that this change will have a major effect on legislation.  True, a conservative leadership on the Republican side of the aisle would make bipartisanship more difficult (just as a liberal leadership on the Democratic side would).  However, the immediate impact would not be as large as it would have been if the Republicans still controlled the Senate.

Hurricane forecasters say seasonal errors are hurting their credibility

By Brendan Loy

The Miami Herald has an excellent article about the third consecutive high-profile failure of seasonal hurricane forecasts to closely approximate reality. (The forecasted storm totals were way too low in 2005, way too high in 2006, and substantially too high in 2007.) The article focuses, quite rightly IMHO, on the fear that these forecasting failures are lowering the public's confidence in the much more important -- and much more accurate -- operational forecasts regarding individual storms that the National Hurricane Center does such an excellent job with. I talked about this issue in my season wrap-up for Pajamas Media, and the Herald keys on it as well. Excerpt:

[G]iven the errors -- which can undermine faith in the entire hurricane warning system -- are these full-season forecasts doing more harm than good? [Yes. -ed.]

''The seasonal hurricane forecasters certainly have a lot of explaining to do,'' said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center. ...

Mayfield and virtually all hurricane researchers and forecasters, some of whom were skeptical years ago, now support the issuing of full-season predictions. [Why?? -ed.]

But many openly share concerns about the current system, focusing in particular on NOAA's tendency to subtly link the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County to the seasonal forecasts produced by [Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal forecaster]'s team, which is based in Maryland.

In fact, it is important to emphasize the distinction between the six-month seasonal forecasts and the real-time forecasts of an actual hurricane or other tropical system, which are called "operational forecasts.'' ...

Many [operational forecasters] worry ... that substantial errors in those full-season predictions can undermine faith in their generally accurate forecasts of actual storms.

They note that NOAA, parent agency of the hurricane center and Bell's team, often releases Bell's predictions during pre-season news conferences conducted at the hurricane center.

During other years, the hurricane center's director is ordered to participate in the pre-season news conference, wherever it might be held.

''NOAA has been using the good name of the National Hurricane Center, at least to some extent, to help promote the seasonal product and that's not the mission of operational hurricane forecasters,'' Mayfield said.

''In some areas, hurricane forecasters are losing credibility even though they are not the lead on this -- and that's always a concern,'' he said. "We don't want the credit for the seasonal forecasts.''

Bell said the differences between the two groups should be clear to the public by now. He said South Floridians and other residents of the hurricane zone should never disregard real-time forecasts, especially based on a misconception about the full-season predictions.

''There's no basis for those kinds of comments,'' Bell said, "especially if they're made by people who don't know what they're talking about.''

There might be "no basis" for comments linking operational forecasts and seasonal forecasts -- no valid basis, anyway -- but NOAA is setting itself for the inevitability that such comments will be made, with or without a "basis," when it releases its seasonal forecast with such a media splash and involves the NHC in that splash. So forgive me if I have little sympathy for the hue and cry that people "who don't know what they're talking about" are to blame for this. Ignorant people will always mouth off about things they don't understand, all the moreso when it suits a political agenda. NOAA is squarely to blame for giving them an easy opportunity to do so.

Philip Klotzbach, who issues the Colorado State forecast along with William Gray, "said long-range predictions satisfy the public's 'inherent curiosity'," according to the Herald. Well, he's a scientist, so he can do stuff simply for curiosity's sake if he wants to. But NOAA officials aren't just scientists, they're also policymakers, and they need to base their actions on sound policy judgments -- not just a desire to satisfy idle curiosity. It seems to me that these seasonal forecasts are indeed doing more harm than good, and NOAA should either stop issuing its own forecast or at least vastly scale back the media profile that it chooses to give that forecast. Don't call a press conference, don't do interviews, just quietly release the thing on the Internet (loaded with caveats) and satisfy the weather nerds' "curiosity" that way, without unintentionally (but foreseeably!) misinforming the public at large. And certainly, if you must make a media splash, don't involve the NHC operational forecasters in it, for heaven's sake.

It would also be a good idea to issue a press release, whenever anybody releases a seasonal forecast, reminding the media how generally pointless and useless these things are, that they're really just a curiosity, and that we ought to focus on what matters: preparing for big landfalling storms (which can happen in active and "inactive" seasons alike) and forecasting them accurately when they actually form.

Anyway, read the whole thing. And if anyone is tempted to turn this thread into a global-warming debate, please at least read my PJM piece first, if you haven't already. I address a lot of the obvious arguments there (like the old stand-by, "OMG If They Can't Even Forecast A Hurricane Season, Then How Can They Forecast The Climate In 100 Years?? Al Gore Suxxx!!") and I'd rather not repeat myself.

P.S. I will, however, repeat what meteorology Ph.D. student Charles Fenwick wrote back in August, because he made the point very well:

I don’t take too much interest in [seasonal forecasts] personally and don’t like how they are being pushed to the general public. They are a experimental works in progress and should be treated as such. I am most displeased with NOAA’s trumpeting of their forecasts. It gives the public the sense that these are operational forecasts that are on par with the other forecasts of the National Weather Service and that is definitely not the case. [One blog commenter, responding to a dire track forecast for an individual storm, asked], “Where are all the hurricanes the NHC had forecast for the last 2 years? just curious as to why we should panic over predictions that have little or no accuracy?” This shows the confusion that the hurricane season forecasts cause because the National Hurricane Center is not the agency that puts out the seasonal forecast and, as I just said, the seasonal forecasts do not have the same accuracy as the operational forecasts put out by the NHC. … [The seasonal] forecasts are most useful for people who have a stake in the macro-scale, namely insurance companies. They are of little value to individuals.

Indeed.

UPDATE: Welcome, InstaPundit readers!

Gig 'em, I guess.

By Jay Johnson

After the monumental failure with the hire of Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M backs up excellent decision making with the hiring of a failed NFL head coach that couldn't get a Brett Favre led team to the Super Bowl in the then-pathetic NFC.

Mike Sherman?  Really?

Way to go Aggies! (False exuberance here.  I see nothing in this hire for anyone at TAMU to be excited about.  This is as lackluster of a hire as could be imagined.)

BYU to the BCS?

By Brendan Loy

BCS analyst extraordinare Jerry Palm confirms what I said yesterday: don't sleep on BYU. (Don't sleep with them, either, unless you're married to them. They're very moral!) The Mormons Cougars could end up in the BCS, if they beat San Diego State on Saturday and everything falls their way:

"It looks like BYU has a chance if the following teams lose: USC, Hawaii, Arizona State and two of [the following] - Tennessee, Oregon and Boston College," said Palm, who operates collegebcs.com. "Even then, it's not guaranteed. Better still if all six lose, and BC losing is the least helpful."

If a two-loss team from a mid-major conference qualifies for the BCS, that would be, well, a perfect ending to this craziest of college-football seasons.

Er, well, "perfect" except in the sense that it would involve USC losing to UCLA. Which is to say, not perfect at all. So nevermind.

In women's soccer, a very Brendan Loy bracket

By Brendan Loy

The women's soccer NCAA Tournament has reached the Elite Eight, and an astounding number of schools that I care about are still competing for the championship. Both of my alma maters, USC and Notre Dame, are still alive, as is my original home-state team, UConn. And my two least-favorite universities, UCLA and Duke, are still alive as well. The only thing that could have made the bracket any more Loy-o-riffic would be if my current hometown team, Tennessee, had beaten Portland in the Sweet Sixteen to set up a date with the hated Bruins.

As things stand, it's Portland that must visit UCLA, while USC travels to West Virginia, Notre Dame hosts Duke, and UConn visits Florida State, all on Friday evening. Potentially, we could have a USC-UCLA semifinal on one side of the bracket and a UConn-Notre Dame semifinal on the other. Will the Women of Troy need to beat both of their school's archrivals to win the championship? Heh!

For what it's worth, in the final regular-season coaches' poll, UCLA was #1, Portland #3, USC #9, Notre Dame #11, West Virginia #12, Florida State #14, UConn #24, and Duke unranked. So I guess that means both the Irish and the Trojans will be favored on Friday. Go ND and 'SC, beat Duke and WVU!

USC upsets SIU; three big tests loom

By Brendan Loy

Southern Illinois went to the Sweet 16 last year, and having seen them in person, I can confirm that their success in March was no fluke; they were a very good basketball team. So I'm disinclined to take issue with their preseason ranking of #24, nor with their climb to #19 heading into last night's game against USC. However, perhaps the loss of Jamaal Tatum and Tony Young had more of an impact than the pollsters thought, and as a result, this year's SIU squad is a bit overrated. Either that, or I was wrong to doubt whether USC could live up to the hype, because the Trojans absolutely wiped the floor with the Salukis last night, 70-45, to win the inaugural Anaheim Classic:

USC has won five straight since inexplicably dropping its opener, 96-81 to Mercer. But the real test of the Trojans' resurgence will come with a brutal six-day, three-game stretch at the end of this week and the beginning of next. They host Oklahoma (5-1) on Thursday and #4 Kansas (5-0) on Sunday, then travel to #3 Memphis (5-0) next Tuesday. (Damn, I wish I was going to be in L.A. this weekend. USC-UCLA at the Coliseum on Saturday, then USC-Kansas at the Galen Center on Sunday? That'd be sweet!)

After that, the Trojans will get a bit of a breather, finishing December with a trio of cupcakes (Delaware State, Cal Poly and UC Riverside) before diving headlong into the crucible of the Pac-10 schedule.

But hey, one game at a time, right, Coach Floyd? Fight on! Beat the Sooners!

Hillary & Huma?

By Brendan Loy

The Hillary-Clinton-lesbian-affair-with-Huma-Abedin story, which has been spreading via blogospheric whispers for months, has finally broken on Drudge after making it into print, sort of, in the Times of London.

This comes after the L.A. Times supposedly decided to sit on the story, though some deny that. Regardless, somebody alert Mickey Kaus and Luke Ford: the "Dark Unseen Scandal Star" is coming into view at last!

One thing's for sure: if it's true, then judging purely on physical appearance, Hillary has way better taste in women than Bill. More on the lovely Ms. Abedin here.

P.S. One other thing that's for sure: even if these rumors are true, Bill can't say that Hillary is cheating on him, because according to his definition of sex, it's physically impossible for her to have sex with a woman!

UPDATE: Is the person stoking these rumors about Hillary Clinton... Hillary Clinton?

More on the Hil-&-Huma allegations here.

Nebraska to interview UB's Turner Gill

By Brendan Loy

Is this the beginning of the end for Turner Gill at Buffalo? UB's athletic director has given Nebraska permission to talk to Gill about its head-coaching vacancy. "I'm happy for Turner and his family about getting the opportunity to talk to Nebraska," AD Warde Manuel said. "He's worked extremely hard and deserves this opportunity."

According to the Lincoln Journal-Star, Manuel said the interview will take place "in the next day or so." He added, "I think it's tremendous. Turner is absolutely ready to coach at Nebraska. He's done a great job, an awesome turnaround. Although I would hate to lose him, he would be a great coach there." Earlier, Manuel was quoted as saying, "I don't want him to leave our program. Obviously, I don't. But without a doubt, Turner Gill, if he can do what he’s done here in two years, there's nobody there in Nebraska that could tell me that he's not deserving of a serious, serious look at being the head coach of Nebraska."

It certainly doesn't sound like UB is jumping through hoops to try to keep him around. (Not like they could anyway, really. It's not like they can even pretend to try and match Nebraska dollar for dollar.) And in light of Gill mentor Tom Osborne's comments about the new Huskers coach needing to understand Nebraska's tradition, this is starting to sound like a slam dunk.

If Gill's tenure at Buffalo is over, he certainly went out in style. Buffalo won in overtime at Kent State on Saturday to finish 5-7 -- easily the best season in Buffalo's nine-year Division I-A history. More here and here.

Must. Beat. UCLA.

By Brendan Loy

With one game to go, the UCLA Bruins could still go to the Rose Bowl -- or no bowl at all. It's up to the USC Trojans to make sure it's the latter. Stewart Mandel explains:

Of all the strange postseason scenarios still floating around, I don't think you possibly find one any more bizarre than the fact that the Bruins, who just reached bowl eligibility this weekend, are still technically alive for the Rose Bowl.

Here's the deal: USC (9-2, 6-2 Pac-10) and Arizona State (9-2, 6-2) are currently tied for first in the Pac-10 standings, with the Trojans holding the tiebreaker following last Thursday's win. Oregon (8-3, 5-3) and UCLA (6-5, 5-3) sit a game behind following the Bruins' 16-0 win over the quarterback-depleted Ducks. If surging Arizona (5-6) upends the Sun Devils (not implausible) and Karl Dorrell's Bruins pull another crosstown upset of the Trojans (highly unlikely), it would create either a three-way tie for first between USC, ASU and UCLA, all of which went 1-1 against each other, or a four-way tie with Oregon. In either case, the Bruins win the tiebreaker due to their victory over the Ducks. (If you dare to figure out how that is, read this).

The craziest part of all is, just as easily as the 6-5 Bruins could go to the Rose Bowl, they could also go to no bowl at all if they lose. If Arizona does beat ASU, it would give the Pac-10 seven bowl-eligible teams for six spots and almost assuredly restrict them to one BCS berth. Guess which would be the odd team out in that scenario? Yep -- the same team that's playing for a Rose Bowl berth next week.

USC needs to beat UCLA not just on general principle, not just for pride, not just for revenge, not just for the Roses, not just so I can win another bet against Mike Tran, but for the good of the whole conference. If the Bruins, who lost to Notre Dame and Utah, and who have done nothing in conference play to merit any sort of respect (no, shutting out an Oregon team playing its 26th-string quarterback doesn't count), go to the Rose Bowl, the Pac-10 will be the laughingstock of the country.

So Trojans, for the love of God, beat the Bruins.

P.S. A minor correction to Mandel's analysis after the jump.

Hawaii ranked #12 in BCS

By Brendan Loy

With one week to go in the college-football regular season, Hawaii is finally right where they want to be: #12 in the BCS standings. So, beat Washington and they're BCS-bound, right?

Well, probably. The fly in the ointment is #14 Tennessee. If the Vols beat LSU, they would almost certainly leapfrog Hawaii. It's also possible that #13 Arizona State could jump Hawaii with a win over Arizona, especially if the Warriors win less-than-impressively over the 4-8 Huskies. The Warriors and Sun Devils are really close in the standings at this point.

If Tennessee and/or ASU leapfrogs Hawaii, the Warriors will need somebody (or somebodies) currently ahead of them to fall behind them. #7 LSU might fit the bill, though I'm not sure how far they'd tumble with a loss to UT. Probably just far enough, is my guess. Also, somebody's gotta lose the ACC title game between #6 Virginia Tech and #11 Boston College; BC would certainly fall behind Hawaii with a loss, while VT might or might not. Other possibilities would be Missouri beating #9 Oklahoma and (heaven forbid) UCLA beating #8 USC. The latter scenario could help Hawaii in two ways: by allowing them to jump USC, and by potentially putting them ahead of the Pac-10 champion. If UCLA beats USC and ASU beats Arizona, the Sun Devils would be the conference champions, and it'd be a close call between them and Hawaii. If UCLA and Arizona both win, the Bruins would be the champ (at 7-5 overall...ugh), and would certainly be ranked below Hawaii in the BCS.

Bottom line, if Hawaii beats Washington, the Warriors are probably 90% likely to reach the Sugar Bowl, where they'll play either LSU (if the Tigers beat Tennessee but don't sneak into the title game), Tennessee (if the Vols beat LSU), or Georgia (if LSU beats UT and makes it into the title game). With UConn out of the picture, the Warriors have essentially 0% of going to any other BCS bowl, as all of the other at-large teams will be more attractive to the bowls, and the Sugar Bowl picks last.

P.S. Don't sleep on #19 BYU. If Washington beats Hawaii, UCLA beats USC, Arizona beats ASU, Oregon State beats Oregon, and LSU beats Tennessee, the Cougars would probably be ranked #15 or #16, and ahead of Pac-10 champion UCLA. So the Sugar Bowl would be LSU (or Georgia) against BYU!

Eight teams still alive for BCS title

By Brendan Loy

Missouri is #1 in the new AP poll by a margin of 45 first-place votes to 20, but West Virginia is #1 in the new coaches poll by a margin of 37 to 17 (with 6 first-place votes for Ohio State).

Of course, it doesn't matter who's #1 and who's #2. If the Tigers and Mountaineers both win on Saturday, they'll go to the BCS title game, and they'll decide on the field who deserves to be #1. More significant is who comes after #3 Ohio State in the coaches' poll, since those teams would fighting over the #2 spot in the BCS if Missouri and WVU were to both lose on Saturday.

It goes like this: #4 Georgia (1,232 points), #5 (tied) Kansas (1,161 points), #5 (tied) Virginia Tech (1,161 points), #7 LSU (1,134 points), #8 Oklahoma (1,126 points), #9 USC (1,073 points) and #10 Hawaii (958 points). I have to say, I'm surprised Kansas is still ranked that high; I didn't think the Jayhawks would be in the mix anymore, but they are. Texasyank was right: they could pull a Nebraska, a la 2001. (Though I still doubt it would actually happen.)

Anyway, it would be a hell of an argument among the teams currently ranked #4 through #8 if Mizzou and WVU lose:

• Georgia could claim it's playing the best football right now, but others would point out that they didn't even win their division, a la Nebraska in 2001. And if LSU beats Tennessee, how do you keep out the two-loss conference champion in favor of a two-loss divisional runner-up (that, oh by the way, lost 35-14 to the Vols)? The only reason to favor the Bulldogs over the Tigers is because they lost earlier than LSU did. But is that really a good reason? Also, Georgia has one of the worst losses of the group (at home to a .500 team, South Carolina... if anyone remembers September 8 at this point).

• Kansas could point out that everyone else has two losses, while they only have one. But they, too, have the "didn't win their division" problem, plus they started 11-0 against a very weak schedule and then lost against the first real quality opponent they played. The Jayhawks are in prime position to be leapfrogged.

• Outside of the Top 3, Virginia Tech is the highest-ranked team right now that could potentially win its conference. But can the voters possibly keep the Hokies ahead of LSU, if the Tigers win the SEC, when VT lost 48-7 to LSU back in September? I think VT must hope for Tennessee to beat LSU to have any shot.

• LSU has the 48-7 trump card over Virginia Tech, and the SEC trump card ("champion of the toughest conference in America") over everyone else if they beat Tennessee. But they also suffered a late, high-profile loss, which pollsters hate. If LSU wins, will the voters follow the Kreutz Theorem and leapfrog them ahead of all the non-SEC two-loss teams (and Kansas), or will they continue to punish the Tigers for losing late? LSU needs to root for Virginia Tech to win the ACC, because having that 48-7 win at the forefront of everyone's minds is obviously good for their cause. Other LSU talking points: they played the toughest schedule of the group, and both of their losses were in triple-overtime. Rebuttal: yeah, but a lot of their wins were really close, too. Surrebuttal: well of course they were, because they played the toughest schedule of the group! And the SEC is a war!

• Oklahoma is currently ranked last among the teams seriously competing to take advantage if the Top 2 falter, but they have two advantages: they can make one of those top two falter, by beating Missouri; and in so doing, they can score the highest-profile "quality win" of everyone in the group. On the flip side, like Georgia, they lost to a 6-6 team (Colorado).

I don't think anyone else would really be considered. USC just doesn't have enough of a case to pass Oklahoma or Georgia, even if everybody else loses. Hawaii, right or wrong, is not going to be seriously considered for the #2 spot by the pollsters or the computers, under any circumstances. West Virginia and Missouri won't be able to sneak in the back door after a loss; there are too many other available two-loss contenders. And Boston College, at #12, has too high of a hill to climb, even if the Eagles beat VT.

Personally, I think LSU would be the most deserving if WVU and Mizzou lose and all the two-loss teams win, but that opinion is subject to change depending on how the teams in question look on Saturday.

P.S. Man, wouldn't an eight-team playoff be a great way to settle all this? Just saying!

UPDATE: Rich Tellshow thinks USC will finish ahead of Kansas and Oklahoma if they beat UCLA, and that it could come down to the Trojans vs. the Bulldogs for the #2 spot if Missouri, West Virginia, LSU and Virginia Tech all lose:

If [Mizzou and WVU lose] then LSU could be back with win over UT, with an LSU loss VT would have a claim if they win the ACC, and UGA or USC possibly if LSU and VT lose. I think Kansas is done and OU's computer component will keep them out.

UPDATE 2: Jerry Palm thinks USC has no chance. I tend to agree.

Former CT governor O'Neill dies

By Brendan Loy

Former Connecticut governor William O'Neill, who ran the state for 10 years and 10 days -- including the first nine-plus years of my life -- has died at 77.

"Bill O'Neill was one of the titans of Connecticut politics," said current governor Jodi Rell. "No description of him would be complete without the words 'decency' and 'fairness,' and he understood that government must take its lead from the people it serves." Former state Dem chairman John Droney called O'Neill "the Harry Truman of Connecticut."

More college basketball upsets

By Brendan Loy

Xavier 80, #8 Indiana 65.

#16 Texas 97, #7 Tennessee 78.

And, in progress now, a potential huge upset: BYU 59, #1 North Carolina 58 with 7:54 left. It's on ESPN2. Go Mormons Cougars! BYU won the Holy War in football earlier today, so this would be quite a double-whammy, if they can pull it off.

Meanwhile, in non-upsets, Gonzaga beat Virginia Tech and North Dame beat Youngstown State.

UPDATE: UNC survived the score from BYU.

Missouri dominating Kansas

By Brendan Loy

So far, it's all Chase Daniel & co., and Kirk Herbstreit has already described Kansas as being "exposed." Maybe those cupcakes didn't serve their purpose? Anyway, they're just starting the second half, and it's 14-0 Mizzou.

Earlier, West Virginia gave UConn a good old-fashioned whoopin', 66-21. D'oh! So now WVU is a win over Pitt away from the BCS title game. Now, Pitt isn't very good, but do you think they'll be a little motivated to play their "Backyard Brawl" rivals with a chance to derail their title hopes? Remember what happened to USC against UCLA last year, Mountaineers, and be careful: that could be you. (In which case, hello, Ohio State!)

Also, fUCLA shut out Oregon, which means that if they now turn around and lose to USC next week, the Trojans will be Rose Bowl-bound. Thanks, Bruins!! ... Oregon's loss is also good news for Hawaii, as the Ducks will presumably join Texas in dropping behind the Warriors in the BCS standings. (And frankly, if Kansas keeps looking this bad, they might take enough of a plunge in the polls to fall behind Hawaii as well, especially given the weakness of Kansas's prior schedule, which is almost Hawaii-esque.)

Speaking of USC, wins by Georgia and Oklahoma mean the Trojans' slim national-title hopes are probably dashed. I don't think a two-loss USC would finish ahead of the two-loss Bulldogs or Sooners.

P.S. With regard to Hawaii, assuming Kansas stays ahead of them, I think the two major questions are: 1) will Arizona State stay ahead of them? And 2) will Tennessee leapfrog them? If the answer is "no" to both, I see the Warriors at #12 next week, going into their finale against Washington (unless Hawaii can leapfrog someone based on their performance against Boise State).

Meanwhile, the best hopes for a conference champion to finish ahead of, if the Warriors need it (i.e., if they're between #13 and #16), now come from the Pac-10 (if USC loses to UCLA, triggering bizarre tiebreakers extraordinaire) and, of all places, the SEC (if Tennessee beats LSU and doesn't leapfrog Hawaii). The Big 12 and ACC are now guaranteed to have their champions finish in the Top 14, along with the Big Ten and almost certainly the Big East (even if they lose to Pitt, I don't think West Virginia would fall that far).

UPDATE: Kansas rallied valiantly from a 28-7 third-quarter deficit, but Missouri won 36-28. So it's now Missouri and West Virginia in the driver's seat for the national-championship game, with Ohio State waiting in the wings if either of them falter next week, and mass chaos if both falter. (Ohio State vs. ... Georgia? LSU? Oklahoma? USC? Boston College? Virginia Tech? Kansas?? Hawaii???)

Morality research

By Mike Wiser

Time has a very interesting poll about morality at the moment.  Please go look at it first; it will take you less than 5 minutes to answer it.

(waiting for you to go answer the poll questions)

(no, really, go do so)

(Please?)

I'd heard about this poll before, but this time I get to see the exact scenarios laid out.  My answers, for those who are interested, are: yes, yes, yes, no, no.

In the first scenario, the baby's crying will lead to not only my death, but also to the deaths of others, including itself.  Obviously, you try other means to quiet the baby first: give it something to suck on, rock it, change its diaper, whatever.  But the scenario states that the baby can't be quieted in any other way.  If that baby continues to scream, it's going to die very soon no matter what.  Better that it be just the baby that dies, and not take me and the other refugees with it.  I'm smothering the baby.

In the second scenario, if someone isn't kicked off the lifeboat we're going to capsize and all die.  If one individual is already grievously injured and bound to die soon anyways, and killing him just a little bit sooner preserves my life and those of others, I'm pushing him out of the boat.  I've got a strong survival instinct.

In the third scenario, we have a group of 5 idiots on one train track not paying attention to oncoming vehicles, and 1 individual on another doing the same.  They're all equally stupid, and none of them are guaranteed to die soon if I don't send the train at them.  I therefore bow to the notion that 1 death is better than 5 deaths, and send the train at the lone individual.

In the fourth scenario, we have the same 5 idiots unaware of an oncoming train, but I'm on a bridge over the track with a stranger, and if I push him off the train will stop before it hits the 5 clueless.  In this case, the idiots on the track are more culpable than the guy on the bridge with me, who is entirely blameless.  I'm not going to make him pay the consequences of the idiots being idiots.  I'll yell for them to get out of the way and maybe throw rocks at them if I think I have a chance of getting their attention, but I'm not going to kill an innocent bystander to save them.

In the 5th case, the guy in the catapult is just as innocent as the guy on the bridge.  So, I won't kill him to save 5 idiots.  I'm assuming he's not been sentenced to sit in the catapult as payment for a crime, nor is he being an idiot and playing in a catapult which has obviously been constructed to fling people at oncoming trains.

Of the people who had responded when I wrote this, 70% agreed with me in the first case, 56% in the second, 79% in the 3rd, 60% in the 4th, and 52% in the 5th.  I'm surprised more people are OK with killing the baby than the presumably adult lifeboat passenger, but maybe they care that the baby probably won't really understand its coming death while the lifeboat passenger will.

What are your answers?

Terrail Lambert decapitates Tavita Pritchard

By Brendan Loy

Horrible. Another illegal helmet-to-helmet hit against a quarterback goes uncalled. What the f*** is wrong with these referees? And with college-football referees generally? Good grief.

P.S. Um, but anyway, Go Irish, Beat Farm. It's 14-14, late in the third. Speaking of refs, apparently there was an awful call that robbed ND of a touchdown earlier, though I missed it.

UPDATE: Irish win!

So it's 3-9. Remember "9-3 is not good enough"? ... Still, it could have been worse. Like 2-10.

Ah, well. Next year.

UPDATE 2: Reading this over, I realized it sorta sounds like I'm saying, sarcastically, "Ah, well. Maybe the Irish will got 2-10 next year." That wasn't my intention. I meant "Next year hopefully they'll be better."

Tennessee, Kentucky in triple quadruple OT

By Brendan Loy

It looked like the Wildcats were going to win for sure in the second OT after they intercepted Eric Ainge and just needed a FG to win, but then Tennessee blocked the kick... and looked for a moment like they might run it back for a touchdown, until Kentucky stopped the run by committing what looked like a facemask against the ball-carrier, which was not a penalty "by rule" because Tennessee was on defense in overtime (so I guess a Kentucky player could have pulled out a gun and shot the UT player with the ball, and it would be okay).

Anyway... the SEC really is kind of a war, isn't it?

UPDATE: Tennessee wins! 52-50 in 4OT, and the Vols are SEC East champs! They'll play LSU in the conference championship game in Atlanta.

Go Irish, Beat the Farm!

By Brendan Loy

Notre Dame has a 7-0 lead over Stanford early. BEAT THE DRUNKEN TREES!!!

Meanwhile, in Morgantown, UConn took an early 7-0 lead over West Virginia, but the Mountaineers have rallied and are up 14-7 with 4:14 left in the first quarter. WVU's second touchdown came after a devastating UConn fumble on a punt return deep in their own territory. The Huskies' success this season has been based largely on an excellent turnover margin, and now is definitely not the time to stop taking care of the football, with a BCS berth on the line.

Incidentally, the biggest UConn fans in the country right now are in Columbus, Ohio, as a West Virginia loss would send Ohio State to the national championship game (unless a two-loss SEC champion could leapfrog one-loss Ohio State). In addition, a UConn victory would mean that Hawaii, if they get BCS-eligible, would probably go to the Fiesta Bowl rather than the Sugar Bowl. (The Sugar Bowl picks last, the Fiesta Bowl second-to-last, and I imagine the folks in Glendale would prefer Hawaii to UConn if those were their only two options.)

P.S. Tennessee is beating Kentucky, 31-14. Win, and the Vols clinch the SEC East -- and eliminate Georgia from the SEC race, and hurt the slim national-title hopes of both LSU and Georgia, but virtually guarantee Georgia a BCS at-large berth (if the Bulldogs beat Georgia Tech).

Also, Oklahoma is up 14-7 over Oklahoma State at the end of the first. A Sooner victory would largely eliminate the various truly wild BCS title-game scenarios, since the Big 12 would be guaranteed to produce a highly ranked champion. A hypothetical two-loss, Big 12 champion Oklahoma would represent the "floor" for BCS scenarios; anyone who can't finish the season ranked ahead of them would be eliminated. (Whether that would totally eliminate USC, I'm not entirely sure. The computers don't much like Oklahoma.)

Coaching carousel speeds up

By Brendan Loy

Nebraska coach Bill Callahan has been fired, and Ole Miss coach Ed Orgeron, a former USC assistant, reportedly will be fired momentarily. All this after Texas A&M's Dennis Franchione resigned yesterday.

Gonzaga loses; USC wins, Salukis next

By Brendan Loy

Gonzaga lost to Texas Tech in the Great Alaska Shootout semifinals Friday night, derailing a potential rematch of last year's Preseason NIT final against Butler. Instead, it will be Bobby Knight's Red Raiders who take on Butler tonight (i.e., Saturday), while the Zags will play Virginia Tech in the consolation game.

Meanwhile, USC edged Miami of Ohio in the Anaheim Classic semis to set up an intriguing championship game against #19-ranked Southern Illinois. That'll be a real test for the Trojans, Sunday at 9:00 PM Eastern on ESPN2.

Oh, and in the Legends Classic semifinals, Tennessee nipped West Virginia to set up the men's version of the game Becky and I saw last week on the women's side: UT vs. UT, Burnt Orange vs. Tennessee Orange. That's right, it's #7 Tennessee against #15 Texas, at 4:00 PM today on Versus.

Warriors, Broncos battle for WAC & BCS

By Brendan Loy

Hawaii and Boise State are underway in their much-hyped battle for the WAC title and a possible BCS berth. It's 13-7 Hawaii early in the second quarter. (Boise blocked the PAT after the Warriors' second touchdown.)

UPDATE: Very entertaining game so far. Boise State has scored 10 unanswered points, and leads 27-26 with 6:52 left in the third quarter.

UPDATE 2: Now it's 39-27 Hawaii heading into the fourth quarter.

Unlike the Broncos, the undefeated Warriors, if they win tonight and beat Washington next weekend, have a real shot at finishing in the Top 12 and qualifying automatically for a BCS bowl -- now likely the Sugar Bowl against LSU! -- without the need to finish ahead of a big-conference champ or squeeze in because of a glut of SEC and Big 12 teams in the Top 14. And to that end, Texas's loss to Texas A&M earlier today is very helpful.

UPDATE 3: Hawaii 39, Boise State 27, final. The Warriors are WAC champions, and they're 11-0 with Washington coming to town next week.

Bearden wins!

By Brendan Loy

28-14. Clinched it on a pick 6 with about two minutes left. Crowd rushed the field as Bulldogs beat rival Farragut for the first time in nine tries and advance to the semifinals.

Friday Night Lights, playoff rivalry edition

By Brendan Loy

Bearden and Farragut just started the second half, tied 7-7. It's standing-room-only craziness in the crowd.

#1 LSU in trouble loses!

By Brendan Loy

Arkansas leads LSU, 14-6, with 9:40 left in the third quarter. Darren McFadden just rushed 73 yards for a touchdown; he has 151 yards on 17 carries today, making him the first 100-yard rusher against the Tigers this season.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M is leading Texas 10-0. A loss by the Longhorns would eliminate the juicy possibility of a USC-Texas Fiesta Bowl, but on the bright side, it would boost the Trojans' extremely slim national-title hopes. (Oklahoma would then need to lose to Oklahoma State tomorrow, but win the Big 12 title game next Saturday. And lots of other teams would need to lose, specifically LSU, West Virginia, Georgia, Virginia Tech and Oregon. It also wouldn't hurt if Boston College loses to Miami but then wins the ACC title game... and if LSU loses twice. If all of the above happens, and the Trojans beat the Bruins, that would leave two-loss USC, possibly two-loss UConn, one-loss non-conference-champ Kansas, and perhaps undefeated WAC champ Hawaii arguing over who gets to play Ohio State in New Orleans, and I think the Trojans would win the argument.)

UPDATE: Arkansas wins!! Final score: 50-48 in triple OT.

I had a feeling LSU was going to lose, either today or in the SEC title game. As I wrote last night, it was foolish for anyone analyzing the BCS to just assume the Tigers would win out, as had seemingly become the norm. LSU has been living on the edge all season, and as I put it last week, "I think the Tigers are a bit like Hillary Clinton: they've been at or near the top of the polls for long enough that they are starting to feel inevitable, but they haven't actually done anything to establish that they're head-and-shoulders above everyone else." Tonight, they were brought back down to earth.

That said, don't believe anyone who says "LSU's title hopes are dead." They're not. All the Tigers need is for West Virginia to lose (to UConn tomorrow or to Pitt next Saturday) and Oklahoma to win the Big 12, and they'll be right back in the hunt.

If Kentucky beats Tennessee tomorrow and Georgia beats Georgia Tech, the SEC title game next Saturday would feature the nation's two highest-ranked two-loss teams, LSU and Georgia... and if UConn upsets WVU tomorrow, the two-loss SEC champ would only need Oklahoma to beat Kansas or Missouri to potentially earn a trip to New Orleans to play Ohio State. That scenario would create a debate between Oklahoma and the LSU-Georgia winner, and perhaps USC and Virginia Tech if they win out and win their conference titles, and one-loss, non-champion Kansas. But I think the SEC champ would get the better of the argument, in part because of the Kreutz Theorem ("when [pollsters] rank SEC teams, they automatically subtract a loss from their record") and in part because, well, the SEC champ honestly would probably be the best choice in that situation, unless you want to make an argument for undefeated Hawaii. Particularly if the champ is LSU, they'll be able to say: 1) they won the nation's toughest conference, and 2) their two losses both came in triple-overtime. That's a more compelling case than any of the others would be able to make. So I think LSU is still effectively fourth in the BCS pecking order, behind the winner of tomorrow's Kansas-Missouri game (#1), West Virginia (#2) and Ohio State (#3).

P.S. Oh, and also, Texas lost! Woohoo!!

Black Friday

By Brendan Loy

I just got back from my first-ever excursion into the early-morning madness of "Black Friday." There were a couple of items I wanted to buy, for myself and others, that were on really good sales, so I braved the lines at Office Depot, CompUSA and Radio Shack. The store employees were pretty harried (especially at Office Depot), but they were doing their best, and my fellow customers were quite friendly. (Hey, it's the South.) A couple of the things I wanted to buy had sold out by the time I got to them, but others weren't. Overall, it was a reasonably successful shopping trip, and in any event, it was kinda fun to participate in the grand insanity that millions indulge in every year on the day after Thanksgiving. Also, because I was up so early (I left the apartment shortly after 5:30 AM), I got to see Venus, Saturn and Mars -- a very bright, very red Mars -- in the early-morning sky, which I don't often have the opportunity to gaze at. Oh, and while waiting in line for a store to open, I ran into a lawyer who works with the ex-clerk who preceded me at my current job! Small world.

Did any of y'all brave the Black Friday crowds?

Beat the Sun Devils!

By Brendan Loy

"It's motherf---in' game day. We're the motherf---in' Trojans."

Fight on USC! Beat ASU!

UPDATE: Trojans lead 17-7 with 3:44 to go in the first quarter.

Ridiculous unsportsmanlike-conduct penalty against Sedrick Ellis just now. The NCAA really needs to reign in the trend among referees to try and take all the emotion out of college football with bulls**t calls like that. It happened to Notre Dame's John Carlson against Duke last week (details here), and this one was equally absurd. Good lord, football is exciting, the players get emotional sometimes, and they celebrate. Big freakin' deal. Unless they're jawing in the opposing players' faces or something, it shouldn't be a penalty. Let them play, you a**holes.

Also, the BCS "analysis" by the ESPN announcing crew and Charles Barkley was insipid. Anyone who thinks it's even a question whether ASU will be "in the conversation" if they win out suffers from a failure of imagination and foresight. In this of all seasons, can't these people wrap their minds around the reality that the landscape changes from week to week, and of course the Sun Devils will be "in the conversation" if they win out? Also, why does everyone just assume that LSU is going to win out?!? LSU has two tough games left, and no one can take anything for granted this season. All the talk is about Kansas/Missouri and West Virginia fighting for the last spot. People, they might both get in. Or they could both lose, along with LSU, and the title game could be Ohio State vs. Arizona State. Or Ohio State vs. Georgia. Or Ohio State vs. USC (!). Lots of crazy things are still possible. It's just plain stupid to look at the current BCS standings and assume nothing will change.

UPDATE 2: It's 27-17 USC at halftime.

UPDATE 3: WOOOOOO!!!! 44-17, late in the third quarter.

I think it's safe to say "Beat the Bruins" with this playing of Conquest. :)

UPDATE 4: Okay, I know the game is over, but how the hell is it "unsportsmanlike conduct" for Sedrick Ellis to briefly and unobtrusively celebrate a sack, but Rudy Carpenter can get in the referee's face about a call, yelling and screaming at him like a second-grader throwing a temper tantrum, and not get flagged? These refs are HORRIBLE.

UPDATE 5: Trojans win, 44-24. Pete Carroll is 23-0 in November.

BEAT THE BRUINS!!!!

P.S. All this talk about USC needing Oregon to lose to reach the Rose Bowl sort of misses the point, in a certain sense. If USC beats UCLA next weekend, they will go to a BCS bowl. The only question is which one: Rose or Fiesta? Frankly, I actually prefer the potential Fiesta Bowl matchup with Texas to a Rose Bowl pre-match with Ohio State, the Trojans' second opponent next season. But regardless, while USC may not control its own Rose Bowl destiny, it does control its own BCS destiny, as a practical matter. I don't think I heard anyone on ESPN mention that all night.

Gobble gobble

By Brendan Loy

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

And remember, if you're feeling sleepy after dinner today, don't blame the turkey.

UPDATE: Thanksgiving Dinner a la Becky:

'Twas a yummy feast!! And it's not over yet. I'm particularly looking forward to eating those pumpkin pies. :)

Newington beats Wethersfield on field goal with :26 left!

By Brendan Loy

For the first time since 1993, the Newington High School football Indians won at Wethersfield this morning, beating their annual Thanksgiving Day rivals by a score of 9-7. Woohoo! [UPDATE: According to commenter Dave, the Indians won on a field goal with 26 seconds left. Wow! It was a 31-yard kick by quarterback/kicker Bobby Hemmann. More than 2,000 people were in attendance to watch the most dramatic NHS-WHS ending in many years.]

The Newington victory breaks a six-game Eagles home winning streak against the Indians that began my freshman year at NHS. Overall, counting games at both schools, NHS has now taken 3 of the last 4 after losing ten straight to WHS.

If not for Masuk's 17-14 comeback win over Newtown last night, Newington would be celebrating more than just a win over Wethersfield right now -- they'd also be celebrating a spot in the state playoffs. Instead, the Indians finish #5 in Class L, and they'll have to be satisfied with a 9-1 record, Newington's best winning percentage in 27 years. (Details after the jump.)

NHS is one of just three teams in the state to finish with one loss yet be denied a playoff berth. The others are Avon and Jonathan Law of Class M. Twelve other one-loss teams are still alive for a state championship.

Newington's only loss was a 31-6 defeat at Bristol Eastern on October 20. The Lancers finished 10-0 and are the #1 seed in Class M.

It'll be interesting to see how Newington does next season without superstar tailback Nathan Pagan, a 5-foot-9, 185-pound senior who is being recruited by several Division I-AA colleges. Coming into the Wethersfield game, Pagan had 1,816 yards and 32 touchdowns on 232 carries this season, and he ranks third all-time in Connecticut for both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in his career. His arrival at NHS directly coincided with the Indians' return to glory: they were 13-89-2 (.135) during the decade before he enrolled, then 31-9-1 (.768) during his four-year career. Will the 2008 season, the first of the post-Pagan era, be a return to the bad old days, or will Newington be able to maintain the momentum of the past four years? Only time will tell.

For now, I'm just glad they beat Wethersfield. I think a recitation of the fight song would be in order, eh?

We're the boys of Newington High
The best team on the field
And we are the boys that do or die
The team that will not yield
(Rah! Rah! Rah!)
With our colors gold and blue
We're out to win this game
'Cuz we are the boys that
Fight! Right! Through!
Bring Newington High to fame!

Turkey, you're doing a heckuva job!

By Brendan Loy

It's Thanksgiving, which means it's time for the annual presidential turkey pardoning:

You know, when President Clinton was in office, a turkey had to donate $5,000 to his presidential library to get a pardon.

P.S. The Washington Post has an article on the history of the turkey-pardoning tradition, which apparently doesn't go back nearly as far as is annually reported. (Hint: 1989, not 1947. Bush, not Truman.)

UPDATE: Welcome, InstaPundit readers! I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving.

Hunter of Angels

By JLR

Torii Hunter, long the only jewel in the struggling Twins' offensive lineup, has jumped ship to Anaheim (I refuse to call them the "Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim"--Aside from being geographically incorrect, it's a mouthful to say, and quite annoying).

What does this mean?  Now Vlad Guerrero will have another bat to back up his own, and the Angels will have a fourth spectacular outfielder.  This may lead to platooning a DH, or it might lead to a trade (in the article, there's talk about sending Gary Matthews, Jr. to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada--I just hope that Peter Angelos tries get more from the Angels than just Matthews--not that Matthews is bad, but that Angelos sucks the sweat off a dead man's balls when it comes to owning and operating a baseball team, so they need all the help they can get).

Also, defensively-strong utility player (though he mostly plays 2B) for the Padres, Geoff Blum, adds his glove to the field in Houston, which lost Craig Biggio to retirement this year.

Happy Thanksgiving, all, and remember: just because it's cold out doesn't mean that baseball is over.  Baseball is never over.  Just remember that while you watch Green Bay and Dallas slaughter Detroit and New York today.

Newington eliminated from playoff hunt

By Brendan Loy

Masuk's 17-14 victory over Newtown, combined with losses by East Hartford (to Manchester) and Windsor (to Bloomfield), have mathematically eliminated Newington from playoff contention before the Indians even take the field against Wethersfield in their annual Thanksgiving Day rivalry tomorrow morning.

Including "bonus points" from games that affect the playoff contenders' strength of schedule, Masuk, currently ranked #4 in Class L, is guaranteed to finish with a point average of no worse than 124, while #5-ranked Newington's maximum possible average is 123.

In addition to being stuck behind Masuk, the Indians also cannot leapfrog #1 Bunnell or #2 Staples, even if either loses tomorrow. Bunnell can finish with an average of no worse than 145.6; Staples is guaranteed at least a 123.3 average. #3 Conard, which has finished its season, can do no worse than its current 126 average.

So the Indians are out of the state championship hunt. That sucks. With star tailback Nathan Pagan a senior, you had to think, or at least hope, that maybe this was their year. But as it turns out, their one loss of the season -- a 31-6 setback at undefeated Class M power Bristol Eastern on October 20 -- was too much to overcome, as too many other Class L teams finished either unbeaten or with one loss, and all of them had stronger schedules than Newington.

But there's still plenty to play for tomorrow. The Wethersfield game is always important, regardless of any outside implications, and in this case the Indians are looking for their first victory at Wethersfield since 1993, as I mentioned previously. Also, with a win, Newington would finish the season 9-1 -- their best season, judging by win-loss percentage, since they won the state championship at 11-1 in 1980.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

-- Dutch police arrest Joran van der Sloot on suspicion of involvement in the killing of Natalee Holloway in Aruba, prosecutor tells AP.

Notre Dame ranked #1 in football!

By Brendan Loy

Well, sort of. (Hat tip: BK.)

P.S. Heh.

Tragedy in East Tennessee

By Brendan Loy

Two nearby Knoxville suburbs, Loudon (home of Jay and Ashley) and Maryville, are reeling from a car accident Monday night that killed 25-year-old Shawn Bowers, an assistant football coach at Division III Maryville College, and left 25-year-old Trey Lefler and 24-year-old Matt Lambert in critical condition. This is all too reminiscent of the numerous tragedies that have struck Newington in recent years, striking down young people in the prime of life. Here's hoping and praying for a full recovery for Lefler and Lambert.

Rollins, A-Rod MVPs

By JLR

The National League named Jimmy Rollins (SS-PHI) the NL MVP for 2007, following the American League's naming of Alex Rodriguez (3B-NYY) their MVP on Monday.

CFB road-tripper arrested in Texas

By Brendan Loy

Remember Jonathan Tu, the USC fan and blogger on a cross-country, stadium-by-stadium college-football tour, who Jay and I met up with for the Tennessee-Arkansas game 10 days ago? Well, he got arrested in College Station, Texas on Monday, trying to sneak into Texas A&M's Kyle Field. I kid you not.

Left: Jon in Tennessee. Right: Jon in Texas.

Well, hey, it'll make for an interesting chapter in his book.

25 years ago today...

By Brendan Loy

...this happened:

Longer clip (without background music, and without helpful camera-zoom enhancement) here.

You can read stories about the 25th anniversary here, here and here.

These dudes can ball.

By Jay Johnson

Granted, it's against Middle Tennessee State, but still. 

MTSU 21- UT 61 at the half. 

JaJuan Smith has 26 on his own.  At the half.

This is a team that people in Westwood, Chapel Hill, etc., should be very, very concerned about.

UPDATE: Final 109-40.  That was with the Vols sleepwalking through the second half.

UPDATE #2: The basketball dudes from Westwood look like they are being coached by Karl Dorrell.  The fUCLA hoopsters are trailing Michigan St. by around 10 (as they have most of the game) a few minutes into the 2d half.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: fUCLA pulled it out. Nick Saban described it as a comeback on par with American forces in the Pacific rallying to defeat imperial Japan. :) Anyway, by beating Sparty, UCLA just barely accomplished something that puts them in elite company alongside Grand Valley State. Congrats, Bruins! ;)

Also in the Pac-10, #11 Oregon was stunned by St. Mary's. Maybe Gonzaga won't be the only at-large candidate from the WCC this season!

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

-- Polygamous-sect leader Warren Jeffs is sentenced to five years to life in prison for arranging the marriage of a minor, AP reports.

Nick Saban is not at all hyperbolic

By Brendan Loy

Taking a page out of Andrew's playbook, Alabama coach Nick Saban attempted to motivate his team Monday by comparing the Crimson Tide's loss to Louisiana-Lafayette with 9/11 and Pearl Harbor. Heh.

But what would that make Michigan's loss to Appalachian State? Antietam?

P.S. Holocaust-tastic!

P.P.S. I don't know what everyone is so upset about. We all already knew that SEC football is a war! :)

CBS News writers authorize strike

By Victoria Lopez

The Writers Guild of America (WGA) announced Monday that news writers, graphic artists and other CBS news staff members working in the television and radio news departments voted to authorize a work stoppage.  The CBS news writers have been working without a contract since April 1st of 2005 and have not met at the negotiating table with CBS since January when the WGA rejected CBS's "final" offer.

Down the street, an epic Friday-night clash looms

By Brendan Loy

Back in September, the football team at nearby Bearden High School here in West Knoxville lost to archrival Farragut High School for the eighth straight time, 35-28 in 2 OTs. Although I didn't go, it was an epic Friday-night football clash by all accounts -- and now it's going to have a sequel, in the state playoffs this Friday night.

Meanwhile, back home in Connecticut, the Newington Indians are on the playoff bubble. They need to hope Newtown beats Masuk tomorrow night, and then the Indians must take care of business on Thanksgiving Day against their archrival, Wethersfield.

More on both Bearden and Newington after the jump.

While we are on the subject,

By dcl

Shall we discuss Air Force One also?

A very serious problem

By dcl

First off, we shall admit that the scientific basis for this survey is a little soft, that being said, I should think that when such a high percentage of students at a school of NYU's caliber would be willing to give up the underpinnings of freedom, liberty, and democracy for so cheap that we do have a very serious problem in this country and we have far too many people that take what we have for granted. It truly boggles the mind that people could hold the rights of citizenship so cheap... Read the article in the NYU student newspaper.

Our little cantaloupe

By Brendan Loy

Becky and I learned two very important things at our childbirth class tonight. One, the hospital has Wi-Fi. And two, the TVs there get ESPN and ESPN2! :)

Hey, just because we're having our firstborn doesn't mean we have to miss the Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27), the Gonzaga-Tennessee game (Dec. 29), the Outback Bowl (Jan. 1), or any of the other ESPN Family of Networks games that we might want to watch! And yes, I do mean "we." Believe it or not, it was Becky who initially asked the question! This is why I love being married to a sports fan. Though somehow, I don't think she'll take it too well if, when she tells me she's starting another contraction and needs me to breathe with her, I respond, "Just a second, honey, it's 4th and 3!"

Anyway, it has been pointed out that I've been lax in my what-size-fruit-is-the-baby updates recently. Far be it for me to deprive my readers of this crucial information, so here's a lightning-round update: four weeks ago, she weighed about as much as a head of cabbage; three weeks ago, she was the equivalent of four navel oranges; two weeks ago, a large jicama; last week, a pineapple; and now, as of today, a cantaloupe.
 

Aw, it almost looks like she's smiling! ;) Anyway, here's a bit more from the BabyCenter article:

Your baby now weighs about 4 3/4 pounds (like your average cantaloupe) and is almost 18 inches long. Her fat layers — which will help regulate her body temperature once she's born — are filling her out, making her rounder. Her skin is also smoother than ever. Her central nervous system is maturing and her lungs are continuing to mature as well.

Everything is going fine, by the way. I know I haven't been posting as many baby updates recently, but y'all shouldn't read anything negative into that; it's the result of both my limited free time and Becky's and my mutual choice not to blog about every little thing. That's something to remember going forward, too. I have no idea how much, if at all, I'll blog when Becky is in labor, or when we'll post any sort of announcement here once the baby is born. That's something Becky and I will decide between the two of us, but in any event, you definitely shouldn't assume that no news is bad news, nor worry about any abrupt halt to updates that might occur. Needless to say, the blog will not be my top priority, so please don't assume that any deviation from my usual pattern of minute-by-minute posting is cause for concern. Just stay tuned; when the time comes, you guys will get the good news. And the baby pool result. :)

Ten years ago

By Brendan Loy

Yesterday and today mark the 10th anniversary of a pair of tragedies that anyone who was at Newington High School at the time remembers well: the unrelated deaths, on consecutive days, of junior Bob Aniello and freshman Jen Partridge. Back in 1997, I made a memorial website for Bob and Jen, which is still online.

Bob (or "BoB," as he was widely known) was a classmate of mine, and a friend. He lived in Hartford but was bused to school in Newington, which was unusual because he was white; most of the "Project Concern" kids, like most Hartford residents generally, were black or Hispanic. Bob once joked that he could cross the street in Hartford without looking, and traffic would stop for him, because people "don't want to kill the last white kid in Hartford." :)

Me and Bob at an NHS football game.

Alas, Bob wasn't impervious to his own demons. He committed suicide on Tuesday night, November 18, 1997 -- a total shock to everyone who knew him. The school was in stunned mourning all day Wednesday after the news broke... and then things got even worse. That afternoon, Jen -- who I didn't know personally, but who shared a lot of mutual friends with Bob -- was hit by a car while riding her bike, and killed.

Needless to say, it was a terrible, terrible week at NHS. The deaths were bookended by a pair of nonfatal car accidents involving NHS kids, one of them quite serious and involving two close friends of mine (one of whom was also very close to Bob), another less serious but on school grounds Friday morning, mere minutes before the principal was to address the school about the week's tragedies. There were also unverified rumors of other tragedies -- e.g., a janitor suffering a heart attack -- and fears of "copycat" suicides. It felt like the whole world was crashing down around us; people were talking about the school being "cursed." A week that had begun with normal high-school concerns -- I remember my friend Angela off-handedly saying on Monday morning that she hoped she could "survive this week," meaning get all her work done -- ended with the trauma of Bob's wake after school on Friday, and his memorial service that night.

Hard to believe it's been ten years since all that happened. I vividly recall that Wednesday morning, November 19, 1997; I was in Dr. Pilotte's chemistry class when someone asked me if I'd heard about Bob, and I said no, and they told me he'd killed himself the night before. I spent much of the rest of the class staring, in numb disbelief, at a poster of a frog on Dr. Pilotte's desk. (I always hated that frog, for the rest of the school year.) I remember getting home from school that day, my dad asking me how my day had been, and responding, "Terrible." I didn't even know how to put it into words. And then I also vividly remember the phone call later that night, around 10:30 PM, with the rumor that somebody else had died (we didn't yet know who), and watching the 11 o'clock news as WFSB's Dennis House reported that an NHS freshman had been hit by a car. But which freshman? I didn't find out until the next morning.

Over the weekend, as I was sorting through a box of old photos from both high school and college, it occurred to me that when I look back on my NHS and USC experiences, I tend to mentally compartmentalize them into "before" and "after" periods, in each case defined by a tragic event in the fall of my junior year. College, of course, is split into pre-9/11 and post-9/11. But just as profoundly, high school is split into pre-11/18 and post-11/18.

It's cliché to say it, but I lost a bit of my innocence that week, and nothing ever seemed quite the same afterwards, because sudden, tragic deaths of friends and loved ones had become a real possibility, not just something that happens on TV or in the movies, or to other people. Ten years ago, it happened to all of us at NHS. (And it's happened far too often since. As my dad wrote after a similar string of tragedies two Novembers ago, "Bob Aniello. Jen Partridge. Christina Guyon. Sarah LeFoll. Brendan Horan. Coach Richard Hastings. Master Police Officer Pete Lavery. NHS Resource Officer Ciara McDermott." Also Elizabeth Carlson, Chris Kotch and Joe Michalski. And, more recently, Daniel Gorski, Jon Calderone, Nick Tine, Tim Hazelton, and Kerri Donlin. Terrible tragedies all. So many young people, taken too soon -- four of them from my graduating class alone, Bob included.)

Anyway... rest in peace, BoB and Jen.

The off-season continues...

By JLR

So here are some of the more noteworthy updates from around the MLB (yes, this is still the same person with posts about baseball, but for personal reasons, I've changed my posting name ... Brendan, if there's an issue, please call me!)

For starters, neither A-Rod nor Steriod Barry have been signed yet, though the Yankees are supposedly talking to Rodriguez again (which, from a PR standpoint, makes both the team and the player look bad).  The rumor is that if the deal goes through, he'll make about $275 mil over the next 10 seasons.

But the big news of the day ...

Cyclone's toll likely to reach five figures

By Brendan Loy

The picture gets bleaker and bleaker in Bangladesh, where aid agencies are now estimating a final death toll from Cyclone Sidr between 10,000 and 15,000.

Beginning of the end

By David K.

Michigan coach Lloyd Carr will announce his retirement Monday after 13 seasons at the helm of the Wolverines. Carr had early success, including a 1997 National Championship and a 5-1 record against rival Ohio State through 2000, but in recent years the Maize and Blue have struggled, dropping four straight to the Buckeyes for the first time ever and becoming the first ranked team ever to lose to a I-AA opponent.

Speculation is that LSU coach Les Miles, a former Bo Schembechler player, would be the top choice to replace Carr, but a clause in his contract with the Tigers would cost him $1.5 million for fleeing to Ann Arbor. In addition, there are rumors that Carr, who still carries a significant amount of influence, is not favorable towards Miles.

Raising the banner

By Brendan Loy

They just raised the Lady Vols' championship banner here at Thompson-Boling Arena. As a Nutmegger, I'm not entirely sure how I feel about this. :) But I have no qualms about saying: Go Tennessee, Beat
Texas!

Sidr death toll over 2,000

By Brendan Loy

The death toll in Bangladesh from Cyclone Sidr is now over 2,000, with "several thousand" still missing.

Dr. Jeff Masters has a helpful map of the storm's path and the population density of the surrounding areas. He predicts that "the death toll from Sidr will go much higher, making the storm the deadliest tropical cyclone the world has seen since Hurricane Mitch of 1998." Mitch killed 9,000 people in Hondruas.

Don't look now, but...

By Brendan Loy

...it's Texas Tech 27, Oklahoma 7 with 9:18 left in the second quarter, and OU's starting quarterback, Sam Bradford, is out of the game. Shades of Oregon/Dixon?

An upset by the Red Raiders would be great news for West Virginia, Ohio State and Arizona State, as they could then root for the Big 12 South champ -- be it Oklahoma or Texas -- to beat next week's Kansas-Missouri winner in the conference championship game, thus taking the Big 12 out of the BCS title picture entirely. (Sorry, Kansas, but a one-loss Jayhawks squad would be behind all the other one-loss teams in the pecking order, and possibly also two-loss Georgia, Virginia Tech and USC.)

UPDATE: I'm glad OU is going to lose, but how was that not a touchdown?

UPDATE 2: Texas Tech wins, 34-27. They are the eleventh unranked team to knock off a Top 5 team this season!

Next week: #2 Kansas vs. #3 Missouri! In football! LOL!

P.S. For those keeping track at home, here's an update on USC's slim national-championship hopes.

College football: around the country

By Brendan Loy

First things first: Notre Dame 28, Duke 7, final. WOOO!!!! Finally, a home win for the Irish!!!

Meanwhile, here in Knoxville, the Tennessee Volunteers rallied from 15 points down in the fourth quarter to edge in-state rival Vanderbilt, 25-24, and retain control of the SEC East. If the Vols win at Kentucky next week, they'll take on LSU in Atlanta for the SEC championship. If Kentucky wins, the title game will be LSU vs. Georgia instead. (Georgia beat Kentucky today, 24-13.) No offense to the Vols, but given the way the Bulldogs have been playing, I think the Tigers (who beat Ole Miss 41-24 to defend their #1 ranking) will be rooting for Tennessee next week.

In the Big East, UConn's 30-7 romp of Syracuse, combined with Rutgers's 20-16 win over Pitt, guaranteed that next week's West Virginia-UConn game will decide the conference title. The only question remaining is who it'll be deciding between. If West Virginia beats Cincinnati tonight, the Mountaineers and Huskies will play a de facto championship game, with the winner going to the BCS. It would be the second straight year WVU has hosted such a game (they beat Rutgers last year). [CORRECTION: The previous sentence is wrong. WVU did host Rutgers in last year's finale, but by winning, the Mountaineers delivered the Big East championship to Louisville.] If, on the other hand, Cincy pulls the upset tonight, West Virginia will be the Bearcats' proxy warrior next week; a WVU win in that circumstance would mean a Cincinnati title. Either way, UConn is one road win away from an utterly improbable trip to either the Orange or Sugar Bowl. Unfortunately, the Huskies haven't won a road game of any significance all year.

Out in the Big 12, Kansas and Missouri survived the upset bug that has bitten many teams before "showdown" games this year -- think Florida the week before the LSU game, Texas and Oklahoma the week before the Red River Shootout, Ohio State and Michigan last week -- as both won easily today, 45-7 over Iowa State and 49-32 over Kansas State, respectively. So now the archrival Jayhawks and Tigers, neither of whom have won a Big 12 North title in football before, will meet next Saturday for all the marbles. Winner gets Oklahoma in the conference title game a week later, assuming Oklahoma takes care of business in the mean time. (The Sooners can clinch the Big 12 South with a win at Texas Tech tonight. But watch out -- Oklahoma isn't technically ranked #2 yet, but they know they'll be #2 in the new rankings if they win, so that might be enough for the #2 curse to strike!)

As for the Big Ten, Ohio State is once again the champion after beating Michigan 14-3. The Buckeyes will go to the Rose Bowl barring a series of upsets that lands them in the championship game, which could happen -- though I think Arizona State is probably ahead of them in the pecking order, and so, I suspect, is Georgia, despite the Bulldogs' two losses, if Tennessee loses next week, Georgia wins, and then beats LSU for the SEC title. ... Also in the Big Ten, Illinois won over Northwestern, staking their claim on a possible BCS at-large bid. If there are enough upsets above them, the Illini may be able to sneak into the Top 14 by season's end.

Nothing of any significance is happening today in the Pac-10, in terms of the conference race, with Oregon having lost on Thursday night and both USC and ASU idle in anticipation of their Thanksgiving showdown. However, Cal's slide into oblivion continues as Washington picked up its second conference win at the Bears' expense, 37-23. It's a shame the Huskies weren't able to pull out either of their recent close losses (against Arizona or Oregon State), because if they had, they'd be heading into next week's Apple Cup with a shot at bowl-eligibility still alive (though they'd then have had to upset Hawaii in Hawaii the following week).

Last but not least (okay, maybe least), in the ACC, Clemson plays Boston College tonight for the Atlantic Division title. Who will be their ACC title-game opponent? That will be decided by next week's Virginia-Virginia Tech game. Which means that, if West Virginia beats Cincy tonight, next week will feature three head-to-head, BCS conference- or division-deciding games. (UConn-WVU, Kansas-Missouri, and Virginia-Virginia Tech.) Four if you count Boise State-Hawaii, which is now officially all set after Boise crushed Idaho, 58-14.

Multimedia message

By Weston Cross

Touchdown buffalo!

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Buffalo trails Bowling Green early in the fourth quarter, 31-17. C'mon, Bulls!

UPDATE 2: Buffalo loses. :( They are eliminated from any possibility of a MAC title, a bowl bid, or a .500 season.

Are you ready for some football?

By Brendan Loy

Specifically, some #95 vs. #103, 1-9 vs. 1-9, worst-nationally-televised-game-in-history football? It's the Duke Super Bowl, and it's a half-hour away. GOOOO IRISH!!!! BEEEEAT DUKE!!!! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, BEAT DUKE!

UPDATE: "Let's be honest, this is some bad football." --NBC announcer. It's 0-0, late in the second quarter.

UPDATE 2: Notre Dame scored two late touchdowns off Duke fumbles, and it's 14-0 Irish at halftime.

Hawaii survives Nevada scare

By Brendan Loy

Hawaii, sans Colt Brennan (mostly), escaped Reno with a 28-26 win over Nevada last night, thanks to a 45-yard field goal with 11 seconds left (or rather, two 45-yard field goals, as Nevada's coach pulled the timeout trick to force the Warriors' Dan Kelly to kick it twice).

Now, if Boise State can take care of business against Idaho this afternoon, next Friday night's Broncos-Warriors matchup -- with not just a WAC title, but a possible BCS berth, on the line -- will be all set. And Brennan is expected to be back for that one.

So, go Boise... and go Michigan!! (The Wolverines, who could clear the WAC champion's path to the BCS with a win over Ohio State, trail 7-3 at halftime.)

Dixon done

By David K.

Oregon quarterback and Heisman hopeful Dennis Dixon is done for the season after tearing his anterior-cruciate ligament in Thursday's game against Arizona. Dixon will need to have surgery with a recovery time of six months.

Need to pass a bar exam?

By Jay Johnson

Well, if you actually failed, and really wanted to pass instead, I'd say your best bet is to be the daughter of a South Carolina Judge, a law clerk for a Judge (makes you wonder about the hiring process for clerks, huh?), or otherwise be related to someone in South Carolina politics.  Then, I'm pretty sure you'd get your failing grade changed to passing by the Supreme Court.

I'm not licensed in South Carolina, so I don't know anything about the Courts or the judicial process there.  This smells really, really bad for the South Carolina Supreme Court to me.  This is the kind of conduct that brings a very bad negative impression of lawyers to foster bad stereotypes.  It's also the kind of thing that really pisses me off in general.

The bar exam is hard as hell for a reason.  It makes sure that the people that pass the thing are at least minimally competent.  For those who busted ass to prepare and passed, it's a big time slap in the face to just change a "fail" to a "pass" because of that person's parentage.

Blame Canada Ryan Leaf

By Brendan Loy

Oregon's loss is all Ryan Leaf's fault. Heh.

Also: "Remember the implications of this: because of the injury to Dennis Dixon’s knee, we might see literally dozens of football players suffer career-ending injuries in their attempt to carry a victorious Mark Mangino off the field in New Orleans this January."

(For the uninitiated, that would be this Mark Mangino, he of the many cupcakes. h/t.)

UPDATE: Dennis Dixon is out for the season. DAMN YOU, RYAN LEAF!!!

Disaster in Bangladesh: death toll at 500 and rising from Cat. 4 Cyclone Sidr

By Brendan Loy

Remember the tropical cyclone that I said was "threaten[ing] massive loss of life" along the Bengal Bay coast? Well, at least 500 people are dead in Bangladesh -- and because these are early reports, and this is the third world, I have no doubt that the number will rise significantly.

Cyclone Sidr didn't weaken at the last minute, as was predicted, and instead made landfall as a strong Category 4 with 150 mph winds, according to Dr. Jeff Masters. But the real problem isn't the wind; it's the water. As Dr. Masters points out, "The big killer in Bangladesh cyclones is the storm surge. The triangular shape of Bengal Bay funnels high surges into the apex of the triangle where Bangladesh sits, and the shallow bottom of the bay allows extraordinarily high storm surges to pile up."

The good news, relatively speaking, is that "the portion of coast likely to receive the highest storm surge levels of 20-25 feet is virtually unpopulated" -- specifically, the coastal regions of the "Sundarbans Forest, the world's largest forest of mangrove trees ... [which] is the least populated coastal area in the country." However, 10-to-20-foot surge still likely affected "areas with a population of at least a million, to the east of the Sundarbans forest, and inland from the forest."

I assume the death toll will ultimately be well into the thousands, which will make the notion that "it could have been worse," while true, seem rather hollow.

The season without a champion

By Brendan Loy

It's become increasingly common in the sports blogosphere to refer to the BCS title game as the "MNC," meaning "Mythical National Championship." As regular readers know, I despise the BCS, so I agree with the sentiment, but I have nevertheless resisted the "MNC" label because I don't want to confuse people with unnecessary blog-hipster jargon.

That said, never has the label been more appropriate. Unless Kansas goes 13-0, in which case they will have earned the right to be called an undisputed national champ, this year's "champion" will indeed be mythical. Commenter Sandy Underpants expressed this point well yesterday:

It's become fairly obvious that there will not be a National Champion this season. Sure a team (or two (or three)) will get the BCS title and the AP title and the Golf Digest title, but they aren't going to be national champions because they were dominant or the best, they're going to be champs because the season ran out. If we kept going there would be a new number 1 and 2 team during the week of December 8 and a new 1&2 December 15.

Indeed. It's tempting to argue that LSU is somehow above the rest of the pack, and that they would eventually become the obvious choice if the season continued indefinitely, but in light of their close shaves (and their loss, albeit on the road in triple-overtime, to a team that has since been exposed as only slightly above average), I'm not sure that's accurate. I think the Tigers are a bit like Hillary Clinton: they've been at or near the top of the polls for long enough that they are starting to feel inevitable, but they haven't actually done anything to establish that they're head-and-shoulders above everyone else.

Google Maps rocks my world

By Brendan Loy

I love Google Maps. I swear, whenever I think of something they could do to improve it, they do that very thing within three months. It's like they can read my mind. Latest example: they've changed their "customize your route" feature so that it doesn't create an extra "stop" at the arbitrary point that you drag the cursor to. Instead of a big ugly yellow pause-sign thingy, dragging & dropping now just creates a little white dot, and the driving directions are continuous. You can still manually create an a multiple-stop trip, of course, by using the "Add destination..." link or by typing to:[wherever] as many times as you want in the "End address" box. But you don't have to create faux-stops just to customize your route from Point A to Point B. Brilliant.

S**t, fan on collision course

By Brendan Loy

Pakistan continues to go to hell in a handbasket, and Iran's nuclear ambitions have reached a critical, potentially war-triggering juncture.

Why do I suddenly have Tom Lehrer running through my head? "This is the song that some of the boys sang as they went bravely off to World War III..."

Anyway, this has been your international news update. We now return you to your BCS controversy, Hollywood writer's strike, and Trials of the Century (O.J. and Barry), already in progress.

Down goes #2 -- again

By Brendan Loy

Arizona 34, Oregon 24, final. The injury-plagued Ducks are the fifth #2 team to lose to an unranked opponent this season.

Ridicluous.

The Big 12 trio of Kansas-Oklahoma-Missouri now unquestionably occupies the #2 spot in the BCS pecking order. #3 is West Virginia. #4? I'd say it's Arizona State, rather than Ohio State; I think the Sun Devils will leapfrog the Buckeyes if both win out. Regardless, the Sun Devils now control their Rose Bowl destiny.

And on that front, how about USC? If the Trojans win out, they can earn their sixth straight Pac-10 title or share thereof. They'll need another Oregon loss to reach the Rose Bowl, though.

Oh, and if eight of the Top 10 teams not named Arizona State lose between now and December 2, the Trojans could be playing in New Orleans on January 7. Far-fetched? Not this season. Fight on!

P.S. I just did a quickie BCS bowl projection update, and, assuming USC beats ASU, Oregon and Texas win out, the Big 12 champion reaches the national title game, and West Virginia wins the Big East, I think this could mean a Trojans-Longhorns rematch in the Fiesta Bowl:

Title game: LSU vs. Oklahoma (or Missouri or Kansas, whatever)
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Texas (!!!)
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Boise/Hawaii/Illinois

At least now, if Oregon wins out, we won't have to see a Rose Bowl pitting either USC vs. Michigan (for the third time in five years) or USC vs. Ohio State (next year's home opener). Frankly, given the competition, I'd rather see the Trojans in the Fiesta Bowl. Playing Texas (or some other Big 12 team, or Georgia, or whomever) would be interesting and fun. The Buckeyes or Skunkbears? Bleh.

On the other hand, what if Michigan beats tOSU on Saturday, and Oregon wins out? We'd be looking at a Rose Bowl rematch of that dreadful Michigan-Oregon game from September. Yikes. Would the never-before-used "greater good of college football" clause be invoked to prevent such a yawner?

Thursday night football

By David K.

I haven't paid much attention to the Thursday night games this year, but with tonights game featuring current #2 Oregon it looks a lot more interesting to Pac-10 fans. Oregon is taking an agressive approach to the game so far and its working for them. Dennis Dixon scrambled 40+ yards on a 4th and 3 to score a touchdown and then they quick snapped for a 2pt conversion. Will Arizona be able to respond? Apparently not as Oregon just intercepted a Tuitama long pass on the Wildcats second play of the night.

Box score here, game is on ESPN.

UPDATE Oregon QB Dennis Dixon, a leading Heisman candidate is likely done for the night after taking a bad step and wrenching his injured knee. The question now is whether he is done for just the night or done for the whole season. Can Oregon win out with Brady Leaf stepping in at QB?

UPDATE x2 Following Dixon's exit from the game Arizona has been on fire especially on special teams and now lead by 17 points going into the half.

UPDATE FINAL Arizona wins the upset 34-24
Oregon becomes the 5th #2 team to lose to an unranked opponent this season. I imagine Coach Stoops (Arizona) will be getting a good phone call from Coach Stoops (Oklahoma) after this game. Dennis Dixon continued an unlucky streak for west coast quarterbacks, we'll see if he is back for next weeks game, but Oregon is out of the picture when it comes to the national championship, can they make it to the Rose Bowl? According to the announcers this will be the first time since 1998 that Arizona has won back to back Pac-10 home games. Yikes.

Not-really-liveblogging the Dem debate

By Brendan Loy

I haven't watched any of the presidential debates up until this point, so I figured I should watch tonight's Democratic debate, even though it conflicts with part of the Oregon-Arizona game. (Priorities!) At the moment, I'm watching it on a slight TiVo delay, and can I just say: is there no one on this stage who will point out that whether illegal immigrants should get driver's licenses is a state issue, and the President of the United States has nothing to do with it? I know these are Democrats, but jeez.

Also: "A Kucinich Administration will be a worker's White House" ... HAHAHAHA.

UPDATE: The Dems say the key to American security in the Middle East is promoting democracy. Isn't that the Bush Doctrine?

UPDATE 2: "I feel very comfortable in the kitchen." --Hillary Clinton. Heh.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

-- A federal grand jury indicts Barry Bonds on perjury and obstruction of justice charges, AP and CNN affiliate KTVU report.

To all the Leopard Users

By Jay Johnson

For all the Mac folks out there who have already upgraded to Leopard, please note that Apple has just released the 10.5.1 update.

Cheers.

Oh yeah, for those of you like me who are still languishing in Tiger-land, they've also put out 10.4.11, which I have to suspect is the last update for Tiger.

Hail hail Michigan, defenders of the WAC?

By Brendan Loy

Once upon a time, serial underdog-rooters like myself dared to dream that the November 23 showdown between Hawaii and Boise State would be "an absolutely HUGE game, with not just WAC title implications, but BCS implications" for both teams. Then the Broncos of Boise, the newly crowned Fiesta Bowl champions and mid-major conquering heroes, lost their opener to Washington, and the dream died -- or so we thought. Yet here we are, just over two months later, and the odds are increasing that the Broncos-Warriors clash will be a virtual BCS play-in game (assuming, of course, that both teams take care of business this weekend, and also assuming Hawaii, if it beats Boise State, proceeds to beat Washington the following weekend).

I blogged about this last week, but thanks to the events of this past Saturday -- particularly those in the Big Ten -- and the discovery of a scenario that I hadn't previously considered, it's worth revisiting.

There are three ways for a mid-major conference champion to qualify for the BCS in spite of the bowls' aversion to voluntarily inviting them. One is to finish in the Top 12 of the final BCS standings. Another is to finish between #13 and #16, and ahead of the champion of at least one BCS conference. And the third -- which I hadn't thought of before, until Stewart Mandel mentioned it in yesterday's Mailbag -- is to finish in the Top 14 when four of the other Top 14 teams are ineligible to be invited because of the two-team-per-conference limit, thus forcing the bowls to invite all ten eligible teams, including the "little guy" they'd rather leave at home.

The Top 12 scenario is the easiest to comprehend, but it's also the least likely to occur this season. Hawaii may be able to pull it off, but Boise probably can't, barring several upsets among teams currently ranked a bit above them (e.g., Texas, Florida, etc.).

The Top 16 scenario is much more likely, as I believe both Hawaii and Boise are virtual locks to finish #16 or higher if they win out. The bigger question is whether any BCS champion will finish below them, and while everyone seems to be focusing on the ACC and Big East on that front, I believe the key to the whole scenario is Saturday's game in Ann Arbor. Fans of the Warriors and Broncos may want to wear some maize & blue these next couple of days, and perhaps softly hum "Hail to the Victors" as they go about their business, because their hopes of reaching the BCS may well depend on the fortunes of the Michigan Wolverines. I'll return to that scenario and analyze it in more detail after the jump.

Then there's the Top 14 scenario. In this situation, the WAC champ wouldn't technically get an "automatic" BCS bid, but they'd be guaranteed an invitation anyway because of a glut of SEC, Pac-10 and Big 12 teams in the BCS Top 14. Here's how it would work: if the ACC, Big Ten and Big East champions all finish in the Top 14, and no other teams from those conferences join them there, that would leave seven BCS invitations to go around, but the other three major conferences are only eligible for two invitations each -- a total of six. That leaves one extra, which would of necessity go to a #13- or #14-ranked WAC champ.

More on both of the latter two scenarios after the jump.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

-- Former NFL star O.J. Simpson must stand trial on felony charges stemming from an alleged armed robbery, a judge in Las Vegas, Nevada, rules.

Cyclone Sidr threatens massive loss of life in India, Bangladesh

By Brendan Loy

Category 4 Cyclone Sidr is bearing down on the densely populated coasts of Bangladesh and India along the Bay of Bengal. Dr. Jeff Masters has a full update. Sidr is likely to weaken shortly before making landfall, perhaps to a Cat. 1 or 2, but it could still be devastating. As Dr. Masters points out, nine of the thirteen deadliest cyclones in world history -- all with death tolls of 40,000 or above -- occurred in the Bay of Bengal, where the coasts are low-lying, densely populated, and poverty-stricken. (Hat tip: Aaron.)

Quote of the day

By Brendan Loy

From Stewart Mandel's Mailbag:

How the heck can college football increase the number of games in a season, keep the same bowl eligibility requirements (six wins), and the Pac-10 still not manage to produce enough teams to fill its bowls?
--Jeff G., Ellicott City, Md.

Two words, my friend: Karl Dorrell.

Heh.

Buffalo football update

By Brendan Loy

Miami of Ohio hosts Akron tonight at 7:30 in a ESPN2 weeknight game that has major implications for the surprising Buffalo Bulls. Here's a detailed rundown of the MAC East scenarios, but basically, because Buffalo squandered its chance to put away the division by losing to Miami 11 days ago, they now need the RedHawks to lose. Thus, it would be really, really helpful for UB's division championship hopes if Akron were to pull the upset tonight. (Miami has two games left: tonight's tilt and a visit to hated UB rival Ohio next Saturday. Buffalo also has two remaining games: vs. Bowling Green this Saturday and at Kent State next Saturday.)

Oddly enough, however, winning a division title might arguably hurt Buffalo's chances of qualifying for a bowl game. If Buffalo and Miami both win out, the Bulls won't go to the MAC title game -- but at 6-6, they'll be bowl-eligible, and believe it or not, they might actually be an attractive option for the International Bowl in nearby Toronto, which has third pick among eligible MAC teams. On the other hand, if Buffalo wins out and Miami loses a game, Buffalo will carry that 6-6 record into the MAC title game, which would be an all-or-nothing proposition for the Bulls: win, and they'd be guaranteed a bowl invitation; lose, and they'd be bowl-ineligible at 6-7. (The NCAA will grant a bowl-eligibility exemption to 6-7 conference champs, but not to 6-7 runner-ups.)

But maybe I'm being a homer (for my, like, fifth-favorite team... heh) in thinking that the International Bowl would give 6-6 Buffalo a second look based purely on location. Presuming that UB fans would travel to Toronto en masse if their team gets a bowl invite would be a leap of faith, to say the least. I think the bowl's decision would depend in part on how many MAC teams are bowl-eligible, and how many of those get to 7 wins. (On both fronts, a bunch of teams are on the bubble at the moment.) Either way, if you're a Buffalo fan, I guess it makes more sense to root for the Bulls to, uh, take the bull by the horns, if you will, and earn their way to a bowl game -- which means winning out, hoping Miami loses, and then winning that MAC title game. Besides, even by getting to the MAC title game, Buffalo would be a national TV, which is almost like a bowl game. So: Go Bulls! And more immediately, Go Akron!

Today's entry from the "WTF?" file

By Brendan Loy

The most bizarre Associated Press correction ever:

GAUHATI, India (AP) - In a Nov. 13 story, The Associated Press incorrectly reported that Paris Hilton was praised by conservationists for highlighting the problem of binge-drinking elephants in northeastern India. Lori Berk, a publicist for Hilton, said she never made any comments about helping drunken elephants in India.

Huh?!

UPDATE: Here is the original story.

Injury bug bites Gonzaga

By Brendan Loy

Remember when I wrote last week that I have high hopes for Gonzaga this season? Well, I still do, but this doesn't help: the Zags have lost both Josh Heytvelt and Steven Gray for 4 to 6 weeks due to injuries requiring surgery. Suddenly, "what might be [Gonzaga's] most talented team ever" is reduced to hobbling through its non-conference gauntlet of a schedule without two of its best players.

But hey, let's look on the bright side. I also wrote this in my last post: "I almost hope the Zags do well, but not too well, against that early schedule. Not that I'll be rooting against them in any particular game, mind, but generally they seem to do better when they come into the NCAA Tournament with low expectations (last year notwithstanding), so an early record that's better than last year's 9-6 start, but also not insanely good, would probably be ideal." If they want to stay off the bubble, but away from being a top 6 seed, these injuries could actually help with that! Silver linings, people!

Anyway, go Zags.

President Huckabee?

By Brendan Loy

Surprising poll results from Iowa:

Democrats and Republicans are both headed toward heated showdowns in Iowa, where, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll, Hillary Clinton holds a statistically insignificant lead over John Edwards and Barack Obama, and GOP hopeful Mitt Romney finds his long-held position as the state's front-runner challenged by a surging Mike Huckabee. ...

Among likely caucus-goers, Clinton came out on top with 25 percent support, but she was trailed closely by Edwards at 23 percent, and Obama at 22 percent. With a margin of error of 4 percentage points, there is no clear leader. Trailing behind was Bill Richardson, at 12 percent, with all other candidates in single digits. ...

Huckabee ... is well within striking distance in the CBS News/New York Times poll, where he trails Romney, 27 percent to 21 percent, with a 5 percent margin of error.

Rudy Giuliani was in third at 15 percent. All other candidates were in single digits, including Fred Thompson, who had 9 percent support among likely caucus-goers.

Meanwhile, the National Right to Life Coalition has endorsed Fred Thompson, essentially dubbing him the anti-Giuliani. Asked why NRLC picked Thompson over Huckabee despite the latter's arguably stronger pro-life record, the group's director pointed to "electability" -- an interesting rationale, in light of the latest Iowa polls. Anyway, the group's official press release is here.

Mr. Murdoch, tear down that wall!

By Brendan Loy

Less than two months after the New York Times cancelled its wildly unsuccessful "TimesSelect" pay-for-content scheme and made its website free again, Rupert Murdoch announced that the Wall Street Journal website will be free, too. The WSJ has long, if not always, made would-be readers pay for access to its website, so this is a big deal. (Headline shamelessly stolen from InstaPundit, to whom, a hat tip.)

Strange blue cloud over Ohio gas station

By Brendan Loy

Creepy. (Hat tip: Becky.)

Bloggers on strike

By Brendan Loy

A bunch of TV blogs are going dark today in solidarity with the ongoing Writers' Guild of America strike. (Hat tip: TV Week.)

For all the latest on the WGA strike, Nikke Finke's Deadline Hollywood Daily is the best bloggy source.

Happy Veterans Day

By Brendan Loy

Today is Veterans Day. Also, yesterday was the 232nd anniversary of the founding of the Marine Corps. Both occasions give me an opportunity to reflect once again on the military service of my maternal grandfather, Giff Loomer, who fought in the Pacific theater as a lieutenant in the 2nd Marine Division during World War II. I blogged about this at length back in September, and the post, to my surprise and delight, was Instalanched.

I don't really have anything to add to that post -- if you missed it, I'd just recommend that you go back and read it -- but I did want to blog a few pictures of Grandpa and me that my mom recently scanned and sent me:

Those photos are from 1981, 1984 and 1986, respectively. (In the last photo, I'm with my cousin Alexis, making airplanes with Grandpa.) Sadly, Grandpa -- who was the most hale and hardy of my grandparents, and seemed destined to live well into my teenage years if not longer -- died in 1991, before my tenth birthday, due to an unlikely cascade of complications from surgery. As a result, I never got to know him through an adult's eyes, or talk to him about the things we might have talked about when I got older... including, perhaps, his war experiences. He was reluctant to talk about them at all, but as one e-mailer said in response to my September post, "The key, I think, is for them to live long enough, and you get old enough, that you can spend an evening drinking and talking with them." Alas, Grandpa and I never had that chance.

Anyway, God Bless Grandpa Loomer and God Bless all the brave men and women who have put their lives on the line to defend our nation and our freedom.

Big Orange Cookie

By Brendan Loy

A Tennessee Vols Christmas cookie cake. Heh.

Locker OK

By David K.

Official update during the broadcast of the UW game. UW QB Jake Locker, who earlier left in an ambulance, has been released from the hospital and is returning to the game. Presumably he won't be playing anymore tonight, but with the results from the hospital negative and his being released, looks like there is hope for his return next week. Meanwhile the UW has pulled within 6 points of the Beavers with 7 minutes left in the game. Lets go Dawgs!

UPDATE: The Huskies get a lucky break from what is a horrible call by the refs, who gave the Huskies a fumble recovery on a play where OSU running back Bernard was CLEARLY down at the 3 yard line. However they were able to snap the ball before anyone could call for a review.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Washington lost, 29-23.

Meanwhile, Locker wasn't the only quarterback out west who suffered a scary helmet-to-helmet hit in one of yesterday's late games. Hawaii's Colt Brennan -- who has a showdown with Locker's Huskies on December 1 -- suffered a mild concussion in the Warriors' win over Fresno State:

The Warriors are now 9-0 and 6-0 in the Western Athletic Conference, one of just two unbeaten teams left in the nation. But much of the talk was about Brennan's status after the hardest hit many watching had ever seen in a football game.

The crushing blow (shoulder first, no flag) dealt by Bulldogs linebacker Marcus Riley left Brennan unconscious briefly, and with what was initially diagnosed as a grade 3 (the most severe) concussion. It was later described as "mild" by a UH official, and several people said Brennan was back to normal after the game.

Brennan did not talk to reporters afterward, but did release a statement.

"I'm doing fine," he said through a UH spokesman. "I'd like to thank everyone for the support they gave out there. I'm looking forward to getting back on the field for next week's game against Nevada." ...

[A] UH official described Brennan as "day-to-day" when it comes to football duties. Brennan did not require hospitalization.

Coach June Jones said he does not expect Brennan to miss Friday's game at Nevada.

Today in the ACC

By JLR

Some huge ACC games today--a few of which with national implications.

For starters, I just got home from the BC/Maryland game (Maryland 42, # 8 BC 35)  Maryland's now 5-5 ... One more win (@ FSU or @ NC State) to be bowl eligible.  Let's GOOOOOO MAR-Y-LAND!

All of the other nationally-ranked ACC teams won today (#11 Virginia Tech, #19 Virginia, and #21 Clemson all won).

Even though that was the only real upset today in the ACC, BC's loss and Clemson's victory over Wake Forest today puts Clemson in first place in the ACC-Atlantic Division ... And Clemson plays BC at home next week.  Since that's Clemson's last ACC game this season (they finish the season against arch-rival South Carolina), it's a must-win for Clemson to make it to the ACC championship game against either Virginia or Virginia Tech (who play each other on the 24th in Charlottesville).

Quote of the day

By Brendan Loy

"Hey, I want you to know something. My dad fought in the war so you could have the privilege to say dumb things." --Lou Holtz to Mark May on ESPN's College Football Final, after an argument over whether Kansas (10-0) is the best team in the country.

Heh.

Jake Locker leaves game in ambulance

By Brendan Loy

Scary news from Corvallis:

Washington Husky quarterback Jake Locker was injured and taken off the field on a stretcher and left Reser Stadium in an ambulance tonight in the second quarter of a Pac-10 game against Oregon State.

Locker was hit hard on a scramble with 6:18 to go in the second quarter. The redshirt freshman was attempting to pick up a third-and-six when he scrambled and was hit helmet-to-helmet by Oregon State safety Al Afalava. Oregon State linebacker Joey LaRocque was also in on the play.

Locker landed face down in front of the Huskies' bench at the 45-yard line and did not move while being immediately tended to by trainers.

He was turned over, his facemask was cut off and he was put on a stretcher and lifted into an ambulance after about 10 minutes. Play-by-play radio announcer Bob Rondeau said on KJR-AM that Locker was moving all of his limbs but there was concern about a possible neck injury.

Locker was taken to Good Samaritan Hospital in Corvallis and there was no immediate update on his condition. Washington teammates circled Locker, the team's leader and the centerpiece of the team's future hopes, as doctors worked. Locker's parents, Scott and Anita, moved down to the field, with Anita Locker hugging Huskies coach Tyrone Willingham as doctors worked on her son. Anita Locker rode in the ambulance with her son.

More here. Thoughts and prayers here.

The game is still ongoing. UW trails 16-0, and a loss would mathematically eliminate the 3-6 Huskies from any chance at bowl eligibility, but I imagine that's the least of your average Washington fan's concerns right now.

Trojans win!

By Brendan Loy

USC 24, Cal 17, final.

Fight on! w00t! Beat the Sun Devils!!

Defense? We don't need no stinkin' defense

By Brendan Loy

Navy 74, North Texas 62, final. Good lord. (And they actually slowed down in the second half. It was 49-45 at halftime.)

USC, Cal tied; Vols-Hogs photos

By Brendan Loy

USC and Cal are tied 17-17 with 13:41 left.

Hopefully the end result will be better than the basketball team's opener earlier today. (Again with the Atlantic Sun conference knocking off ranked teams at home!)

Anyway... here are some photos from my afternoon at the Tennessee-Arkansas game:

Bloggers unite! Me with Mark from Loser with Socks and Jonathan from 82 Sluggo Win.

The Vols come in through the "Power T."

Austin Rogers scores Tennessee's first touchdown of the day, and the crowd goes wild.

Arkansas's quarterback passes the ball. Why on earth the Razorbacks did so much of this, I have no idea. They have the country's best running back, Darren McFadden -- and he only ran the ball five meaningful times in the first half. Most of his 22 carries came after the game was already out of hand. Not only that, but on a whole bunch of occasions, he wasn't even on the field on crucial plays. Houston Nutt is a terrible, terrible coach.

Jonathan, Jay and me. (I put on the long-sleeve shirt, and the USC shirt over it, after the Tennessee game ended. It was getting chilly... and it was time to root for the Trojans agaist Cal!)

Down goes Ohio State!!

By Brendan Loy

The Skunkbears and Buckeyes BOTH lost! HAHAHA! Go Illinois! The Big Ten is officially, justly irrelevant! ... In less positive news, um, the service academies officially own Notre Dame. Air Force
wins, 41-24.

Illini upset Buckeyes!

By David K.

Illinois was able to hold off Ohio State and came away with an amazing 28-21 win in Columbus to ruin their undefeated season and likely keep them out of the National Championship game.

Who will be #1 next week? LSU, Oregon, or undefeated Kansas?

Update: Heh, looks like someone over at SI.com needs to do some fact checking, their football page currently has the following link: Illinois snaps No. 13 Michigan's win streak.

College Football Update

By David K.

Good afternoon sports fans! With Brendan out celebrating Tennessee's win over Arkansas, a little guestblogger updating on todays football action.

As Brendan mentions below Wisconsin upset Michigan, but a Wolverine win over Ohio State next week would send them to the BCS game (presumeably the Rose Bowl) in January as the Big-Ten representative.

Meanwhile, despite striking early with a touchdown in the first 13 seconds of the game, #1 Ohio State is trailing unranked Illinois 28-21 at home. An Illini win would likely set up a 1 loss team as the new #1 with #2 LSU strong favorites against Louisiana Tech and #3 Oregon having a bye this week (they take on Arizona on Thursday night).

In the SEC, Mississippi State upset 22nd ranked Alabama and became bowl eligible. The scoring in the game consisted of 2 touchdowns and 5 field goals with a final score of 17-12 in traditional SEC style.

Clemson crushed Wake Forest to stay within striking distance of the ACC-Coastal title, they would need to beat Boston College next week and would likely face the winner of the Virginia/Virginia Tech game in the ACC Championship.

Down in the Big 12, Missouri is doing its part to make sure their last regular season game against Kansas would be for the Big 12 North title with a win today over struggling Big 12 South opponent Texas A&M.

#16 Connecticut's Cinderlla season in the Big East is in trouble as they trail unranked (but 7-2) Cincinatti 20-3 in the 3rd quarter. Connecticut would still sit atop the Big East, tied with W Virginia, but the Huskies still have to play the mountaineers at home.

In the Pac-10 #9 ASU is attempting to hold off the schizophrenic Bruins who led early but now trail the Sun Devils by 4 in the 3rd.

USC will take on Cal at 8pm EDT in a game that many had thought might decide the Pac-10 title when the season started.

Finally, Charlie Weis continued to show his patriotism as the Irish lost at home to a strong Air Force team, despite an improved performance from Jimmy Clausen in his return as a starter. The Irish drop to 1-9 for the first time ever but hope remains for their final home game as they take on perennial doormat Duke (who, of course, suck).

Vols 34, Hogs 13

By Brendan Loy

Tennessee wins! Also, Wisconsin beat Michigan! Now if the Skunkbears beat Ohio State next week, you'll have a 9-3 Big Ten champion with a loss to Appalachian State and a ranking of like #20. Heh.

Underway at Neyland

By Brendan Loy

Go Vols! Beat Hogs!

Go Big Orange!

By Brendan Loy

We're at Thompson-Boling Arena for Tennessee's men's basketball opener against Temple. Go Vols!

UPDATE: Tennessee won, 80-63. We had fun at the game. Great newly renovated arena. Here's a photo of me there:

That's Bruce Pearl's autograph on my shirt, BTW, from back in June.

Anyway, tomorrow, I go to Neyland Stadium for the UT-Arkansas football game! Woohoo!

P.S. Oh, and GOOOO IRISH! BEEEEAT FALCONS! ... and FIGHT ON TROJANS! BEAT THE BEARS!

Holiday cheer

By Brendan Loy

Remember that big artificial Christmas tree that I posted a picture of them building in downtown Knoxville last week? Well, it's up now.

An underwhelming hurricane season winds down

By Brendan Loy

My (slightly premature) wrap-up of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season has been posted at Pajamas Media.

They asked me to write something about the slow hurricane season in the context of the global-warming debate. I'm not sure if they got exactly what they expected, but I tried to be fair, balanced, and honest in my assessment. I'm not the person to ask for a dissertation about the science of global warming itself, but if I can convince a few people on either side of the debate -- most likely the skeptics in this particular instance, given PJM's core audience -- to drop some of their more specious arguments, I would consider that a success.

WVU wins, keeps pressure on UConn

By Brendan Loy

West Virginia beat Louisville yesterday -- in a game attended by Trojan CFB blog road-tripper Jonathan Tu, who will drive to Knoxville today for tomorrow's Tennessee-Arkansas game -- in Morgantown by a score of 38-31, thereby keeping the pressure on surprise Big East leader UConn. If WVU (3-1 Big East) had lost, UConn (4-0) would have had a two-game lead over everyone in the conference, meaning they could have lost any one of their final three games, including the November 24 game at West Virginia, and still won the conference. Instead, as things stand now, the Huskies can still finish 2-1 and win the conference, but one of the wins must be over West Virginia.

UConn plays Cincinnati, which is also still in the Big East hunt at 2-2, Saturday at Cincy. The Huskies have yet to prove they can beat a quality opponent on the road, so this is a big game, even though UConn could lose it and still win the conference by beating Syracuse and WVU. The Huskies' three consecutive wins over Louisville, South Florida and Rutgers were all at Rentschler Field; their only two victories away from East Hartford have been over Duke and Pitt, and their one loss was on the road against Virginia. Two of their final three games are on the road against tough opponents: the Bearcats on Saturday, the Mountaineers in two weeks.

Also, if UConn beats Cincinnati and follows it up with a home win over lowly Syracuse next week, and West Virginia loses at Cincy next week, the Huskies would clinch the conference before even taking the field against WVU.

I never got around to writing my planned "UConn is for real" post after they beat USF, but Sunday Morning Quarterback had a good post on Tuesday titled "Getting to know UConn." In it, SMQ examines how the Huskies have managed to achieve this level of success, and then asks, "is UConn good? Does it matter?" A comparison to 2006-07 Wake Forest is made. Those guys, you may recall, ended up in a BCS bowl.

Big East expands tourney to 16 teams

By Brendan Loy

The Big East has decided to invite all 16 teams to its conference tournament in basketball, starting this season. Since the league expanded two years ago, the bottom four teams have been excluded from making the trip to Madison Square Garden, but not anymore. However, it won't be a standard 16-team tournament format, pitting 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, and so forth. Instead, it will be sort of like the West Coast Conference tournament on crack, with a series of byes and double-byes to reward teams that do well in the regular season:

Teams seeded ninth through 16th will meet on the first day. The four winners will advance to play seeds 5 through 8. The top four seeded teams will still receive a bye to the quarterfinals where they will meet the winners of the second day's games.

Remember the 2006 Syracuse team, led by Gerry "10 F***ing Games" McNamara, that was seeded #9 in the Big East Tournament and resided on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble, then won four games in four days to win the conference championship and earn a #5 seed in the Big Dance? Well, under the new format, the Orange would have had to win five games in five days to win the BET. On the flip side, though, maybe they wouldn't have needed to beat #1 UConn in the Big East quarterfinals (which, in '06, was considered the "must-win" game that clinched them an NCAA bid), since they would have already had to win two conference tournament games (over the #16 and #8 seeds) just to get themselves into that game. That might have been enough by itself to get them off the bubble. ... There are some scenarios where this new format will actually be good for bubble teams ranked in the #9-11 range, and others where it will be bad. Regardless, I daresay this will make the Big East Tournament more exciting than ever.

Terrorists may target L.A., Chicago malls

By Brendan Loy

The latest uncorroborated, non-imminent, possibly unreliable, probably-a-load-of-crap-but-they-gotta-cover-their-asses-and-warn-us terrorist threat is a possible al Qaeda plot against shopping malls in L.A. and Chicago during the holiday season. Err, Christmas season. (Because if we call it the "holiday season," the terrorists have already won. Right, Bill O'Reilly?)

Glenn Reynolds suspects a conspiracy by Amazon.com stock-pumpers who want Americans to cower fearfully at home... and shop online. Heh.

Get the hell out... of England?

By Brendan Loy

They say that in 'artford, 'ereford, and 'ampshire, 'urricanes 'ardly hever 'appen. However, in Norfolk, Suffolk, Kent, Essex, North Yorks and Lincs, they're preparing for a wicked storm surge. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has called an emergency Cobra meeting to address the situation, which could turn life-threatening. (Hat tip: Peter Evans.)

Will Israel bomb Iran?

By Brendan Loy

The Times of London reports:

A claim by President Ahmadinejad that Iran has 3,000 working uranium-enriching centrifuges sent a tremor across the world yesterday amid fears that Israel would respond by bombing the country’s nuclear facilities.

Military sources in Washington said that the existence of such a large number could be a “tipping point”, triggering an Israeli air strike. The Pentagon is reluctant to take military action against Iran, but officials say that Israel is a “different matter”. Amid the international uproar, British MPs who were to have toured the nuclear facility were backing out of their Iran trip.

Even before President Ahmadinejad’s announcement, a US defence official told The Times yesterday: “Israel could do something when they get to around 3,000 working centrifuges. The Pentagon is minded to wait a little longer.” US experts say 3,000 machines running for long periods could make enough enriched uranium for an atomic bomb within a year.

Somebody get Les Miles over there, stat.

Study: abstinence-only education doesn't work

By Brendan Loy

I am shocked, shocked: "You mean, simply telling teenagers not to have sex doesn’t work? And quality, comprehensive education does? And the Bush administration insists on supporting the prior while rejecting the latter? You don’t say."

Karl Dorrell and the race card

By Brendan Loy

Heh.

Information Superhighway Robbery: MLB + DRM = WTF

By Brendan Loy

Unbelievable:

Allan Wood (a baseball megafan who has written a book about Babe Ruth) purchased over $280 worth of digital downloads of baseball games from Major League Baseball, who have just turned off their [Digital Rights Management] server, leaving him with no way to watch his videos. MLB's position is that since these videos were "one time sales," and that means that Wood and everyone else who gave money to MLB is out of luck -- they'll never be able to watch their videos again.

MLB shut down the DRM server because they've changed suppliers, and now they expect suckers to buy downloads of games in the new DRM format. Anyone who does this needs their head examined -- using DRM itself is contemptible enough, but using DRM this way is just plain criminal.

Techdirt says "it's really amazing how far Major League Baseball goes towards pissing off its fans." More broadly, Wired says this is "a perfect example of why DRM is bad. Those who imagined the worse case scenario to be DRM systems failing or disappearing were wrong. The truth is far nastier: DRM will be disabled by content providers any time they please, destroying your media collections whenever the pleasure takes them."

It would be like if Steve Jobs woke up tomorrow and decided that all downloaded music from the iTunes Music Store would no longer work. Which, as a technical matter, he could do, and you wouldn't be able to do anything about it, unless you'd previously burned those songs onto a CD, so that you could rip them back onto your hard drive as DRM-free MP3s -- which would be a "circumvention" and thus a violation of the DMCA, by the way. God bless America.

Of course, as a legal matter, Jobs might be contractually obligated not to do that... and so, IMHO, is MLB contractually obligated not to do what it's doing, unless I'm misreading (or misunderstanding the significance of) this line from the FAQ that was in place at the time of the original downloads, according to the Joy of Sox:

7. Do I have to obtain a license every time I want to watch the downloaded video?

No. When you first try to play the video, a license will be distributed to you and stored by the player. Unless manually deleted, the license will exist forever and will be used when you try to watch the downloaded video on that machine. If you watch the video on a different machine, another license will be required.

I haven't looked this up on Westlaw or Lexis, but I'm pretty sure "forever" means something different from "until we feel like changing our minds."

Prediction: MLB will back down on this, because if they don't, they will face a class-action lawsuit, and they will lose.

(Hat tip: Kat Palmore.)

NOTE: Nothing in this post constitutes legal advice. I am not your lawyer -- I am not anybody's lawyer, yet -- and you are not my client. If you are considering whether to sue MLB, you should get a lawyer, and not rely on anything I've said here. (Thank you, CLE ethics class. Heh.)

UPDATE: As expected, MLB has backed down. But Wood is not satisfied, because they have already reneged on a 20-hour-old promise to be "pro-active" and contact those customers who were screwed over by their actions. Instead, only those customers who discover the problem themselves will be told how to fix it. Wood writes, "This problem was caused solely by MLB, and it's up to MLB to solve it -- by taking the lead and contacting the customers who are currently being defrauded. They should have the decency -- and good business sense -- to publicly announce that a huge problem exists and that they are working to solve it." But they're not doing that. Also:

These new downloads will still have DRM protection, so customers will have to go to MLB.com for a license, as they always have. I asked if, since MLB allows customers to receive a license at only three separate computers, that as people upgrade or replace their machines over time, they eventually could be left with no way to play the files on their fourth computer, the MLB rep said "Yes, that's a problem."

And MLB has no proposed solution to it.

WTF?

By Jay Johnson

I think that a big ole WTF? is in order after this box score came across the ticker:

Gardner-Webb 84
Kentucky 68

In Rupp Arena.  No, seriously.

Guess UK's national title hopes are dashed.  Well, except for the fact that there's a tournament that decides that...

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: Pat Forde argues that this upset is on par with Appalachian State's win over Michigan. What do you think?

Vizu.com - Opinion Polls & Market Research

Kentucky was a 25-point favorite, if that matters.

High hopes for Gonzaga

By Brendan Loy

No pun intended. :) Anyway, Seth Davis has a nice article about the Zags and their thoroughly admirable head coach, Mark Few, as well as the team's prospects for this upcoming basketball season.

I really think Gonzaga could do some special things this year. In fact, of my three teams -- USC, Notre Dame and Gonzaga -- I have the highest hopes for the Zags, despite the hype surrounding the Trojans' O.J. Mayo and the return of Kyle McAlarney to an Irish team helmed by the reigning Big East Coach of the Year (ahem). If Gabe Pruitt and Nick Young had stuck around at USC, I'd have more faith in the Trojans to live up to the hype, but as it is, I'm not so sure. As for the Irish, well, I just don't sense that this is a team ready to show off some heretofore unseen greatness; I think last year was pretty much their high water mark, and against a tougher Big East schedule this season, I expect them to suffer a return to mediocrity. I hope I'm wrong, of course. But anyway, Gonzaga... with Josh Heytvelt back, Jeremy Pargo taking over point guard duties full-time, and Micah Downs injury-free and in the lineup for a full season, I really think they could make some serious noise. I'm particularly excited about the ascendancy of Pargo, who is a freakin' stud (or "Grown Ass Man," as La Rev likes to say). Derek Raivio was very talented, but inconsistent to the point of being a liability his junior and senior years, IMHO. Pargo, I think, can succeed where Raivio failed: leading his team to achieve greater things than anyone expects of them. Well, if Heytvelt can stay healthy and away from the 'shrooms, that is.

The Zags are ranked #14 in both preseason polls. That ranking will be tested early, given that they have games against Texas Tech (probably), #28 Butler or Michigan or Virginia Tech (possibly), #10 Wazzu, #32 UConn, Oklahoma, #7 Tennessee (in Seattle, alas) and Georgia, all before 2008 is a week old -- and a visit to #3 Memphis on January 26, to boot. (If I wasn't going to be the father of a one-month-old at that point, I'd totally be trying to get tickets and planning a road trip.) I almost hope the Zags do well, but not too well, against that early schedule. Not that I'll be rooting against them in any particular game, mind, but generally they seem to do better when they come into the NCAA Tournament with low expectations (last year notwithstanding), so an early record that's better than last year's 9-6 start, but also not insanely good, would probably be ideal.

Ah, screw it, I hope they start 15-0 en route to an undefeated national championship. :) Go Zags!

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

-- An 18-year-old believed to have shot dead eight people at a Finnish school has died from self-inflicted injuries, police said.

Jim Namnath elected in Marin County

By Brendan Loy

In my earlier post about yesterday's elections across the country, I failed to mention the really big news: Jim Namnath, of Jim & Toni fame, was elected to the board of trustees of the College of Marin, ousting incumbent Harry Moore. The other three incumbents were re-elected. (Indeed, Jim was the only candidate for any local office to buck the status quo trend.) Congratulations, Jim!

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

-- Space shuttle Discovery has landed safely at Kennedy Space Center after a 15-day mission to build and repair the space station.

Anyone want a Vols-Hogs ticket?

By Brendan Loy

I mentioned yesterday that I'm going to Saturday's 12:30 PM Tennessee-Arkansas game with Jonathan (who will be driving in from Morgantown on Friday after attending the West Virginia-Louisville game Thursday night) and Jay. What I didn't mention is that we have a fourth ticket that needs a home. I've asked a couple of people, but as the ticket is presently still unclaimed, I thought I'd open it up for any Irish Trojan readers who might be in the greater Knoxville area and would be interested in a face value ($44) ticket to see the Vols take on the Razorbacks at 108,000-strong "Fort Neyland." Granted, this could result in my sitting next to some weirdo from the Internet, but so could selling it on Craigslist or StubHub, so why not? :) Anyway, if you're interested, shoot me an e-mail this afternoon or evening at irishtrojan [at] gmail.com. Otherwise, I think I may have a Craigslist buyer. So let me know.

Les Miles liberates Pakistan

By Brendan Loy

First, there was the fake interview with Les Miles. Then, the fake brain x-ray. And now, via the great (and broke) road-tripping Jonathan Tu, this piece of comedy gold:

ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN - After four days of martial law and nearly eight years under former President Pervez Musharraf, the Republic of Pakistan was restored to order by LSU (8-1, 5-1 SEC West) head coach Les Miles, who parachuted into the Muslim country in a daring pre-dawn raid.

“People of Pakistan, you are free!” Miles shouted from the highest step of the Pakistani House of Parliament.

Heh.

Next season on 24: Jack Bauer finally meets his match... Les Miles.

Boi criticizes Troy

By Brendan Loy

Scott Schmidt, a.k.a. Boi From Troy, has an op-ed in today's L.A. Times -- in which he criticizes USC. Specifically: "no one should be so arrogant as to think that their talent on the field will excuse their behavior off it. Yet if Heritage Hall celebrates O.J. Simpson the football player while looking away from O.J. Simpson the man, regrettably, that is the idea we're left with."

P.S. But -- through no fault of Scott's, I'm sure -- the headline writer misused an apostrophe in the subhead!!! "The university still honor's Simpson's football career" ... AAAHH!!! Somebody call the grammar police!!

A stunning GOP sweep in Newington

By Brendan Loy

My normally "blue" hometown of Newington, Connecticut unexpectedly swung Republican in yesterday's election, with 35-year-old Jeff Wright -- the older brother of one of my high-school classmates -- defeating Maureen Klett for mayor, and Republicans taking over majorities on the board of education and, for the first time in 16 years, the town council. My dad says it was a "tax revolt." Wright is the first Republican elected mayor of Newington since Rodney Mortensen won on the GOP line in 1991. (Mortsensen subsequently won as an independent in 1993, and again as an independent two years ago. Democratic mayors were elected in 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001 and 2003.)

Here in Knoxville, by contrast, Election Day was a real snoozer. Most of the races were decided at the primary stage.

In South Bend, all the incumbents won. In Mesa, voters approved the construction of a $250 million resort and adventure park. And in Denver, a series of infrastructure bonds and tax increases appears likely to pass.

In Kentucky, indicted Republican governor Ernie Flitcher was defeated in a landslide. But in Mississippi, another Republican governor, possible vice-presidential contender Haley Barbour, won easily. More results of national interest here.

Also, back in Connecticut, the statewide debut of optical scan voting machines, replacing the venerable old lever machines, appears to have gone well. Of course, voting systems always perform "well" -- until there's a close election. :)

Any interesting election results where y'all live?

UPDATE: Via Anonymous Hoosier, news of another stunning Republican mayoral upset -- in Indianapolis, where underfunded outsider Greg Ballard ousted an incumbent Democrat who had been expected to cruise to an easy victory. Some are calling it "the biggest upset in Indiana political history." The Star says "voter anger about rising taxes and crime blew massive change into the City-County Building, from the mayor's office to the council, where Republicans also recaptured the majority they lost four years ago."

UPDATE 2: Elsewhere, Democrats were more successful. (Hat tip: Angrier & Angrier.)

Shuttle & ISS: last chance Wed. AM

By Brendan Loy

The Space Shuttle Discovery is scheduled to land Wednesday afternoon, but for much of the eastern U.S., there's one final chance -- or in some places, two final chances -- early Wednesday morning to see it fly overhead in tandem with the International Space Station. Having watched the pair fly overhead from Nashville back in August, I can tell you it's a really neat thing to see. (I tried to go see it again Monday morning, but they were so close together that they looked indistinguishable to the naked eye.)

In the northeastern U.S. and surrounding areas, the Shuttle and ISS be visible flying overhead from around 5:05 to 5:09 AM EST. Then, from about 6:36 to 6:41 AM EST, they'll be flying over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. In each case, they'll be visible for hundreds of miles in every direction (the closer you are to the track, the brighter and closer to directly overhead they'll be). The ISS will be the brighter object, the Shuttle dimmer, and the ISS will be "leading" while the Shuttle trails behind. They'll be around 20-25 seconds apart (i.e., when one passes a given point in the sky, the other will pass that same point 20-25 seconds later).

For local details, go to Heavens Above.

I'm going to Tennessee-Arkansas!

By Brendan Loy

With Jay and Jonathan Tu! (He of the whirlwind, season-long, cross-country college-football odyssey.) For face value! w00t!

Two years ago, I was at the L.A. Coliseum for the game in which Reggie Bush turned out a mind-bogglingly amazing performance that basically clinched the Heisman. At Neyland Stadium on Saturday, will I see the Razorbacks' resurgent Darren McFadden do the same thing? Let's hope not, for Tennessee's sake. Still, I think it's always worthwhile to see great players in person, whichever team they're playing for.

Oh yeah, and Tennessee controls its own destiny for the SEC championship. So that's good too. :) Go Big Orange!

GameDay goes to Williams-Amherst game

By Brendan Loy

ESPN GameDay is going to a Division III game for the first time in its history this Saturday, visiting Williams College in Williamstown, Massachusetts for the "Biggest Little Game in America," the 122nd annual showdown between rivals Williams and Amherst.

Autumn in East Tennessee

By Brendan Loy

It took a while because of the drought, but the fall colors are finally in full force in downtown Knoxville.

NCAA to meet with Reggiegate snitch today

By Brendan Loy

A cloud of uncertainty hangs over Trojan Nation today, as Lloyd Lake -- the would-be agent, not the body of water -- will meet with NCAA investigators to discuss the Reggie Bush case.

Er, and no, why of course my use of the word "snitch" in the headline doesn't imply that I don't want the truth to come out. What ever would give you that idea? Ahem.

Anyway, it might seem impossible that USC is going to emerge from this clusterf*** unscathed, but you know what they say: Impossible is nothing.

Previous Reggiegate posts here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.

UPDATE: Trojan fans, this will make you feel better. Vote for Ruth!!

Colbert drops out after S.C. Dems say no

By Brendan Loy

Just 20 days after jumping in, comedian Stephen Colbert has jumped out of the presidential race after being rebuffed by party elders:

His announcement came after the South Carolina Democratic Executive Council voted last week to keep the host of "The Colbert Report" off the state's primary ballot. The vote was 13-3. ...

"Although I lost by the slimmest margin in presidential election history—only 10 votes—I have chosen not to put the country through another agonizing Supreme Court battle," Colbert said Monday in a statement. "It is time for this nation to heal."

Colbert had said he would run only in his native South Carolina, a key primary state. He said he planned to run as a Democrat and a Republican—so he could lose twice. Colbert, 43, later declined to file with the GOP, which has a much higher filing fee ($35,000) than the Democrats ($2,500).

Indeed, as I mentioned before, "the Republicans' filing fee is 14 times higher than the Democrats', but they don't require you to pass muster with some aristocratic 'executive council.' So the Democrats' system is more egalitarian, but less... democratic." And the undemocratic Dems just said no to Colbert. Interesting. More here.

ND's offense: Bad? Yes. Worst ever? Maybe not.

By Brendan Loy

There's been a lot of schadenfreude-ian talk in recent weeks about how Notre Dame's offense might be the worst in college football history.  One Florida blogger has devoted a special category just to tracking the alleged statistical evidence of this dubious distinction. And the talk hasn't just been coming from the Domer-haters. Even the venerable Fighting Irish blog Blue-Gray Sky conceded last month that ND's offense "could go down in history as one of the worst ever produced, if not THE worst."

Now, I'm not going to sit here and defend Notre Dame's offense. It's been terrible. Awful. Bloody abysmal. But to claim, on the basis of nothing more precise or meaningful than an absolute, context-free measure of yards per game, that it might be the OMG WORST OFFENSE EVER!!!, is an indictment of lies, damn lies, and statistics, more than it's an indictment of Notre Dame's putrid offense (which is bad enough without being indicted for crimes it didn't commit, for heaven's sake).

Navy cancels classes to celebrate win

By Brendan Loy

Uh-oh. Now we're going to lose the war, and it's all Charlie Weis's fault:

The Naval Academy canceled classes Monday, giving the 4,400 midshipmen another day to celebrate the football team's first victory over Notre Dame in 44 tries.

Charlie Weis: Giving our brave men & women in uniform an excuse to slack off, and thus helping the terrorists win, since 2007. Way to go, Coach.

;) Just kidding, of course.

This year's Boise State: Boise State?

By Brendan Loy

NOTE: An earlier version of this post was based on an incorrect recollection of the BCS qualification rules; I was thinking the Top 14 is the cutoff for automatic at-large qualification by a non-BCS team, but it's actually the Top 12, which changes things significantly. I've altered the post accordingly.

Looking at this week's BCS standings, I notice something very interesting: while Hawaii (8-0), ranked #14 last week, has slipped to #16 (leapfrogged by Texas and Florida), Boise State (8-1) has risen from #22 to #20, thanks to losses by Alabama and Kentucky (previously #17 and #18, respectively).

Hawaii's schedule is so weak -- though no fault of their own, but rather, due to the utter wimpiness of big-time programs who refused to play them despite being offered as much as $500,000 to do so -- that the Warriors don't even register in the computers at the moment. (That is to say, they're outside of the Top 25 in every single computer, so their computer rating for BCS purposes is a big fat .000.) That may change if they win their last four games, including the November 23 showdown with Boise State, but their computer profile will certainly remain very weak. However, I do believe they'll finish in the Top 12 if they win out, and thus get invited automatically to a BCS bowl.

But what about Boise State? If the Broncos take care of business against the absolutely wretched opponents they face the next two weeks (Utah State and Idaho, a combined 1-18), and then beat Hawaii on the 23rd to earn the WAC championship, could last year's Cinderella become this year's big surprise -- the first one-loss team from a non-BCS conference to earn a trip to a BCS bowl?

I think it's entirely possible. Of course, the weakness of their next two opponents will hurt Boise's computer profile -- but then the strength of their final opponent (Hawaii) will boost it. And attrition among higher-ranked teams will inevitably keep their poll ranking moving up over the next four weeks, if they just keep winning. A bunch of teams currently ranked above them are destined to lose sooner or later: for example, only one of the ACC trio Boston College, Virginia Tech and Virginia can make it to the finish line unscathed. Same goes for USC and Arizona State from the Pac-10, Auburn and Georgia from the SEC, and West Virginia and UConn from the Big East: somebody's gotta lose those games, and with all teams involved being ranked #9 or lower, and the pollsters' tendency to punish teams severely for late losses, there's a pretty good chance the losers will fall behind Boise State. Michigan, too, will fall behind the Broncos if they lose to Ohio State. And of course, Boise can take care of #16 Hawaii itself.

Adding it up, I count between five and seven spots that Boise is likely to climb by pure attrition before season's end, if they win out. That would get them to between #13 and #15: not quite good enough, but close. Add in the likelihood of an extra boost from pollsters if the Broncos pull off what would be a high-profile, nationally televised win over Hawaii, and they'd be even closer. Throw in a couple of upsets -- Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks over Florida, anyone? How about Texas Tech and/or A&M over Texas? -- and the Broncos could be in business.

Alternatively, Boise could take advantage of the rule that gives a non-BCS conference champion an automatic bid if they're ranked between #13 and #16 and ahead a BCS conference champ. Scenarios to consider here: UConn, currently #13, loses one of its next three games, but still wins the Big East by beating West Virginia. Michigan, currently #12, loses at Wisconsin, but still wins the Big Ten by beating Ohio State. Florida, Georgia and Tennessee each lose a game, so the Vols, currently #23, go to the SEC title game with an 8-4 overall record... and win. If any of those things were to happen, Boise State would probably be all set, again assuming they win out.

All things considered, I give Boise State a 50/50 chance of making a BCS bowl -- despite that season-opening loss to Washington -- if they win out.

Once upon a time, I thought the Hawaii-Boise State game in three weeks would be "an absolutely HUGE game, with not just WAC title implications, but BCS implications" for both teams. When the Broncos lost to the Huskies on September 8, it looked like that dream was doomed. But maybe not! Go Broncos & Warriors! Beat various & sundry midgets! Bust the BCS! Again! :)

P.S. ESPN's Brad Edwards (subscription required), of "Road to the BCS," is a bit less bullish than me. He thinks Boise State's only realistic hope is the finishing-ahead-of-a-BCS-conference-champ route: "BSU isn't likely to reach the top 12 (needed for an automatic at-large bid), but top 16 is a possibility, which could get them into a major bowl if the champion of an automatic-bid conference (most likely the ACC) is ranked lower."

I disagree with his "most likely the ACC" comment; I think the Big East is the most likely, at least in terms of the ease of concocting the scenario. UConn would certainly plummet with a loss -- the Huskies' national profile is so low that their high ranking is incredibly tenuous -- and wouldn't gain back that much ground by beating West Virginia (a result which would do more to discredit WVU in the pollsters' eyes than to boost UConn's cred). But perhaps Edwards just thinks it's really unlikely UConn beats WVU. In any event, the ACC certainly could fit the bill as well. The best scenario would be if Virginia loses to Miami but then beats Virginia Tech and wins the title game. Alternatively, BC could beat Clemson, lose to Miami, and then win the title game. Those are, I think, the most likely scenarios where the ACC champ could finish below Boise.

Patriots win, Peterson dazzles

By Brendan Loy

The unbeaten New England Patriots defeated the now-once-beaten Indianapolis Colts in "perhaps the NFL's biggest regular-season game ever" today, 24-20, rallying from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit on the strength of two Tom Brady touchdown passes in a four-minute span. The Pats are now 9-0.

Meanwhile, Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson, formerly of the Oklahoma Sooners, set the NFL single-game rushing record with 296 yards. Wow.

Shuttle & ISS early Monday morning

By Brendan Loy

All across the eastern third of the country, there is a chance tomorrow morning to see the International Space Station and the Space Shuttle fly overhead 20-25 minutes after the Shuttle undocks -- and they'll be surrounded by an awesome celestial show. Bright planet Venus and a slender crescent Moon will be side-by-side, with Saturn nearby and Mars and Mercury on either side of them, and Comet 17P Holmes in the sky as well.

The location of the ISS and Shuttle in the sky will differ depending on where you're located, but they'll flying overhead around the same time everywhere. They'll be directly over the Tallahassee area at 5:51 AM EST, Jacksonville at 5:52, Myrtle Beach at 5:53, Virginia Beach at 5:54, the Atlantic Ocean south of Long Island at 5:55, off Cape Cod at 5:56, and Halifax at 5:57. At each of those times, they'll be visible for hundred of miles in all directions. You can get details for your location at Heavens Above.

Here's what the ISS's path over Knoxville will look like:

Because the flyover will be very soon after undocking, I suspect the spacecrafts will be so close together that they'll be barely distinguishable, like when I saw them over Notre Dame, rather than two distinct points of light, like they were over Nashville. Regardless, with everything else that'll be in the sky, it should be quite a sight. I'm planning to get up early -- very early -- and head over to one of the dark-sky viewing sites used by the Smoky Mountain Astronomical Society.

There should be another flyover Tuesday morning at around 6:15 AM EST, and that one could be more like the Nashville sighting where the ISS and Shuttle are two very distinct lights in the sky. But I'll post more about that later if I decide to get up and see it, too.

UCLA sucks

By Brendan Loy

As an Irish Trojan, I don't subscribe to the notion of the "perfect day" -- a day when USC wins and both UCLA and Notre Dame lose -- but for those more typical Trojans who do, this has to be one of the sweetest "perfect days" in recent memory. USC avenged last year's loss to Oregon State, UCLA got embarrassed by lowly Arizona, and Notre Dame lost to Navy. Man.

As for me, all I can say is Beat the Bears, and Beeeeat Falcons!

And then there were 3

By Brendan Loy

Arizona State's loss to Oregon and Boston College's loss to Florida State mean that the ranks of the unbeaten have shrunk from five to three -- only two of whom are legit national-title contenders. (Hawaii, through no fault of its own, has played such a weak schedule that its computer numbers are way too low to contend for the BCS Top 2; I don't think they have any chance even if the rest of the highly ranked teams suffer a total meltdown over the next four weeks.)

The two remaining unbeatens who matter are #1 Ohio State and #8 Kansas. You'd have to think the Jayhawks, who picked a very good week to pile up some style points against hapless Nebraska, will move ahead of ASU and BC, leapfrog idle West Virginia, and maybe leapfrog Oklahoma too, to reach #5 or #4 next week. The top one-loss teams will be #2 LSU, #3 Oregon and #4/5 OU.

As a side note, can you imagine if UConn had beaten Virginia three weeks ago? The Huskies -- who crushed Rutgers tonight -- would be one of the three remaining unbeatens with a shot at the national title. In football. Unbelievable.

Anyway, back to Kansas. With games coming up against #9 (soon to be #7) Missouri and, if they reach the Big 12 title game, #6 (soon to be #5 or #4) Oklahoma, the undefeated Jayhawks will have plenty of opportunity to earn quality wins before season's end. Notwithstanding the name on their jerseys, I have to believe they'll make it to the championship game if they win out, even if LSU and/or Oregon also wins out.

That brings me to the following scenario. Imagine Ohio State, Kansas and LSU all win out. The Buckeyes and Jayhawks head into the title game with nobody really sure how good they are. Meanwhile, LSU rolls to the SEC championship, the triple-overtime loss at Kentucky their only blemish. Ranked #3 in the final BCS standings, the Tigers go to the Sugar Bowl -- and let's suppose they play a decent, well-respected opponent there. (This is the least likely part of the scenario. The Sugar Bowl picks last among the BCS bowls, so if Hawaii wins out and qualifies, the Warriors will most likely be going to New Orleans. If not, the Sugar Bowl could easily feature some other unwanted stepchild like UConn. But suppose things shake out right, and LSU ends up playing someone like West Virginia, someone they'd get credit for beating.)

Now suppose LSU absolutely crushes its well-respected Sugar Bowl opponent, while Kansas and Ohio State play an ugly, ugly championship game that makes both teams look bad. Let's say Kansas wins. In the process, though, the widespread doubts about both of the relatively untested teams in the title game are confirmed. Do you see yet where I'm going with this? The BCS and coaches poll championship is, of course, awarded to undefeated Kansas, the winner of the title game ... but the Associated Press, in a split vote, gives its #1 spot and share of national championship to the far more impressive-looking Tigers of Louisiana State University, despite their one loss. Suddenly every LSU fan, from sea to shining sea, is forced to go through incredible mental and rhetorical gymnastics trying to explain why their AP championship is legit, while USC only got a "one-peat." Oh, it would be so freaking sweet.

PLEASE, PLEASE, COLLEGE FOOTBALL GODS, MAKE THIS HAPPEN.

Anchors Aweigh

By Brendan Loy

I didn't explicitly say it before, so I just want to echo BGS and say: Congrats to Navy.

They played well, and hard -- as exemplified by this play. They earned this win. They deserve it. Well done, men.

Saban winning loses Saban Bowl

By Brendan Loy

It's Alabama 27, LSU 24 early in the fourth quarter. Will the Tigers go from a national title game contender to missing out on the SEC title game?

Meanwhile, Oregon leads ASU 21-13 at halftime after the Sun Devils' horrible clock management caused them to totally blow a golden opportunity to score before the half.

And UConn is beating Rutgers 18-3. Go Huskies!

Oh, and no score yet between USC and Oregon State. Fight on Trojans! Stuff the Beavers! BTW, for those who, like me, are outside of the ABC regional feed, you can listen live on KSCR.

UPDATE: LSU came back to win, 41-34.

Oregon is up big, 35-16 at the beginning of the fourth quarter. ASU has made a ton of comebacks, but this deficit may be too much even for Dennis Erickson Second-Half Magic to overcome.

And USC leads 10-3.

UPDATE 2: Ducks & Trojans win. USC may yet make it to the Rose Bowl, if Oregon makes it to the BCS title game. The Trojans need to beat Cal, ASU and UCLA, and hope that three of the following four teams lose: Ohio State, Boston College, LSU, Kansas. And BC is losing right now...

P.S. Suppose the title game is Ohio State vs. Oregon. Suppose also that USC wins out and gets picked by the Rose Bowl to replace the Ducks. Who would the Trojans' opponent be? Not Michigan; the Wolverines will fall out of the BCS Top 14 if they lose to the Buckeyes. Not any other Big Ten team; nobody else from that conference will be BCS-eligible, either. Hmm... if LSU loses the SEC title game but is still eligible for a BCS at-large bid, which they probably would be, how about a Trojans-Tigers Rose Bowl?

Navy 46, Notre Dame 44, final in 3 OTs

By Brendan Loy

Let the explosion of anti-Irish schadenfreude begin. From sea to shining sea, every college-football fan who doesn't root for Notre Dame is loving this one. It's Navy's first win over ND in 44 years, ending an NCAA-record 43-game losing streak against a single opponent... and the Irish are now 1-8 this season, 1-10 in their last eleven games. Over at ND Nation, their heads asplode.

Fire Mike Brey Charlie Weis?

P.S. Here's the game story. Linked page also contains a clip of Lou Holtz's ESPN pep talk... for Navy. I guess it worked.

UPDATE: Dylan at the Blue-Gray Sky writes: "Ask not for whom the bell tolls, Charlie. It tolls for thee. Great recruiter. Great coordinator. Not a very good head coach."

ND-Navy close so far; Buffalo up early

By Brendan Loy

Notre Dame and Navy are tied at 7 early in the second quarter, as Notre Dame attempts to improve to 2-10 in its last 12 games, while Navy attempts to improve to 1-43 in the last 44 years against the Irish. ND is only a 3-point favorite at home over the Midshipmen. [UPDATE: While I was writing this, Notre Dame scored, and now it's 14-7. GOOOO IRISH! BEEEEAT NAVY!]

Meanwhile, in a game that could determine the MAC East championship, Buffalo -- a 7-point underdog on the road -- is up 7-3 over Miami of Ohio in the first quarter.

But the score of the afternoon right now is this one: Kansas 69, Nebraska 31... with three minutes left in the third quarter.

UPDATE: It's 21-14 Irish at halftime, and 17-7 Miami over Buffalo late in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the final score in Lawrence was Kansas 76, Nebraska 39. Ouch!

UPDATE 2: Buffalo has rallied to tie the game at halftime. Go Bulls!

UPDATE 3: Are we about to witness history? Navy has taken a 28-21 lead with just over 10 minutes left in the game. Sharpley fumbled the ball deep in Irish territory, and a Midshipmen defender rumbled in for a touchdown. ND Nation is in full meltdown mode.

Meanwhile, Buffalo trails 31-20 late in the third quarter.

UPDATE 4: Tie game, 28-28, 3:17 left. Navy ball.

UPDATE 5: The Irish got the ball back, and had a 4th and 8 on the Navy 28, needing only a field goal to win... but instead of trying the 42-yard attempt, they went for it, Sharpley got sacked, and we're going to overtime.

An ND Nation poster writes: "I just don't have any energy left to support Chuck. His playcalling today has been at least as bad as Wild Bill's [Callahan, I think]. His choice to not even attempt that FG was almost as bad as Ty punting from BC's 30. Time to start the coaching search." Lots of other comments along the same lines (though some disagree).

UPDATE 6: Buffalo lost, 31-28. :(

UPDATE 7: Phew! Notre Dame survives overtime #2, managing to hold Navy to a field goal after only getting a FG themselves, and we're going to a triple overtime. 38-38.

UPDATE 8: Navy's quarterback gets his sixth and seventh completed passes of the entire game for a 25-yard touchdown and two-point conversion to open the third overtime. Amazing. 46-38 Navy. Irish ball.

UPDATE 9: Navy wins.

To be honest, I'm glad they got the two-point conversion on the second try, because the interference call on the first try was ridiculous. He went for the ball, and that's exactly what he got. The only thing he "interfered" with was the football, and I'm pretty sure that's allowed. It would have been a travesty if Navy had lost because of that call.

League Champs!

By Michael Walsh

For the second straight season, my oldest daughter's school volleyball team won their league. Now it's off to the playoffs.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

-- Pakistan's President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has declared a state of emergency, CNN confirms.

The Teetering Twelve

By Brendan Loy

Last week, for the first time all season, relative predictability reigned in college football. Yes, Georgia upset Florida and Mississippi State stunned Kentucky, and yes, we all learned to our great surprise that UConn is apparently for real... but in the big picture, it was a calm Week 9, at least in comparison to Weeks 1-8.

Of particular note, all five undefeated teams were in action last week -- three of them on the road, three of them against ranked opponents, four of them favored by four points or less -- and yet all five won. That's the first time all season a week has gone by without a previously undefeated team suffering its first loss. So the Fantastic Five is still a Fantastic Five. And only four of the Edgy Eleven one-loss teams lost -- three of them to another one-loss or undefeated team. The only team from last week's list of contenders to lose to someone off the radar was Virginia, which fell at N.C. State. So we're left with a Skittish Seven.

Perhaps it makes sense that last week was relatively predictable, though. After all, I had predicted unpredictability, declaring: "[Nearly] every...team with a zero or a one in the loss column is potentially vulnerable, at least on paper." So, in this season when what's "on paper" matters less than ever, it figures that the college football gods would defy prediction by being predictable when many people were predicting unpredictability. :)

If that's right, then this week will probably be the upset-fest that I expected last week to be, because -- on paper -- this one looks like it should be a calm week. Of the remaining five undefeated and seven one-loss teams (collectively, the "Teetering Twelve" -- teetering, that is, on the edge of elimination from title contention), aside from the showdown between ASU (8-0) and Oregon (7-1), there are only two road games (LSU at Alabama, Missouri at Colorado), and only one matchup that screams "potential upset" (UConn vs. Rutgers). Most of the teams on our list are expected to handle this week's opponents fairly easily. Which, given the way this season has gone, probably means they won't.

Anyway, without further ado, here are your Fantastic Five and Skittish Seven. Oh, and let's not forget the Terrible Two: Florida International and Utah State, both 0-8. (Marshall earned its way out of the Threadbare Three last week with a win over Rice.) Here goes...

Booty's back

By Brendan Loy

You know it's an unusual season in the land of Troy when you go to usctrojans.com on the Friday afternoon before a football game -- the Homecoming football game, in fact -- and the top story is "USC BASKETBALL 2007: Five Questions For O.J. Mayo." Heh. (The Trojans are #18 in both preseason basketball polls -- one spot higher than their current BCS ranking.)

Anyway, John David Booty will start for USC against Oregon State tomorrow. It'll be his chance to avenge the loss that started his team's recent Pac-10 slide (the Trojans are 6-4 in their last 10 conference games, after winning a zillion in a row prior to last year's loss in Corvallis). But unless we go to a sports bar, Becky and I won't be able to watch it; we'll get Florida State-Boston College instead.

But that's okay, because honestly, I'm more interested in watching the big Pac-10 game of the week (nay, year!), #4 Arizona State at #5 Oregon, especially now that it's been announced that Rudy Carpenter will play for ASU despite a sprained thumb on his throwing hand. That's good news for Stewart Mandel, who wrote that "seven hours is a long way for me to fly to watch some backup," and also for ESPN, which rescued the game from Fox Sports Net oblivion by buying the rights to broadcast it nationally in those regions not served by the originally planned regional FSN telecast. (Sadly for the folks in Oregon and Arizona -- and Southern California, I think -- they still have to watch it on crappy FSN.)

If the Sun Devils, who are 7-point underdogs despite their higher ranking, manage to beat the Ducks this week, and follow it up with a win over UCLA next week (don't count out the worst-coached team in America; following up losses to Utah, Notre Dame and Wazzu with a win over 9-0 Arizona State would be totally in line with Karl Dorrell's baffling of neverending inconsistency), they'd be 10-0 when USC comes to town on Thanksgiving Day. I wonder, if that happens, which of her alma maters would Becky -- who went to ASU for grad school, remember -- root for? Normally she, like me, roots for the Trojans against all comers, but if a USC win would just mean the difference between Some Crappy Bowl and Some Other Crappy Bowl, whereas an ASU win would get the Sun Devils within one win (against Arizona) of the national championship game... I dunno what she'd do. Becky? (Yeah, I could just ask her in person, but asking her over the blog is more fun in this case. :)

Something we can agree on?

By dcl

10 points to the person that has the best joke by midnight: Disney closes Small World

Scare at Arizona nuke plant

By Brendan Loy

Drudge has a siren up declaring: "SCARE AT LARGEST U.S. NUKE PLANT." He elaborates: "Security at the Palo Verde Nuclear power plant 50 miles west of Phoenix, Arizona stopped a worker from driving onto the grounds with a small explosive device, according to officials... Developing..."

Becky and I have driven past that nuke plant (it's a bit south of I-10 heading west to L.A.) many times, and when we lived in the Phoenix area, we were acutely aware of its presence off to our west. I won't say we lost sleep over it, but it was one reason (among many) that we were glad to be in the East Valley. :)

Anyway, I don't know if this will turn out to be anything real, or just a false alarm of some kind, but it certainly startled me.

UPDATE: What Drudge calls a "small explosive device," KPHO calls "a small capped pipe that contained suspicious residue." The latter is much more susceptible to an innocent explanation. I'm guessing false alarm.

UPDATE 2: On the other hand, the Arizona Republic says "a suspicious item seized Friday morning from the truck of a contract worker at Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station turned out to be an apparent pipe bomb, plant operator Arizona Public Service Co. said." Note the use of the word "apparent." Still, maybe not a false alarm, then. Though I wonder what size pipe bomb. Drudge says it was "small." Could a small pipe bomb blow up a nuclear plant, or cause any sort of serious damage?

Casey's blog: IT'S ALIIIIIVE!!

By Brendan Loy

After several weeks of blog-silence as he finished up his qualifying paper (which he passed -- congrats!), Casey's blog has suddenly exploded today with a whole bunch of new posts -- or rather, a whole bunch of old drafts that he has just now elevated to "published" status. Literally the entire homepage is taken up with stuff that's dated November 2, 2007. And, as usual with Casey, there's a lot of interesting stuff there. Just go to his blog and scroll, scroll, scroll. The heavy stuff is near the top, the funny stuff near the bottom, so keep on scrollin'.

Fun with geography

By Brendan Loy

I just learned that there is a Cheatham County in Tennessee. Naturally, this caused me to go Googling around for some other county names, and I soon discovered that there is a "Dewey County" in Oklahoma and another in South Dakota. Alas, there is apparently no "Howe County" anywhere in the United States. There are, however, cities and townships named "Howe" in Indiana, Oklahoma, Texas and Pennsylvania. One of those municipalities needs to get together with Cheatham County and one of the Dewey Counties to form some sort of sister city/county arrangement of Dewey, Cheatham & Howe.

Wanted: camera & camcorder advice!

By Brendan Loy

Two questions for y'all. First off, does anybody know of a consumer-level (let's say under $400) digital camera that has a maximum exposure (for low-light, long-exposure still photos) of greater than 15 seconds? Like, 30 seconds, maybe? I love the Canon PowerShot line, but they all seem to max out at 15-second exposures, and for Iridium flare photography, I really wish they could do 30. I'm probably not immediately in the market for a new still camera, but I'm just wondering.

Second, more important question: I need a new video camera. My Sony DCR-TRV140 is out-of-warranty and broken (it gives me the dreaded C31:23 error, and the Internet home remedy of "whacking" the camera doesn't work for me), and I want a functional digital camcorder before the baby arrives. So I'm wondering if y'all have any suggestions.

To be clear, I'm looking for a reasonably inexpensive consumer-level camcorder -- not some sort of super-advanced, super-expensive pro-level monstrosity that has eight thousand features I'll never use. Also, if my new camera were a Digital8, that would be ideal, since that's the format that all my previous tapes are in. However, I realize Digital8 is a proprietary Sony format and thus limits my options considerably, so I'm certainly willing to consider a switch to MiniDV or some other format -- though then I'll have to figure out how to play my old Digital8 tapes (maybe by buying something old and cheap off eBay?).

I don't demand a lot from my camcorders, in terms of bells & whistles. For instance, I don't care at all about digital zoom (only optical zoom matters), and razzle-dazzle digital effects do nothing for me. I just want something relatively cheap that works well. That said, one feature I actually do care about, which most camera manufacturers seem not to care about, is the ease of manually focusing when necessary. I used to have a camcorder where there was a simple, physical button up front, near the lens, that served as both 1) the toggle switch between auto & manual focus and 2) the focus wheel. That was ideal. By contrast, some camcorders these days require you to navigate a lengthy menu and press buttons four or five or six times, just to make the camera focus on something in the foreground instead of the background. That's ridiculous. I want a reasonably intuitive interface for that essential camera function. Other than that... um... I'm not sure what else I really need in a camcorder. It doesn't take a lot a fancy-schmancy digital wizardry to take cute videos of a baby. :) But you tell me. What should I be looking at? I haven't been in the market for a camcorder for like six years, so I don't really know what's out there in any detail or depth. Suggestions? Thoughts?

Torre to LA?

By JLR

Will Joe Torre go to the Dodgers?  (And equally important, will he bring those Yankee Free Agents like A-Rod, Posada, and Rivera with him ... and Don Mattingly, too?)

Update: It's official: Torre will take the position vacated by Grady Little (may Red Sox Nation curse his name forever).  Now to see what Yankees staff he brings with him to LA. 

In other news: Joe Girardi has taken the number 27 because the Yankees have won 26 World Series, and he wants to be manager during #27.  Dumb.  His former number with New York, 25, is currently being worn by Jason Giambi (though he war #52 when he was a coach with New York in 2005)

It's beginning to look a lot like...

By Brendan Loy

They're building an artificial Christmas tree in downtown Knoxville's Krutch Park. I guess, now that Halloween is over, we rush headlong into the next season. Only 54 shopping days left!! :)

New idea

By dcl

In the name of fiscal responsibility, I'd like to say I would support a Warren Buffett candidacy for president.

(Note, as cool as it would be I don't think a Warren Buffett Jimmy Buffett ticket would be a good idea, Warren is 77 after all, and we don't really need our president floating around on a sail boat in the Caribbean.)

Giuliani & the GOP: a premature "I told you so"

By Brendan Loy

Among some of my liberal friends (and some commenters on this blog), it has long been an article of faith that Rudy Giuliani cannot win the Republican nomination because he's too socially liberal and has too shady of a personal life. According to them, those closed-minded Republican religious wackos would never vote for a pro-choice, pro-gay, twice-divorced candidate who once dressed in drag -- never, under any circumstances, regardless of his strength (or perceived strength) on other issues like terrorism and national security.

I happen to think the Republican base is a little bit less monolithic and one-dimensional than that, so I have repeatedly argued against this viewpoint for the last several years. (I think it's come up a few times on the blog, and I can also remember several conversations along these lines in the law school lounge.) I don't deny that Giuliani's socially liberal stances are a liability with your average GOP voter, but I've never believed they are the overwhelming, insurmountable liability that left-wing oversimplification of the conservative psyche would suggest.

Now, with the primaries fast approaching and Giuliani continuing to look like the front-runner, Ann Althouse says the oversimplifiers, like New York Times columnist Frank Rich, are finally having second thoughts:

Why is Rudy doing so well? People in the know used to think the rubes just didn't realize Rudy has dressed in drag and once lived with 2 gay guys; they just remembered him as the star of that 9/11 show they saw on TV that one time.

But now it's dawning on the pundits that Americans probably know all that stuff by now, so why isn't Rudy sunk? They're shuffling around for explanations. You could say "terrorism fears trump everything," or "the rest of the field is weak." But Rich thinks the right answer is that Americans really aren't as narrow-minded as they are portrayed...

I agree, except that it isn't Americans who have been portrayed as narrow-minded, it's Republicans. Let's be clear about that.

Anyway, Rich focuses on the extent to which "self-promoting values hacks" like James Dobson and Gary Bauer have puffed up their own importance, and that's certainly true. But in an odd way, the far left has collaborated with the far right to create the "rarely questioned conventional wisdom...that no Republican can...win the presidency without pandering...to the most bullying and gay-baiting power brokers of the religious right." For Dobson, Bauer, et. al., the benefits of this CW are obvious: it makes them seem more important than they are. For the oversimplifiers on the left, the motivation is quite different: painting all Republicans as Dobson clones is a lovely straw-man argument, lending itself nicely to the all-too-common lefty conceit that liberals are the only tolerant, decent, rational people in this country. (Many conservatives, to be fair, do the same thing to liberals, painting them with a broad brush based on the words and actions of a zealous few. In fact, I must admit that I may have been guilty of doing this on, er, one or two occasions. But I think it's more widespread on the left, though I admit that's a subjective perception that can be neither proven nor disproven.)

Anyway, Rich points out something that some of us who don't spend our time hanging out in the New York Times newsroom noticed a while ago: that Dobson & co. "don't speak for the Republican Party. They no longer speak for many evangelical ministers and their flocks. The emperors of morality have in fact had no clothes for some time." (Now there's an unpleasant mental image... shudder.)

Rich concludes that "should Rudy Giuliani end up doing a victory dance at the Republican convention, it will be on their graves." Yes. But it will also be on the graves of the armchair pundits on the left who have long insisted that Republicans are too one-dimensional and closed-minded to even seriously consider nominating someone like Giuliani.

(Hat tip: InstaPundit.)

P.S. On a related note, I'm feeling pretty good at the moment about my two-year-old dinner bet on the GOP presidential race.

P.P.S. Here's more from Rich on the disconnect between evangelicals and their alleged "leaders":

But the most significant — and happiest — explanation for the values czars' demise as a political force is that white evangelical Christians and a new generation of evangelical leaders have themselves steadily tacked a different course from the Dobson crowd. A CBS News poll this month parallels what the Times reporter David D. Kirkpatrick found in his examination of evangelicals for today's Times Magazine. Like most other Americans, they are more interested in hearing from presidential candidates about the war in Iraq and health care than about any other issues.

Abortion and same-sex marriage landed at the bottom of that list; fighting poverty outpolled abortion as a personal priority by a 3-to-2 margin. To see just how large a gap separates that evangelical electorate from the values organizations that purport to speak in its name, just look at the Values Voter Summit that the Family Research Council convened to much press attention in Washington last weekend. In a survey of participants to determine which issue would be "most important" in choosing a presidential candidate, the summit's organizers didn't even think to list the war, health care or fighting poverty among the 12 hot-button options.

The Values Voter Summit's survey of the attendees' presidential preferences showed just as large a disconnect. Rudy Giuliani came in next to last (behind Tom Tancredo, ahead of John McCain) in the field of nine candidates, earning only 1.85 percent of the vote. By contrast, among white evangelicals nationwide in the CBS News poll, he was in a statistical dead heat for first place with Fred Thompson; indeed, Mr. Giuliani's 26 percent among evangelicals nearly matches his showing among all Republican voters. The discrepancy between the CBS poll and the summit survey leaves you wondering who exactly follows Dr. Dobson and Mr. Perkins beyond the ticket buyers who showed up for their media circus last weekend at the Washington Hilton.

Indeed.