Irish Trojan in Tennessee

Another Category 5

By Sean Sullivan

The 8 pm NHC advisory reports that Felix is now a Category 5.  Not unexpected, but it sure happened fast. 

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 
INDICATE THAT FELIX CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY 
STRENGTHEN ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
NEAR 165 MPH... THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA 
IS 934 MB

Felix now a major hurricane

By Brendan Loy

When we left Tim Horton's an hour ago, Brian said, "By the time you get home, Felix will probably be a major hurricane." Well, that was quick.

Minor blog modifications for MGoBlog

By Jay Johnson

The folks at MGoBlog have, ahem, retooled their website.

UPDATE BY BRENDAN: I'm bumping this post to the top of the homepage because I think it's freakin' hilarious, and also to point out that we just passed a car on I-90 with a Michigan bumper sticker on it, whereupon I pointed at it and said, "Ha ha!" :)

Heading home

By Brendan Loy

We just met up with Brian Neudorff, TV meteorologist and fellow weatherblogger, and his wife Trisha and their three adorable boys, at Timmy Ho's in Erie. That was fun. Here's a photo of Brian and me just before we left:

Brian and Trisha are both guestbloggers and commenters here on BrendanLoy.com, so that makes them #5 and #6 on the list of blog-friends we've met in person. :)

Now, we continue en route back to Knoxville... and I'm going to try out Google Maps's new "embed" feature:

View Larger Map

Ooooh, aaaah. :)

When we re-enter the state of Tennessee this evening, I think we'll be there to stay for a while. With my job starting on Tuesday and Becky's pregnancy getting further and further along with each passing day (obviously), this promises to be the end of our recent interstate rambling -- we've been out-of-state for 21 of the last 44 days -- and the beginning of a "calm before the storm" period preceding the baby's birth. Which is perfectly fine with both of us. We've had a great time with our recent travels, but we're both pretty exhausted, and since exhaustion will become a permanent state of being once the baby arrives, we're both keen to be a little bit more laid back these next few months, to take advantage of the opportunity to relax while we still have it. I look forward to many forthcoming weekends of watching college football and not doing 1,400-mile round-trip drives. :)

Felix is a hurricane, and a threat

By Brendan Loy

What with the baby shower, college football's eventful opening Saturday, and hanging out with the SHA girls, I've barely been following Hurricane Felix at all in the last 24 hours. But it is now a hurricane, having attained that status at 8:00 PM -- "going from a tropical depression to a Category 1 hurricane in less than 12 hours," as Eric Berger points out. Felix is likely to continue strengthening: "It’s going to be a bad one," writes Alan Sullivan. "That seems certain now." And it is becoming a major danger to Central America. There also appears to be an increasing chance the storm will eventually work its way into the Gulf of Mexico; both Berger and Sullivan sound concerned about that possibility. (Here's the current forecast track.) That's a long way off, though. Meanwhile, the tropical wave I'm calling "proto-Gabrielle" could become Tropical Depression #7 tomorrow. It, too, could eventually pose a threat, but that's even further off. So just stay tuned, as they say.

UPDATE, 11:30 AM: Welcome, InstaPundit readers! Felix attained Category 2 status overnight, and could be a major hurricane soon. Alan Sullivan and Eric Berger have both posted morning updates; here's an except from Sullivan's post:

Hurricane Felix continued to intensify overnight. ... Top sustained winds in Felix were last reported at 100mph. Central pressure was 983mb, which is not all that low yet. Continued intensification seems likely; explosive intensification is possible. ... [T]here is a strong model consensus on the track to Belize or Yucatan. The potential threat to Texas is diminishing. This storm is running at very low latitude.

But Berger, the Houston Chronicle writer, is unwilling yet to tell his Texas readers that the coast is clear:

Sometime next week the global models suggest a high-pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico -- presently steering Felix on a westerly course -- is forecast to shift to the east. When that happens it will open the door to tropical systems for northward movement. ... [I]f Felix slows down, by the time it reaches the Bay of Campeche it could have a clear shot at moving north toward the Texas coast.

This remains unlikely, and Felix will be significantly weakened after interacting with Belize and/or the Yucatan. And the Bay of Campeche remains cooler because of Dean, so there isn't the potential for explosive strengthening if the system lingers there. Still, we can't ignore the possibility of a well-organized low-pressure system in the Western Gulf by next Friday.

In any event, everyone agrees that Felix is a serious threat to Central America. The official forecast calls for it to reach 145 mph, a strong Cat. 4, by Tuesday morning, at which time it will be near the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua.