Irish Trojan in Tennessee

Sullivan, Lopez battle for USC pool win

By Brendan Loy

As some of you have doubtless noticed, I haven't actually gotten around to posting an official update on the USC and Notre Dame prediction contests... all season long. Um, yeah, sorry about that!

Luckily, commenter and contestant Ken Stern has posted several unofficial updates, most recently on November 11... and if that update was correct (and I have no reason to believe otherwise, indeed my spot-checking confirms his calculations), two contestants -- Sean Sullivan and Vicki Lopez -- remain alive to win the USC pool, with the outcome to be decided by tomorrow's USC-UCLA game.

Sullivan and Lopez are among 13 contestants with 9-2 prediction records, but they have the lowest "point differentials" of the bunch, meaning they have come the closest to picking USC's margin of victory or defeat in each game. Lopez is a total of 104 points off to date, while Sullivan is a total of 106 points off. Sullivan picked USC to beat UCLA by 17; Lopez picked the Trojans to win by 27. That means Sullivan will win if USC either loses or wins by 20 points or less; Lopez will win if the Trojans win by 22 or more. If USC wins by exactly 21 points, they would finish tied, with identical point differentials of 110 and no further tiebreakers to separate them.

Interestingly enough, with the point spread set at 20 by most oddsmakers, the prediction contest almost literally comes down to a question of whether the Trojans cover. If they don't, Sullivan wins. If they do, Lopez wins, unless they win by exactly 20 (Sullivan still wins) or by 21 (it's a tie).

Anyway, the big question is, can Lopez (a.k.a. "Vicki from NJ") finally win a BrendanLoy.com contest? Three times -- in the 2005 and 2006 Oscar pools and the 2006 women's NCAA pool -- she has been in position to win heading into the final event of a contest, only to lose at the wire. Can the Trojans win big, and break the "Lopez Curse" tomorrow? :)

In the Notre Dame pool, by the way, Sandy Underpants won, clinching early and never looking back even as he went 1-3 through the last four games of the season. He correctly predicted that the Irish would go 3-9, but he managed to get four games wrong along the way (he thought they'd lose to UCLA and Stanford, but beat Navy and Air Force) to finish with an 8-4 prediction record. That was better than anyone else, though. Andrew Long and Ken Stern, who both thought the Irish would 6-6, tied for second with 7-5 prediction records (both missed the Michigan State, Purdue, UCLA, Navy and Air Force games); Stern finished second on the basis of a lower point differential (183 to 197). No one else got fewer than six games wrong.

I'll try to post full, official standings of both pools at some point. Maybe by the time the baby starts kindergarten. :)

Nebraska picks Pelini over Gill

By Brendan Loy

Nebraska's new head coach will reportedly be LSU's Bo Pelini, not Buffalo's Turner Gill. YAY!!! (Hat tip: DUP and Scientizzle.)

They're ecstatic over at UBfan.com.

Hopefully this means Gill stays at UB and builds that program for at least a good while longer. He's been mentioned as a possible candidate for some other openings (e.g. Duke, Wazzu), but it was widely believed that Nebraska in particular was the one job he'd drop everything for. If so, then the Bulls have dodged a major bullet. It'd be great to see them continue to build on this year's improvement, with Gill at the helm.

UPDATE: No comment from Nebraska's interim athetic director, interim coach, and possibly interim quarterback and interim kicker, Tom Osborne.

Meanwhile, it's looking like a mass exodus from Baton Rouge, with rumors on the Internets saying that LSU head coach Les Miles already has one foot out the door, heading for to Ann Arbor.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Police arrest suspect to end hostage standoff at Hillary Clinton's campaign offices in Rochester, New Hampshire.

Dorrell blames Willingham Toledo

By Brendan Loy

Karl Dorrell is begging for one more year as UCLA's head coach. In the course of making his case, he says this: "I hate to say it, but the guy who was before me screwed it up for me. And I had to clean it up and then rebuild." That's right, folks, Dorrell is blaming Bob Toledo, who was fired in 2002, for the Bruins' continued woes. And you thought the Notre Dame fans still blaming Ty Willingham were bad!! And this is coming from Dorrell himself!! LOL!! Way to take responsibility. You stay classy, Coach Dorrell.

More good stuff at DumpDorrell.com.

Alas, while I personally would love to see Dorrell stick around as UCLA's coach forever, I'm afraid it is USC's sad duty to dispense with him once and for all tomorrow. Ah, well -- it'll be well worth it, of course, not just for the Rose Bowl bid, not just for the win over our hated rival, but also for the pictures of Mike Tran driving around L.A. in his sweet Trojanmobile on Rose Bowl day.

BEAT THE BRUINS!!!

P.S. I checked the Bruins' roster, and in case anyone was wondering, no, UCLA does not have any sixth-year seniors, so Dorrell can't say he's still playing with Toledo's recruits. ;)

Hostages being held at Clinton campaign office

By David K.

Not sure how this hasn't been posted as a CNN alert yet, but an ongoing hostage situation is underway at Hillary Clinton's campaign office in Rochester, NH.  Senator Clinton is in Washington and has canceled her schedule for the day.  More info here.

CNN Breaking News

By CNN

Legendary motorcycle stuntman Evel Knievel died Friday, according to evelknievel.com

Man killed by exploding cellphone....or not

By David K.

A story came out of Korea a few days ago, reported on by the blog Engadget, about the death of a quarry worker that was being initially blamed on his cellphone.  According to the story he was found dead with the remains of the burned cellphone in his pocket.  Of course it all sound a little suspicious and investigation by the local authorities found that the mans injuries were too extensive to have been caused by a possible exploding battery.  How extensive you ask?  Well since the actual cause of death was being backed into by a 15 ton hydraulic rig driven by a coworker, i'm guessing there were pretty severe. The co-worker who fabricated the story of hearing an explosion and finding the body, later admitted to the crime and is being charged with manslaughter.

So there you have it, even if your cellphone explodes it probably won't do so with enough force to give you injuries equivalent to being hit by a 15 ton vehicle.  Don't you feel much better now?

Last call for baby pool entries

By JLR

Now that Becky is entering the last month before her due date, I am calling on her friends and family who have not already done so to enter the Irish Trojan Baby Pool today!  I am cutting off all entries at 12:00 midnight (Eastern) tonight. 

Why am I doing this?  Since the due date is usually only a "best guess," the baby is most likely to arrive a couple of weeks early, a couple of weeks late, or anywhere in between.  After talking to Brendan a month or so ago, we agreed that today would be the LAST day for entries.

Also note, guesses placed on this entry's comments will not be counted.  Please click here (again, that's here) to enter.

[NOTE: This post will stay on top of the homepage for the rest of the day. New posts will appear below it. -ed.]

Trojans beat OU; Kansas, Memphis next

By Brendan Loy

 

USC, having rejoined the Top 25 this week after routing Southern Illinois on Sunday, defended their #22 ranking with a 66-55 win over Oklahoma at the Galen Center yesterday. Freshmen Devon Jefferson and O.J. Mayo, pictured above, led the way with 23 and 18 points, respectively. Up next for the Trojans: a home date with #4-ranked Kansas on Sunday, followed by a trip to #3-ranked Memphis on Tuesday.

And then they wonder why we think they are nuts

By dcl

Seriously, if you don't want the west to get incredulous with you, don't do #$@& like this. Death? For naming a teddy bear Mohammed? Setting aside the fact that the Teddy Bear itself is named after one this nation's best regarded presidents, or that Winnie the Pooh is named after one Winston Churchill. Do you really think anyone would get this upset if someone named a stuffed toy Jesus Christ (Brendan might even have one so named). I mean, even the most religiously conservative Christian Nation you could find wouldn't call for death in a case like this, would they? I mean the worst case scenario would be you get told it's insensitive to name the toy Jesus and you'd be asked to change it. And heck, people drink umbrella drinks from buddha cups and nobody seems to get particularly offended by this--even though consuming intoxicants violates one of the Buddhist's five precepts. Okay, I'm done grumbling...

The bet, 2007 edition

By Brendan Loy

Two years ago, Mike Tran and I made a friendly bet on the USC-UCLA game, which, thanks to USC's 66-19 win, resulted in Mike becoming a Trojan for a day.

Last year, we made another bet, and needless to say, things didn't go quite as well for me. The Trojans lost 13-9, so I had to wear Mike's UCLA jersey to our Professional Responsibility class, and publish a blog post about "Why UCLA is superior to USC." The latter was particularly galling because, as a rule, I like to be truthful and accurate in what I post on the blog. Posting such blatant lies was borderline unethical. ;)

Mike and I have made other friendly bets over the last two years on games of peripheral interest (USC-ND, ND-UCLA, UCLA-Gonzaga), most recently resulting in me officially owning him, but it's when our undergrad alma maters meet that the stakes are highest -- and in those contests, we're each 1-1. Tomorrow, though, somebody will break the tie.

Here are the terms: If USC wins, Mike has to buy a USC car flag, and must put it (and keep it) on his car December 31 and January 1. So he'll be driving around L.A. flying Trojan colors on the day before, and the day of, the Rose Bowl... muahahaha. He also has to get a picture, well in advance, of himself with the flag-adorned car, and send me a copy of said picture, so that I can set it to post automatically on the blog on January 1 (in case I'm in the hospital that day, which is a distinct possibility). Oh, and when he's done with the flag, he has to send it to me, and I get to keep it.

If UCLA wins, I have to do much the same thing, but for a longer period of time -- that's our way of dealing with the odds, because USC is favored by 20 points, but we're betting straight-up on the game. So if the Bruins are victorious, I have to buy a UCLA car flag and keep it on my car for seven days: to and from work on five weekdays and all day long on two weekend/holiday days. And I have to post a different picture of it on the blog (presumably via cell phone) every single day. (Ugh... that would be a nightmare, because I probably won't be blogging much in late December and early January, so the homepage would most likely be dominated by pictures of the UCLA flag.)

If UCLA plays in the Rose Bowl, New Year's Day must be one of the weekend/holiday days, unless we spend that day at the hospital. My end of the bargain is more flexible about the dates than his because of the uncertain timing of the baby's arrival. (Obviously, Mike doesn't want me to get credit for leaving the flag on the car while it's parked at the hospital for 48+ hours, out of sight and out of mind.) But I have to do it at some point during bowl season. And, again, when I'm done with the flag, I have to send it to Mike, and he keeps it.

So there you have it. If USC loses, I'm sending Pete Carroll my therapy bills for the humiliation I'll suffer from driving around town looking like a bandwagon fUCLA fan. Ugh. FIGHT ON TROJANS, BEAT THE BRUINS!!!

Turner Gill named MAC's top coach

By Brendan Loy

University at Buffalo head football coach Turner Gill, who was interviewed on Monday for the Nebraska job, has in the mean time been named MAC coach of the year for guiding the historically hapless Bulls to their best Division I-A season ever, with a record of 5-7. Which, incidentally, is identical to Nebraska's record this season. Raise your hand if you saw that coming before the season started.

UPDATE: In a development that should surprise no one, ESPN is reporting that "Nebraska has narrowed its search to two candidates: Turner Gill, head coach at Buffalo, and Bo Pelini, the defensive coordinator at LSU." Those two have been considered the front-runners all along.

Pelini! Pick Pelini!

UPDATE 2: Mum's the word:

As the University at Buffalo football team was being honored at halftime of Thursday’s basketball game against Tulane, the Bulls’ student section made their feelings clear about Turner Gill.

“Turner stay, Turner stay!” they chanted. “Turner stay!”

Afterward, the only thing Gill wanted to discuss was UB football, not the possibility of becoming the next coach at Nebraska. Gill, a front-runner for the job almost from the time Tom Osborne became the interim athletics director at the school, declined comment on anything Cornhuskers related Thursday.

“Unable to comment,” Gill said. “That’s all I can say.”

Also Thursday, Osborne declared himself the interim coach until he hires a successor to Bill Callahan, allowing Nebraska’s beloved former coach to visit prospective recruits and try to prevent the program from slipping during the recruiting contact period. Osborne said he hoped to have a new coach by next week.

Gill, who according to sources met with Nebraska officials Monday, was also asked if he had been contacted by other schools, and also declined comment. Gill’s name has surfaced for openings at Washington State as well as Duke. He said he remains committed to coaching at UB.

The basketball team beat Tulane, by the way.

USC to leave Coliseum, play at Rose Bowl?!

By Brendan Loy

USC says it may move its home games from the Coliseum to the Rose Bowl starting next season, due to a breakdown in negotiations with Coliseum management. Scott Wolf says this announcement, particularly in light of its timing the week before the UCLA game, "really smells like a negotiating ploy by USC to pressure the Coliseum into agreeing to its demands," which Wolf suspects involve not just "improvements" but "revenue-sharing plans (like luxury suites)." Here's how USC's top lawyer, senior vice president for administration Todd Dickey, characterizes the university's demands:

"Our first choice is to play at the Coliseum. However, the Coliseum needs some significant improvements. The sound system is barely audible, the video system is failing, the bathrooms need upgrades, the entrances, the seats, the lighting, just about everything needs work."

Dickey says USC "has offered to make those improvements," but the university doesn't want to "just to hand the money over to the Coliseum Commission" -- it wants to "actually operate the facility." That, naturally, is the sticking point. The quasi-public Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Commission doesn't want to hand over the keys of the kingdom to those high-falutin' University of Spoiled Children snobs. [/sarcasm] The L.A. Times opines: "some political observers have suggested that commissioners would like to avoid making themselves superfluous." You think?

The Rose Bowl is a neat and historic venue (of course, so is the Coliseum!), and this would be a return to tradition of the Trojans and Bruins sharing the same home stadium (the Bruins were at the Coliseum from 1928 through 1981), and perhaps both wearing their home jerseys when they square off each season. But it would stink for USC students. The walk to the nearby Coliseum -- kicking that flagpole for good luck on the way, and then walking past the rose garden, and past the local Mexican food vendors selling churros and such -- is a memorable aspect of football Saturdays at 'SC. Braving traffic on the 110 to Pasadena would be far less romantic, and far more inconvenient.

And of course, it would stink for the L.A. economy, too, from hotels and restaurants on down to those food vendors I mentioned, not to mention the locals who charge obscene prices for parking near the stadium. As a result, Mayor Villaraigosa is raising a ruckus, pontifficating about how he is "absolutely committed" to maintaining the status quo: "USC football is one of the most important economic engines in South Los Angeles and the Mayor has no interest in seeing those jobs leave for Pasadena." I'm not sure whether the Mayor's "interests" matter for present purposes, except perhaps to get the Trojans some bad press from Telemundo, but I suppose he might be able to pressure the Coliseum Commission to make USC happy. [UPDATE: Boi From Troy, who, as an Angeleno, has far better knowledge than I of the strange quasi-governmental structures they have out there, points out that Mayor Villaraigosa "matters because he directly appoints 2 of 9 Coliseum Commission members." Well then! I stand corrected. But my error was totally worth it for the Mirthala Salinas joke.]

In any event, Pete Carroll isn't concerned about a possible move to the Rose Bowl. "It's kind of been our second home since we've been here," he says. Heh. Indeed.

Some players, however, aren't taking the news so well. The Coliseum is "my home," said linebacker Keith Rivers. "I wouldn't want to change that." Added offensive linesman Jeff Byers: "[You can take our lives but] you can't take away the Coliseum. [I AM WILLIAM WALLACE!!]"

I'll just say this. If, heaven forbid, USC loses to UCLA on Saturday, it almost certainly won't be because the players were distracted by this news. But no one will be able to prove that that wasn't a contributing factor, and as a result, people will talk about it, and they'll wonder, and they'll gripe. The university will take a lot of heat for its ridiculously poor (well-calculated, no doubt, but in the grand scheme of things, poor) timing here. And rightfully so.

Of course, there's a simple way to avoid that problem: BEAT THE BRUINS!!!

P.S. On the bright side, a move to the Rose Bowl would mean USC students wouldn't have to deal with being physically assaulted by Coliseum rent-a-cops.

P.P.S. Also, a doubleheader at the Rose Bowl next November 8 -- Oregon State @ UCLA, then Cal @ USC -- would be way fun. Er, except for the hellacious traffic, that is.

It's Nutt-y in Oxford

By Jay Johnson

Ole Miss has hired Houston Nutt to take over the head coaching duties for the nightmarishly bad Rebels football team.

Bowling for mediocrity

By Brendan Loy

Out of curiosity, is anyone excited about any of these projected bowl matchups?

I mean, not that Rutgers vs. Ball State in Toronto won't be awesome... not that a UCLA-BYU rematch in the Las Vegas Bowl wouldn't be thrilling... but it does sort of seem like the craziest college-football season in the history of mankind has left us with, at least on paper, a somewhat lackluster postseason. Of course, what's "on paper" means nothing this year, right? But still.

Personally, if all of Mandel's bowl predictions were to prove correct, here are the Top 5 games I'd be most interested in watching:

McCain?

By Brendan Loy

There's been some right-blogospheric chatter in recent weeks about giving John McCain a second look, and after watching his latest ad, Andrew Sullivan wonders whether McCain is "going to become the Kerry of this election cycle: dismissed as old hat for months and then newly relevant in the weeks before the primaries." Maybe. Here's the ad:

My two-year-old dinner bet notwithstanding, I'd like to see McCain make a comeback. Whether I want him to be president, I'm not sure, but at least he's a grown-up, and at least he has actual beliefs and principles, unlike some candidates I could mention (cough cough, Mitt Romney).

P.S. Glenn Reynolds is less impressed, paraphrasing McCain's ad as saying, "Don't hate me because I'm smarter than you."

Al & George

By Brendan Loy

Heh:

Hey, wasn't there a SNL sketch about this?

Coaching carousel update

By Brendan Loy

Washington State's Bill Doba: fired.

Georgia Tech's Chan Gailey: fired.

Duke's Ted Roof: fired.

Southern Miss's Jeff Bower: fired.

And finally, Arkansas's Houston Nutt: inexplicably offered a new contract, which he inexplicably turned down, possibly to go to Ole Miss.

P.S. Oh, and Syracuse's Greg Robinson may be next.

UCLA's Karl Dorrell will, of course, have a job for at least five days. I wonder: if the Bruins somehow beat USC and go to the Rose Bowl, will they still fire Dorrell? And if so, will he be the first coach ever to be fired immediately after leading his team to the Rose Bowl? Heh.

UPDATE: ESPN.com has created an incredibly helpful coaching carousel page with a list of all the departing coaches and (eventually) their successors. Cool.

A Lott of goodbyes

By JLR

Senator Trent Lott (R-Miss) has announced his retirement, effective sometime in December or January.  Though his temporary replacement will be nominated and placed by Republican Governor of Mississippi, Haley Barbour, this is a stunning turn for Republicans in the Senate.  As the #2 Republican in the Senate (and formerly the #1 Republican and Majority Leader), Lott made himself a lot of friends and made himself a lot of enemies--especially after his comments about how it would have been great if a segregationist candidate (Strom Thurmond) had won the 1948 presidential race.

What's my take?  Anytime a powerful conservative decides to leave either house of the Congress, I'm perfectly happy.  Of course, chances are good that Arizona Senator John Kyl, who is loads more conservative than most of the Republicans in Congress, will take over as minority whip.  Then again, it's possible that someone else might overtake him.  It's also possible that either Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX) or Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), both of whom are more moderate than Kyl, might run for the #3 spot. 

In all, though, it probably won't matter much between now and--at the very least--2009 when the new Congress takes over.  As long as Democrats maintain a majority, it seems much less likely that this change will have a major effect on legislation.  True, a conservative leadership on the Republican side of the aisle would make bipartisanship more difficult (just as a liberal leadership on the Democratic side would).  However, the immediate impact would not be as large as it would have been if the Republicans still controlled the Senate.

Hurricane forecasters say seasonal errors are hurting their credibility

By Brendan Loy

The Miami Herald has an excellent article about the third consecutive high-profile failure of seasonal hurricane forecasts to closely approximate reality. (The forecasted storm totals were way too low in 2005, way too high in 2006, and substantially too high in 2007.) The article focuses, quite rightly IMHO, on the fear that these forecasting failures are lowering the public's confidence in the much more important -- and much more accurate -- operational forecasts regarding individual storms that the National Hurricane Center does such an excellent job with. I talked about this issue in my season wrap-up for Pajamas Media, and the Herald keys on it as well. Excerpt:

[G]iven the errors -- which can undermine faith in the entire hurricane warning system -- are these full-season forecasts doing more harm than good? [Yes. -ed.]

''The seasonal hurricane forecasters certainly have a lot of explaining to do,'' said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center. ...

Mayfield and virtually all hurricane researchers and forecasters, some of whom were skeptical years ago, now support the issuing of full-season predictions. [Why?? -ed.]

But many openly share concerns about the current system, focusing in particular on NOAA's tendency to subtly link the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County to the seasonal forecasts produced by [Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal forecaster]'s team, which is based in Maryland.

In fact, it is important to emphasize the distinction between the six-month seasonal forecasts and the real-time forecasts of an actual hurricane or other tropical system, which are called "operational forecasts.'' ...

Many [operational forecasters] worry ... that substantial errors in those full-season predictions can undermine faith in their generally accurate forecasts of actual storms.

They note that NOAA, parent agency of the hurricane center and Bell's team, often releases Bell's predictions during pre-season news conferences conducted at the hurricane center.

During other years, the hurricane center's director is ordered to participate in the pre-season news conference, wherever it might be held.

''NOAA has been using the good name of the National Hurricane Center, at least to some extent, to help promote the seasonal product and that's not the mission of operational hurricane forecasters,'' Mayfield said.

''In some areas, hurricane forecasters are losing credibility even though they are not the lead on this -- and that's always a concern,'' he said. "We don't want the credit for the seasonal forecasts.''

Bell said the differences between the two groups should be clear to the public by now. He said South Floridians and other residents of the hurricane zone should never disregard real-time forecasts, especially based on a misconception about the full-season predictions.

''There's no basis for those kinds of comments,'' Bell said, "especially if they're made by people who don't know what they're talking about.''

There might be "no basis" for comments linking operational forecasts and seasonal forecasts -- no valid basis, anyway -- but NOAA is setting itself for the inevitability that such comments will be made, with or without a "basis," when it releases its seasonal forecast with such a media splash and involves the NHC in that splash. So forgive me if I have little sympathy for the hue and cry that people "who don't know what they're talking about" are to blame for this. Ignorant people will always mouth off about things they don't understand, all the moreso when it suits a political agenda. NOAA is squarely to blame for giving them an easy opportunity to do so.

Philip Klotzbach, who issues the Colorado State forecast along with William Gray, "said long-range predictions satisfy the public's 'inherent curiosity'," according to the Herald. Well, he's a scientist, so he can do stuff simply for curiosity's sake if he wants to. But NOAA officials aren't just scientists, they're also policymakers, and they need to base their actions on sound policy judgments -- not just a desire to satisfy idle curiosity. It seems to me that these seasonal forecasts are indeed doing more harm than good, and NOAA should either stop issuing its own forecast or at least vastly scale back the media profile that it chooses to give that forecast. Don't call a press conference, don't do interviews, just quietly release the thing on the Internet (loaded with caveats) and satisfy the weather nerds' "curiosity" that way, without unintentionally (but foreseeably!) misinforming the public at large. And certainly, if you must make a media splash, don't involve the NHC operational forecasters in it, for heaven's sake.

It would also be a good idea to issue a press release, whenever anybody releases a seasonal forecast, reminding the media how generally pointless and useless these things are, that they're really just a curiosity, and that we ought to focus on what matters: preparing for big landfalling storms (which can happen in active and "inactive" seasons alike) and forecasting them accurately when they actually form.

Anyway, read the whole thing. And if anyone is tempted to turn this thread into a global-warming debate, please at least read my PJM piece first, if you haven't already. I address a lot of the obvious arguments there (like the old stand-by, "OMG If They Can't Even Forecast A Hurricane Season, Then How Can They Forecast The Climate In 100 Years?? Al Gore Suxxx!!") and I'd rather not repeat myself.

P.S. I will, however, repeat what meteorology Ph.D. student Charles Fenwick wrote back in August, because he made the point very well:

I don’t take too much interest in [seasonal forecasts] personally and don’t like how they are being pushed to the general public. They are a experimental works in progress and should be treated as such. I am most displeased with NOAA’s trumpeting of their forecasts. It gives the public the sense that these are operational forecasts that are on par with the other forecasts of the National Weather Service and that is definitely not the case. [One blog commenter, responding to a dire track forecast for an individual storm, asked], “Where are all the hurricanes the NHC had forecast for the last 2 years? just curious as to why we should panic over predictions that have little or no accuracy?” This shows the confusion that the hurricane season forecasts cause because the National Hurricane Center is not the agency that puts out the seasonal forecast and, as I just said, the seasonal forecasts do not have the same accuracy as the operational forecasts put out by the NHC. … [The seasonal] forecasts are most useful for people who have a stake in the macro-scale, namely insurance companies. They are of little value to individuals.

Indeed.

UPDATE: Welcome, InstaPundit readers!

Gig 'em, I guess.

By Jay Johnson

After the monumental failure with the hire of Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M backs up excellent decision making with the hiring of a failed NFL head coach that couldn't get a Brett Favre led team to the Super Bowl in the then-pathetic NFC.

Mike Sherman?  Really?

Way to go Aggies! (False exuberance here.  I see nothing in this hire for anyone at TAMU to be excited about.  This is as lackluster of a hire as could be imagined.)

BYU to the BCS?

By Brendan Loy

BCS analyst extraordinare Jerry Palm confirms what I said yesterday: don't sleep on BYU. (Don't sleep with them, either, unless you're married to them. They're very moral!) The Mormons Cougars could end up in the BCS, if they beat San Diego State on Saturday and everything falls their way:

"It looks like BYU has a chance if the following teams lose: USC, Hawaii, Arizona State and two of [the following] - Tennessee, Oregon and Boston College," said Palm, who operates collegebcs.com. "Even then, it's not guaranteed. Better still if all six lose, and BC losing is the least helpful."

If a two-loss team from a mid-major conference qualifies for the BCS, that would be, well, a perfect ending to this craziest of college-football seasons.

Er, well, "perfect" except in the sense that it would involve USC losing to UCLA. Which is to say, not perfect at all. So nevermind.

In women's soccer, a very Brendan Loy bracket

By Brendan Loy

The women's soccer NCAA Tournament has reached the Elite Eight, and an astounding number of schools that I care about are still competing for the championship. Both of my alma maters, USC and Notre Dame, are still alive, as is my original home-state team, UConn. And my two least-favorite universities, UCLA and Duke, are still alive as well. The only thing that could have made the bracket any more Loy-o-riffic would be if my current hometown team, Tennessee, had beaten Portland in the Sweet Sixteen to set up a date with the hated Bruins.

As things stand, it's Portland that must visit UCLA, while USC travels to West Virginia, Notre Dame hosts Duke, and UConn visits Florida State, all on Friday evening. Potentially, we could have a USC-UCLA semifinal on one side of the bracket and a UConn-Notre Dame semifinal on the other. Will the Women of Troy need to beat both of their school's archrivals to win the championship? Heh!

For what it's worth, in the final regular-season coaches' poll, UCLA was #1, Portland #3, USC #9, Notre Dame #11, West Virginia #12, Florida State #14, UConn #24, and Duke unranked. So I guess that means both the Irish and the Trojans will be favored on Friday. Go ND and 'SC, beat Duke and WVU!

USC upsets SIU; three big tests loom

By Brendan Loy

Southern Illinois went to the Sweet 16 last year, and having seen them in person, I can confirm that their success in March was no fluke; they were a very good basketball team. So I'm disinclined to take issue with their preseason ranking of #24, nor with their climb to #19 heading into last night's game against USC. However, perhaps the loss of Jamaal Tatum and Tony Young had more of an impact than the pollsters thought, and as a result, this year's SIU squad is a bit overrated. Either that, or I was wrong to doubt whether USC could live up to the hype, because the Trojans absolutely wiped the floor with the Salukis last night, 70-45, to win the inaugural Anaheim Classic:

USC has won five straight since inexplicably dropping its opener, 96-81 to Mercer. But the real test of the Trojans' resurgence will come with a brutal six-day, three-game stretch at the end of this week and the beginning of next. They host Oklahoma (5-1) on Thursday and #4 Kansas (5-0) on Sunday, then travel to #3 Memphis (5-0) next Tuesday. (Damn, I wish I was going to be in L.A. this weekend. USC-UCLA at the Coliseum on Saturday, then USC-Kansas at the Galen Center on Sunday? That'd be sweet!)

After that, the Trojans will get a bit of a breather, finishing December with a trio of cupcakes (Delaware State, Cal Poly and UC Riverside) before diving headlong into the crucible of the Pac-10 schedule.

But hey, one game at a time, right, Coach Floyd? Fight on! Beat the Sooners!

Hillary & Huma?

By Brendan Loy

The Hillary-Clinton-lesbian-affair-with-Huma-Abedin story, which has been spreading via blogospheric whispers for months, has finally broken on Drudge after making it into print, sort of, in the Times of London.

This comes after the L.A. Times supposedly decided to sit on the story, though some deny that. Regardless, somebody alert Mickey Kaus and Luke Ford: the "Dark Unseen Scandal Star" is coming into view at last!

One thing's for sure: if it's true, then judging purely on physical appearance, Hillary has way better taste in women than Bill. More on the lovely Ms. Abedin here.

P.S. One other thing that's for sure: even if these rumors are true, Bill can't say that Hillary is cheating on him, because according to his definition of sex, it's physically impossible for her to have sex with a woman!

UPDATE: Is the person stoking these rumors about Hillary Clinton... Hillary Clinton?

More on the Hil-&-Huma allegations here.

Nebraska to interview UB's Turner Gill

By Brendan Loy

Is this the beginning of the end for Turner Gill at Buffalo? UB's athletic director has given Nebraska permission to talk to Gill about its head-coaching vacancy. "I'm happy for Turner and his family about getting the opportunity to talk to Nebraska," AD Warde Manuel said. "He's worked extremely hard and deserves this opportunity."

According to the Lincoln Journal-Star, Manuel said the interview will take place "in the next day or so." He added, "I think it's tremendous. Turner is absolutely ready to coach at Nebraska. He's done a great job, an awesome turnaround. Although I would hate to lose him, he would be a great coach there." Earlier, Manuel was quoted as saying, "I don't want him to leave our program. Obviously, I don't. But without a doubt, Turner Gill, if he can do what he’s done here in two years, there's nobody there in Nebraska that could tell me that he's not deserving of a serious, serious look at being the head coach of Nebraska."

It certainly doesn't sound like UB is jumping through hoops to try to keep him around. (Not like they could anyway, really. It's not like they can even pretend to try and match Nebraska dollar for dollar.) And in light of Gill mentor Tom Osborne's comments about the new Huskers coach needing to understand Nebraska's tradition, this is starting to sound like a slam dunk.

If Gill's tenure at Buffalo is over, he certainly went out in style. Buffalo won in overtime at Kent State on Saturday to finish 5-7 -- easily the best season in Buffalo's nine-year Division I-A history. More here and here.

Must. Beat. UCLA.

By Brendan Loy

With one game to go, the UCLA Bruins could still go to the Rose Bowl -- or no bowl at all. It's up to the USC Trojans to make sure it's the latter. Stewart Mandel explains:

Of all the strange postseason scenarios still floating around, I don't think you possibly find one any more bizarre than the fact that the Bruins, who just reached bowl eligibility this weekend, are still technically alive for the Rose Bowl.

Here's the deal: USC (9-2, 6-2 Pac-10) and Arizona State (9-2, 6-2) are currently tied for first in the Pac-10 standings, with the Trojans holding the tiebreaker following last Thursday's win. Oregon (8-3, 5-3) and UCLA (6-5, 5-3) sit a game behind following the Bruins' 16-0 win over the quarterback-depleted Ducks. If surging Arizona (5-6) upends the Sun Devils (not implausible) and Karl Dorrell's Bruins pull another crosstown upset of the Trojans (highly unlikely), it would create either a three-way tie for first between USC, ASU and UCLA, all of which went 1-1 against each other, or a four-way tie with Oregon. In either case, the Bruins win the tiebreaker due to their victory over the Ducks. (If you dare to figure out how that is, read this).

The craziest part of all is, just as easily as the 6-5 Bruins could go to the Rose Bowl, they could also go to no bowl at all if they lose. If Arizona does beat ASU, it would give the Pac-10 seven bowl-eligible teams for six spots and almost assuredly restrict them to one BCS berth. Guess which would be the odd team out in that scenario? Yep -- the same team that's playing for a Rose Bowl berth next week.

USC needs to beat UCLA not just on general principle, not just for pride, not just for revenge, not just for the Roses, not just so I can win another bet against Mike Tran, but for the good of the whole conference. If the Bruins, who lost to Notre Dame and Utah, and who have done nothing in conference play to merit any sort of respect (no, shutting out an Oregon team playing its 26th-string quarterback doesn't count), go to the Rose Bowl, the Pac-10 will be the laughingstock of the country.

So Trojans, for the love of God, beat the Bruins.

P.S. A minor correction to Mandel's analysis after the jump.

Hawaii ranked #12 in BCS

By Brendan Loy

With one week to go in the college-football regular season, Hawaii is finally right where they want to be: #12 in the BCS standings. So, beat Washington and they're BCS-bound, right?

Well, probably. The fly in the ointment is #14 Tennessee. If the Vols beat LSU, they would almost certainly leapfrog Hawaii. It's also possible that #13 Arizona State could jump Hawaii with a win over Arizona, especially if the Warriors win less-than-impressively over the 4-8 Huskies. The Warriors and Sun Devils are really close in the standings at this point.

If Tennessee and/or ASU leapfrogs Hawaii, the Warriors will need somebody (or somebodies) currently ahead of them to fall behind them. #7 LSU might fit the bill, though I'm not sure how far they'd tumble with a loss to UT. Probably just far enough, is my guess. Also, somebody's gotta lose the ACC title game between #6 Virginia Tech and #11 Boston College; BC would certainly fall behind Hawaii with a loss, while VT might or might not. Other possibilities would be Missouri beating #9 Oklahoma and (heaven forbid) UCLA beating #8 USC. The latter scenario could help Hawaii in two ways: by allowing them to jump USC, and by potentially putting them ahead of the Pac-10 champion. If UCLA beats USC and ASU beats Arizona, the Sun Devils would be the conference champions, and it'd be a close call between them and Hawaii. If UCLA and Arizona both win, the Bruins would be the champ (at 7-5 overall...ugh), and would certainly be ranked below Hawaii in the BCS.

Bottom line, if Hawaii beats Washington, the Warriors are probably 90% likely to reach the Sugar Bowl, where they'll play either LSU (if the Tigers beat Tennessee but don't sneak into the title game), Tennessee (if the Vols beat LSU), or Georgia (if LSU beats UT and makes it into the title game). With UConn out of the picture, the Warriors have essentially 0% of going to any other BCS bowl, as all of the other at-large teams will be more attractive to the bowls, and the Sugar Bowl picks last.

P.S. Don't sleep on #19 BYU. If Washington beats Hawaii, UCLA beats USC, Arizona beats ASU, Oregon State beats Oregon, and LSU beats Tennessee, the Cougars would probably be ranked #15 or #16, and ahead of Pac-10 champion UCLA. So the Sugar Bowl would be LSU (or Georgia) against BYU!

Eight teams still alive for BCS title

By Brendan Loy

Missouri is #1 in the new AP poll by a margin of 45 first-place votes to 20, but West Virginia is #1 in the new coaches poll by a margin of 37 to 17 (with 6 first-place votes for Ohio State).

Of course, it doesn't matter who's #1 and who's #2. If the Tigers and Mountaineers both win on Saturday, they'll go to the BCS title game, and they'll decide on the field who deserves to be #1. More significant is who comes after #3 Ohio State in the coaches' poll, since those teams would fighting over the #2 spot in the BCS if Missouri and WVU were to both lose on Saturday.

It goes like this: #4 Georgia (1,232 points), #5 (tied) Kansas (1,161 points), #5 (tied) Virginia Tech (1,161 points), #7 LSU (1,134 points), #8 Oklahoma (1,126 points), #9 USC (1,073 points) and #10 Hawaii (958 points). I have to say, I'm surprised Kansas is still ranked that high; I didn't think the Jayhawks would be in the mix anymore, but they are. Texasyank was right: they could pull a Nebraska, a la 2001. (Though I still doubt it would actually happen.)

Anyway, it would be a hell of an argument among the teams currently ranked #4 through #8 if Mizzou and WVU lose:

• Georgia could claim it's playing the best football right now, but others would point out that they didn't even win their division, a la Nebraska in 2001. And if LSU beats Tennessee, how do you keep out the two-loss conference champion in favor of a two-loss divisional runner-up (that, oh by the way, lost 35-14 to the Vols)? The only reason to favor the Bulldogs over the Tigers is because they lost earlier than LSU did. But is that really a good reason? Also, Georgia has one of the worst losses of the group (at home to a .500 team, South Carolina... if anyone remembers September 8 at this point).

• Kansas could point out that everyone else has two losses, while they only have one. But they, too, have the "didn't win their division" problem, plus they started 11-0 against a very weak schedule and then lost against the first real quality opponent they played. The Jayhawks are in prime position to be leapfrogged.

• Outside of the Top 3, Virginia Tech is the highest-ranked team right now that could potentially win its conference. But can the voters possibly keep the Hokies ahead of LSU, if the Tigers win the SEC, when VT lost 48-7 to LSU back in September? I think VT must hope for Tennessee to beat LSU to have any shot.

• LSU has the 48-7 trump card over Virginia Tech, and the SEC trump card ("champion of the toughest conference in America") over everyone else if they beat Tennessee. But they also suffered a late, high-profile loss, which pollsters hate. If LSU wins, will the voters follow the Kreutz Theorem and leapfrog them ahead of all the non-SEC two-loss teams (and Kansas), or will they continue to punish the Tigers for losing late? LSU needs to root for Virginia Tech to win the ACC, because having that 48-7 win at the forefront of everyone's minds is obviously good for their cause. Other LSU talking points: they played the toughest schedule of the group, and both of their losses were in triple-overtime. Rebuttal: yeah, but a lot of their wins were really close, too. Surrebuttal: well of course they were, because they played the toughest schedule of the group! And the SEC is a war!

• Oklahoma is currently ranked last among the teams seriously competing to take advantage if the Top 2 falter, but they have two advantages: they can make one of those top two falter, by beating Missouri; and in so doing, they can score the highest-profile "quality win" of everyone in the group. On the flip side, like Georgia, they lost to a 6-6 team (Colorado).

I don't think anyone else would really be considered. USC just doesn't have enough of a case to pass Oklahoma or Georgia, even if everybody else loses. Hawaii, right or wrong, is not going to be seriously considered for the #2 spot by the pollsters or the computers, under any circumstances. West Virginia and Missouri won't be able to sneak in the back door after a loss; there are too many other available two-loss contenders. And Boston College, at #12, has too high of a hill to climb, even if the Eagles beat VT.

Personally, I think LSU would be the most deserving if WVU and Mizzou lose and all the two-loss teams win, but that opinion is subject to change depending on how the teams in question look on Saturday.

P.S. Man, wouldn't an eight-team playoff be a great way to settle all this? Just saying!

UPDATE: Rich Tellshow thinks USC will finish ahead of Kansas and Oklahoma if they beat UCLA, and that it could come down to the Trojans vs. the Bulldogs for the #2 spot if Missouri, West Virginia, LSU and Virginia Tech all lose:

If [Mizzou and WVU lose] then LSU could be back with win over UT, with an LSU loss VT would have a claim if they win the ACC, and UGA or USC possibly if LSU and VT lose. I think Kansas is done and OU's computer component will keep them out.

UPDATE 2: Jerry Palm thinks USC has no chance. I tend to agree.

Former CT governor O'Neill dies

By Brendan Loy

Former Connecticut governor William O'Neill, who ran the state for 10 years and 10 days -- including the first nine-plus years of my life -- has died at 77.

"Bill O'Neill was one of the titans of Connecticut politics," said current governor Jodi Rell. "No description of him would be complete without the words 'decency' and 'fairness,' and he understood that government must take its lead from the people it serves." Former state Dem chairman John Droney called O'Neill "the Harry Truman of Connecticut."

More college basketball upsets

By Brendan Loy

Xavier 80, #8 Indiana 65.

#16 Texas 97, #7 Tennessee 78.

And, in progress now, a potential huge upset: BYU 59, #1 North Carolina 58 with 7:54 left. It's on ESPN2. Go Mormons Cougars! BYU won the Holy War in football earlier today, so this would be quite a double-whammy, if they can pull it off.

Meanwhile, in non-upsets, Gonzaga beat Virginia Tech and North Dame beat Youngstown State.

UPDATE: UNC survived the score from BYU.

Missouri dominating Kansas

By Brendan Loy

So far, it's all Chase Daniel & co., and Kirk Herbstreit has already described Kansas as being "exposed." Maybe those cupcakes didn't serve their purpose? Anyway, they're just starting the second half, and it's 14-0 Mizzou.

Earlier, West Virginia gave UConn a good old-fashioned whoopin', 66-21. D'oh! So now WVU is a win over Pitt away from the BCS title game. Now, Pitt isn't very good, but do you think they'll be a little motivated to play their "Backyard Brawl" rivals with a chance to derail their title hopes? Remember what happened to USC against UCLA last year, Mountaineers, and be careful: that could be you. (In which case, hello, Ohio State!)

Also, fUCLA shut out Oregon, which means that if they now turn around and lose to USC next week, the Trojans will be Rose Bowl-bound. Thanks, Bruins!! ... Oregon's loss is also good news for Hawaii, as the Ducks will presumably join Texas in dropping behind the Warriors in the BCS standings. (And frankly, if Kansas keeps looking this bad, they might take enough of a plunge in the polls to fall behind Hawaii as well, especially given the weakness of Kansas's prior schedule, which is almost Hawaii-esque.)

Speaking of USC, wins by Georgia and Oklahoma mean the Trojans' slim national-title hopes are probably dashed. I don't think a two-loss USC would finish ahead of the two-loss Bulldogs or Sooners.

P.S. With regard to Hawaii, assuming Kansas stays ahead of them, I think the two major questions are: 1) will Arizona State stay ahead of them? And 2) will Tennessee leapfrog them? If the answer is "no" to both, I see the Warriors at #12 next week, going into their finale against Washington (unless Hawaii can leapfrog someone based on their performance against Boise State).

Meanwhile, the best hopes for a conference champion to finish ahead of, if the Warriors need it (i.e., if they're between #13 and #16), now come from the Pac-10 (if USC loses to UCLA, triggering bizarre tiebreakers extraordinaire) and, of all places, the SEC (if Tennessee beats LSU and doesn't leapfrog Hawaii). The Big 12 and ACC are now guaranteed to have their champions finish in the Top 14, along with the Big Ten and almost certainly the Big East (even if they lose to Pitt, I don't think West Virginia would fall that far).

UPDATE: Kansas rallied valiantly from a 28-7 third-quarter deficit, but Missouri won 36-28. So it's now Missouri and West Virginia in the driver's seat for the national-championship game, with Ohio State waiting in the wings if either of them falter next week, and mass chaos if both falter. (Ohio State vs. ... Georgia? LSU? Oklahoma? USC? Boston College? Virginia Tech? Kansas?? Hawaii???)

Morality research

By Mike Wiser

Time has a very interesting poll about morality at the moment.  Please go look at it first; it will take you less than 5 minutes to answer it.

(waiting for you to go answer the poll questions)

(no, really, go do so)

(Please?)

I'd heard about this poll before, but this time I get to see the exact scenarios laid out.  My answers, for those who are interested, are: yes, yes, yes, no, no.

In the first scenario, the baby's crying will lead to not only my death, but also to the deaths of others, including itself.  Obviously, you try other means to quiet the baby first: give it something to suck on, rock it, change its diaper, whatever.  But the scenario states that the baby can't be quieted in any other way.  If that baby continues to scream, it's going to die very soon no matter what.  Better that it be just the baby that dies, and not take me and the other refugees with it.  I'm smothering the baby.

In the second scenario, if someone isn't kicked off the lifeboat we're going to capsize and all die.  If one individual is already grievously injured and bound to die soon anyways, and killing him just a little bit sooner preserves my life and those of others, I'm pushing him out of the boat.  I've got a strong survival instinct.

In the third scenario, we have a group of 5 idiots on one train track not paying attention to oncoming vehicles, and 1 individual on another doing the same.  They're all equally stupid, and none of them are guaranteed to die soon if I don't send the train at them.  I therefore bow to the notion that 1 death is better than 5 deaths, and send the train at the lone individual.

In the fourth scenario, we have the same 5 idiots unaware of an oncoming train, but I'm on a bridge over the track with a stranger, and if I push him off the train will stop before it hits the 5 clueless.  In this case, the idiots on the track are more culpable than the guy on the bridge with me, who is entirely blameless.  I'm not going to make him pay the consequences of the idiots being idiots.  I'll yell for them to get out of the way and maybe throw rocks at them if I think I have a chance of getting their attention, but I'm not going to kill an innocent bystander to save them.

In the 5th case, the guy in the catapult is just as innocent as the guy on the bridge.  So, I won't kill him to save 5 idiots.  I'm assuming he's not been sentenced to sit in the catapult as payment for a crime, nor is he being an idiot and playing in a catapult which has obviously been constructed to fling people at oncoming trains.

Of the people who had responded when I wrote this, 70% agreed with me in the first case, 56% in the second, 79% in the 3rd, 60% in the 4th, and 52% in the 5th.  I'm surprised more people are OK with killing the baby than the presumably adult lifeboat passenger, but maybe they care that the baby probably won't really understand its coming death while the lifeboat passenger will.

What are your answers?

Terrail Lambert decapitates Tavita Pritchard

By Brendan Loy

Horrible. Another illegal helmet-to-helmet hit against a quarterback goes uncalled. What the f*** is wrong with these referees? And with college-football referees generally? Good grief.

P.S. Um, but anyway, Go Irish, Beat Farm. It's 14-14, late in the third. Speaking of refs, apparently there was an awful call that robbed ND of a touchdown earlier, though I missed it.

UPDATE: Irish win!

So it's 3-9. Remember "9-3 is not good enough"? ... Still, it could have been worse. Like 2-10.

Ah, well. Next year.

UPDATE 2: Reading this over, I realized it sorta sounds like I'm saying, sarcastically, "Ah, well. Maybe the Irish will got 2-10 next year." That wasn't my intention. I meant "Next year hopefully they'll be better."

Tennessee, Kentucky in triple quadruple OT

By Brendan Loy

It looked like the Wildcats were going to win for sure in the second OT after they intercepted Eric Ainge and just needed a FG to win, but then Tennessee blocked the kick... and looked for a moment like they might run it back for a touchdown, until Kentucky stopped the run by committing what looked like a facemask against the ball-carrier, which was not a penalty "by rule" because Tennessee was on defense in overtime (so I guess a Kentucky player could have pulled out a gun and shot the UT player with the ball, and it would be okay).

Anyway... the SEC really is kind of a war, isn't it?

UPDATE: Tennessee wins! 52-50 in 4OT, and the Vols are SEC East champs! They'll play LSU in the conference championship game in Atlanta.

Go Irish, Beat the Farm!

By Brendan Loy

Notre Dame has a 7-0 lead over Stanford early. BEAT THE DRUNKEN TREES!!!

Meanwhile, in Morgantown, UConn took an early 7-0 lead over West Virginia, but the Mountaineers have rallied and are up 14-7 with 4:14 left in the first quarter. WVU's second touchdown came after a devastating UConn fumble on a punt return deep in their own territory. The Huskies' success this season has been based largely on an excellent turnover margin, and now is definitely not the time to stop taking care of the football, with a BCS berth on the line.

Incidentally, the biggest UConn fans in the country right now are in Columbus, Ohio, as a West Virginia loss would send Ohio State to the national championship game (unless a two-loss SEC champion could leapfrog one-loss Ohio State). In addition, a UConn victory would mean that Hawaii, if they get BCS-eligible, would probably go to the Fiesta Bowl rather than the Sugar Bowl. (The Sugar Bowl picks last, the Fiesta Bowl second-to-last, and I imagine the folks in Glendale would prefer Hawaii to UConn if those were their only two options.)

P.S. Tennessee is beating Kentucky, 31-14. Win, and the Vols clinch the SEC East -- and eliminate Georgia from the SEC race, and hurt the slim national-title hopes of both LSU and Georgia, but virtually guarantee Georgia a BCS at-large berth (if the Bulldogs beat Georgia Tech).

Also, Oklahoma is up 14-7 over Oklahoma State at the end of the first. A Sooner victory would largely eliminate the various truly wild BCS title-game scenarios, since the Big 12 would be guaranteed to produce a highly ranked champion. A hypothetical two-loss, Big 12 champion Oklahoma would represent the "floor" for BCS scenarios; anyone who can't finish the season ranked ahead of them would be eliminated. (Whether that would totally eliminate USC, I'm not entirely sure. The computers don't much like Oklahoma.)

Coaching carousel speeds up

By Brendan Loy

Nebraska coach Bill Callahan has been fired, and Ole Miss coach Ed Orgeron, a former USC assistant, reportedly will be fired momentarily. All this after Texas A&M's Dennis Franchione resigned yesterday.

Gonzaga loses; USC wins, Salukis next

By Brendan Loy

Gonzaga lost to Texas Tech in the Great Alaska Shootout semifinals Friday night, derailing a potential rematch of last year's Preseason NIT final against Butler. Instead, it will be Bobby Knight's Red Raiders who take on Butler tonight (i.e., Saturday), while the Zags will play Virginia Tech in the consolation game.

Meanwhile, USC edged Miami of Ohio in the Anaheim Classic semis to set up an intriguing championship game against #19-ranked Southern Illinois. That'll be a real test for the Trojans, Sunday at 9:00 PM Eastern on ESPN2.

Oh, and in the Legends Classic semifinals, Tennessee nipped West Virginia to set up the men's version of the game Becky and I saw last week on the women's side: UT vs. UT, Burnt Orange vs. Tennessee Orange. That's right, it's #7 Tennessee against #15 Texas, at 4:00 PM today on Versus.

Warriors, Broncos battle for WAC & BCS

By Brendan Loy

Hawaii and Boise State are underway in their much-hyped battle for the WAC title and a possible BCS berth. It's 13-7 Hawaii early in the second quarter. (Boise blocked the PAT after the Warriors' second touchdown.)

UPDATE: Very entertaining game so far. Boise State has scored 10 unanswered points, and leads 27-26 with 6:52 left in the third quarter.

UPDATE 2: Now it's 39-27 Hawaii heading into the fourth quarter.

Unlike the Broncos, the undefeated Warriors, if they win tonight and beat Washington next weekend, have a real shot at finishing in the Top 12 and qualifying automatically for a BCS bowl -- now likely the Sugar Bowl against LSU! -- without the need to finish ahead of a big-conference champ or squeeze in because of a glut of SEC and Big 12 teams in the Top 14. And to that end, Texas's loss to Texas A&M earlier today is very helpful.

UPDATE 3: Hawaii 39, Boise State 27, final. The Warriors are WAC champions, and they're 11-0 with Washington coming to town next week.

Bearden wins!

By Brendan Loy

28-14. Clinched it on a pick 6 with about two minutes left. Crowd rushed the field as Bulldogs beat rival Farragut for the first time in nine tries and advance to the semifinals.