Proto-Jerry: what is the deal?

Subtropical Depression Ten has formed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. It could become "Jerry" as it moves westward toward -- gulp -- New Orleans.  But it's very unlikely to become anything serious.  In Eric Berger's words, "this low-pressure system is running out of time to turn into anything more than a minimal tropical storm as it moves toward New Orleans. It seems unlikely to cause significant damage." However, Berger also opines:

The bottom line is that tropical systems are incredibly unpredictable. Any system in the Gulf is a threat to lots of people because we simply don't know, for sure, where the bad weather will go, nor how bad it will get. It's possible, although unlikely, that this depression could pull an Humberto and strike New Orleans as a Category 1 hurricane tomorrow. Probably not, but we just don't have the knowledge to forecast these things with certainty even a day in advance.

For his part, Alan Sullivan is distinctly unimpressed:

You ever heard of [a subtropical depression] before? In the past these systems were (with some hestitation) given names when and if they got as strong as tropical storms. This one is a joke. ... This is lame, lame, lame. What is happening at NHC? It has become an instrument of alarmism.

The official NHC discussion straightforwardly admits calling this storm a Subtropical Depression "probably strains the definition a bit," given the relative dearth of convection. But they're designating it anyway "because of the potential for additional development right along the coastline." In other words, for fear of Humberto Part Deux.

Anyway, "lame" or not, Tropical Storm Warnings are up from Apalachicola, Florida west to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. But there's no need to "get the hell out" this time, unless perhaps to "get the hell out...to a convenience store and buy yourself an umbrella." Though even that may not really be necessary, according to Dr. Jeff Masters: "with the storm expected to move inland by Saturday afternoon, it does not appear [S.T.D. 10] has time to generate the kind of tropical rains that would make it a serious flood threat."

Comments

[CFR]

I live in Pensacola, and there's not much to report at present (12:13 Central). There's some loose leaves and branches outside so I guess there were some legitimate wind gusts overnight, but it's calm and very, very cloudy right now.

No rain, only some light, intermittent drizzle although the radar seems to indicate that places nearby are getting rain.

[I R A Darth Aggie]

In Tallahasse, we've had rain on-and-off throughout the night, since about 2 am. It looks to be slacking off as the storm moves off to the west.

Historically speaking, remaindered mid-latitude cold-core lows are notoriously hard to convert to a warm-core tropical system. But once such a conversion occurs, they can be quite nasty. Fortunately for the central Gulf residents, it doesn't have enough time get its act together.

[Brian Neudorff]

hey Brendan, I just got done with a post where I ask if the 2007 Hurricane season is suffering the "Katrina Factor" that I mentioned last year with Alberto. It is very interesting there seems to be a lot of people who would argue that there has been almost 10 named storms this season.

[Margie K]

NHC is hardly alarmist. They are being, as usual, accurate, and appopriately prudent. I'm guessing Alan Sullivan doesn't live in a FEMA trailer in a low-lying coastal area of Mobile County AL or Jackson County MS. I don't know where he gets the idea that a tropical depression or tropical storm poses no risk. Whether or not it impresses him is hardly to the point. A storm on this path can easily generate coastal flooding along those counties, which will flood or temporarily cut off some areas, and gusty winds can be a danger to the trailers. Also this area has a lot of coastal industry, and seas will be 6-8 feet, and so there are a lot of associated marine warnings. If you want to see what "the deal" is, why not show up at Bayou La Batre AL or Ocean Springs, MS after midnight, and stay a little while. Actually "the deal" is about keeping people safe.

[Brendan Loy]

For what it's worth, Margie, the title of this post wasn't intended to endorse Alan's view; it was supposed to be a Seinfeld reference, inspired by the possibility of the storm being named "Jerry."