The race for "Humberto" is on!

At 11:00 AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center designated not one but two tropical depressions: T.D. Eight in the Central Atlantic, 1,130 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and T.D. Nine in the Gulf of Mexico, 85 miles SSW of Galveston. (Given the simultaneous designations, I don't know how they decided which would be #8 and which would be #9.)

Now the race is on: which T.D. will become Tropical Storm Humberto, and which will become Tropical Storm Ingrid? (Assuming, of course, that T.D. 9 actually reaches T.S. status before landfall, which is not a given. But the forecast says it will: Tropical Storm Warnings are up along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.) This question is of special significance to me, since my "Español name" in Mrs. Betters's freshman-year Spanish class at Newington High School -- picked during the then-record-setting 1995 hurricane season, two full hurricane name cycles ago -- was "Humberto." (There's no Spanish-language equivalent for "Brendan," so I picked the name of the hurricane, which was active on the first day of school.)

Personally, I'm rooting for Eight to become Humberto and Nine to become Ingrid. "Hurricane Humberto" has a certain ring to it, like "Hurricane Hugo" -- and the Gulf system will never become a hurricane and will make landfall within 24 hours, whereas we'll be most likely hearing about the Central Atlantic system for a good week or two.

So, where are these storms going? T.D. Nine "will drift ashore before it can turn into anything worse than a weak tropical storm," but after landfall its track (or the track of its remnants) is uncertain, and it could create a "serious flooding event" for Texas.

As for T.D. Eight, it's "far too early to say whether the storm will affect the United States" -- but Alan Sullivan, who is in vacation while a friend watches his boat in south Florida, is worried:

It seems less likely that the atmosphere will sustain continuous westward movement through the whole length of the Caribbean, as it did for Dean and Felix. The present slow motion is indicative of a trickier forecast. The season is getting more advanced. Frost in Fargo, ten days early! The storm, whatever name it gets, will take a more northerly track. Will it run Yucatan Channel into the Gulf? Will it cross the Greater Antilles to threaten South Florida, Carolinas, even New England? An island crossing means a weaker storm, at least for awhile. Or will it wobble WNW enough to stay in the Atlantic and approach Florida via the Bahamas? This is the course I fear most. Models mostly do aim this storm NE of Puerto Rico. Historically, Florida’s worst hurricanes have come westward from the open Atlantic. (Wilma was a freakish exception.) I shall breathe easier if this system gets into the Caribbean.

The other big question is how much Eight (proto-Humberto? domo arigato...) will strengthen, and how fast. Cue Eric Berger again:

This system should continue passing across warm seas and is under low wind shear right now, so there's no reason to believe it won't develop further.

How much? The models aren't as aggressive strengthening this system as they have been with other storms this year, such as Dean and Felix. Why? Because this wave -- probably a tropical storm by week's end -- is forecast to move under 25 mph or greater wind shear by Friday or Saturday, which will give it a very hard time.

Still, Dr. Jeff Masters says T.D. Eight "has the potential to become a large and dangerous major hurricane next week."

UPDATE: D'oh! Tropical Depression Nine -- the one near Texas -- just became Tropical Storm Humberto, as of 2:00 PM EDT. Harumph! A great name wasted on an unexciting storm! So, it'll be (eventually) Hurricane Ingrid churning up the Atlantic and giving Alan Sullivan heartburn in the coming days. Doesn't sound nearly as fearsome as "Hurricane Humberto" would have, but I suppose we'll get used to it.

Comments

[Becky]

What? No PJM post?

[David Ross]

I have to say that, as a Houstonian, I am not looking forward to Alison II.

Crap.

[I R A Darth Aggie]

Allison's claim to fame was that she stayed pretty much stationary centered pretty much over the greater Houston metropolitan area for an unexpected period of time, not really doing anything other than producing rain and wind the whole time, providing a flat, flat Houston with copious amounts of rain. As I recall, the one day record at Alvin was set during Allison, to the tune of 45 inches (or so).

So, yes, if Humberto decides to play that game, yer screwed. But I wouldn't bet money on it.

Email ND students just got:

ATTENTION MUGGLES!!

The Notre Dame Center for Ethics and Culture would like to invite you to a panel discussion of the final HARRY POTTER book tonight,

Wednesday September 12, at 7:30 PM

DeBartolo 102.

The panel will consist of three presentations:

“Harry Potter and the Cross of Christ”

Professor John O’Callaghan, University of Notre Dame

“Love Bears All Things: Thomas Aquinas, Harry Potter and the Virtue of Courage”

Rebecca DeYoung, Calvin College

Reflections on the Series by

Emerson Spartz, Founder of Mugglenet.com

After the three presentations, the panelists will field questions from the audience.

[B. Minich]

Humberto is an AWESOME name. The nice thing is, it'll return in future seasons as long as this storm is utterly boring and does nothing worth retiring the name for. So now we need to root for Humberto being totally boring.

[Brian Neudorff]

When saying Humberto don't forget to roll the 'R' it sounds better that way

[David Ross]

Looks like it's projected to go east of me. Yay! I am worried for the poor sods in Channelview and Baytown though.

It's not a case of "get the hell out"; but the folks in points east of Houston might like some mentions of Allison, sandbags, making sure everything is tied down and/or raised a few inches off the floor...

[Sean]

Looking back, we could've found a Spanish equivalent. Brendan is the diminutive of Bran. Bran means Raven. So the diminutive of Cuervo: Corvito.

(I was of course Juan.)

[Grace]

Well, it looks like all the predictions were wrong! 9 did make it to TS first, and still managed to become a hurricane before landfall. (I hope you're excited; because we sure aren't. We're still suffering damage from Rita in 2005.)