Irish Trojan in Tennessee

Humberto may just become a hurricane!

By Brendan Loy

It appears that Tropical Storm Humberto is bound and determined to erode my undeserved reputation as a clairvoyant hurricane prognosticator. :) Less than 12 hours ago, before Humberto had a name, I confidently wrote that "the Gulf system will never become a hurricane." Once it got the name "Humberto" (rather than "Ingrid," which it would have been named if Tropical Depression Eight in the Central Atlantic had become a tropical storm first), I lamented the fact that there would be no alliterative "Hurricane Humberto": it was, I said, "a great name wasted on an unexciting storm."

Well, think again, Katrina Boy! Humberto has put on an impressive burst of intensification, and its winds are now up to 65 mph as it approaches the Texas coast. Hurricane strength starts at 74 mph. Humberto's probably got one more NHC advisory over open water (2:00 AM), and will probably just be making landfall around the time of the 5:00 AM advisory. Will it get to be a hurricane for, er, three hours or so? Maybe:

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL EARLY ON THURSDAY...AND WINDS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR HUMBERTO'S CENTER WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

It doesn't really matter, though. Humberto's main threat will be flooding rains. Eric Berger looks at the sitaution in already-saturated Texas.

Meanwhile, proto-Ingrid (a.k.a. the aforementioned T.D. Eight) is not strengthening yet. But Alan Sullivan is continuing to worry.

Oil at $80 a barrel

By Brendan Loy

As Fark.com would say, EVERYBODY PANIC.

This just in: apparently Erwin Chemerinsky is a liberal

By Brendan Loy

Duke law professor Erwin Chemerinsky, formerly of USC, almost of U.C. Irvine, has been fired for being too liberal:

Just days after he signed a contract to become the first dean of UC Irvine's new law school, Erwin Chemerinsky was told this week that the deal was off because he was too "politically controversial."

Chemerinsky said in an interview today that UC Irvine Chancellor Michael V. Drake had flown to North Carolina on Tuesday and told him at a hotel near the airport that that he did not realize the extent to which there were "conservatives out to get me." ...

The professor said Drake told him that he thought there would have been a "bloody battle" among the regents over the appointment.

I'm with InstaPundit on this one, on all counts:

Hiring and firing Erwin Chemerinsky in one week? Because it turns out he's too liberal? First of all, who doesn't know about Erwin's politics? Certainly anybody who managed to hire him without knowing his political leanings would have to have been grossly negligent in their evaluation. Second, he's a nice, fair guy regardless of his politics -- which aren't that liberal by law school standards -- and which just shouldn't matter anyway. Perhaps there's more to this story than we're hearing, though I'm not sure what it could be, but it makes absolutely no sense as reported. Anyway, I have to agree with Brian Leiter that this is going to make it very hard for them to recruit anyone of comparable stature for the position now.

Glenn just posted an update.

Today in Russia...

By Brendan Loy

Vladimir Putin dissolved his government...

...the military announced the creation and testing of "The Dad Of All Bombs"...

...and a bunch of people had sex.

Somehow, I'm sure these events are all connected. And the connection probably involves vodka.

Civics class?

By dcl

It would seem that not being able to find their country on a map is only the tip of the iceberg for "US Americans..." No, really! If people are this daft on the first amendment, I'd imagine they wouldn't know the ninth if it smacked them in the face.

The race for "Humberto" is on!

By Brendan Loy

At 11:00 AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center designated not one but two tropical depressions: T.D. Eight in the Central Atlantic, 1,130 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and T.D. Nine in the Gulf of Mexico, 85 miles SSW of Galveston. (Given the simultaneous designations, I don't know how they decided which would be #8 and which would be #9.)

Now the race is on: which T.D. will become Tropical Storm Humberto, and which will become Tropical Storm Ingrid? (Assuming, of course, that T.D. 9 actually reaches T.S. status before landfall, which is not a given. But the forecast says it will: Tropical Storm Warnings are up along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.) This question is of special significance to me, since my "Español name" in Mrs. Betters's freshman-year Spanish class at Newington High School -- picked during the then-record-setting 1995 hurricane season, two full hurricane name cycles ago -- was "Humberto." (There's no Spanish-language equivalent for "Brendan," so I picked the name of the hurricane, which was active on the first day of school.)

Personally, I'm rooting for Eight to become Humberto and Nine to become Ingrid. "Hurricane Humberto" has a certain ring to it, like "Hurricane Hugo" -- and the Gulf system will never become a hurricane and will make landfall within 24 hours, whereas we'll be most likely hearing about the Central Atlantic system for a good week or two.

So, where are these storms going? T.D. Nine "will drift ashore before it can turn into anything worse than a weak tropical storm," but after landfall its track (or the track of its remnants) is uncertain, and it could create a "serious flooding event" for Texas.

As for T.D. Eight, it's "far too early to say whether the storm will affect the United States" -- but Alan Sullivan, who is in vacation while a friend watches his boat in south Florida, is worried:

It seems less likely that the atmosphere will sustain continuous westward movement through the whole length of the Caribbean, as it did for Dean and Felix. The present slow motion is indicative of a trickier forecast. The season is getting more advanced. Frost in Fargo, ten days early! The storm, whatever name it gets, will take a more northerly track. Will it run Yucatan Channel into the Gulf? Will it cross the Greater Antilles to threaten South Florida, Carolinas, even New England? An island crossing means a weaker storm, at least for awhile. Or will it wobble WNW enough to stay in the Atlantic and approach Florida via the Bahamas? This is the course I fear most. Models mostly do aim this storm NE of Puerto Rico. Historically, Florida’s worst hurricanes have come westward from the open Atlantic. (Wilma was a freakish exception.) I shall breathe easier if this system gets into the Caribbean.

The other big question is how much Eight (proto-Humberto? domo arigato...) will strengthen, and how fast. Cue Eric Berger again:

This system should continue passing across warm seas and is under low wind shear right now, so there's no reason to believe it won't develop further.

How much? The models aren't as aggressive strengthening this system as they have been with other storms this year, such as Dean and Felix. Why? Because this wave -- probably a tropical storm by week's end -- is forecast to move under 25 mph or greater wind shear by Friday or Saturday, which will give it a very hard time.

Still, Dr. Jeff Masters says T.D. Eight "has the potential to become a large and dangerous major hurricane next week."

UPDATE: D'oh! Tropical Depression Nine -- the one near Texas -- just became Tropical Storm Humberto, as of 2:00 PM EDT. Harumph! A great name wasted on an unexciting storm! So, it'll be (eventually) Hurricane Ingrid churning up the Atlantic and giving Alan Sullivan heartburn in the coming days. Doesn't sound nearly as fearsome as "Hurricane Humberto" would have, but I suppose we'll get used to it.

CNN Breaking News

By Brendan Loy

Two powerful earthquakes reported in Indonesia with preliminary magnitudes of 7.8 and 8.0. Tsunami alert issued.

UPDATE: There was only one earthquake, according to the USGS, and it had an initial estimated magnitude of 7.9. Details here. This is the second time in the last month that a CNN Breaking News alert has said there were multiple major earthquakes, when in fact there was just one big quake plus aftershocks.

Anyway, an "Indian Ocean-wide tsunami watch" has been issued. "SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY ALREADY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG SOME COASTS." It's pretty much impossible to assess the strength of an active tsunami in the Indian Ocean, though, due to the lack of a comprehensive sensor network. The fact that "a tsunami was generated" could mean some people are in for a world of hurt, or it could mean there'll be a barely noticeable increase in sea level and then things will return to normal. We'll just have to wait and see, and hope and pray it's the latter. Further tsunami bulletins will be posted

It should be noted that a 7.9 quake on the moment magnitude scale would be, if my calculations are correct, approximately 125 times less powerful than the 9.3 magnitude quake that caused the 2004 tsunami. It's a logarithmic scale, y'see, and a steep one at that.

UPDATE 2: CNN is reporting that "[t]he earthquake has triggered a small tsunami."

UPDATE 3: Now the USGS is saying it was an 8.2 quake, which is three times stronger than a 7.9 and "only" 45 times less powerful than the 2004 quake.

However, the head of Indonesia's meteorological agency says there have been no reports of tsunamis. "But we have not withdrawn the tsunami alert until we are certain that the danger has passed."

Hot hot hot! Appalachian is #33

By Brendan Loy

Following up on my previous post about the Associated Press allowing Division I-AA teams into its poll for the first time ever this week: Appalachian State -- victor over the victors valiant, conqueror of the conquering heroes -- is, alas, not ranked. They are, however, in the "others receiving votes" category, right between Auburn and Cincinnati. If you count back from #25, they are effectively ranked #33 in the country. (For the record, Sagarin puts them at #53... just behind #52 UConn, well ahead of both #63 Notre Dame and #69 Michigan.)

And hey, if those hot, hot, hot Mountaineers can keep winning -- they've got Northern Arizona next on the schedule, followed by trips to Wofford and Elon -- maybe they can work their way up into the Top 25 through attrition.

Speaking of which, Rece Davis says that LSU and Oklahoma should be #1 and #2, ahead of USC: "If you're a pollster and those aren't your top two, what you're saying is that your preseason prediction is more important than what you've seen on the field. Unfortunately, too many people seem unable to break that habit."

Anyway, back to Notre Dame and Michigan. They're both in ESPN's Bottom 10 for the second straight week. What an honor! Alas, someone will almost have to ascend out of the rankings this Saturday... and Mike Hart guarantees it'll be the Skunkbears. (Though he may not have used that particular term.)

If the Irish don't improve these offensive statistics, then I'm afraid Hart will be right. However, I'm betting on the Curse of Bo Schembechler to pull us through. Official Fearless BrendanLoy.com Prediction: Notre Dame 6, Michigan 5! (You know our offensive line is totally capable of giving up a safety.)

By the way, the post with the statistics also contains another detailed discussion -- with, you know, facts and stuff -- about the whole "Ty vs. Charlie" debate. Not like that topic isn't already consuming 95% of the (virtual) oxygen in the comment section. :)

The Blue-Gray Sky has a good post, too, about ND's current predicament.

Finally, speaking of predicaments: D'oh! USC has suffered its first season-ending injury, to defensive back Josh Pinkard.

Not antiwar, just... an insane killer

By Brendan Loy

I like Glenn Reynolds, and I think he's usually pretty fair-minded. But to the extent he's being serious with this post, I have to take him to task for it. It reads:

NOT ANTIWAR, just on the other side: "Disturbed anti-war protester can't find soldier, kills civilian with axe instead."

"Not antiwar, just on the other side" is something of a catchphrase, generally used to point out particularly egregious instances of bad behavior by the most radical of the antiwar crowd. For example, giving money to Iraqi insurgents, or chillin' with suicide bombers, or suggesting that coalition soldiers are legitimate targets. In those sorts of cases, it's an appropriate moniker, the point being that these traitorous idiots are claiming the mantle of "antiwar" and if the real, legitimate antiwar crowd -- the loyal opposition -- doesn't want its good name smeared, it should condemn them in no uncertain terms.

In this case, though, I think Glenn has gone rather too far. The story he linked is about an obviously deranged person whose actions clearly have nothing to do with politics and everything to do with either psychological illness or sociopathic evil -- with politics being nothing more than an excuse or a trigger. I'm no psychologist, but that's fairly obvious, isn't it? I mean, he walked into a train station and killed some random guy with an ax. That's not really what I would call a political act. There is no indication that he's involved with any antiwar group, nor that his actions are in any way consistent with others in even the most radical extremes of the antiwar crowd. So I think it's a rather significant stretch to use the "not antiwar, just on the other side" label on this particular story. It would be a bit like saying, nine years ago:

NOT SO PRO-LIFE after all: "Sniper Kills Abortion Doctor Near Buffalo."

That would be highly inappropriate, and so is this. There's some serious guilt-by-association smearing going on here, and I guess I just draw the line at holding political groups (of whatever persuasion) implicitly responsible for the depraved acts of deranged murderers.

Now, in Glenn's defense, maybe he's just having a little fun (albeit with regard to an event that isn't terribly funny, but hey, I like dark humor as much as the next guy) and isn't trying to make a serious point, and I'm reading too much into his post. That's certainly happened to me before, so I can sympathize if that's the case. However, given how he and others have used the phrase "not antiwar, just on the other side" before, I think he needs to be careful, because that phrase means something very specific in the right-blogosphere, and so people are going to assume that's how he's using it in this case too.