Noel?

The latest post from Dr. Jeff Masters has an alarming title -- "Bahamas tropical disturbance a threat to the Gulf of Mexico" -- but it sounds like he suspects Proto-Noel won't amount to much:

Any storm that forms is forecast to move west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. However, intensification will be slowed by the presence of all the dry air dragged into the Gulf of Mexico by the upper low, and by the transition of the storm from subtropical to tropical. The models project a landfall in Texas or Louisiana on Friday or Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

On the other hand, we've been reminded by Humberto and Lorenzo -- in case we'd forgotten from 2005 -- that tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico will sometimes take full advantage of even the tiniest window of opportunity to intensify. And Friday/Saturday is a long way off. So Proto-Noel (which is just a mass of thunderstorms with a weak surface rotation at this point, not even a Tropical or Subtropical Depression yet) certainly bears watching. Jeff Gammons has more on it.

Meanwhile, Brian Neudorff is blogging about La Niña. The arrival of La Niña (which, as I'm sure Chris Farley would agree, is Spanish for "the Niña") could herald a busy hurricane season next year. I know, I know, you've heard that one before -- but even storm-count skeptic Alan Sullivan writes: "If La Nina persists through 2008, next year could be a bad one for hurricanes."

Then again, this year may retroactively turn out to have had one more hurricane than we currently think. Max Mayfield says Tropical Storm Karen may be reclassified as a hurricane when the NHC takes a fresh look at the data after the season. Speaking of Karen, Bob King celebrates her demise, but tries not to get too cocky about it:

Two years ago, I was way too quick to gloat over the demise of Tropical Depression 10. But some of 10’s remnants later became Tropical Depression 12, which then grew into Hurricane Katrina, and we all know how that turned out. Hence my ironclad rule: Don’t taunt the hurricanes!

So I’ll just settle for this: Oh ghost of Karen, would you terribly mind not coming back? Pretty please?