Tropics to heat up?

The Atlantic tropics remain preternaturally quiet as we hurtle toward the season's climatological peak on September 10. Alan Sullivan continues to expect a subnormal storm count for the season; indeed, he says "I am beginning to suspect it may be lower than I had dared to hope, when I was bucking the consensus several months ago."

But now there is at least something to talk about, for the first time since Hurricane Dean died out over Mexico: "Invest 94L," a reasonably well-organized tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic. Dr. Jeff Masters says 94L is fighting against dry air, and the reliable computer models don't develop it. On the other hand, the computer models do predict that a currently hypothetical tropical wave in roughly the same area will become a depression later this week:

The UKMET and GFS models are indicating the possible development of a tropical depression by Thursday or Friday off the coast of Africa. There is a large surge of moisture with at least one strong tropical wave embedded in it coming off the coast of Africa this week. This moister air should make a more favorable environment for a tropical depression to form in than the one 94L finds itself in.

Cape Verde storms are always ones to keep an eye on, so this bears watching. Even if there's nothing to actually watch, as of yet. :)

Meanwhile, Eric Berger has posted a cool worldwide map of all tropical systems' tracks since the mid-1800s.